2023-24 Senators Prospect Watch

[Good in Osgoode]

Good to see Reidler doing well, but he's still young & still a long way to go.

If he was drafted in 2022, do they have to sign him to an ELC before the 2024 draft to retain his rights?

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

If he was drafted in 2022, do they have to sign him to an ELC before the 2024 draft to retain his rights?

Nah, he is going to UNO next year and then we technically have 4yrs to sign him, I believe, although he will be eligible to test FA after 3 years. That might be slightly off, someone else would know better than me, but it's something along those lines.

 

[aragorn]

Zack Ostapchuk C/LW

 

[Wallet Inspector]

I like Ostapchuk but I'm not sure he'll produce enough offence to be a good 3rd liner.

 

[BondraTime]

I like Ostapchuk but I'm not sure he'll produce enough offence to be a good 3rd liner.

Not sure why he wouldn’t be able to hit 30 points, he’s got more than enough offense to be a prototypical core piece 3rd line guy.

 

[aragorn]

Tyler Kleven LD - an opinion piece

 

[jbeck5]

Not sure why he wouldn’t be able to hit 30 points, he’s got more than enough offense to be a prototypical core piece 3rd line guy.

Now I think he has more offensive potential than the following guys, but you can see why some might have doubt:

Compare ostapchuks offensive production to guys like kastelic or Austin Watson or Zack MacEwen.

All big guys in junior so they aren't late on physical development. All a little over ppg in their 4th junior years.
All about ~30 point paces in the AHL their first year. All got callups in their first year or two.

None of them have enough offense to be a good 3rd liner. They're all mostly 4th liners.

Usually if you're already big in your 4th year of junior and also have a bunch of offensive skill, you're going to be putting up much more than a ppg.

So looking at his production the last 5 years, they fall in line much more with potential 4th liners than 3rd liners.

Like, take undersized Ridley Greig who most had as a potential 3rd liner (now some will say second liner...but when drafted it was more of a third liner) and he finished juniors with 63 points in 39 games.

Usually the guys with the talent to put up offense at the NHL to fit in the top 9 are producing closer to greigs production than Ostapchuks...unless they're late bloomers or undersized. I don't think either applies to Ostapchuk though.

Just playing Devil's advocate or offering food for thought.

Maybe he's more of a 20-30 point defensive 4th line center more in the role that Shaun Van Allen played for us. (After failing as an offensive player in the minors but that's irrelevant, as he became a strong defensive forward and penalty killer putting 20-30 pts for us)

 

[BondraTime]

Now I think he has more offensive potential than the following guys, but you can see why some might have doubt:

Compare ostapchuks offensive production to guys like kastelic or Austin Watson or Zack MacEwen.

All big guys in junior so they aren't late on physical development. All a little over ppg in their 4th junior years.
All about ~30 point paces in the AHL their first year. All got callups in their first year or two.

None of them have enough offense to be a good 3rd liner. They're all mostly 4th liners.

Usually if you're already big in your 4th year of junior and also have a bunch of offensive skill, you're going to be putting up much more than a ppg.

So looking at his production the last 5 years, they fall in line much more with potential 4th liners than 3rd liners.

Like, take undersized Ridley Greig who most had as a potential 3rd liner (now some will say second liner...but when drafted it was more of a third liner) and he finished juniors with 63 points in 39 games.

Usually the guys with the talent to put up offense at the NHL to fit in the top 9 are producing closer to greigs production than Ostapchuks...unless they're late bloomers or undersized. I don't think either applies to Ostapchuk though.

Just playing Devil's advocate or offering food for thought.

Maybe he's more of a 20-30 point defensive 4th line center more in the role that Shaun Van Allen played for us. (After failing as an offensive player in the minors but that's irrelevant, as he became a strong defensive forward and penalty killer putting 20-30 pts for us)

I mean, not sure what to say comparing Ostapchuk and his skillset to Kastelic, Watson and MacEwan.

