Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[weastern bias]

No more unrealistic then the flood of doomsday scenarios being presented. We all believe in Celebrini and he certainly seems like a player who has a better chance of improving rather than regressing, no? What kind of regression could we see from Will because he was awful the first half of the season so there was no regression to be had there. Obviously there will be bumps for anyone, but it's not unfathomable to expect your highly drafted talent who showed they belong to improve instead of regress. That's just a mindset stemming from far too many years of watching bad play and expecting worst case scenarios.

Askarov will be 23 when the season starts. Older than other highly-drafted stars like Oettinger (21), Vasilevski (20) and Swayman (22) when they became starters. If the belief is Askarov can't at least be as competent as Georgiev then why the hell did we give up a first and a prospect for him. If the team can get closer to the 3.10/.898 numbers from him than the 3.88/.875 we got from Georgiev that's really the difference of 25 goals if he got 35 starts.

All of those goalies played behind quality NHL D cores, until we know otherwise Askarov's top pair will be Ferraro-Mukhamadullin, he's being set up to fail right now, his stats are not entirely in his control

As for the forwards, there is a large chasm between "regressing" and "expecting a SIGNIFICANT improvement" in year two, and even if they do regress in year two its not a big deal, Nathan MacKinnon is an MVP and Stanley Cup winning 1C who was drafted 1st overall and his points per game dropped from .76 to .59 in year two, it certainly didn't mean that he wasn't going to live up to expectations

You are simply stressing results far too much given the point at which we are in our rebuild, totals in individual stats and team wins simply don't matter next year, not in the long run anyway

 

[Pinkfloyd]

No more unrealistic then the flood of doomsday scenarios being presented. We all believe in Celebrini and he certainly seems like a player who has a better chance of improving rather than regressing, no? What kind of regression could we see from Will because he was awful the first half of the season so there was no regression to be had there. Obviously there will be bumps for anyone, but it's not unfathomable to expect your highly drafted talent who showed they belong to improve instead of regress. That's just a mindset stemming from far too many years of watching bad play and expecting worst case scenarios.

Askarov will be 23 when the season starts. Older than other highly-drafted stars like Oettinger (21), Vasilevski (20) and Swayman (22) when they became starters. If the belief is Askarov can't at least be as competent as Georgiev then why the hell did we give up a first and a prospect for him. If the team can get closer to the 3.10/.898 numbers from him than the 3.88/.875 we got from Georgiev that's really the difference of 25 goals if he got 35 starts.

I think Celebrini has a great chance of improving but he has a good chance of getting injured too. Smith as a player may not regress to his rookie first half season but his second half season is still largely a limited player when he's not scoring. As for Askarov, you're comparing him to goalies that had playoff caliber teams in front of them when they became starters. I don't see what relevance that has to Askarov and the Sharks as a much worse team. A difference of 25 goals is an improvement but that still puts our season goal differential at -80 which would still be worst in the league by a healthy margin. I think he's more likely to keep the team in more games than they would otherwise. This assumes though that he stays healthy (not a safe assumption).

 

[TheBeard]

I think Celebrini has a great chance of improving but he has a good chance of getting injured too. Smith as a player may not regress to his rookie first half season but his second half season is still largely a limited player when he's not scoring. As for Askarov, you're comparing him to goalies that had playoff caliber teams in front of them when they became starters. I don't see what relevance that has to Askarov and the Sharks as a much worse team. A difference of 25 goals is an improvement but that still puts our season goal differential at -80 which would still be worst in the league by a healthy margin. I think he's more likely to keep the team in more games than they would otherwise. This assumes though that he stays healthy (not a safe assumption).

This is that basement comfort level I was talking about. Outside of the first 9 words, the rest of the post is nothing more than pessimistic outlook for the next year disguised as some sort of reality check for what we should logically expect.

"Celebrini has a good chance to get injured"

"Smith is still largely limited"

"Askarov staying healthy isn't a safe assumption"

 

[Pinkfloyd]

This is that basement comfort level I was talking about. Outside of the first 9 words, the rest of the post is nothing more than pessimistic outlook for the next year disguised as some sort of reality check for what we should logically expect.

