2023-24 Senators Prospect Watch

[Xspyrit]

this is a meaningless statement, had you chose to compare Dacoord and Sogaard in 2020 to Sogaard and Marilainen today (5+6 vs 14+19) you'd still be comparing position in the rankings and nothing more. If your only purpose was to show that 2020 we also had two goalies ranked consecutively, why would you say it was pretty telling? Telling about what? Unless you are trying to suggest those goalies were similar caliber, it tells us nothing to know where they were ranked relative to their respective draft years.

ok so if you want to decide what my intentions were, go ahead I guess. I already stated what my intention was. I was looking at the ranking from 2020, saw where Sogaard and Gustavsson were voted and decided to mention it in a post I was already making. I didn't even notice Daccord as I didn't even read the whole list. When I saw the 2 consecutive goalie prospects ranked (you know, my brain made a quick link with Sogaard/Merilainen this year), I went right away to finish my post and clicked "saved" as I was editing. There was really nothing more than that, but if you want to believe there was, I am not going to stop you lol

And what I mean by "telling", since I already told you in the post you quoted that "I was overall as high on Sogaard/Gustavsson in December 2020 than I am on Sogaard/Merilainen right now", is that (IMO of course) IF we had the same pool quality as back then, I could see Sogaard/Merilainen voted in the late teens instead of 5/6... You don't have to agree with that

Note : to specify, before being accused of bullshiting (this is internet after all!), I was quite higher on Sogaard than I am today. I am bit higher on Merilainen now than I was on Gustvasson (but then much higher on Gus after his 2020-21 season)

 

[aragorn]

Please find me a team that dilapidated even close to as much asset wealth as we did between the 2020 draft and today. Or even just 50%



Thank you, this is the perfect way to demonstrate it

We also lost a 3rd and 7th from dumping 75% of Murray's contract.

We also traded good top-9 forwards in Nick Paul, Connor Brown and Mathieu Joseph for just 2nd + 4th minus a 3rd (to dump Joseph). We also used that 2nd round pick in the trade to acquire Chychrun. Only thing we have left from trading a whole 3rd line that could be very good IMO (Joseph-Paul-Brown) is Blake Montgomery that we picked with Tampa's pick. Hopefully he becomes a good player

The thing is we could go farther than that and start listing the picks wasted away on Stepan (2nd), Hamonic (3rd), Josh Brown (4th), etc.

There is absolutely NOTHING NORMAL about how this rebuild was handled. It was a PURE SABOTAGE

I explained perfectly well what happened between 2021 to date, you choose not to understand it. Every deadline team at some point going into the playoffs have traded away first rd picks to teams not in the playoffs for their better older players because they hope to have a deep playoff run. It happens every yr. It's obvious. Dorion tried to improve the team by trading away1st rd picks in 2022 & 2023 & it failed & hurt the team, that's the explanation, we all know this. It doesn't need to be constantly repeated, we get it. You hate the Boucher pick, but it's not the fault of the scouts his career has been derailed by injuries, you can't predict that yet you view it as a failure of the draft. Just like you can't predict when a prospect selected in a lower rd turns into a player who looking back should have been taken in the 1st rd such as Pinto, Formenton & Batherson. The more elite players you have the less money you have to fill out the rest of the roster with quality players.

Tkachuk, Stutzle & Sanderson are this team's elite players all making $8 mil. Norris had an elite season with 35 goals, but got derailed with injuries after signing his almost $8 mil deal, that's just bad luck. Batherson was having an elite season until Buff goalie took him out & it's taken him a full season to get back to looking like he could be very good again. Pinto & Greig seem to look like they have high ceilings. The nucleus of this team is still quite young & should be around for a number of yrs allowing the drafting to improve the prospect pool. Ott doesn't need the prospect pool to be great right now, the players graduating are filling the holes at the bottom of the order now.

Now let's look at the future. Yakemchuk could be a very good player in a couple of yrs. IMO Kleven, Ostapchuk & maybe Halliday could improve this team this yr. Petersson, Boucher, Merilainen, Donovan, Eliasson, Sogaard or Andonovski all could be decent players or assets. If they all make the NHl that's 11 players within our prospect pool with NHL potential, that's not terrible. We could even get lucky & a few more outside the top 10 could have NHL potential, who knows, cup half full. They may not be elite, but they could fill a role which helps the team overall be better & successful & that's what we want. And as this team is improving so will their prospect pool, it just takes time.

