Why aren't you factoring in progression? This team is still young and the core is still improving. An even more established Stutzle, Greig, Sanderson, Pinto and Kleven will absolutely dwarf the regression you are concerned about.
Then there is the progression of the coaching system. This team plays good hockey when it's on, no reason to believe they won't be more consistent next year. In the same vane there is the value of experience. They are still earning how to win and will be better at that key aspect next year, especially after a taste of the playoffs.
Goaltending likely takes a step next year too, even if Forsberg hasn't been that bad.
oh, simply because I don't perceive the Ottawa Senators as a young team anymore, they're probably right there in the middle as of now and will start getting older than the average team soon (18th oldest this seasons using EP)
I still believe in Stutzle as he's still just 23 y/o but next season will also be his 6th season. MacKinnon started almost a year younger and broke out in his 5th season. Sanderson is 22 and it will be his 4th season but we can still expect progression. Greig will also continue to progress but what do you expect? I don't see more than an elite 3rd liner. Same with Pinto who will be 25 y/o. As for Kleven, what do we expect? I don't see any offensive potential, do you expect a Top-4 guy?
The concerns were raised years ago while some were just salivating at this team's potential. The reality is we couldn't afford to have Pierre Dorion as a GM much longer but it happened and the results are that today, there's limited internal progression potential. The progression has to come from other ways, i.e. mostly Staios work (and Alfie knows how much they have to revamp the drafting dept)
I was super excited for this team after the 2020 draft, even claiming on the mainboards that this team had the best future in the league, arguing with some ferocious Devils and Wings fans. But then I saw Dorion work as another phase of the rebuild started and how he spent the money available. I thought that maybe we were still tanking but lol we picked Tyler freaking Boucher with the 10th overall pick so it was confirmed that Dorion had no idea what he was doing (which frankly, started with the Zibanejad trade). And then we bled for 3 more years...
While some pansies on this board call me a Habs fan because I was among the firsts to realize that their future outlook was trending very well (and it's materializing now even though I thought it'd be more next season), there's some people on this planet who are able to call a cat a cat. Sorry if I can. Most of my "crazy takes" happen in the real world.
Nick Jensen is not a candidate for regression in my eyes. He is such an excellent skater and so smart that age alone at a young 35 (September) is not destined to tank him. I won't say he is as efficient with his play as Giordano but he isn't far off.
Oduya was an even better skater but he still hit a wall at 35 y/o. We don't know when it's going to happen for Jensen but one thing certain is that he doesn't have many years in front of him, he's a stop gap.
And we have no cap concerns. It will be more than $7M for five spots (your numbers are inflated) and two of those will be Halliday/Crookshank and Merrilainen on ELC's. Bargain hunting for 3 players on $5M +, one of them being a #7 D (if we don't promote Sebrango), isn't a bad situation.
You think 8 M$ for Giroux and Zetterlund is inflated? 3 M$ for both Kleven and Matinpalo, inflated?
I know there is no "cap concerns" as we can fill the rest of the lineup for cheap, but the POINT was that there's no cap space to sign a Sam Bennett for example (well, if that was possible) or maybe if we let go Giroux like I mentioned.
On top of all that there is the Steve Staios factor. We now have a GM who can improve the team out of nowhere.
You're making a mountain out of a molehill if you think Giroux, Perron and Jensen's regressions are going to make us worse next year. It's either that they won't regress as much as you think or we can easily mitigate that possibility with progress in other areas.
lol "
mountain out of a molehill"... This is what I said :
"
No choice to give it away this year… and yes we could easily regress next season. All of Giroux, Perron and Jensen will be older, we have no cap space and no prospect pool"
I was replying to a poster who said "
we're nowhere near a guarantee to make the playoffs next year". All I said is pure cold straight facts...
- All of Giroux, Perron and Jensen will be older : true or not?
- We have no cap space : as I just explained to IMPROVE the team, true or not?
- We have no prospect pool : true or not?
Personally, my hopes rest almost entirely on the shoulders of Staios and what moves he will continue to pull. And then on Stutzle and Sanderson and how impactful they can become.
There has never been a guarantee of anything in sports, that's why they play the games.
