GDT: 2023-24 season game 67 LA Kings vs Dallas Stars @5:00pm 3/16/24

[King'sPawn]

Without even comparing to other teams...this is the biggest problem LA has now via exiting the rebuild early.

Instead of having young, contributing cost controlled youth, we're getting older, worse, and more expensive by the day, and the only 'help on the way' is Clarke and Turcotte, the rest are likely supporting players but no Byfields.

If they wouldn't have accelerated, you could still have Vilardi, Faber, Durzi, Kupari, Bjornfot etc. OR the younger assets they turned into rather than older and bad choices and the sad thing is we're STILL likely to lose pieces in Kaliyev Fagemo and all the waiver eligible kids simply because these guys suck ass at evaluating and deploying.

They could be turning this over to a younger leadership group right this minute while still getting some high picks, but instead they'd rather run their kids into a wall until they're depreciated and waiver eligible, rinse them for pennies on the dollar, and get steadily worse.

And I say this as a guy who had ZERO problem with Danault/Arvy acquisitions so I'm not exactly team "all 20s"

This summarizes my feelings exactly. I was pro Danault and Arvidsson, as they are low-cost (as far as assets) but could buoy the young players if they struggle/need their responsibilities dialed back. The expectation wasn't so it would be a barrier.

Arvidsson, Iafallo, and Moore were reliable and malleable as far as playing alongside Vilardi and/or Byfield. Even if, say, Kaliyev struggled in a top-6 role, Danault would have been more defensively responsible to cover up for his defensive deficiencies.

I don't think the entire team should be filled with U23 players and veteran scrubs. The veterans should serve a much bigger role than just trying to make the playoffs.

 

[kingsfan28]

Yep, just gotta follow Ottawa and Buffalo's leads, they will get there....

Not sure why we are assuming that the Ducks rebuild is gonna be "different"

Seems like both the Sens and Sabers have been in rebuild mode for 10 years.

 

[LAKings88]

It’s not even fun clowning the Ducks and their fans because as terrible as they are, it’s a decent bet that they’ll be a legit contender before us at this moment.

My point I think is that Edm, Vgs, Van, will have a window for a while.

Cgy and SEA both are in the area of LA if maybe a step below currently. But they could jump LA any given year. Hell, CGY are only 6 points out now.

ANH might be able to improve in a couple years if they stay the course.

SJ seems to be ground zero and likely takes longer.

LA is relying on Kopi and Drew for prominant roles. Drew I think can be a Bourque lite and not hurt you but he eats up 10m a year, Clarke I still think is a cornerstone player if brought in correctly.

A lot can happen but LA likely will have to add via trade (i.e. prospects out) or free agency which is no guarantee in Cali. I still think not trading out Roy was short sighted. I know he is good but you have Clarke and Spence ready to play. Send that cap to a more pressing need.

PLD has to be more than he is now. A lot depends on his turn around if possible for this team to remain competitive for years. He needs to at least be a good 2C behind QB.

QB is the bright spot but got to surround him with the right ingredients.

This team is so much like Palffy era Kings.

Quick was the real reason they went contender status 12-14.

 

[kingsfan28]

Without even comparing to other teams...this is the biggest problem LA has now via exiting the rebuild early.

Instead of having young, contributing cost controlled youth, we're getting older, worse, and more expensive by the day, and the only 'help on the way' is Clarke and Turcotte, the rest are likely supporting players but no Byfields.

If they wouldn't have accelerated, you could still have Vilardi, Faber, Durzi, Kupari, Bjornfot etc. OR the younger assets they turned into rather than older and bad choices and the sad thing is we're STILL likely to lose pieces in Kaliyev Fagemo and all the waiver eligible kids simply because these guys suck ass at evaluating and deploying.

They could be turning this over to a younger leadership group right this minute while still getting some high picks, but instead they'd rather run their kids into a wall until they're depreciated and waiver eligible, rinse them for pennies on the dollar, and get steadily worse.

