Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[hockfan1991]

This was my whole point. I forget who it was originally who mentioned that even if the team goes back to 19 wins they don't mind because it's all about the development of the players. And to me, the two are mutually exclusive. I'm not expecting more than 25 wins and 30 would be a monumental but attainable achievement.

" The Dark side of the Moon"

 

[TheBeard]

I mean maybe… but I think it’s mostly people don’t want to rush a rebuild if it’s going to fall flat. That’s the concern.

This type of deal can’t be made… but I think most would say if we come out of the rebuild and have a Tampa bay style run or Penguin style run and it only take us suffering thru 2 more season of bottom 10 even 5 finishes to get a few more premium assets, fans would do that all day.

My point is people don’t want to get caught in this middle ground like Detroit etc. If the sharks need to lose more to secure a 10 + year run… so be it. People don’t want to rush it to just get alittle pain relief next season or the season after. Let’s just do all this losing at once and when we put it behind us…. It’s behind us.

I don’t think either of those teams are good examples. Tampa walked away with a 1 and a 3 in consecutive drafts but for the most part that was it for their rebuild. Everyone else that meant anything were drafted either late first round or beyond.

Pitts, same thing really. They got 4 high end guys in 4 drafts and that was all for them. Just so happens 3 of them are hall of famers.

Again, getting better isn’t “rushing the rebuild”. You have to get better, even nominally, ever year. Otherwise you become the Buffalo Sabres.

 

[TheBeard]

Yeah, we kind of did. The team that started the season was every bit as capable of going on extended losing streaks as they were going on what looks like a heater to them pacing out for 26-27 wins.

I believe the team was like 10-15-2 when they traded Blackwood, and that was with Celebrini missing a month and Smith being a liability that whole time. I believe in the few games Celebrini and Blackwood were in the lineup together they were above .500.

 

[Sleeper Shark]

Yeah, we kind of did. The team that started the season was every bit as capable of going on extended losing streaks as they were going on what looks like a heater to them pacing out for 26-27 wins. You're putting blinders on because of your disappointment in acquiring Georgiev and how that played out. I agree though that Grier is likely to pick up players to improve the roster. I just don't think it's all that realistic to fill all the gaps we're looking at with solid acquisitions and that things can't happen to where the season bottoms out for the team.

I don't know why you believe it's some comfort zone for losing thing. It's an understanding that it's what is best for the team in their eyes. If you're not a playoff team, getting better odds at a better draft pick gets you the best talent available in the draft and that's the most reliable way for a team like ours with limitations on the open markets to get better down the road. You don't have to like that but it's true even if there are going to be bumps in the road down that way. It should be easy for fans without any actual control in the situation to shrug off losing because it's unproductive to hold on to it. Getting marginally better in the points department is not going to make you feel that much better with the losing either. Losing still sucks but the most productive use out of the losing is the experience and the draft positioning. Everything else is just noise.

Exactly. Improving by 25 points in the standings still has the Sharks in the bottom third of the league easily.

 

[Patty Ice]

There's a difference between losing on accident because the GM signed a bunch of 30 year olds to retirement contracts then f***ed off to Scottsdale while leaving his idiot son in charge and losing as part of a concerted strategy to accumulate high-end young players and reconfigure your cap structure.

Tell us how you really feel about the late Wilson era

 

[SJS1991]

I don’t think either of those teams are good examples. Tampa walked away with a 1 and a 3 in consecutive drafts but for the most part that was it for their rebuild. Everyone else that meant anything were drafted either late first round or beyond.

Pitts, same thing really. They got 4 high end guys in 4 drafts and that was all for them. Just so happens 3 of them are hall of famers.

Again, getting better isn’t “rushing the rebuild”. You have to get better, even nominally, ever year. Otherwise you become the Buffalo Sabres.

For context I wasn’t saying Tampa and Pittsburgh are good avatars for the Sharks current rebuild, it was more about the level of success (multiple cups).

Your point is well taken, that success doesn’t hurt rebuilds. I wasn’t trying to say that, if that’s how it read than that’s my mistake. My simple point is I don’t think fans are comfortable being dead last because we have gotten use to the losing.

It’s more out of an understanding that premium assets are really only acquire through getting top picks. And it’s these premium assets that will be the main fuel used to get SJ out of the basement. Rather they are players for SJ or are assets to get the players that will be sharks.

And to your point about Pittsburgh… maybe SJ has enough now…. Maybe Celebrini, Smith, Dickinson, Misa?, and Askarvo are enough… if they are all Hall of Famers. I just think most have a sense of 2/3 premium assets are needed to finish off the Foundation. Luckily the 2OA should be 1 of the 2/3 and I think most feel next years 1st rounder would be the second one and all the other prospects/ picks they have acquired will lead to the third (if needed).

 

[TheBeard]

It’s more out of an understanding that premium assets are really only acquire through getting top picks. And it’s these premium assets that will be the main fuel used to get SJ out of the basement. Rather they are players for SJ or are assets to get the players that will be sharks

I agree with everything else you said except for this part, and the proof is final 4 this year. How many top 5 picks are on Dallas? Carolina?