 

[Loach]

I explained perfectly well what happened between 2021 to date, you choose not to understand it. Every deadline team at some point going into the playoffs have traded away first rd picks to teams not in the playoffs for their better older players because they hope to have a deep playoff run. It happens every yr. It's obvious. Dorion tried to improve the team by trading away1st rd picks in 2022 & 2023 & it failed & hurt the team, that's the explanation, we all know this. It doesn't need to be constantly repeated, we get it. You hate the Boucher pick, but it's not the fault of the scouts his career has been derailed by injuries, you can't predict that yet you view it as a failure of the draft. Just like you can't predict when a prospect selected in a lower rd turns into a player who looking back should have been taken in the 1st rd such as Pinto, Formenton & Batherson. The more elite players you have the less money you have to fill out the rest of the roster with quality players.

Tkachuk, Stutzle & Sanderson are this team's elite players all making $8 mil. Norris had an elite season with 35 goals, but got derailed with injuries after signing his almost $8 mil deal, that's just bad luck. Batherson was having an elite season until Buff goalie took him out & it's taken him a full season to get back to looking like he could be very good again. Pinto & Greig seem to look like they have high ceilings. The nucleus of this team is still quite young & should be around for a number of yrs allowing the drafting to improve the prospect pool. Ott doesn't need the prospect pool to be great right now, the players graduating are filling the holes at the bottom of the order now.

Now let's look at the future. Yakemchuk could be a very good player in a couple of yrs. IMO Kleven, Ostapchuk & maybe Halliday could improve this team this yr. Petersson, Boucher, Merilainen, Donovan, Eliasson, Sogaard or Andonovski all could be decent players or assets. If they all make the NHl that's 11 players within our prospect pool with NHL potential, that's not terrible. We could even get lucky & a few more outside the top 10 could have NHL potential, who knows, cup half full. They may not be elite, but they could fill a role which helps the team overall be better & successful & that's what we want. And as this team is improving so will their prospect pool, it just takes time.

You have a bunch of big, tough, hard to play against, will fight players in the system, that have a 3rd line/3rd pairing ceiling. Just be happy with that. It's your wheelhouse. Just let it be. Dorion fckd the rebuild. Don't pretend he didn't, or say other teams do similar things, don't normalize. Not many GMs in the history of the NHL were as bad as Dorion. It souldn't be put in a box and hidden in the attic either, while people are throwing shade at the new people in charge trying to clean up the mess. We still have a 1rst round pick to turn in too...

 

[Ouroboros]

I don't think it's accurate to attribute all of Tyler Boucher's issues since being drafted to injury. Clearly the injuries haven't helped matters, but it's a fact that he hasn't produced at a level that is indicative of substantial NHL upside.

He washed out of the NCAA after putting up 3 points in 17 games, and then he went to the OHL where he posted 31 points in 45 games over two partial seasons marred by injury and suspensions. That's the sort of progress - or lack thereof - you might expect to see from a guy drafted in the middle or later rounds, not 10th overall. It's just really difficult to find more than a handful of prospects with a junior/NCAA arc like this who ended up being NHL players.

Where do we think Boucher is going to check into the prospects poll running right now? Clearly not in the top-10. I have him as Ottawa's 19th best prospect on my personal list.

When it comes to prospect pools in general, I think people tend to overestimate the likelihood of getting players from them. I've been looking back at the past rankings and it's really interesting to see how many of these highly touted players never go on to establish an NHL career of any note. Look at the top 10 from 2016 alone...

1. Thomas Chabot
2. Logan Brown [bust]
3. Colin White [bust]
4. Francis Perron [bust]
5. Nick Paul
6. Jonathan Dahlen [bust]
7. Andreas Englund
8. Gabriel Gagne [bust]
9. Marcus Hogberg [bust]
10. Christian Jaros [bust]

So even when it looks pretty decent on paper the success rate is low. So when it looks grim on paper - as it does now - it's probably actually even worse than we think.

 

[aragorn]

You need high end talent to win and then good bottom 6/bottom pairing players to thrive.

I agree that we have a bunch of players that look like they fill the complimentary players required, but we have no star power (that we know of) waiting in the wings.

We have been rebuilding for years, with high draft positions, and don't have anything in the last 3 years to show for it. I disagree on Boucher - it wasn't just injuries, and if it was, it goes back to before the draft.

