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2023-24 Senators Prospect Watch

BondraTime said:
Man

That isn’t even what’s being discussed :laugh:

We are talking about a known quantity, stars in the NHL. Of those, 95+% were the “alpha” (the term used) guys on their teams and leagues. We aren’t saying that being a star in junior means you’ll have success in the NHL, that was just you misunderstanding things.
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I said that. I started the discussion. Being a star in junior doesn’t mean you will be a star later. But if you’re a star in the NHL you were very very very very likely a big star in junior
 
BondraTime said:
Yak scored a fantastic goal, his patented drive from the point up boards to the center of the ice

Assist was a dump in that Saskatoon missed from the other side of center
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In addition to his goal, he had another similar chance earlier in the game where he came down off the point, cut across, but just didn't finish.

He finished with a goal, an assist and plus 3, but he didn't really play any differently than he did the night before. It was the same conservative approach, with flashes of offence only when the opportunity was good and the risk was low.
 
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Senator Stanley said:
In addition to his goal, he had another similar chance earlier in the game where he came down off the point, cut across, but just didn't finish.

He finished with a goal, an assist and plus 3, but he didn't really play any differently than he did the night before. It was the same conservative approach, with flashes of offence only when the opportunity was good and the risk was low.
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He was very steady, though I missed the 3rd period

Lethbridge are pretty bad offensively, 2nd last in the playoffs for goals, so should be a good matchup for Calgary (should that be who they end up playing)
 
Calgary only gave up 6 goals in 4 games. Yakemchuk had 3 points and was a +4 while playing on the shutdown pair with Hurtig, all while taking 0 penalty minutes.

You may think Parekh is the runaway better talent and a surefire star—and you might be absolutely right.
But also keep in mind: Saginaw gave up 8 goals in Game 1, 9 goals in Game 2, and 2 goals in Game 3, for a total of 19 goals in 3 games. Parekh has 6 points, is a -1, and has 10 minutes in penalties over those three games. I haven’t watched him in the playoffs and am purely stat-watching, but I’ve seen enough this season to know he’ll need to radically alter his play to become successful in the NHL.

Staios was intimately involved in picking Yakemchuk. He has proven to be a shrewd and calculating GM, exceeding my expectations. He evaluated all the available defensemen and decided Yakemchuk was the piece to help make this team a winner. I’ve watched Yakemchuk transform into a very good two-way defender on a team that really lacks scoring depth and overall talent. Their 2nd and 3rd lines are filled with players getting very limited production:
  • 2nd Line: Gorzynski (42 points) / Hvidston (58 points) / Moore (36 points)
  • 3rd Line: Birnie (7 points in 33 games) / Adazynski (30 points) / Wetsch (52 points)
Every guy is well below a point-per-game pace. If you look at London, for instance, players like Blake Montgomery or Halttunen would easily be the 4th-best offensive forward on Calgary—and they’re both on London’s 3rd line. London has a player on their 4th line with 40 points. London, on most nights, is like a stacked Canadian World Junior Championship team playing the weakest squad in the tournament. The overall talent gap is that large, especially when you get to the 4th forward and 3rd defenseman.
 
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Ohh I am glad others are watching - You can see he is not the same player he was last season. He has totally transformed himself. I am curious, now that people have watched him play - are you nervous about him? Do you think his hockey sense and skating will hold up in the NHL?
 
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Sens in Process said:
Ohh I am glad others are watching - You can see he is not the same player he was last season. He has totally transformed himself. I am curious, now that people have watched him play - are you nervous about him? Do you think his hockey sense and skating will hold up in the NHL?
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Definitely nervous; not for him to be an NHLer, that's guarenteed, nervous for what he will ultimately become

Jumping up to men is going to be a stark, stark contrast, as it is for every guy, but for Yak I think it's going to face a much larger hill to get to what we hope he can become

I think his game is going to have the largest hurdles to reach his percieved potentrial, as I think his skating is very weak for the pro game, and coupled with questionable decsion making under pressure is going to be amplified even more when playing against men who are able to pressure him. Calgary is helping every single guy defensively, just like London and Saginaw are offensively.
 
