Prospect Info: 2023-24 Prospect Info (CHL, NCAA, Europe)

Status
Not open for further replies.

HockeyScotty

Registered User
Sep 11, 2021
163
162
It takes an absurd amount of investment to make that idea work, and while there is plenty of money in those cities... that money is not hopped up on hockey. And traditionally, most sport ownership in Europe has been less about joining an exclusive club... where in NA getting a NHL team is a status symbol and sets the path to ownership in other leagues.
Again, my proposal is that it is an "AHL equivalent" league not an "NHL equivalent" so the economics don't have to be that massive. It would be looking for 5-6,000 fans in attendance and minimal broadcast revenues along with NHL support for players/coaches salaries. Of course if it was popular enough to get 10,000 fans in some markets (like the Cleveland Monsters and Hershey Bears) that would be great too.

NHL borderline players can remain under contract to an NHL team but play in Europe, closer to home. Free agents would have a place to prove themselves at a higher level; young players can "learn the NA game" but remain close to their homeland just like Canadian and American kids.
 

henchman21

Mr. Meeseeks
Feb 24, 2012
67,102
53,647
Again, my proposal is that it is an "AHL equivalent" league not an "NHL equivalent" so the economics don't have to be that massive. It would be looking for 5-6,000 fans in attendance and minimal broadcast revenues along with NHL support for players/coaches salaries. Of course if it was popular enough to get 10,000 fans in some markets (like the Cleveland Monsters and Hershey Bears) that would be great too.

NHL borderline players can remain under contract to an NHL team but play in Europe, closer to home. Free agents would have a place to prove themselves at a higher level; young players can "learn the NA game" but remain close to their homeland just like Canadian and American kids.
The AHL in an entrenched, historical league with a tie. A brand new league, even with an AHL equivalent would cost in the realm of $50m per team to even get going (arenas/leases, operations, marketing, losses prior to ticket sales, agreements with other leagues, buyouts/loans of players). Then the operations of a team to be on a higher level than other European leagues, or at least competitive with the KHL would push to around 25-30m per year. With 5-6k fans, you can't really make the numbers work. You need 10k and ~40+% of revenue coming from TV rights/advertising (this issue is the main reason why Euro rinks and jerseys look like NASCAR) to have a chance at a startup working. Even then you're looking at a 5-7 year break even. If you're talking 16 teams. You're well into the 3-4b range right here with a decent chance of failure (just look at the KHL trying to do exactly this).
 

HockeyScotty

Registered User
Sep 11, 2021
163
162
The AHL in an entrenched, historical league with a tie. A brand new league, even with an AHL equivalent would cost in the realm of $50m per team to even get going (arenas/leases, operations, marketing, losses prior to ticket sales, agreements with other leagues, buyouts/loans of players). Then the operations of a team to be on a higher level than other European leagues, or at least competitive with the KHL would push to around 25-30m per year. With 5-6k fans, you can't really make the numbers work. You need 10k and ~40+% of revenue coming from TV rights/advertising (this issue is the main reason why Euro rinks and jerseys look like NASCAR) to have a chance at a startup working. Even then you're looking at a 5-7 year break even. If you're talking 16 teams. You're well into the 3-4b range right here with a decent chance of failure (just look at the KHL trying to do exactly this).
Good conversation. I wouldn't have this league try to compete with KHL salaries; more likely it would be between $100k-$1 million; and a team cap of around $6.5 million so with 8 teams initially it would be around $52 million in player salaries.

It would be a starting point to gain a European foothold for an NHL-affiliated league; the ROI would be expected to much longer than 5-7 years; just as any pro sports league is.

The biggest knock for a majority of European prospects is that they need to learn the "North American game" but only a few are allowed (or able) to come to the CHL or USHL in junior and another few get scholarship offers at NCAA programs. Too many come over when they are around 20-22 and only have a brief window to learn the game/language and prove themselves worthy of a contract.