"Celebrini has a good chance to get injured"

"Smith is still largely limited"

"Askarov staying healthy isn't a safe assumption"

Yeah because reality isn’t all rainbows and butterflies and the team is still not all that talented. Injuries are a real risk to account for. Ignoring it to be positive is a choice. Not an uncommon one but not a logical one.

Nothing you quoted is inaccurate in this context.

 

[TheBeard]

Ignoring it to be positive is a choice

As is anticipating it to be negative. This one, especially around here, is unfortunately all too common.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

As is anticipating it to be negative. This one, especially around here, is unfortunately all too common.

No it actually isn’t. Injuries always happen to every team. Some are luckier than others. Some teams can absorb the effects better than others because they have depth in talent that the Sharks don’t. One is reality. The other is self imposed delusion.

 

[Star Platinum]

Well yeah… this is just like Jux argument about the rising cap and my point was there are still dumb GMs that are going to do dumb things.

The million dollar question is do we think Grier is one of those dumb GMs?

I think… to this point… Grier has shown he and his staff do what you are discussing and are at least solid talent evaluators. He pulled Blackwood and Granlund off the scrap heap. The difference is just the stage of the team’s lifecycle. Instead of these guys being our forsling… they are trade assets.

He also seems to know how to find deals and late round draft picks (Luca).

He just needs time to bring this all together still.

Granlund and Blackwood almost certainly have some luck playing into the equation. And the Goodrow acquistion is a black eye. The Zetterlund deal may ultimately end up that way as well if he doesn't get value coming back, but we'll have to see about that one.

But yes, whether Grier is the type of guy who is going to find value outside of the very top of the draft we just don't know at this point. Most of the guys he's drafted after the first round are going to take years before we know if they are going to become contributors or not. But in the exercise of doing @TheBeard 's homework for him on Top 5 picks, I saw just how many late first round, early second round, and even later round picks Dallas has on their squad. If Grier ends up being an above average GM, he's gonna need some of those successes as well. You don't need to be a Top 3 GM in the league to win a Cup, but to have sustained success you have to be able to continually get value past the early first round of the draft.

 

[Skeksis25]

I can understand being guarded and trying to keep expectations low if the players in question were lower round picks and surprise prospects. Someone like Mukh I can understand being guarded about. I can understand going, "Well he needs to learn more" for people like him, Graf, etc. But Celebrini was a first overall pick. Smith was a top 5 pick. Askarov was a 11 overall pick that we then traded essentially two first rounders for. These are the type of guys I am obviously going to expect quite a bit from. And be quiet disappointed if they underwhelm. I will call it an organizational failure if they aren't good contributors.i will call it a development failure if they start regressing.

If they underwhelm and disappoint, then I'm willing to say it's a disappointment. I'm willing to be disappointed. If they cannot generate 5 more wins for us next season, then I am going to be disappointed. I'm not going to pre pacify myself by saying it's fine, 23 things could happen that make them not be good. If these guys don't turn out to be great, then where are we expecting greatness from? How many of these premium assets are we going to get to use?

 

[SJS1991]

Granlund and Blackwood almost certainly have some luck playing into the equation. And the Goodrow acquistion is a black eye. The Zetterlund deal may ultimately end up that way as well if he doesn't get value coming back, but we'll have to see about that one.

I know I’m going to catch hell for this, but …Why is it a black eye?

Also not saying you said this but why is Forsling proof of good evaluation from Zito to grab him off waivers… but grabbing Granlund and Blackwood is “luck”. Seem like these situations are the same, some good evaluation with alittle luck involved. If Zito is getting credit, Grier can too.

 

[TheBeard]

I know I’m going to catch hell for this, but …Why is it a black eye?

Also not saying you said this but why is Forsling proof of good evaluation from Zito to grab him off waivers… but grabbing Granlund and Blackwood is “luck”. Seem like these situations are the same, some good evaluation with alittle luck involved. If Zito is getting credit, Grier can too.