Look at his numbers for his junior career, there is nothing to indicate he could be successful at the NHL level relative to a 10th overall pick. Injuries have hampered his development, but he couldn't cut it in college and wasn't doing all that great in the OHL. That said, he may still end up an energy guy for us, if he can get medical clearance.

We have young high end talent & because of that high end talent there is only so much money to go around to pay for it. How many more $8 mil players can this team afford? How many high end talent do teams have? What is the number? There are 20 players that get dressed & they have to be under the salary cap & because of that you need players at different levels of salary. The key is to find the best players at the best prices who can fit together to make a good structured team.

Deconstructing a team & rebuilding a team take yrs, it doesn't happen from one season to the next, it takes yrs to move on from one set of players & build a competing team from another younger set of players. We don't have anything from the last three yrs because the GM thought to trade away those picks for players that he thought would improve the team & it failed, we all know this. DBC & Chychrun were very good players who were highly valued that didn't work out here & that cost us dearly, that's on Dorion. Did you know Boucher was going to be hurt as often as he was? Nobody did. Boucher was not picked for his numbers, he was picked for his style of physical play which the scouting staff valued higher than you do & recognized that was missing from their group. Looking at their prospect pool today they have a good number of prospects who could fill holes in their lineup within the price they need to fit under the cap.

 

[aragorn]

You have a bunch of big, tough, hard to play against, will fight players in the system, that have a 3rd line/3rd pairing ceiling. Just be happy with that. It's your wheelhouse. Just let it be. Dorion fckd the rebuild. Don't pretend he didn't, or say other teams do similar things, don't normalize. Not many GMs in the history of the NHL were as bad as Dorion. It souldn't be put in a box and hidden in the attic either, while people are throwing shade at the new people in charge trying to clean up the mess. We still have a 1rst round pick to turn in too...

Agreed Dorion is at fault, but at the same time they have high end talent on their roster. How many $8 mil players can they afford to have in their lineup? We have to consider the salary cap & no team has high end talent on every line or every pairing. The key is to get the best players you can afford in those other positions & Ott IMO has a good number of prospects who might be able to fill those spots over time given their high end talent is still young & will be here for a while yet. Some other teams are just further ahead in this process that every team goes through & we can see that Boston & Tampa are starting to age out. & will soon be going through the same process.

 

[Loach]

Agreed Dorion is at fault, but at the same time they have high end talent on their roster. How many $8 mil players can they afford to have in their lineup? We have to consider the salary cap & no team has high end talent on every line or every pairing. The key is to get the best players you can afford in those other positions & Ott IMO has a good number of prospects who might be able to fill those spots over time given their high end talent is still young & will be here for a while yet. Some other teams are just further ahead in this process that every team goes through & we can see that Boston & Tampa are starting to age out. & will soon be going through the same process.

You don't draft players you can afford. You draft the best guy. Regardless of position. Trade guys if you have to for what you need or to keep the prospect pool full later. Talent. Talent and assets. That's what you need. Not just signed at 8m but on entry level contracts. For a guy who goes to dev camp you don't value talent or depth. It's odd.

 

[OD99]

We have young high end talent & because of that high end talent there is only so much money to go around to pay for it. How many more $8 mil players can this team afford? How many high end talent do teams have? What is the number? There are 20 players that get dressed & they have to be under the salary cap & because of that you need players at different levels of salary. The key is to find the best players at the best prices who can fit together to make a good structured team.

Deconstructing a team & rebuilding a team take yrs, it doesn't happen from one season to the next, it takes yrs to move on from one set of players & build a competing team from another younger set of players. We don't have anything from the last three yrs because the GM thought to trade away those picks for players that he thought would improve the team & it failed, we all know this. DBC & Chychrun were very good players who were highly valued that didn't work out here & that cost us dearly, that's on Dorion. Did you know Boucher was going to be hurt as often as he was? Nobody did. Boucher was not picked for his numbers, he was picked for his style of physical play which the scouting staff valued higher than you do & recognized that was missing from their group. Looking at their prospect pool today they have a good number of prospects who could fill holes in their lineup within the price they need to fit under the cap.

I value toughness as much as anyone, but you don't pick a guy at 10th overall because you think he can hit.

You pick a guy 10th overall that can be a game changer and offensive catalyst.

As far as skill, you need a constant stream of skilled players so while you are paying the $8M to established vets, you have players on the ELC or at least RFA money to supplement.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

When you finish where the Sens have over these years .. you are bound to have some high end talent on your team. The prospect pool should not be so depleted is the point people have raised and there are not good arguments to defend why they are the way they are.