There are also 0 NHL Head Coaches from Europe.
0 Referees from Europe.
1 Linesman from Europe.

This in a league where 30% of the players come from Europe.

If the NHL wants to expand to 36 teams and wants to have the "best coaches" and the "best referees" in the world; then they need to create a more efficient worldwide pipeline to supply the talent.

Milan is building an amazing ice arena for the next Olympics; Vienna and Oslo are also building world-class new arenas. Even if you have to skip the competition in Stockholm, Helsinki, and Prague to protect the local teams; there are some great markets to build in Europe for this level of play.

London
Paris
Milan
Vienna
Oslo
Copenhagen
plus any 2 of the big 4 German cities: Munich, Cologne, Berlin, or Mannheim; or if the DEL is to be avoided then Amsterdam, Brussels, or Manchester could be options.
 

HockeyScotty

Registered User
Sep 11, 2021
163
162
The AHL in an entrenched, historical league with a tie. A brand new league, even with an AHL equivalent would cost in the realm of $50m per team to even get going (arenas/leases, operations, marketing, losses prior to ticket sales, agreements with other leagues, buyouts/loans of players). Then the operations of a team to be on a higher level than other European leagues, or at least competitive with the KHL would push to around 25-30m per year. With 5-6k fans, you can't really make the numbers work. You need 10k and ~40+% of revenue coming from TV rights/advertising (this issue is the main reason why Euro rinks and jerseys look like NASCAR) to have a chance at a startup working. Even then you're looking at a 5-7 year break even. If you're talking 16 teams. You're well into the 3-4b range right here with a decent chance of failure (just look at the KHL trying to do exactly this).
Secondly, if the NHL had started a European presence 50 years ago, 30 years ago, or 15 years ago it would be "entrenched" today. So starting today will make that future benefit come sooner. Never starting to build it will only continue the NHL-IIHF-European leagues (including the KHL) disconnect in the hockey "pyramid" even longer.
 

S E P H

Cloud IX
Mar 5, 2010
32,678
18,097
Toruń, PL
There are also 0 NHL Head Coaches from Europe.
0 Referees from Europe.
1 Linesman from Europe.
Just because it is zero for all three aspects does not mean Europe is negative or bad in those qualities. THere are at least two to three Russian, Swedish, and Finnish coaches that could be as good as Maurice is. They are not given the chance.
 

HockeyScotty

Registered User
Sep 11, 2021
163
162
Just because it is zero for all three aspects does not mean Europe is negative or bad in those qualities. THere are at least two to three Russian, Swedish, and Finnish coaches that could be as good as Maurice is. They are not given the chance.
That's my point. They aren't being given a chance because they would have to move to NA and become assistants for small salaries to prove they can coach or referee the "NA game" first. If the "NA game" was played in Europe at a level equal to the AHL then we would see better coaching, reffing, etc
 
  • Like
Reactions: S E P H

henchman21

Mr. Meeseeks
Feb 24, 2012
67,102
53,647
Just because it is zero for all three aspects does not mean Europe is negative or bad in those qualities. THere are at least two to three Russian, Swedish, and Finnish coaches that could be as good as Maurice is. They are not given the chance.
There are also a number who won't take the chances to come over to NA. Especially in the coaching realm. With refs/linesman... it is honestly pretty simple. The pay is not nearly enough to make the jump, and to get a full time NHL gig... you're in the AHL typically for 4-6 years with zero guarantee you'll move up permanently. It isn't worth uprooting your life for that grind.

Good conversation. I wouldn't have this league try to compete with KHL salaries; more likely it would be between $100k-$1 million; and a team cap of around $6.5 million so with 8 teams initially it would be around $52 million in player salaries.

It would be a starting point to gain a European foothold for an NHL-affiliated league; the ROI would be expected to much longer than 5-7 years; just as any pro sports league is.