Can't really form a rebuttal because I have no clue where to begin, there are zero similarities to their games other than their production in their 19 year old seasons, where Ostapchuk's was highest, and size.

Nick Paul fits that size or statiscal description, so does Josh Anderson, so does Pageau, etc. Without looking at the players skillsets you're not going to get much of anything other than comparing their numbers in different seasons without context

Pageau went from 1.4 in the Q at 19, to 0.42 in the AHL at 20.

Ostapchuk went from 1.21 in the W at 19, to 0.41 in the AHL at 20

Kastelic went from 1.18 in the W at 20, and 0.32 in the AHL at 20

Not going to get anything of value from an expectation standpoint looking at that

He's got great skating, very good hands, and can shoot the puck. 30 points should be extreme;y attainable from age 22/3 on

Definitely fine to have doubts, but the reasoning above doesn't pass the sniff test for why, for me at least

 

[mianjo]

I think Halliday will be more offensive in the NHL than Ostapchuk

 

[GCK]

I think Halliday will be more offensive in the NHL than Ostapchuk

He will have to be to make it. Ostapchuk already has incredible natural defensive instincts, skates well, uses his size and will be an effective NHL player even if he never reaches 40 points. Halliday seems to have good offensive instincts but they play completely different games from the little I've seen of Halliday.

 

[MoreGore]

Ostapchuk could be a Chris Kelly type of talent.

 

[OD99]

He will have to be to make it. Ostapchuk already has incredible natural defensive instincts, skates well, uses his size and will be an effective NHL player even if he never reaches 40 points. Halliday seems to have good offensive instincts but they play completely different games from the little I've seen of Halliday.

I agree with all of this, but I have a very good feeling for Halliday.

I haven't seen him a ton, but what I have seen is a natural ability to see the ice, use his size to shield the puck and a good enough shot to beat goalies clean from medium range.

A really enticing package and he should be given time to develop so he can reach his potential. A full year in the A as the offensive catalyst should do him very well.

I'm bullish.

 

[jbeck5]

I mean, not sure what to say comparing Ostapchuk and his skillset to Kastelic, Watson and MacEwan.

Can't really form a rebuttal because I have no clue where to begin, there are zero similarities to their games other than their production in their 19 year old seasons, where Ostapchuk's was highest, and size.

Nick Paul fits that size or statiscal description, so does Josh Anderson, so does Pageau, etc. Without looking at the players skillsets you're not going to get much of anything other than comparing their numbers in different seasons without context

Pageau went from 1.4 in the Q at 19, to 0.42 in the AHL at 20.

Ostapchuk went from 1.21 in the W at 19, to 0.41 in the AHL at 20

Kastelic went from 1.18 in the W at 20, and 0.32 in the AHL at 20

Not going to get anything of value from an expectation standpoint looking at that

He's got great skating, very good hands, and can shoot the puck. 30 points should be extreme;y attainable from age 22/3 on

Definitely fine to have doubts, but the reasoning above doesn't pass the sniff test for why, for me at least

I never compared their skillset. I compared their size and production.

Once again, I never said what the similarities to their games were. Pageau is undersized and I specified that they often have different curves. So throw that one out as it doesn't address the criteria of my argument.

All the guys I'm listing were drafted (or went undrafted) at 6'3 or 6'4.

All showed similar production their last year of junior. All showed similar production their first pro year. Some of them were drafted with more offensive potential to their names such as Watson.

Last junior season:

Ostapchuk - 67 pts in 55 games (1.22)
Kastelic - 68 pts in 58 games (1.17)
Watson - 68 pts in 61 games (1.15)
MacEwan - 74 pts in 66 games (1.12)

First pro season:

Watson - 37 pts in 72 games (0.51)
MacEwan - 33 pts in 66 games (0.50)
Ostapchuk - 28 pts in 69 games (0.41)
Kastelic - 10 pts in 31 games (0.32)

It's not a strange argument to see many players from 1st round picks to mid round picks to undrafted players with size come in through the system as a grinder and put up similar production and expect similar production in the future.