Its so easy to just look at the drafts that were directly under Dorion from 2015 and the mistakes jump off the page.

Dorion's only successful year was with a roster inherited from Bryan Murray .. his 1st move when he took over still has a lot of stink on it.

Oh and I was reminded when I looked at the records; of trading away our top 10 protected 1st and missing out on a top 4 pick in 2019. Another Dorion blunder that goes beyond a simple mistake. The man was just horrendous in every facet.

Staios et al have a very tough job to to try to straighten this out. I think they have made some tough decisions but they should help. Remember this young talented group had virtually no quality leadership through the rebuild, and had a coach that was a cheer leader, their bud and had very little 2 way, defensive consciousness in his repertoire to teach them.. They were clearly behind in that area and likely still are.

The amateur scouting left over by Dorion also needs a major overhaul. New blood at the top and in the ranks.

 

[Ice-Tray]

We need some minor moves to fire up the subject matter in here!

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1816881171440996535

 

[Micklebot]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1816881171440996535

Did I take a wrong turn somewhere???

 

[Ouroboros]

Guess this is just the Habs board now.

 

[aragorn]

I value toughness as much as anyone, but you don't pick a guy at 10th overall because you think he can hit.

You pick a guy 10th overall that can be a game changer and offensive catalyst.

As far as skill, you need a constant stream of skilled players so while you are paying the $8M to established vets, you have players on the ELC or at least RFA money to supplement.

Such a simplistic view, he does more than hit. They want guys that are hard to play against & think of what that entails. People argued with me that Tom Wilson was just a 4th line goon, is that what he turned into? Is Lawson Crouse a 4th line goon as well that people said in his draft yr? Hitting breaks up offensive plays, it stops scoring chances, most people don't give that any value. Is Tkachuk a 4th line player? How many on here did not want to draft him? I'm not against skill, I'm for a balanced approach that has a little of everything on a team, not the same thing in every position, we have plenty of skill. And over time we will have more in the prospect pool.

Fighting with players for puck possession is difficult & takes strength & again most people think very little about that, but winning puck possession gains offensive possession & prevents another offensive possession & scoring chance. It doesn't take that much imagination to view players that are hard to play against & how they help teams win by reducing scoring chances by the way they play. This team needs to prevent scoring chances & be harder to play against, it's one of the things Staois is trying to correct. Big hits turn games around as we saw that when Boro was here, it puts fear into players heads. Chris Neil turned games around with hits & fights, McGratton dropping Domi in a fight & changed the perception of the team. These guys have a lot more value than people give them, but most coaches know that & love them for it.

 

[OD99]

Such a simplistic view, he does more than hit. They want guys that are hard to play against & think of what that entails. People argued with me that Tom Wilson was just a 4th line goon, is that what he turned into? Is Lawson Crouse a 4th line goon as well that people said in his draft yr? Hitting breaks up offensive plays, it stops scoring chances, most people don't give that any value. Is Tkachuk a 4th line player? How many on here did not want to draft him? I'm not against skill, I'm for a balanced approach that has a little of everything on a team, not the same thing in every position, we have plenty of skill. And over time we will have more in the prospect pool.

Fighting with players for puck possession is difficult & takes strength & again most people think very little about that, but winning puck possession gains offensive possession & prevents another offensive possession & scoring chance. It doesn't take that much imagination to view players that are hard to play against & how they help teams win by reducing scoring chances by the way they play. This team needs to prevent scoring chances & be harder to play against, it's one of the things Staois is trying to correct. Big hits turn games around as we saw that when Boro was here, it puts fear into players heads. Chris Neil turned games around with hits & fights, McGratton dropping Domi in a fight & changed the perception of the team. These guys have a lot more value than people give them, but most coaches know that & love them for it.

None of what you wrote has any bearing on Boucher and taking him at 10th overall.

You continue to bring up Wilson, and it makes me wonder about your evaluations. Wilson was one of the toughest players in the league from the moment he started in the OHL. He was a physical specimen, who also ended up producing points.

Crouse also put up points and is a fair bit bigger than Boucher.

The type of player you describe, outside of Wilson and Crouse, are 3rd and 4th line guys. Not guys you draft top 10.

Boucher did squat to show he deserved to be picked where he was and it has looked worse and worse since his draft day. He couldn't hack it against older competitors in college and then didn't jump out when he got to play against teenagers in Ottawa.

Bad pick from the get-go.