The biggest knock for a majority of European prospects is that they need to learn the "North American game" but only a few are allowed (or able) to come to the CHL or USHL in junior and another few get scholarship offers at NCAA programs. Too many come over when they are around 20-22 and only have a brief window to learn the game/language and prove themselves worthy of a contract.

There are also 0 NHL Head Coaches from Europe.
0 Referees from Europe.
1 Linesman from Europe.

This in a league where 30% of the players come from Europe.

If the NHL wants to expand to 36 teams and wants to have the "best coaches" and the "best referees" in the world; then they need to create a more efficient worldwide pipeline to supply the talent.

Milan is building an amazing ice arena for the next Olympics; Vienna and Oslo are also building world-class new arenas. Even if you have to skip the competition in Stockholm, Helsinki, and Prague to protect the local teams; there are some great markets to build in Europe for this level of play.

London
Paris
Milan
Vienna
Oslo
Copenhagen
plus any 2 of the big 4 German cities: Munich, Cologne, Berlin, or Mannheim; or if the DEL is to be avoided then Amsterdam, Brussels, or Manchester could be options.
ROI is incredibly important here. This isn't an established venture where there is prestige in ownership, nor is there return simply based on scarcity (how many NA sports teams operate). This would be an all new venture with a very significant risk of failure. Especially if you're targeting cities that have very little established hockey fandom... like Milan, Paris, London, and Vienna... arguably even Oslo and Copenhagen. There needs to be light at the end of the tunnel for billions to be spent. As a league, the NHL isn't so flush with cash that they can as a group afford billions in a venture like this. European owners simply have a different outlook as well.

As for competing with the KHL... you have to be attractive to get players. If the KHL is paying double, what is the reason to go to this league? The paycut (compared to KHL) and chance at the NHL is the AHL route as built in now. You have to pay and build in the best chance.

IMO the biggest knock on European prospects is not the style of play. Plenty of players are adaptable. The bigger knock is they are not always willing to put in the development time and earn the roles. They want NHL or back home... this would arguably make that issue worse. Even if you could call them up, they wouldn't be ready in a matter of hours... we're talking days if not weeks considering the visa and tax issues surrounding it. But why would a Swede stick around in the AHL for a year or two if they could just go to this league? How would they earn their roles when the callups would be significantly more difficult?

I would like to see a better and more unified European league, but the business case for it is incredibly difficult. Without a business case, you need prestige and status... which this clearly wouldn't have.
 

HockeyScotty

Registered User
Sep 11, 2021
163
162
There are also a number who won't take the chances to come over to NA. Especially in the coaching realm. With refs/linesman... it is honestly pretty simple. The pay is not nearly enough to make the jump, and to get a full time NHL gig... you're in the AHL typically for 4-6 years with zero guarantee you'll move up permanently. It isn't worth uprooting your life for that grind.


ROI is incredibly important here. This isn't an established venture where there is prestige in ownership, nor is there return simply based on scarcity (how many NA sports teams operate). This would be an all new venture with a very significant risk of failure. Especially if you're targeting cities that have very little established hockey fandom... like Milan, Paris, London, and Vienna... arguably even Oslo and Copenhagen. There needs to be light at the end of the tunnel for billions to be spent. As a league, the NHL isn't so flush with cash that they can as a group afford billions in a venture like this. European owners simply have a different outlook as well.

As for competing with the KHL... you have to be attractive to get players. If the KHL is paying double, what is the reason to go to this league? The paycut (compared to KHL) and chance at the NHL is the AHL route as built in now. You have to pay and build in the best chance.

IMO the biggest knock on European prospects is not the style of play. Plenty of players are adaptable. The bigger knock is they are not always willing to put in the development time and earn the roles. They want NHL or back home... this would arguably make that issue worse. Even if you could call them up, they wouldn't be ready in a matter of hours... we're talking days if not weeks considering the visa and tax issues surrounding it. But why would a Swede stick around in the AHL for a year or two if they could just go to this league? How would they earn their roles when the callups would be significantly more difficult?