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BondraTime said:
Definitely nervous; not for him to be an NHLer that's guarenteed, nervous for what he will ultimately become

Jumping up to men is going to be a stark, stark contrast, as it is for every guy, but for Yak I think it's going to

I think his game is going to have the largest hurdles to reach his percieved potentrial, as I think his skating is very weak for the pro game, and coupled with questionable decsion making under pressure is going to be amplified even more when playing against men who are able to pressure him rather than in the stingiest system in the CHL.
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Small sample size, but funny enough, he looked great against men in Sens training camp/preseason. As I said when he was drafted, he was drafted for his tools, not necessarily how far ahead he was in the prospect scoring list. From what I have heard/read, he is developing the brains for the game, playing more conservative. The lack of offence, for a supposed offensive d-man, is a cause for concern, but overall I think the tools are there to develop him into top-4 defenceman. He has the size, skills and skating, the mental side of things (determination/motor/IQ) will continue to develop.

Yak is a nice project, with tremendous potential. The Sens scouting see him contributing in the NHL once he has gained full maturity, while jury is out on him, Dickinson, and Parekh to see who will succeed more against NHL players/men.
 
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Sens in Process said:
Ohh I am glad others are watching - You can see he is not the same player he was last season. He has totally transformed himself. I am curious, now that people have watched him play - are you nervous about him? Do you think his hockey sense and skating will hold up in the NHL?
Click to expand...

I've watched most of his last five games, and I'm still nervous, basically for the same reasons I was at the draft. I worry he's a tweener at the NHL level, where the offensive talent isn't special enough to play his natural style of offensive defenceman, and the defensive game isn't strong enough to be more than a second pairing RHD who you never really trust, but who has a career because of his size, physicality, pedigree and a scarcity of decent right-shot defenceman.

Different players with different strengths and weaknesses - this is not meant as an exact comparison - but I'm reminded of Cody Ceci in terms of role and trajectory. Now, if he turns into a less athletic, more cerebral Cody Ceci, is that a bad outcome for 7OA? It's hard to call it that when Ceci is pushing 900 games. But it's not particularly exciting, either.

My hope is that we'll look back on this season as him learning how to play defence - something he's never been asked to do before - and that as he keeps developing he'll figure out how to combine his offensive traits with a solid defensive foundation. If he can do that, he could be a hell of a player.
 
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I am concerned about his offensive play. He started off well and was on pace for about thirty goals, but then something just turned off. I think he only scored a handful of goals over the second half of the season.
He was dealing with a lower-body injury, constantly falling down and laboring to get back up around January. This eventually led to him being shut down for several games. Injury problems cannot fully explain his drop in points though.

I do believe there is a "Calgary tax" in terms of offensive production for their top offensive defensemen, with a drop-off of about 15 to 20 points compared to a standard team.

His skating—more specifically his first two or three strides—is my biggest concern. He has a big frame, and if he can get stronger and more assertive with those initial steps, I can see him turning into a force in the NHL. If he can elevate his skating to the level of Mantipalo, he’ll be more than fine.
 
armani said:
Small sample size, but funny enough, he looked great against men in Sens training camp/preseason. As I said when he was drafted, he was drafted for his tools, not necessarily how far ahead he was in the prospect scoring list. From what I have heard/read, he is developing the brains for the game, playing more conservative. The lack of offence, for a supposed offensive d-man, is a cause for concern, but overall I think the tools are there to develop him into top-4 defenceman. He has the size, skills and skating, the mental side of things (determination/motor/IQ) will continue to develop.

Yak is a nice project, with tremendous potential. The Sens scouting see him contributing in the NHL once he has gained full maturity, while jury is out on him, Dickinson, and Parekh to see who will succeed more against NHL players/men.
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I don't take anything away from the preseason, but that may just be a problem with my views

I've said many times I wasn't worried about his scoring, albiet it was a poor season statistically. I wasn't expecting an offensively dominent year, as I never thought he was an offensively dominent guy. I'm fully looking at what I project in the pro game. I said before the year I was hoping for ~ppg for 70ish points, he wasn't too far off that kind of a pace. Ending the year with 2 goals and 7 assists in the last 20 games was a pretty rough way to end the regular season, which was definitely worrying, but offensively at the next level I'd hope for a 30-35 point guy, anything else is gravy. His statistics in the W this year have nothing to do with what I’m projecting for him in my opinion.

I'm worried about what I think is the most important tool in his skating, and his toolbox with his decision making. Two of the things I'd place the most value on for a prospect. I think his skarting is going to get him into trouble, and I think things can spiral from there

He's got unbelievable skill, size, physicality and meanness and shot.
 