 

[Loach]

None of what you wrote has any bearing on Boucher and taking him at 10th overall.

You continue to bring up Wilson, and it makes me wonder about your evaluations. Wilson was one of the toughest players in the league from the moment he started in the OHL. He was a physical specimen, who also ended up producing points.

Crouse also put up points and is a fair bit bigger than Boucher.

The type of player you describe, outside of Wilson and Crouse, are 3rd and 4th line guys. Not guys you draft top 10.

Boucher did squat to show he deserved to be picked where he was and it has looked worse and worse since his draft day. He couldn't hack it against older competitors in college and then didn't jump out when he got to play against teenagers in Ottawa.

Bad pick from the get-go.

You're just starting to wonder about his evaluations now?! Lol. I would 100% have aragorn on my scouting staff, he just wouldn't get final say on any picks.

 

[Icelevel]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1816881171440996535

Montreal typical overhype and overexcite. Let’s see how they do on the ice.

 

[Butchy Dakkar]

Montreal typical overhype and overexcite. Let’s see how they do on the ice.

Pretty sure I’ve been guilty of that haha

Senators have turned me into a “let’s wait and see” cynic

 

[aragorn]

None of what you wrote has any bearing on Boucher and taking him at 10th overall.

You continue to bring up Wilson, and it makes me wonder about your evaluations. Wilson was one of the toughest players in the league from the moment he started in the OHL. He was a physical specimen, who also ended up producing points.

Crouse also put up points and is a fair bit bigger than Boucher.

The type of player you describe, outside of Wilson and Crouse, are 3rd and 4th line guys. Not guys you draft top 10.

Boucher did squat to show he deserved to be picked where he was and it has looked worse and worse since his draft day. He couldn't hack it against older competitors in college and then didn't jump out when he got to play against teenagers in Ottawa.

Bad pick from the get-go.

Both Wilson & Crouse were called 4th line goons in their draft yr by numerous people on this site who said you don't pick players like that in the first rd & time & time again they are proven wrong. Injuries derailed Boucher's career, nobody knows how he would have turned out & developed if he was not injured.

 

[BondraTime]

Both Wilson & Crouse were called 4th line goons in their draft yr by numerous people on this site who said you don't pick players like that in the first rd & time & time again they are proven wrong. Injuries derailed Boucher's career, nobody knows how he would have turned out & developed if he was not injured.

Wilson and Crouse aren’t remotely similar players to Boucher though.

 

[Sens in Process]

Moldenyk and Yakemchuk paired together

Mynio and and Bonk, and Chadwick and Parehk are the other pairs for team red.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1817988240638697932

 

[aragorn]

Wilson and Crouse aren’t remotely similar players to Boucher though.

I never said they were, what I was implying was all the people that had preconceived ideas that both Crouse & Wilson were 4th line goon players who should not have been picked in the first rd. Looking back, I doubt their is a single team now that would not pick them if given another chance in the first rd.

Scouts are wrong all the time & miss on 18 yr old prospects trying to forecast what they will be by the time they make it to the NHl, if they ever do. Joey Dacoord was the last player taken in his draft yr, today I would take him over all our goalie prospects. The draft is an educated guess at best once you get past about the first top 10 & even then there are still plenty of mistakes made.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Good Article in support of analytics. Basically the more information the better to hopefully help make better decisions.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1817953236080525377

I am not sure we can know the catalogue of possible stats that come out of the leading companies doing this. They are selling the same concept. We don't get enough info from public sites. I think its clear you have to have someone in your hockey ops that has expertise in that area.

 

[BoardsofCanada]

No prospect challenge this September?

Buffalo and Jersey are doing a head to head in Buffalo.
T.O. and MTL are doing a head to head in Montreal.

No announcement from Ottawa's organization yet. I don't think they're participating this year. I'm bummed; this was a tradition for me. I haven't missed one in ten years.

 

[StoicSensFan]

No prospect challenge this September?

Buffalo and Jersey are doing a head to head in Buffalo.
T.O. and MTL are doing a head to head in Montreal.

No announcement from Ottawa's organization yet. I don't think they're participating this year. I'm bummed; this was a tradition for me. I haven't missed one in ten years.

Yeah we're going. Kinda weird that it's not easy to find at all.

Sabres announce 2024 Prospects Challenge schedule | Buffalo Sabres

Six teams will face off for the tournament at LECOM Harborcenter starting Sept. 13.

www.nhl.com