I would like to see a better and more unified European league, but the business case for it is incredibly difficult. Without a business case, you need prestige and status... which this clearly wouldn't have.
For sure the player transfer timeline is the biggest drawback to being an AHL equivalent; but the mid/long-term player development would be better.

Currently the NHL loses those players to the KHL for multiple years, so having them "in the pyramid" is preferable. I think many players and coaches in general would love to leave the KHL and the political/authoritarian structure there if only there was a decent alternative. With the decline in the KHL this is the perfect opportunity for the NHL to lead the way and gain the market share. It will pay off in the future.

The other Euro leagues all have caps on "foreign players" that I would not want this league to adopt to encourage broader scouting and team construction. The Euros that leave the AHL to "go back home" would be offset by many North Americans staying home to play in the AHL.

Every year the NHL pyramid loses quality players back to Europe never to return because these guys don't want to be paid peanuts in the AHL far from home; but the quality of play in Europe isn't sufficient to help them establish NHL value.

As far as playing style, guys like Juraj Slafkovsky were not prepared for the physicality and smaller ice surface (reaction times) despite strength/size. It is a different game and it does take longer for players from Europe to adapt to the NHL. A select few (growing now that the CHL increased the import player limit) of junior players take the chance to come over for their development but those are a small %.

Each European team would operate like an independent AHL club with player assignments coming from different NHL organizations.

The ticket gate revenues would be enough to support the player salary budget.
36 home games each x $35 (USD) x 5,000 Avg Att = $50,400,000 subject to each market's demand.
Concessions, merchandise, advertising would contribute to arena/operations costs
The NHL would subsidize the executives, coaches, referees, scouts, etc.
All media rights/ content distribution would flow back to the NHL (this would have the most long-term value).

If the NHL is going to be expanding to 36 teams (likely at this point) then this league would help the dilution in North America by not needing any more AHL expansion. Enough roster players could be assigned to Europe to offset it; along with adding back high level players into the NHL pipeline away from the KHL and other European leagues.
 

HockeyScotty

Registered User
Sep 11, 2021
163
162
I know we've beaten the horse dead on the subject, but my last thoughts are that:

1) We complain about the poor officiating but we cannot say the NHL has the "best referees in the world" when there is no contribution from Europe to this group. We could be missing out on a 30% improvement in "talent" of on-ice officiating.

2) We complain about the retread coaching hires and GM hires, yet again we ignore a continent that has played high level hockey for nearly as long as North America and who's contribution of the player talent has grown from 10-30% in the last 50 years.

3) We complain about the NHL game not being a "premier sports league" on the world stage; yet have no strategy for gaining media influence in the most popular hockey markets in the world for these elite players and teams outside of 2-4 games per year from visiting NHL teams.

4) Gaining a foothold in Europe under the NHL banner is not something that can be done at a high level all at once; it needs to be nurtured and developed in a conservative manner; hence my proposal for an AHL-equivalent league. Who knows, in 20-30 years perhaps a European Division of NHL teams rises out of this starting point.
 

henchman21

Mr. Meeseeks
Feb 24, 2012
67,102
53,647
For sure the player transfer timeline is the biggest drawback to being an AHL equivalent; but the mid/long-term player development would be better.

Currently the NHL loses those players to the KHL for multiple years, so having them "in the pyramid" is preferable. I think many players and coaches in general would love to leave the KHL and the political/authoritarian structure there if only there was a decent alternative. With the decline in the KHL this is the perfect opportunity for the NHL to lead the way and gain the market share. It will pay off in the future.

The other Euro leagues all have caps on "foreign players" that I would not want this league to adopt to encourage broader scouting and team construction. The Euros that leave the AHL to "go back home" would be offset by many North Americans staying home to play in the AHL.

Every year the NHL pyramid loses quality players back to Europe never to return because these guys don't want to be paid peanuts in the AHL far from home; but the quality of play in Europe isn't sufficient to help them establish NHL value.