Yes, I said from the get go that I believe he has more offensive potential, however it has yet to translate to better production. It might in the future, but it also might not.


A guy that I also mentioned, Van Allen, also had a shit ton of offensive talent, but it didn't translate to the NHL. So if Ostapchuk played a Van Allen role, it wouldn't be the end of the world... It wouldn't be a disappointment.

Generally, the guys with better offensive potential put up better numbers even if they are under developed at the time.

Look at guys like stone (6'3) and batherson (6'3), they had potential for the top 6, but they also showed it earlier, even though drafted much later than Ostapchuk.

Last year of junior:
Batherson(4th round) - 77 pts in 52 games (1.51)
Stone ( 6th round) - 123 pts in 66 games (1.86)

First year of pro:
Batherson - 62 pts in 59 games (1.05)
Stone - 38 pts in 54 games (0.70)

So you can see why others would be weary of predicting certain offensive numbers when the players that surpass those numbers show it much earlier, even if they're late picks and still very green.

I agree that he probably will be a 30 something point 3rd liner, but his numbers to date look a lot closer to 4th liners than guys who broke into our top 6. Obviously that sweet middle ground is the third line.

It's just showing that if his offense never materializes to 30+ NHL points, there was signs in his previous years production to say "well, he never really showed offensive prowess, and it gets harder at every level, especially the NHL"

 

[Micklebot]

Ostapchuk could be a Chris Kelly type of talent.

a 6'3 205+ pound Chris Kelly would be something...

 

[Micklebot]

I never compared their skillset. I compared their size and production.

Once again, I never said what the similarities to their games were. Pageau is undersized and I specified that they often have different curves. So throw that one out as it doesn't address the criteria of my argument.

All the guys I'm listing were drafted (or went undrafted) at 6'3 or 6'4.

All showed similar production their last year of junior. All showed similar production their first pro year. Some of them were drafted with more offensive potential to their names such as Watson.

Last junior season:

Ostapchuk - 67 pts in 55 games (1.22)
Kastelic - 68 pts in 58 games (1.17)
Watson - 68 pts in 61 games (1.15)
MacEwan - 74 pts in 66 games (1.12)

First pro season:

Watson - 37 pts in 72 games (0.51)
MacEwan - 33 pts in 66 games (0.50)
Ostapchuk - 28 pts in 69 games (0.41)
Kastelic - 10 pts in 31 games (0.32)

It's not a strange argument to see many players from 1st round picks to mid round picks to undrafted players with size come in through the system as a grinder and put up similar production and expect similar production in the future.


Yes, I said from the get go that I believe he has more offensive potential, however it has yet to translate to better production. It might in the future, but it also might not.


A guy that I also mentioned, Van Allen, also had a shit ton of offensive talent, but it didn't translate to the NHL. So if Ostapchuk played a Van Allen role, it wouldn't be the end of the world... It wouldn't be a disappointment.

It's worth noting that Ostapchuk's last Junior season was at 19, while Kastelic and MacEwen were 20. So Ostapchuk is trending a year ahead of those guys.

 

[jbeck5]

It's worth noting that Ostapchuk's last Junior season was at 19, while Kastelic and MacEwen were 20. So Ostapchuk is trending a year ahead of those guys.

That is true! Definitely worth noting, though I think kastelics second last junior year at 19 is basically the same production (1.17) but it would also mean his first pro year is a bit later.

 

[DrEasy]

Ostapchuk could be a Chris Kelly type of talent.

He reminds me more of Magnus Arvedson if we're going vintage Sens. Rather big, good shot, maybe not as fast as Arvedson and not the same motor though?

 

[GCK]

He reminds me more of Magnus Arvedson if we're going vintage Sens. Rather big, good shot, maybe not as fast as Arvedson and not the same motor though?