Being a top team, it’s 35% hitting on the premium picks and 65% a front office who can find the ideal pieces either later in the draft or in trade. Florida was able to do that and you see the result. Edmonton, for the most part, has failed in that department and the result is even with two of arguably the 4 or 5 best players on the game and arguably one of the ten best all time, they still can’t get the job done.

 

[Skeksis25]

I find it very hard to fathom that an organization could produce three straight 20 win, 45-50 point seasons and tell people that this is fine, this is the process. Specially when the GM, Coach and franchise player have said they want to start the turnaround.

Why would it change the year after that too? Why not go into the following year also saying 20 wins is our goal, that is the process?

 

[SJS1991]

I agree with everything else you said except for this part, and the proof is final 4 this year. How many top 5 picks are on Dallas? Carolina?

Being a top team, it’s 35% hitting on the premium picks and 65% a front office who can find the ideal pieces either later in the draft or in trade. Florida was able to do that and you see the result. Edmonton, for the most part, has failed in that department and the result is even with two of arguably the 4 or 5 best players on the game and arguably one of the ten best all time, they still can’t get the job done.

Specifically Dallas… they have 3 players that were drafted in the top 5, 6 players drafted in the top 10. 14 players are first rounders.

To do the due diligence and be crazy accurate, we would need to see every asset they spent to get these guys. That’s my point about getting the premium assets… it’s more of just the quality of the asset to set up ALL the other stuff. If you make quality into quantity etc.

I don’t disagree with your build out. The only issue is like I said in another thread… part of this is the luck of situations. Grier may have gotten crazy lucky with the Askarvo situation. This is why I want him to have premium assets, so when the time comes he can have the ammo to make those deals.

To your other example… the panthers needed a 3OA pick in huberdeau, another 1st, a good defenseman they developed and another prospect… to get Tkachuk. They selected Ekblad 1OA. Barkov 2OA. Reinhart, Bennett, and Seth Jones all required different levels of 1st rounders and 2nd rounders to get. And those guys were top 10 picks.

Point being… you need a war chest. Then you have to find the buying low items (Reinhart and Bennetts) and when the premium piece are available (Tkachuk) you have to have the assets to go get.

 

[Star Platinum]

I don’t really want to improve the roster so that we finish higher in the standings, I want to make sure the environment is is optimal for our young players to develop

 

[Star Platinum]

There's a difference between losing on accident because the GM signed a bunch of 30 year olds to retirement contracts then f***ed off to Scottsdale while leaving his idiot son in charge and losing as part of a concerted strategy to accumulate high-end young players and reconfigure your cap structure.

 

[Star Platinum]

" The Dark side of the Moon"

And if the lack of wins makes the fanbase jeer
The person you should blame is named Mike Grier
And if the GM's trading picks for different goons
I'll see you on the dark side of the moon

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I believe the team was like 10-15-2 when they traded Blackwood, and that was with Celebrini missing a month and Smith being a liability that whole time. I believe in the few games Celebrini and Blackwood were in the lineup together they were above .500.

They were 10-15-5 when they traded Blackwood. They were 4-5-1 with Blackwood starting and Celebrini in the lineup. That is hardly enough games to really get an understanding of how a team is going to be for a full season. In Blackwood's case, it wasn't going to matter much since he was an expiring contract that we weren't going to re-sign because of Askarov.

 

[SJS1991]

Looking at RFAs and teams that are likely up against it cap wise…. How does everyone feel about Bourque in Dallas?

He has been scratched during the playoffs. But he might be easily had with just a simple trade offer to Dallas.

 

[Star Platinum]

I agree with everything else you said except for this part, and the proof is final 4 this year. How many top 5 picks are on Dallas? Carolina?

Duchene (Colorado - 3), Heiskanen (Dallas - 3), Seguin (Boston -2). If you expand it to Top 7, you can add two more.
Svechnikov (Carolina -2), Hall (Edmonton - 1), Staal (Pittsburgh - 2), Kotkaniemi (Montreal - 3)

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Looking at RFAs and teams that are likely up against it cap wise…. How does everyone feel about Bourque in Dallas?

He has been scratched during the playoffs. But he might be easily had with just a simple trade offer to Dallas.

If they make him available for a reasonable price, he'd be a fine target. I'd take Dumba off their hands to have Bourque for like a 3rd round pick.

 

[TheBeard]

Duchene (Colorado - 3), Heiskanen (Dallas - 3), Seguin (Boston -2). If you expand it to Top 7, you can add two more.
Svechnikov (Carolina -2), Hall (Edmonton - 1), Staal (Pittsburgh - 2), Kotkaniemi (Montreal - 3)

This is extremely disingenuous seeing as only one from each team was actually drafted by their team, 2 are on their, like 5th team, Kotkaniemi is a role player who was essentially a bust draft pick and Seguin and Steal have been with their respective teams as free agents. Basically two players in that list obtained by being a bad team and drafting high.