As far as playing style, guys like Juraj Slafkovsky were not prepared for the physicality and smaller ice surface (reaction times) despite strength/size. It is a different game and it does take longer for players from Europe to adapt to the NHL. A select few (growing now that the CHL increased the import player limit) of junior players take the chance to come over for their development but those are a small %.

Each European team would operate like an independent AHL club with player assignments coming from different NHL organizations.

The ticket gate revenues would be enough to support the player salary budget.
36 home games each x $35 (USD) x 5,000 Avg Att = $50,400,000 subject to each market's demand.
Concessions, merchandise, advertising would contribute to arena/operations costs
The NHL would subsidize the executives, coaches, referees, scouts, etc.
All media rights/ content distribution would flow back to the NHL (this would have the most long-term value).

If the NHL is going to be expanding to 36 teams (likely at this point) then this league would help the dilution in North America by not needing any more AHL expansion. Enough roster players could be assigned to Europe to offset it; along with adding back high level players into the NHL pipeline away from the KHL and other European leagues.
If a player isn't good enough to cut it at 25/26, NHL teams don't really care if those guys want to go to Europe and play. Its the 21-23 range they want and they'd want access to those players ASAP... not in days or weeks.

What you're really suggesting here is a 3-4b investment by the league and owners... with nearly zero assurance of success or profitability in any reasonable timeframe. The business case is simply not strong. You can speak of long-term investment, but there is zero assurance it will actually work. Along with that, the NHL is not super flush with cash and owners are not going to lineup to join in this risky venture. It is kinda like NFL Europe, just with hockey fans already there. It is risky and unlikely to be financially viable.

The NHL will expand to 36 and so will the AHL over the next 10 years. Yeah there is some dilution that comes along with that, but the talent pool for the NHL is as strong as it has ever been. There is nearly zero issue in attracting talent to the league. Even top KHL guys, who are paid well, still come over to try their hand.

The much better financial case to this development problem is simply increase AHL salaries. Instead of ELC guys getting 80k and a 90k signing bonus each year... push that to 250-350k total and you easily surpass most Euro leagues outside the KHL and Swiss league. Considering this is maybe 10-15 guys at a time, that is only a ~2m investment per year per team. It would take 50 years of that investment to reach the outlay within the first few years.

I get the desire for the league and I support the idea... the business case is simply not there. Not without heavy subsidization by the NHL, which is not nearly healthy enough to make this investment... and the NHLPA would fight it as it adds a whole bunch of costs that would take away from their salaries. The NFL as a nearly 20b operation can't afford this. The NBA as a 11b operation (and significantly less startup costs) can't afford this. The NHL at 6b certainly can't.
 

henchman21

Mr. Meeseeks
Feb 24, 2012
67,102
53,647
I know we've beaten the horse dead on the subject, but my last thoughts are that:

1) We complain about the poor officiating but we cannot say the NHL has the "best referees in the world" when there is no contribution from Europe to this group. We could be missing out on a 30% improvement in "talent" of on-ice officiating.

2) We complain about the retread coaching hires and GM hires, yet again we ignore a continent that has played high level hockey for nearly as long as North America and who's contribution of the player talent has grown from 10-30% in the last 50 years.

3) We complain about the NHL game not being a "premier sports league" on the world stage; yet have no strategy for gaining media influence in the most popular hockey markets in the world for these elite players and teams outside of 2-4 games per year from visiting NHL teams.

4) Gaining a foothold in Europe under the NHL banner is not something that can be done at a high level all at once; it needs to be nurtured and developed in a conservative manner; hence my proposal for an AHL-equivalent league. Who knows, in 20-30 years perhaps a European Division of NHL teams rises out of this starting point.

1. Refs are always the bad guy in any sport, regardless of how good they are. When people complain about the refs, they should really look at the quality elsewhere. NHL is comparable or better than most.

2. We have a Euro GM now and had another recently. Many Euros are working their way through front offices now. We could have European NHL coaches now (Igor Larionov has turned down jobs in the past), but we will soon... just a matter of time.