And I say this as a guy who had ZERO problem with Danault/Arvy acquisitions so I'm not exactly team "all 20s"

Even if they just stayed the course here would be our defensive core on the right side without trades:

Doughty
Roy
Walker
Spence
Clarke
Faber
Durzi
Grans

You can't play all of them so many will have to be moved for other assets.Roy and Walker didn't have the same value today as they did 2-3 years ago. And by pure unfortunate luck we found our Durzi can play and score in the nhl, defensive mistakes aside. Not sure anyone thought he had a real shot in that log jam until we were forced into it. Hell, everyone was ready to run both Walker and Durzi out on a rail at times.

So who plays where ?

 

[King'sPawn]

Even if they just stayed the course here would be our defensive core on the right side without trades:

Doughty
Roy
Walker
Spence
Clarke
Faber
Durzi
Grans

You can't play all of them so many will have to be moved for other assets.Roy and Walker didn't have the same value today as they did 2-3 years ago. And by pure unfortunate luck we found our Durzi can play and score in the nhl, defensive mistakes aside. Not sure anyone thought he had a real shot in that log jam until we were forced into it. Hell, everyone was ready to run both Walker and Durzi out on a rail at times.

Yes. For futures.

Durzi was traded for a pick that was used to acquire PLD.

Walker was traded as part of the cost to dump Petersen's contract... the cap space which was used to extend PLD.

There's a difference between wanting a player traded and using the assets of trading away those players to bring in an arguably worse contract.

These players could have been used to restock holes on the left side, goaltending, additional picks, etc. They didn't have to hang onto all of them. But ultimately using them for another kick in the can at making the playoffs (a run they are 4 points away from being on the outside as of this writing) is the complete opposite of what many of us thought would be a wise move.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Even if they just stayed the course here would be our defensive core on the right side without trades:

Doughty
Roy
Walker
Spence
Clarke
Faber
Durzi
Grans

You can't play all of them so many will have to be moved for other assets.Roy and Walker didn't have the same value today as they did 2-3 years ago. And by pure unfortunate luck we found our Durzi can play and score in the nhl, defensive mistakes aside. Not sure anyone thought he had a real shot in that log jam until we were forced into it. Hell, everyone was ready to run both Walker and Durzi out on a rail at times.

So who plays where ?

KP mostly covered it for me

Why is it so hard to envision a world in which those guys were traded for needs, like equivalent young LHD or , rather than pissed away on Petersen, PLD, etc?

Imagine rolling Faber-Clarke-SPence into the future having traded Doughty and the others for young assets and recycled them for 1sts and 2nds you can add to it with?

Like the D isn't even the hard part to envision, I don't know why this keeps getting trotted out as some sort of gotcha in the veins of "What was Blake supposed to do?" I dunno, see the log jam coming and address young LHD at some point, particularly since they were clearly already down on Bjornfot and Moverare? We literally predicted almost exactly this scenario nearly 4 years ago now, the receipts are all over the forum. And we're internet idiots doing this for free, not having been around the NHL our whole adult lives and getting paid 5 million to not f*** it all up.

 

[kingsfan28]

Yes. For futures.

Durzi was traded for a pick that was used to acquire PLD.

Walker was traded as part of the cost to dump Petersen's contract... the cap space which was used to extend PLD.

There's a difference between wanting a player traded and using the assets of trading away those players to bring in an arguably worse contract.

These players could have been used to restock holes on the left side, goaltending, additional picks, etc. They didn't have to hang onto all of them. But ultimately using them for another kick in the can at making the playoffs (a run they are 4 points away from being on the outside as of this writing) is the complete opposite of what many of us thought would be a wise move.

But at what expense? To get value you have to trade value. Lets say there's a top puck moving LHD who can score, do you give up one of your prized young rhd or other top prospect , because that will be the asking price. This team still needs a scoring LHD, hell they need a scoring dman altogether.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

But at what expense? To get value you have to trade value. Lets say there's a top puck moving LHD who can score, do you give up one of your prized young rhd or other top prospect , because that will be the asking price. This team still needs a scoring LHD, hell they need a scoring dman altogether.