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BondraTime said:
I don't take anything away from the preseason, but that may just be a problem with my views

I've said many times I wasn't worried about his scoring, albiet it was a poor season statistically. I wasn't expecting an offensively dominent year, as I never thought he was an offensively dominent guy. I'm fully looking at what I project in the pro game. I said before the year I was hoping for ~ppg for 70ish points, he wasn't too far off that kind of a pace. Ending the year with 2 goals and 7 assists in the last 20 games was a pretty rough way to end the regular season, which was definitely worrying, but offensively at the next level I'd hope for a 30-35 point guy, anything else is gravy. His statistics in the W this year have nothing to do with what I’m projecting for him in my opinion.

I'm worried about what I think is the most important tool in his skating, and his toolbox with his decision making. Two of the things I'd place the most value on for a prospect. I think his skarting is going to get him into trouble, and I think things can spiral from there

He's got unbelievable skill, size, physicality and meanness and shot.
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He's going to be an interesting one to watch.

Did not test well in the fitness stuff... is that because he is naturally not athletic, or is it because he just doesn't train the right way/enough.

Skating is seen as a problem, is it mechanics that can be fixed, or is it something that will stick with him over his entire career?

Defensive play has been questionable. Is it because he's trying to do too much offensively, or a symptom of his skating? Or is it a decision making issue that will linger.

He is far from being a finished product, which is part of why he's so exciting to me, I thought in preseason he showed very well, and the comments from staff seemed to key in on his eagerness to learn and get better.

Idk what the best comparable is for him, I've seen Burns and Chychrun, but he doesn't have their skating. Phaneuf seems like a potential comparable, but he was more polished defensively
 
I am surprised that people aren’t feeling more confident in his overall hockey sense. I certainly agree that the margin of error is intensified because he can’t get back as fast. But in the course of a game, he makes a lot of smart, simple plays. His skating—I get it. But no one is going to say that some of the criticisms of his hockey sense were overblown?

And even though Mynio has been heralded as a solid defender and played quite well in the WJC, I find his duo with Parker gets trapped often in the defensive zone. The coach frequently pairs Parker/Mynio with the number one line and Yakemchuk and Hurtig with line 2 or 3. Yakemchuk/Hurtig as the shutdown pair has been a fairly interesting development. It was tried earlier in the season, briefly, and it didn't work because of the overkill of two heavy footed rangy guys, but it works now.
 
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Sens in Process said:
Calgary only gave up 6 goals in 4 games. Yakemchuk had 3 points and was a +4 while playing on the shutdown pair with Hurtig, all while taking 0 penalty minutes.

You may think Parekh is the runaway better talent and a surefire star—and you might be absolutely right.
But also keep in mind: Saginaw gave up 8 goals in Game 1, 9 goals in Game 2, and 2 goals in Game 3, for a total of 19 goals in 3 games. Parekh has 6 points, is a -1, and has 10 minutes in penalties over those three games. I haven’t watched him in the playoffs and am purely stat-watching, but I’ve seen enough this season to know he’ll need to radically alter his play to become successful in the NHL.

Staios was intimately involved in picking Yakemchuk. He has proven to be a shrewd and calculating GM, exceeding my expectations. He evaluated all the available defensemen and decided Yakemchuk was the piece to help make this team a winner. I’ve watched Yakemchuk transform into a very good two-way defender on a team that really lacks scoring depth and overall talent. Their 2nd and 3rd lines are filled with players getting very limited production:
  • 2nd Line: Gorzynski (42 points) / Hvidston (58 points) / Moore (36 points)
  • 3rd Line: Birnie (7 points in 33 games) / Adazynski (30 points) / Wetsch (52 points)
Every guy is well below a point-per-game pace. If you look at London, for instance, players like Blake Montgomery or Halttunen would easily be the 4th-best offensive forward on Calgary—and they’re both on London’s 3rd line. London has a player on their 4th line with 40 points. London, on most nights, is like a stacked Canadian World Junior Championship team playing the weakest squad in the tournament. The overall talent gap is that large, especially when you get to the 4th forward and 3rd defenseman.
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Sam Dickinson's style is very suited for the juniors. He's not a particularly intelligent player who is very fast and defensively responsible. He's essentially a less intelligent Sanderson.
 
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