Motor isn’t an issue with the Big O. Comparable is upside Jordan Stall without the draft pedigree floor is Joel Otto.

 

[DrEasy]

Motor isn’t an issue with the Big O.

Arvedson had an unbelievable motor though! If you're right and O can match him (didn't in his few games at the NHL level but he's still young and developing) then I'm really excited.

 

[GCK]

Arvedson had an unbelievable motor though! If you're right and O can match him (didn't in his few games at the NHL level but he's still young and developing) then I'm really excited.

Arvidsson didn’t have the IQ of Ostapchuk, made up for it with effort in recovering from being in the wrong place. The machine was one of my favourites.

 

[aragorn]

Ostapchuk is going to be a very hard player to play against in Ottawa's bottom six which is exactly what they need, he's big, he's tough, good skater, hits, fights, can play centre or LW & adds some goal production. He's basically everything a team would want in their bottom six plus he has good leadership qualities & is going to be a pain in the ass to play against which should help reduce the goals against.

Halliday on the other hand is much more of an offensive player as his numbers indicate, in his first 10 games in Belleville as a rookie had 5 pts & then led the B-Sens in scoring in the playoffs with 9 pts in 7 games. I imagine he spends another yr in Belleville & it will be interesting to see how he does down there given how well he played in his short stint this season.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Motor isn’t an issue with the Big O. Comparable is upside Jordan Stall without the draft pedigree floor is Joel Otto.

Let's be real here, at the same age Staal already had two 20G seasons and a 49P season under his belt playing on the Pens' 3rd line.

And in his prime he could have been considered a low-end #1 center. Ostapchuk just doesn't have that kind of upside.

I know nothing about Otto besides what hockeydb can tell me but looking at his numbers he appears to be closer to the best case scenario, not the floor.

 

[GCK]

Let's be real here, at the same age Staal already had two 20G seasons and a 49P season under his belt playing on the Pens' 3rd line.

And in his prime he could have been considered a low-end #1 center. Ostapchuk just doesn't have that kind of upside.

I know nothing about Otto besides what hockeydb can tell me but looking at his numbers he appears to be closer to the best case scenario, not the floor.

Jordan Stall was never a low end #1, he’s an excellent #3. His offence never came as a pro. Funny thing about ceilings, that is the best possible outcome and almost impossible to hit. As for Joel Otto, he was one of the best shutdown enters of his era, limited offence but used his size to frustrate some great centres. Otto would be a 4LC in today’s game.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Jordan Stall was never a low end #1, he’s an excellent #3. His offence never came as a pro. Funny thing about ceilings, that is the best possible outcome and almost impossible to hit. As for Joel Otto, he was one of the best shutdown enters of his era, limited offence but used his size to frustrate some great centres. Otto would be a 4LC in today’s game.

At his peak Staal was producing around 60P/82GP playing as the 3rd line shutdown center at even strength and providing Selke-level defensive play.

Keep in mind that was when scoring was a lot lower and there was only a handful of players over a PPG.

Let's be real here, Ostapchuk barely hit a PPG in the WHL in his 19YR old season, after putting up weak numbers in previous seasons. He just put up 28 points in 69 games in his first AHL season. He's never been a big scorer at any level.

What makes you think he's got anywhere close to as much offensive upside?

 

[GCK]

At his peak Staal was producing around 60P/82GP playing as the 3rd line shutdown center at even strength and providing Selke-level defensive play.

Keep in mind that was when scoring was a lot lower and there was only a handful of players over a PPG.

Let's be real here, Ostapchuk barely hit a PPG in the WHL in his 19YR old season, after putting up weak numbers in previous seasons. He just put up 28 points in 69 games in his first AHL season. He's never been a big scorer at any level.

What makes you think he's got anywhere close to as much offensive upside?

Okay just so we are clear, IMO Ostapchuk has a ceiling of excellent 3rd line centre who can produce around 20-20 while hampering some of the best centres in the league while having the floor of a 4th line centre that every playoff team dreams about.