Sure, yes, trade two young RHDs for one young LHD? Why is that so hard?

I mean it doesn't even have to be a ripoff and blake can 'lose' value wise while still getting younger cheaper and better rather than older, worse, and more expensive.

I don't know what's not being communicated so I'm sorry, but we aren't saying don't make trades, we're saying exiting the rebuild early was literally the dumbest worst f***ing idea

 

[kingsfan28]

KP mostly covered it for me

Why is it so hard to envision a world in which those guys were traded for needs, like equivalent young LHD or , rather than pissed away on Petersen, PLD, etc?

Imagine rolling Faber-Clarke-SPence into the future having traded Doughty and the others for young assets and recycled them for 1sts and 2nds you can add to it with?

Like the D isn't even the hard part to envision, I don't know why this keeps getting trotted out as some sort of gotcha in the veins of "What was Blake supposed to do?" I dunno, see the log jam coming and address young LHD at some point, particularly since they were clearly already down on Bjornfot and Moverare? We literally predicted almost exactly this scenario nearly 4 years ago now, the receipts are all over the forum. And we're internet idiots doing this for free, not having been around the NHL our whole adult lives and getting paid 5 million to not f*** it all up.

They were never going to trade Doughty, and you know it. The LHD has always been a problem, so how do you acquire one, without giving up one if not two of Clarke Faber or Spence? You'd be ok with that? And I agree the Petersen and PLD really messed thing up.

 

[kingsfan28]

Sure, yes, trade two young RHDs for one young LHD? Why is that so hard?

I mean it doesn't even have to be a ripoff and blake can 'lose' value wise while still getting younger cheaper and better rather than older, worse, and more expensive.

I don't know what's not being communicated so I'm sorry, but we aren't saying don't make trades, we're saying exiting the rebuild early was literally the dumbest worst f***ing idea

I get what your saying, but I think we all know where and why the rebuild stopped. AEG still pulls the stings as far as I'm concerned and i can't see them letting the team languish in 6th place or worse for 6-8 years. They want to make money, especially post covid.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

They were never going to trade Doughty, and you know it. The LHD has always been a problem, so how do you acquire one, without giving up one if not two of Clarke Faber or Spence? You'd be ok with that? And I agree the Petersen and PLD really messed thing up.

okay, then in that world, they keep doughty-clarke-faber and still can move some combo of Roy-Durzi-Spence-Grans and STILL be replete with assets.

There's not a way you can paint this where there isn't an easy out.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

They were never going to trade Doughty, and you know it. The LHD has always been a problem, so how do you acquire one, without giving up one if not two of Clarke Faber or Spence? You'd be ok with that? And I agree the Petersen and PLD really messed thing up.

This whole trade Doughty deal is such ingenius bullshit, I mean if it happens all the time like some of these people believe, why is Letang still with PIT, why is McAvoy still with BOS, why is Hedman still with TB, why is Theodore still with VGS, why is Carlson still with WSH, why is Eklbad still with FL, I can go on and on and on..... top notch star D, very RARELY get moved unless A. they want out, ala Karlsson, Weber, Subban etc, or there are financial implications, ala Subban etc....

 

[King'sPawn]

But at what expense? To get value you have to trade value. Lets say there's a top puck moving LHD who can score, do you give up one of your prized young rhd or other top prospect , because that will be the asking price. This team still needs a scoring LHD, hell they need a scoring dman altogether.

Yes.

Roy, Durzi, Walker all had value. Walker upped his value this season, but even for less of a price, it would still be better than using so many assets to push your team up against the cap for a tertiary organizational need who has a history of malcontention.

Heck, Roy could have been traded last year and Faber could have had an opportunity to fill in. Considering he's likely a Calder finalist with first pairing minutes, he probably could have handled second-pairing (assuming Doughty would have gone aling with a rebuild).