I think Blackwood was a fantastic acquisition by Grier. Granlund, however was luck as it was reported it was Dubas insistence he go the other way or else he’d just be bought out and there would be no first rounder coming back.

 

[one2gamble]

I know I’m going to catch hell for this, but …Why is it a black eye?

The entire hockey world outside of Grier knew he was cooked

 

[SJS1991]

The entire hockey world outside of Grier knew he was cooked

Counter argument… he didn’t get him for on ice play. Plus it only cost money/cap space.

Fans shouldn’t care about the money, that’s Hasso worry. Fans shouldn’t care about cap space… we are at a time in the build where this currently doesn’t matter.

That’s why I don’t see it as a black eye. It’s very easily reasoned. And it’s not bad at all.

 

[one2gamble]

Counter argument… he didn’t get him for on ice play. Plus it only cost money/cap space.

Fans shouldn’t care about the money, that’s Hasso worry. Fans shouldn’t care about cap space… we are at a time in the build where this currently doesn’t matter.

That’s why I don’t see it as a black eye. It’s very easily reasoned. And it’s not bad at all.

We care that he was on the ice, its not easily reasoned at all. He didnt want to be here, there is no reason to believe his off ice anything was worth it.

 

[SJS1991]

We care that he was on the ice, its not easily reasoned at all. He didnt want to be here, there is no reason to believe his off ice anything was worth it.

So a GM, who was an ex player, targeted Goodrow to bring him in… almost only ever talked about his off the ice qualities and leadership…. That is “no reason” to believe it was worth it?

He had the 17th highest TOI/G, this is at season end…. so this doesn’t factor Granlund or Zetterlund, Ceci, and Walman. So he likely drops to 22nd. He avg 13 mins a night.

He hardly mattered, in a season where W/L results didn’t matter.

He is here to grind and show young players how to work. He is here to show guys like Kovaleko… you don’t just get time because this roster is bad. You have to earn it and out work guys.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

So a GM, who was an ex player, targeted Goodrow to bring him in… almost only ever talked about his off the ice qualities and leadership…. That is “no reason” to believe it was worth it?

He had the 17th highest TOI/G, this is at season end…. so this doesn’t factor Granlund or Zetterlund, Ceci, and Walman. So he likely drops to 22nd. He avg 13 mins a night.

He hardly mattered, in a season where W/L results didn’t matter.

He is here to grind and show young players how to work. He is here to show guys like Kovaleko… you don’t just get time because this roster is bad. You have to earn it and out work guys.

And he fails at showing anyone how to work when he's not putting in any positive results.

 

[SJS1991]

And he fails at showing anyone how to work when he's not putting in any positive results.

How so? His work in the meeting room, on the practice ice, etc only matter if the results are there? The next question would be what is a “positive results”? A lot of times results aren’t there but coaches tell you to keep grinding because they will come. A lot goes into “results”. They are at the lvl 0 of getting guys doing the right habits etc.

Let’s not forget the dude also has his name on the cup more than anyone on the team and I’m going to go out on a limb and say in the organization. This is also part of my point… his on ice “results” now…. Don’t matter. That’s not why he is here.

If we were the Canes and get our teeth kicked in and had Goodrow taking meaningful minutes…. 100% agree. What the f is Grier doing?!?!?

They are the 32nd team of a 32 team league. This is a team culture play. And to call it a “black eye” is giving too much oxygen… to this minimal move.

 

[coooldude]

How so? His work in the meeting room, on the practice ice, etc only matter if the results are there? The next question would be what is a “positive results”? A lot of times results aren’t there but coaches tell you to keep grinding because they will come. A lot goes into “results”. They are at the lvl 0 of getting guys doing the right habits etc.

Let’s not forget the dude also has his name on the cup more than anyone on the team and I’m going to go out on a limb and say in the organization. This is also part of my point… his on ice “results” now…. Don’t matter. That’s not why he is here.

If we were the Canes and get our teeth kicked in and had Goodrow taking meaning from minutes…. 100% agree. What the f is Grier doing?!?!?

They are the 32nd team of a 32 team league. This is a team culture play. And to call it a “black eye” is giving too much oxygen… to this minimal move.

You are debating admirably, but there's no stopping the Goodrow hate until he's gone and we can move on to hating the next replacement level fourth liner.

 

[SJS1991]

You are debating admirably, but there's no stopping the Goodrow hate until he's gone and we can move on to hating the next replacement level fourth liner.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t want Goodrow on the team either. I agree with most, in that I’m sure we could find a 4th liner who is a team guy, does it the right way, etc etc …… and is ALSO a plus on the ice.

But I’m also not going to act like Goodrow is some mark against Grier and his ability to be a good to great GM.

It’s a nothing. Thats the guy Grier wants as a “culture” player? Fine whatever. At least Warso isn’t playing him top line minutes. He is exactly what he should be… a 4th liner, who can get shelled on the PK.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

How so? His work in the meeting room, on the practice ice, etc only matter if the results are there? The next question would be what is a “positive results”? A lot of times results aren’t there but coaches tell you to keep grinding because they will come. A lot goes into “results”. They are at the lvl 0 of getting guys doing the right habits etc.

Let’s not forget the dude also has his name on the cup more than anyone on the team and I’m going to go out on a limb and say in the organization. This is also part of my point… his on ice “results” now…. Don’t matter. That’s not why he is here.

If we were the Canes and get our teeth kicked in and had Goodrow taking meaningful minutes…. 100% agree. What the f is Grier doing?!?!?

They are the 32nd team of a 32 team league. This is a team culture play. And to call it a “black eye” is giving too much oxygen… to this minimal move.

Because the NHL is a results-oriented business as a player, as a coach, and as a manager. You can't lead by example, which is what the point of referencing championship experience is, if your work doesn't yield results that help the team. You don't build the right culture with the right habits if a player like Goodrow is failing to pull his weight. Goodrow was the 9th most used forward at even strength for players who played more than half the season in teal. He had seven even strength points. That is dreadful yet he got ice time. He was the top penalty killer on a team ranked 27th in the league. That is dreadful yet he continued to get ice time. That doesn't help the culture. That championship experience doesn't mean shit if you're letting a player like Goodrow off the hook for being a bad player and not doing anything about it.

If you want to call claiming Goodrow a team culture play, those are legitimate team culture negatives that are associated with continuing to play someone like Goodrow especially when he didn't even want to come here.

 

[Star Platinum]

You are debating admirably, but there's no stopping the Goodrow hate until he's gone and we can move on to hating the next replacement level fourth liner.

You think I don't have enough hatred left over for all the other fourth line plugs?

 

[SJS1991]

Because the NHL is a results-oriented business as a player, as a coach, and as a manager. You can't lead by example, which is what the point of referencing championship experience is, if your work doesn't yield results that help the team.

What results? What specific thing(s) is Goodrow uniquely on the hook for?

Goodrow was the 9th most used forward at even strength for players who played more than half the season in teal. He had seven even strength points.

So for the 3 guys on the panthers 4th line currently. Greer has the most in 17 points, Nosek has 9 and Gadjovach has 4. those are totals… on a cup team… So is production the main thing Goodrow needs to do? Because he seems to be inline with what cup teams get from their 4th liners… As for total team rankings… that involves the team not just Goodrow. The penalty kill might be better with better players and goaltenders.

That championship experience doesn't mean shit if you're letting a player like Goodrow off the hook for being a bad player and not doing anything about it.

The assumption here is that because he got ice time he never got called out? Given that we aren’t in meetings or on the practice ice we can’t know this element…

If you want to call claiming Goodrow a team culture play, those are legitimate team culture negatives that are associated with continuing to play someone like Goodrow especially when he didn't even want to come here.

Who are they going play instead of him? And he didn’t even want be here… is missing all the context. He was on a president trophy team the year before, going to a last place team.

He discussed this… he had no problems with SJ. He loved his time here. He had issues with NYR and the shock of going from playoffs to no playoffs.

Once he knew what the ask was… he did that and gave no trouble to SJ. That’s what a professional does, and is valuable to illustrate to the rest of the team. Might be why he got ice time…. Almost to say, we all might suck but this culture rewards going about this the right way.

 

[TheBeard]

How so? His work in the meeting room, on the practice ice, etc only matter if the results are there? The next question would be what is a “positive results”? A lot of times results aren’t there but coaches tell you to keep grinding because they will come. A lot goes into “results”. They are at the lvl 0 of getting guys doing the right habits etc.

Let’s not forget the dude also has his name on the cup more than anyone on the team and I’m going to go out on a limb and say in the organization. This is also part of my point… his on ice “results” now…. Don’t matter. That’s not why he is here.

If we were the Canes and get our teeth kicked in and had Goodrow taking meaningful minutes…. 100% agree. What the f is Grier doing?!?!?

They are the 32nd team of a 32 team league. This is a team culture play. And to call it a “black eye” is giving too much oxygen… to this minimal move.

I too am confused. On one hand I’ve been told results and production don’t matter as long as there is development, but at the same time Goodrow is also a bad pickup because he didn’t produce hence has no other value?

 

[Pinkfloyd]

What results? What specific thing(s) is Goodrow uniquely on the hook for?


So for the 3 guys on the panthers 4th line currently. Greer has the most in 17 points, Nosek has 9 and Gadjovach has 4. those are totals… on a cup team… So is production the main thing Goodrow needs to do? Because he seems to be inline with what cup teams get from their 4th liners… As for total team rankings… that involves the team not just Goodrow. The penalty kill might be better with better players and goaltenders.


The assumption here is that because he got ice time he never got called out? Given that we aren’t in meetings or on the practice ice we can’t know this element…


Who are they going play instead of him? And he didn’t even want be here… is missing all the context. He was on a president trophy team the year before, going to a last place team.

He discussed this… he had no problems with SJ. He loved his time here. He had issues with NYR and the shock of going from playoffs to no playoffs.

Once he knew what the ask was… he did that and gave no trouble to SJ. That’s what a professional does, and is valuable to illustrate to the rest of the team. Might be why he got ice time…. Almost to say, we all might suck but this culture rewards going about this the right way.

His results. The results he is responsible for because he's the one physically taking the shifts. That's not unique to him and it doesn't need to be. The base level of accountability on any professional team is required for the culture to be even just not toxic. Comparing him to 4th liners on other teams means nothing when his ice time is that of a 3rd liner here. Plenty of players got publicly called out over the course of this season for not performing well. Goodrow was at the very least on par with practically anyone who did get called out. That, to me, doesn't even matter. The only accountability that really matters as it relates to Goodrow is that he shouldn't be in the lineup anymore. You can literally pick anyone else to play instead of him to achieve similar or better results. Him discussing it doesn't mean he wanted to be here. He can have no problems with San Jose and still not want to be here. I don't have a problem saying that Goodrow has handled the waivers thing like a professional. It doesn't mean that doing so means what he brings is valuable. It isn't without on-ice play to legitimize it and him as a player. Giving this kind of cover to Goodrow is holding him to a different standard than anyone else at his depth level and it doesn't help the team or its culture to sweep that under the rug.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I too am confused. On one hand I’ve been told results and production don’t matter as long as there is development, but at the same time Goodrow is also a bad pickup because he didn’t produce hence has no other value?

You cannot truly say that Goodrow developed anything or anyone.

 

[SJS1991]

I too am confused. On one hand I’ve been told results and production don’t matter as long as there is development, but at the same time Goodrow is also a bad pickup because he didn’t produce hence has no other value?

Are you just saying this in general? Or referencing something I said?

Because I never thought Goodrow was he to “produce”. That’s my whole argument… that’s why he can be garbage on the ice. And everyone with the Sharks will talk glowingly about him.

There are certain players that need to produce… there are certain players that need to develop… there are other players that honestly just don’t matter.