3. The NHL is a premier sports league. Despite being 4th rung in NA... it is still a top 5-10 league in the world. Behind NBA, NFL, MLB, and Premier League most certainly. In the same realm as Bundesliga, La Liga, Ligue 1, and Serie A. Ahead of MLS, IPL, NPB, AFL and CBA.

4. The NHL already has a strong foothold in Europe. Players want to play here and many European fans follow the NHL. Just look at all the Europeans here talking about hockey in the middle of vacation season.

I'd say a Euro division is more likely than a separate league. That's not likely until the NHL is looking at 42+ teams.
 

HockeyScotty

Registered User
Sep 11, 2021
163
162
If a player isn't good enough to cut it at 25/26, NHL teams don't really care if those guys want to go to Europe and play. Its the 21-23 range they want and they'd want access to those players ASAP... not in days or weeks.

What you're really suggesting here is a 3-4b investment by the league and owners... with nearly zero assurance of success or profitability in any reasonable timeframe. The business case is simply not strong. You can speak of long-term investment, but there is zero assurance it will actually work. Along with that, the NHL is not super flush with cash and owners are not going to lineup to join in this risky venture. It is kinda like NFL Europe, just with hockey fans already there. It is risky and unlikely to be financially viable.

The NHL will expand to 36 and so will the AHL over the next 10 years. Yeah there is some dilution that comes along with that, but the talent pool for the NHL is as strong as it has ever been. There is nearly zero issue in attracting talent to the league. Even top KHL guys, who are paid well, still come over to try their hand.

The much better financial case to this development problem is simply increase AHL salaries. Instead of ELC guys getting 80k and a 90k signing bonus each year... push that to 250-350k total and you easily surpass most Euro leagues outside the KHL and Swiss league. Considering this is maybe 10-15 guys at a time, that is only a ~2m investment per year per team. It would take 50 years of that investment to reach the outlay within the first few years.

I get the desire for the league and I support the idea... the business case is simply not there. Not without heavy subsidization by the NHL, which is not nearly healthy enough to make this investment... and the NHLPA would fight it as it adds a whole bunch of costs that would take away from their salaries. The NFL as a nearly 20b operation can't afford this. The NBA as a 11b operation (and significantly less startup costs) can't afford this. The NHL at 6b certainly can't.
I appreciate your feedback, perspective, and conversation on this topic!
 
  • Like
Reactions: henchman21

Hasbro

Family Friend
Sponsor
Apr 1, 2004
53,391
17,704
South Rectangle
Just because it is zero for all three aspects does not mean Europe is negative or bad in those qualities. THere are at least two to three Russian, Swedish, and Finnish coaches that could be as good as Maurice is. They are not given the chance.
It would be like saying there were no umps in Japan better than Angel Hernandez.
 
Aug 17, 2005
19,281
16,188
1. Refs are always the bad guy in any sport, regardless of how good they are. When people complain about the refs, they should really look at the quality elsewhere. NHL is comparable or better than most.

2. We have a Euro GM now and had another recently. Many Euros are working their way through front offices now. We could have European NHL coaches now (Igor Larionov has turned down jobs in the past), but we will soon... just a matter of time.

3. The NHL is a premier sports league. Despite being 4th rung in NA... it is still a top 5-10 league in the world. Behind NBA, NFL, MLB, and Premier League most certainly. In the same realm as Bundesliga, La Liga, Ligue 1, and Serie A. Ahead of MLS, IPL, NPB, AFL and CBA.

4. The NHL already has a strong foothold in Europe. Players want to play here and many European fans follow the NHL. Just look at all the Europeans here talking about hockey in the middle of vacation season.

I'd say a Euro division is more likely than a separate league. That's not likely until the NHL is looking at 42+ teams.
The NHL is going to take the bottom seven performing teams and relocate them all as the European Division.
 
  • Like
Reactions: McMetal
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad