Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[TheBeard]

Miro Heiskanen is a premium cost controlled asset, he's a borderline Norris caliber D signed for 4 more years (ages 26-29 seasons) at far below his market value, he's one of the most valuable assets in the entire league

That's the kind of value we'd need to send to get that player because outside of Celebrini (who is off the table) we have no single "win-now" asset that could compete with the bidding war he would command, we would have to present undeniable premium futures, even Eklund doesn't move the needle the way Dallas would need in that trade package, the core has to be built around Smith or #2OV or Dickinson or our unprotected 2026 1st

I think any package would need to include 3 of those 4 pieces and some.

Eklund on Dallas though would be interesting. I think if Dallas could hang onto Granlund, move him back to C, pair him with Ek and play Rants RW, it could be the best line in hockey.

 

[WSS11]

Miro Heiskanen is a premium cost controlled asset, he's a borderline Norris caliber D signed for 4 more years (ages 26-29 seasons) at far below his market value, he's one of the most valuable assets in the entire league

That's the kind of value we'd need to send to get that player because outside of Celebrini (who is off the table) we have no single "win-now" asset that could compete with the bidding war he would command, we would have to present undeniable premium futures, even Eklund doesn't move the needle the way Dallas would need in that trade package, the core has to be built around Smith or #2OV or Dickinson or our unprotected 2026 1st

You’re filling one hole and opening up two more and we’re still very far away from contention. I’m not trading a combo of Smith 2OV and Dickinson++ for Heiskanen. You’re essentially robbing Peter to pay Paul. That may be the price but I wouldn’t pay it.

You look at the steady list of contenders and champions over the years and teams like TB, FLA, Colorado, Chicago, PIT etc. drafted their core and kept it intact and built their roster around them as the core matured. They didn’t sell them off for a star player who was 6-8 years older.

 

[TheBeard]

You’re filling one hole and opening up two more and we’re still very far away from contention. I’m not trading a combo of Smith 2OV and Dickinson++ for Heiskanen. You’re essentially robbing Peter to pay Paul. That may be the price but I wouldn’t pay it.

You look at the steady list of contenders and champions over the years and teams like TB, FLA, Colorado, Chicago, PIT etc. drafted their core and kept it intact and built their roster around them as the core matured. They didn’t sell them off for a star player who was 6-8 years older.

Florida has like 3 drafted players in their lineup, and one of them, Ekblad may be one of the most underwhelming 10a of all time. Same with Colorado. Granted they're three near HoF locks, but the point is you don't need a plethora of drafted players in your lineup, you just need the high ones to hit.

 

[WSS11]

Florida has like 3 drafted players in their lineup, and one of them, Ekblad may be one of the most underwhelming 10a of all time. Same with Colorado. Granted they're three near HoF locks, but the point is you don't need a plethora of drafted players in your lineup, you just need the high ones to hit.

Exactly, it’s those highly drafted pieces that those teams built around. The panthers didn’t add the likes of Bob, Reinhart and Bennett until down the road when Ekblad, huberdeau and Barkov were in their mid to late 20’s. The exception was FLA trading one of those core pieces in Huberdeau for a younger Tkachuk once they were already contenders. They weren’t trading their young top 5 picks/prospects for older established players to rush the rebuild.

 

[weastern bias]

You’re filling one hole and opening up two more and we’re still very far away from contention. I’m not trading a combo of Smith 2OV and Dickinson++ for Heiskanen. You’re essentially robbing Peter to pay Paul. That may be the price but I wouldn’t pay it.

You look at the steady list of contenders and champions over the years and teams like TB, FLA, Colorado, Chicago, PIT etc. drafted their core and kept it intact and built their roster around them as the core matured. They didn’t sell them off for a star player who was 6-8 years older.

Maybe i misunderstood you thinking you meant "no we wouldn't" need to offer those kind of pieces instead of "no we wouldn't" have to consider that if it were available

I'm on the fence, I agree that we don't have the expendable assets to make that kind of deal at this point in the rebuild, but I am a huge Heiskanen truther and think he's the kind of rare and exceptional talent that doesn't become available very often, I'd consider trading any asset in the organization for him outside of Celebrini or Askarov

 

[TheBeard]

Exactly, it’s those highly drafted pieces that those teams built around. The panthers didn’t add the likes of Bob, Reinhart and Bennett until down the road when Ekblad, huberdeau and Barkov were in their mid to late 20’s. The exception was FLA trading one of those core pieces in Huberdeau for a younger Tkachuk once they were already contenders. They weren’t trading their young top 5 picks/prospects for older established players to rush the rebuild.

The reality is Barkov was the only one of those three that panned out for the club. Elblad is decent but nothing special and Huberdeau wouldn’t have won Florida anything. Lotta regular season points but a big nothing in the postseason. It’s really the same argument that the sharks can live off of Celebrini and whatever we can get in return for the rest.

 

[WSS11]

The reality is Barkov was the only one of those three that panned out for the club. Elblad is decent but nothing special and Huberdeau wouldn’t have won Florida anything. Lotta regular season points but a big nothing in the postseason. It’s really the same argument that the sharks can live off of Celebrini and whatever we can get in return for the rest.

I can think of far more disappointing 1OA’s than Ekblad (Yak, Lafreniere, Power, Slaf). The reality is in the two recent instances I can think of where teams dealt players that were previously top 5 picks, it was for a younger piece, not older (Drouin-> Sergachev, Huberdeau->Tkachuk). It was also during a time each team was looking to contend. The Sharks are not where TB and FLA were when the starting making these moves.

You mentioned Colorado.. They kept and built around Mack, Landeskog, and Makar. Not that I agree with the move and though he was not top 5, Rantanen was dealt for a younger player as well in Necas.

 

[WSS11]

Maybe i misunderstood you thinking you meant "no we wouldn't" need to offer those kind of pieces instead of "no we wouldn't" have to consider that if it were available

I'm on the fence, I agree that we don't have the expendable assets to make that kind of deal at this point in the rebuild, but I am a huge Heiskanen truther and think he's the kind of rare and exceptional talent that doesn't become available very often, I'd consider trading any asset in the organization for him outside of Celebrini or Askarov

The value is probably accurate in what Dallas would ask for but I’m saying I wouldn’t and don’t think Grier would based on where SJ is currently positioned in their rebuild.

 

[mogambomoroo]

Exactly, it’s those highly drafted pieces that those teams built around. The panthers didn’t add the likes of Bob, Reinhart and Bennett until down the road when Ekblad, huberdeau and Barkov were in their mid to late 20’s. The exception was FLA trading one of those core pieces in Huberdeau for a younger Tkachuk once they were already contenders. They weren’t trading their young top 5 picks/prospects for older established players to rush the rebuild.

I agree and would like to add that Tkachuk was pretty much on his way out of Calgary which helped get that deal done.

It's extremely crucial that MG is letting the core grow in peace and adds pieces that don't take away from that core. If we are one Will Smith trade away from the cup, it will happen in 6-7 years from now.

 

[TheBeard]

I can think of far more disappointing 1OA’s than Ekblad (Yak, Lafreniere, Power, Slaf). The reality is in the two recent instances I can think of where teams dealt players that were previously top 5 picks, it was for a younger piece, not older (Drouin-> Sergachev, Huberdeau->Tkachuk). It was also during a time each team was looking to contend. The Sharks are not where TB and FLA were when the starting making these moves.

You mentioned Colorado.. They kept and built around Mack, Landeskog, and Makar. Not that I agree with the move and though he was not top 5, Rantanen was dealt for a younger player as well in Necas.

Oh I’m not advocating for those moves yet. Don’t get me wrong. I do think there’s no harm in dipping our toe in the waters for the bigger guns like a Brady Tkachuk, but we’re not there yet.

 

[LinkGaetz23]

It's fun to think about Heiskanen, but don't you guys think it's way more likely they deal Oettinger to clear cap space given his treatment by Deboer? Feels like one of them has to go, if not both, and he clears almost as much cap space as Heiskanen.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

It's fun to think about Heiskanen, but don't you guys think it's way more likely they deal Oettinger to clear cap space given his treatment by Deboer? Feels like one of them has to go, if not both, and he clears almost as much cap space as Heiskanen.

Them trading Otter is more likely than trading Heiskanen but I’d expect DeBoer to get fired before either of them are moved.

 

[sampler]

Who would take otter? .905 then .909 save % with that cap hit and term. Hes a UFA in 2033. I have trouble seeing a thick market for him.

In all realism, a heiskenen trade is extremely unlikely, and wile I advocated for it and would love it, I doubt its possible. I do think dallas is gunna have to make some moves this summer, but March and Dumba are far more likely targets, and neither would be a materially important add other than making next year a bit more fun watching march.

And, looking at the top teams in the league (col, fla, edm...) Almost all of them have top pick cores but from 8+ years ago.

Mack, rant, land, makar all picked 2011-2017 (and thus age 26-32).
barkov, huber, ekblad: 2011-2014.
Mcdvid, Draisaitl, RNH, Nurse, Bouchard (2011-2018)

In other words, their cores began being drafted approximately 8-10 years before legit cup runs, and their home grown stars are virtually all in their mid to late 20's or early 30s. They also built those cores over 4-8 draft years.

According to that model, the sharks started in 2021 with ek, skipped '22, and then built in '23 and '24. and we will be drafting our core for two more drafts ending the core build in the 2026 draft. Then the cup window usually opens genuinely around 2030, and reaches it's height around 2032.

I do believe its possible to accelerate that a bit, but you cannot make a kid age faster or get more experience than time allows.

The best bet for grier is:

1. keep drafting, especially early. keep the #2OA and take misa or schaefer. and keep the sharks '26 pick.
2. Sign older UFA vets, like granny, to mentor the kids and buy time. Hope to be competitive even if not a legit contender.
3. be open to trading depth picks and prospects to start adding more complementary proven pieces around the core who age matches (23 or younger preferably, but no older than 25).
4. Be patient not to add guys who will be albatrosses around our neck in 4-5 years when the real window opens. This means adding no one over 25 to any term.

Then, around 2028, as your core starts needing to be resigned/extended and as the genuine competitive window approaches, then you can begin to get very aggressive in the trade/UFA market to build your cup winning team.

 

[sampler]

BTW, one way to accelerate the rebuild is to draft ridiculously well. For most of those teams I listed (edm, col, fla, etc), they got just one star per draft. Sometimes they also got one or two respectable complimentary pieces (like Klefbom, etc), but generally, just one star.

If guys like Cherny, Dick, or Musty ever emerge as top pair D or legit top 6F, then the sharks will be able to have multiple years with multiple stars picked each year. That allows the building of a super core much faster and opens the competitive window a couple years sooner.

Its concievable that a stanley cup core could be fully in place by this summer.

p.s.: I saw a 2024 redraft video that had Mack at 1OA, Dick at 4th OA, and Cherny 16th OA. Same guy had smith at 5th OA, musty 11th OA, and Cagnoni at 21st OA in a '23 redraft.

That means the sharks have drafted three players ranked in the top 5, and six players ranked in the top 21 of their draft years over the last two seasons. Thats INSANELY good. To get 3 players ranked in the top 21 of two consecutive drafts, including 2 Cs, 2 Ws, and 2Ds... wow!

If grier keeps all the picks this year, he'll get another star at 2OA and if he packages 30,33, and 53 to move up, he might snatch another future star somewhere in the middle of the 1st round. If he walks away from the '25 draft with two future stars, his job of stocking the farm will be done with possibly 3Cs, 3W, 3Ds, and 1G in house (and maybe more if Graf, Bystedt, LSW, Pohlkamp, etc works out).

While he's gotten a nice dose of luck (celebrini lottery, weird falling of dick to 11, and cherny to 33, along with getting #2 when #3 was most likely this year)... He's also had some nice skill (trading up to 11 from 14), selecting musty at '26, and also just getting those draft assets in the EK, Meier, and Hertl trades in the first place.

I top my hat to him, and I suppose now its just a matter of time, and GM skill to add the right surrounding pieces at the right time.

 

[sampler]

Lastly, while continuing to add draft assets always makes sense when dealing with to-be-UFA's at the deadline (like Granny, ceci, Blackwood, etc and upcoming ferraro, wennberg, etc), I wonder if Grier is gunna be done this summer stockpiling futures and start seeing any future picks (aside from any in the top 5) as trade chips?

In other words, I wonder if Grier is going to be eyeing the edm '26 pick, the SJ and COL 2nds, and any other picks he gets at the deadline as just pure trade fodder. It would be pretty easy to add some legit young players if you have multiple first and second rounders to dangle, akin to what NJ gave for Meier. I wonder if it will be much easier, and smarter, for grier to pull the trigger on getting established young players next summer?

 

[LinkGaetz23]

Who would take otter? .905 then .909 save % with that cap hit and term. Hes a UFA in 2033. I have trouble seeing a thick market for him.

In all realism, a heiskenen trade is extremely unlikely, and wile I advocated for it and would love it, I doubt its possible. I do think dallas is gunna have to make some moves this summer, but March and Dumba are far more likely targets, and neither would be a materially important add other than making next year a bit more fun watching march.

And, looking at the top teams in the league (col, fla, edm...) Almost all of them have top pick cores but from 8+ years ago.

Mack, rant, land, makar all picked 2011-2017 (and thus age 26-32).
barkov, huber, ekblad: 2011-2014.
Mcdvid, Draisaitl, RNH, Nurse, Bouchard (2011-2018)

In other words, their cores began being drafted approximately 8-10 years before legit cup runs, and their home grown stars are virtually all in their mid to late 20's or early 30s. They also built those cores over 4-8 draft years.

According to that model, the sharks started in 2021 with ek, skipped '22, and then built in '23 and '24. and we will be drafting our core for two more drafts ending the core build in the 2026 draft. Then the cup window usually opens genuinely around 2030, and reaches it's height around 2032.

I do believe its possible to accelerate that a bit, but you cannot make a kid age faster or get more experience than time allows.

The best bet for grier is:

1. keep drafting, especially early. keep the #2OA and take misa or schaefer. and keep the sharks '26 pick.
2. Sign older UFA vets, like granny, to mentor the kids and buy time. Hope to be competitive even if not a legit contender.
3. be open to trading depth picks and prospects to start adding more complementary proven pieces around the core who age matches (23 or younger preferably, but no older than 25).
4. Be patient not to add guys who will be albatrosses around our neck in 4-5 years when the real window opens. This means adding no one over 25 to any term.

Then, around 2028, as your core starts needing to be resigned/extended and as the genuine competitive window approaches, then you can begin to get very aggressive in the trade/UFA market to build your cup winning team.

Oettinger's deal doesn't seem that bad with the cap going up unless he falls off a cliff. It's not a sweetheart deal but hardly an albatross. And even if no one wants him, I think you'd rather throw in some future 2nds or something to clear cap room to deal Oettinger than deal Heiskanen on his contract.

 

[Sharkz4Fun]

I think any package would need to include 3 of those 4 pieces and some.

Eklund on Dallas though would be interesting. I think if Dallas could hang onto Granlund, move him back to C, pair him with Ek and play Rants RW, it could be the best line in hockey.

Heiskanen definitely isn't the guy but trading any 2 of 3 combination of Smith/2OA/Dickinson for a legit NHL player would be nice. Next year's first shouldn't be on the table for anything nor really should Eklund.

 

[sampler]

Oettinger's deal doesn't seem that bad with the cap going up unless he falls off a cliff. It's not a sweetheart deal but hardly an albatross. And even if no one wants him, I think you'd rather throw in some future 2nds or something to clear cap room to deal Oettinger than deal Heiskanen on his contract.

I would agree with you. I think, compared to a standard replacement, Oet is a lot easier to replace than Heis.

Besides, I dont think Grier suspects that the sharks are ready to pull the trigger on a big trade like Heis would require. He needs to see a full pro year of Musty, Cherny, Dick, and Lund first and along with a full NHL year of mukh, graf, and askarov (and afanasyev) as well as seeing what Cagnoni, Bystedt, and Ostapchuk can be. There are too many questions and unknowns, and it's too early, to sacrifice major futures for the surer thing, more near/middle term star.

 

[sampler]

Heiskanen definitely isn't the guy but trading any 2 of 3 combination of Smith/2OA/Dickinson for a legit NHL player would be nice. Next year's first shouldn't be on the table for anything nor really should Eklund.

Trading the 2OA for anyone over the age of 23 makes little sense. Misa or Shaefer are likely to be stars and importantly, they will cost sub $1M for three years. There is little chance Grier trades #2 for any established players, and it makes little sense given our timeline to do that.

I also think Dick has game changer potential too...

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Who would take otter? .905 then .909 save % with that cap hit and term. Hes a UFA in 2033. I have trouble seeing a thick market for him.

In all realism, a heiskenen trade is extremely unlikely, and wile I advocated for it and would love it, I doubt its possible. I do think dallas is gunna have to make some moves this summer, but March and Dumba are far more likely targets, and neither would be a materially important add other than making next year a bit more fun watching march.

And, looking at the top teams in the league (col, fla, edm...) Almost all of them have top pick cores but from 8+ years ago.

Mack, rant, land, makar all picked 2011-2017 (and thus age 26-32).
barkov, huber, ekblad: 2011-2014.
Mcdvid, Draisaitl, RNH, Nurse, Bouchard (2011-2018)

In other words, their cores began being drafted approximately 8-10 years before legit cup runs, and their home grown stars are virtually all in their mid to late 20's or early 30s. They also built those cores over 4-8 draft years.

According to that model, the sharks started in 2021 with ek, skipped '22, and then built in '23 and '24. and we will be drafting our core for two more drafts ending the core build in the 2026 draft. Then the cup window usually opens genuinely around 2030, and reaches it's height around 2032.

I do believe its possible to accelerate that a bit, but you cannot make a kid age faster or get more experience than time allows.

The best bet for grier is:

1. keep drafting, especially early. keep the #2OA and take misa or schaefer. and keep the sharks '26 pick.
2. Sign older UFA vets, like granny, to mentor the kids and buy time. Hope to be competitive even if not a legit contender.
3. be open to trading depth picks and prospects to start adding more complementary proven pieces around the core who age matches (23 or younger preferably, but no older than 25).
4. Be patient not to add guys who will be albatrosses around our neck in 4-5 years when the real window opens. This means adding no one over 25 to any term.

Then, around 2028, as your core starts needing to be resigned/extended and as the genuine competitive window approaches, then you can begin to get very aggressive in the trade/UFA market to build your cup winning team.

Believe me, there’s a good enough market for Otter for a deal to get done. There’s at least a dozen teams that could either use a starting goalie or put a deal together to upgrade their goalie situation. At least ten teams would probably give real value to get Otter out of Dallas. I hope for our sake that isn’t the case because our in to get better via Dallas is taking someone like Dumba off their hands and getting someone like Marchment or Bourque to do it.

 

[Lebanezer]

BTW, one way to accelerate the rebuild is to draft ridiculously well. For most of those teams I listed (edm, col, fla, etc), they got just one star per draft. Sometimes they also got one or two respectable complimentary pieces (like Klefbom, etc), but generally, just one star.

If guys like Cherny, Dick, or Musty ever emerge as top pair D or legit top 6F, then the sharks will be able to have multiple years with multiple stars picked each year. That allows the building of a super core much faster and opens the competitive window a couple years sooner.

Its concievable that a stanley cup core could be fully in place by this summer.

p.s.: I saw a 2024 redraft video that had Mack at 1OA, Dick at 4th OA, and Cherny 16th OA. Same guy had smith at 5th OA, musty 11th OA, and Cagnoni at 21st OA in a '23 redraft.

That means the sharks have drafted three players ranked in the top 5, and six players ranked in the top 21 of their draft years over the last two seasons. Thats INSANELY good. To get 3 players ranked in the top 21 of two consecutive drafts, including 2 Cs, 2 Ws, and 2Ds... wow!

If grier keeps all the picks this year, he'll get another star at 2OA and if he packages 30,33, and 53 to move up, he might snatch another future star somewhere in the middle of the 1st round. If he walks away from the '25 draft with two future stars, his job of stocking the farm will be done with possibly 3Cs, 3W, 3Ds, and 1G in house (and maybe more if Graf, Bystedt, LSW, Pohlkamp, etc works out).

While he's gotten a nice dose of luck (celebrini lottery, weird falling of dick to 11, and cherny to 33, along with getting #2 when #3 was most likely this year)... He's also had some nice skill (trading up to 11 from 14), selecting musty at '26, and also just getting those draft assets in the EK, Meier, and Hertl trades in the first place.

I top my hat to him, and I suppose now its just a matter of time, and GM skill to add the right surrounding pieces at the right time.

I understand the point you're trying to make here, but drafting well is a requirement for a rebuild, it’s not an accelerant. Accelerating a rebuild is limited to acquisitions that do not sacrifice any developing assets or draft picks. For example, all the talk about trading for Heiskanen, making that move sets the rebuild back significantly. Sacrificing 2 potential core pieces plus any supplemental pieces in the correct age range for a defensemen that is 6 years older than Celebrini and cannot realistically cover the loss of those core pieces is an absolutely terrible move.

 

[Sharkz4Fun]

Trading the 2OA for anyone over the age of 23 makes little sense. Misa or Shaefer are likely to be stars and importantly, they will cost sub $1M for three years. There is little chance Grier trades #2 for any established players, and it makes little sense given our timeline to do that.

I also think Dick has game changer potential too...

I'm definitely more excited for Dickinson than anyone else not in the NHL, I honestly just think the other two, all trolling aside, aren't valuable at all long term. I agree with some of what was already said that Schaefer/Misa seem far more likely to be 2nd pairing and middle 6 than otherwise, but I think Dick will be better and also fitting more on the 2nd pair so eventually you'll have to choose.

Of course this is for someone actually worth it though. They shouldn't necessarily fast track (that's trading Eklund) but they shouldn't wait around and hope players turn into something. That has worked like shit for teams so if good players are available you go for them.

 

[ThePlanet]

Of course this is for someone actually worth it though. They shouldn't necessarily fast track (that's trading Eklund) but they shouldn't wait around and hope players turn into something. That has worked like shit for teams so if good players are available you go for them.

Lacking patience has also worked like shit for teams. I've used Ottawa as an example several times in the past, and will continue to do so. Their acquisitions of Debrincat and Chychrun cost them the 7oa and 12oa picks in 2022 and 2023, respectively. One season later, both players ended up being traded for pennies on the dollar. While it's likely that both players asked to be traded for reasons that have not been publicly stated, winning does go a long way towards soothing hard feelings in pro sports. Imagine how frustrated we would be if we traded a high pick or a blue chip prospect for someone like Heiskanen, only for them to play like garbage because they're frustrated with the amount of losing that takes place, and we trade them at a greatly deflated value because they want out.

Be patient. Don't turn 12oa into Nick Jensen and a 3rd.

 

[Kcoyote3]

Pagnotta thinks we're going after Marner. Normally would write it off because Pagnotta, but he was actually right about a fair few things at the deadline this year.

 

[themelkman]

Marner is a little scary to me, the cap hit will be huge.

It has worked out before with guys like Tavares and Panarin, but its rare.