Clarke and Spence could have been battling out the third pairing or put on the left side. Up until the deadline, Colorado had only two right-handed shots. You don't NEED a 1:1 of right shots to left. You just need players who can actually fit.

The point is that the amount of assets and concern spent on what's turning out to be mediocrity was avoidable had Blake possessed the vision and salesmanship to handle the last few seasons differently.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

Yes.

Roy, Durzi, Walker all had value. Walker upped his value this season, but even for less of a price, it would still be better than using so many assets to push your team up against the cap for a tertiary organizational need who has a history of malcontention.

Heck, Roy could have been traded last year and Faber could have had an opportunity to fill in. Considering he's likely a Calder finalist with first pairing minutes, he probably could have handled second-pairing (assuming Doughty would have gone aling with a rebuild).

Clarke and Spence could have been battling out the third pairing or put on the left side. Up until the deadline, Colorado had only two right-handed shots. You don't NEED a 1:1 of right shots to left. You just need players who can actually fit.

The point is that the amount of assets and concern spent on what's turning out to be mediocrity was avoidable had Blake possessed the vision and salesmanship to handle the last few seasons differently.

You absolutely can trade from a position of strength, but, almost all of this is hindsight, in terms of value, no way Walker had the value he had, when Philly traded him, you weren't getting a 1st for Durzi, they got a 2nd, which surprised most people on this board, they should have traded Spence in my opinon and kept Durzi.

Back to what I was saying earlier as I have about 30 minutes before I need to think again,

MOST rebuilds do not work, most don't turn into playoff dynasties, mostly because GMs are absolutely scared out of their minds to trade a Brock Faber or a Quinton Byfield etc, they think like most of this board, collect collect collect, if they don't fit, trade or waive etc,

I mean look at your top teams right now, it's about what, 50/50 if it works, OTT/BUF/DET/MTL/CBS didn't work, NJD/CAR worked both having issues this year being competitive though, so maybe the jury is out? BOS/TB haven't done a rebuild in years, FLA didn't do a rebuild, PHI, not sure if you can classify what they did as a rebuild, WSH/PIT/NYI/ out of the 16 eastern conference teams, you have 2 rebuilds in the last couple of years that have worked out.....

So yea, I think there is a helluva lot more ways to build a contender than sucking for 5 plus years....

 

[King'sPawn]

You absolutely can trade from a position of strength, but, almost all of this is hindsight, in terms of value, no way Walker had the value he had, when Philly traded him, you weren't getting a 1st for Durzi, they got a 2nd, which surprised most people on this board, they should have traded Spence in my opinon and kept Durzi.

I admitted the value would have been less, but still better than what they did with the returns ultimately - acquire and extend PLD.

And that's not hindsight. Many people were not on board with acquiring PLD.

MOST rebuilds do not work, most don't turn into playoff dynasties, mostly because GMs are absolutely scared out of their minds to trade a Brock Faber or a Quinton Byfield etc, they think like most of this board, collect collect collect, if they don't fit, trade or waive etc,

What's your definition of not working?

What's your definition of a playoff dynasty? Just a couple months ago you said "all you have to do is make the playoffs."

And I'm sorry, but this paragraph seems contradictory. You said GMs are scared out of their minds to trade big prospects, but then say at the end to waive or trade prospects that don't fit.

I mean look at your top teams right now, it's about what, 50/50 if it works, OTT/BUF/DET/MTL/CBS didn't work, NJD/CAR worked both having issues this year being competitive though, so maybe the jury is out? BOS/TB haven't done a rebuild in years, FLA didn't do a rebuild, PHI, not sure if you can classify what they did as a rebuild, WSH/PIT/NYI/ out of the 16 eastern conference teams, you have 2 rebuilds in the last couple of years that have worked out.....

So yea, I think there is a helluva lot more ways to build a contender than sucking for 5 plus years....

Florida had back-to-back lottery picks in 2013-14 (Barkov and Ekblad). What do you mean they didn't rebuild? New Jersey and Carolina notoriously have low-budget teams but still make it work generally. Pittsburgh and Washington are showing what happens when you depend on the aging vets to carry your team instead of trying to get additional young players to build around them instead. Note this isn't a decree that Pittsburgh should trade Crosby, for example. But rather, focus on bringing in bigger impact younger players.

Nobody is saying the team has to be terrible for 5+ years. But they do need to build through the draft long enough for younger players to take over the core, which is why Boston and Tampa Bay have been able to get by.

But then this cones down to development. Byfield, as a 2nd overall pick, is playing up in the lineup. Aside from Mikey Anderson and Matt Roy, how many non first-round picks developed by the Kings are in the top-six for forwards, top-four for defensemen, and/or people you would consider a core player?

TB has Kucherov and Point as their leading scorers, both drafted after the first. So, if you're not going to get first-round picks, your later picks better be capable of being core pieces.

The Kings just do neither of the above: acquiring multiple top picks or developing later picks to become core players. They take a single-minded development approach to slow boil but also didn't acquire and keep enough younger players to build a new core. They're left with counting on Kopitar and Doughty, who have played among the most and tiring minutes over many years, to continue as their core.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

I admitted the value would have been less, but still better than what they did with the returns ultimately - acquire and extend PLD.

And that's not hindsight. Many people were not on board with acquiring PLD.

What's your definition of not working?

What's your definition of a playoff dynasty? Just a couple months ago you said "all you have to do is make the playoffs."

And I'm sorry, but this paragraph seems contradictory. You said GMs are scared out of their minds to trade big prospects, but then say at the end to waive or trade prospects that don't fit.

Florida had back-to-back lottery picks in 2013-14 (Barkov and Ekblad). What do you mean they didn't rebuild? New Jersey and Carolina notoriously have low-budget teams but still make it work generally. Pittsburgh and Washington are showing what happens when you depend on the aging vets to carry your team instead of trying to get additional young players to build around them instead. Note this isn't a decree that Pittsburgh should trade Crosby, for example. But rather, focus on bringing in bigger impact younger players.

Nobody is saying the team has to be terrible for 5+ years. But they do need to build through the draft long enough for younger players to take over the core, which is why Boston and Tampa Bay have been able to get by.

But then this cones down to development. Byfield, as a 2nd overall pick, is playing up in the lineup. Aside from Mikey Anderson and Matt Roy, how many non first-round picks developed by the Kings are in the top-six for forwards, top-four for defensemen, and/or people you would consider a core player?

TB has Kucherov and Point as their leading scorers, both drafted after the first. So, if you're not going to get first-round picks, your later picks better be capable of being core pieces.

The Kings just do neither of the above: acquiring multiple top picks or developing later picks to become core players. They take a single-minded development approach to slow boil but also didn't acquire and keep enough younger players to build a new core. They're left with counting on Kopitar and Doughty, who have played among the most and tiring minutes over many years, to continue as their core.

If you are looking at a one off win, all you have to do is make it, there are several teams that have proved that, if you want a "playoff dynasty but never win" Look at Toronto, Boston, Florida, etc

Florida had back to back lottery picks 10 years ago, I maybe mistaken, but they haven't won shit, they have been competitive though, that's really all you can ask of a team, is to be competitive, because you need a shit ton to go right to win. But yea, sure, FLA rebuilt 10 years ago, with the Barkov pick, he's the only player left on that team, that was rebuilt....so having a lottery pick doesn't really mean you are rebuilding, in his 10 years of being in FL, they have made the playoffs 5 times and have gone past the 1st round twice.... I don't really feel that's a total rebuild.

GMs are absolutely scared to death to trade the wrong prospect, they would rather keep them all, and then toss aside what's wilted, everyone thinks LA is the only team that does this, ala JAD, Kaliyev, Fagemo etc, but the league is LITTERED with players like this, promising prospects who couldn't get away of their situation etc....