 

[Star Platinum]

This is extremely disingenuous seeing as only one from each team was actually drafted by their team, 2 are on their, like 5th team, Kotkaniemi is a role player who was essentially a bust draft pick and Seguin and Steal have been with their respective teams as free agents. Basically two players in that list obtained by being a bad team and drafting high.

You asked a question. I answered it. Bill is in the mail.

 

[TheBeard]

They were 10-15-5 when they traded Blackwood. They were 4-5-1 with Blackwood starting and Celebrini in the lineup. That is hardly enough games to really get an understanding of how a team is going to be for a full season. In Blackwood's case, it wasn't going to matter much since he was an expiring contract that we weren't going to re-sign because of Askarov.

Again, I'm not denying that nor the moves Grier made, but the point is the team they started with was not remotely close to the same team that was simply awful for the last half of the season. I firmly expect Will to have at least a more consistent year next year in that he won't be a complete liability for the first 41 games. I expect Celebrini to be SIGNIFICANTLY better production wise because there's no reason to think he won't elevate his game. I expect SIGNIFICANTLY better goaltending post-backwood as even Askarov's off-nights would be at least on par with Georgie's average night. Finding replacements for guys who teams basically paid us to take won't be that difficult either. Ceci and Walman are third pairing guys.

That's all I'm going to say on the topic. If you don't think a sub-20 win season is a bad thing then that's certainly your right. I just absolutely do not see a world in which we revert back to that while also getting improved play from key forwards/goaltending.

 

[TheBeard]

To your other example… the panthers needed a 3OA pick in huberdeau, another 1st, a good defenseman they developed and another prospect… to get Tkachuk. They selected Ekblad 1OA. Barkov 2OA. Reinhart, Bennett, and Seth Jones all required different levels of 1st rounders and 2nd rounders to get. And those guys were top 10 picks.

Point being… you need a war chest. Then you have to find the buying low items (Reinhart and Bennetts) and when the premium piece are available (Tkachuk) you have to have the assets to go get.

I think you need a GM who is a good talent evaluator like Bill Zito and Dale Tallon were. Finding guys like Weegar in the 7th round. Nabbing prizes like Verhaegue and Forsling off the scrap heap pile, targeting the correct pieces in trade like Luosteranian for Trocheck, Sam Bennett for a 2nd... it requires more than just drafting high. Obviously yeah when you're a contender, you make the immediate moves to maximize your chances and obviously we're not there yet.

 

[SJS1991]

I think you need a GM who is a good talent evaluator like Bill Zito and Dale Tallon were. Finding guys like Weegar in the 7th round. Nabbing prizes like Verhaegue and Forsling off the scrap heap pile, targeting the correct pieces in trade like Luosteranian for Trocheck, Sam Bennett for a 2nd... it requires more than just drafting high. Obviously yeah when you're a contender, you make the immediate moves to maximize your chances and obviously we're not there yet.

Well yeah… this is just like Jux argument about the rising cap and my point was there are still dumb GMs that are going to do dumb things.

The million dollar question is do we think Grier is one of those dumb GMs?

I think… to this point… Grier has shown he and his staff do what you are discussing and are at least solid talent evaluators. He pulled Blackwood and Granlund off the scrap heap. The difference is just the stage of the team’s lifecycle. Instead of these guys being our forsling… they are trade assets.

He also seems to know how to find deals and late round draft picks (Luca).

He just needs time to bring this all together still.

 

[OrrNumber4]

I think that Grier has shown to have pretty good pro-scouting. Early returns on amateur scouting are very promising, but only time will tell.

This year will be a big test of his ability to negotiate contracts.

We'll never know 100% about trades, but generally, I feel like he hasn't maximized value.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Again, I'm not denying that nor the moves Grier made, but the point is the team they started with was not remotely close to the same team that was simply awful for the last half of the season. I firmly expect Will to have at least a more consistent year next year in that he won't be a complete liability for the first 41 games. I expect Celebrini to be SIGNIFICANTLY better production wise because there's no reason to think he won't elevate his game. I expect SIGNIFICANTLY better goaltending post-backwood as even Askarov's off-nights would be at least on par with Georgie's average night. Finding replacements for guys who teams basically paid us to take won't be that difficult either. Ceci and Walman are third pairing guys.

That's all I'm going to say on the topic. If you don't think a sub-20 win season is a bad thing then that's certainly your right. I just absolutely do not see a world in which we revert back to that while also getting improved play from key forwards/goaltending.

No but you can't ignore the dips that they did have just because of this, that, or another reason because those very things can still happen next season. Celebrini is still only going to be 19 and they made a huge deal to inform the audience that teens get injured at a higher rate in the NHL. I understand expecting better from players at their age but they often fail to get better from one particular season to the next especially at these particular players' age and experience level. Askarov clearly flashes a lot of ability at his position but for all that, he was still below average in his opportunity. The team is still more likely than not to be sellers at the trade deadline that will make them worse. Askarov and any other goalie acquired has just as good of chance of getting injured as Blackwood and Vanecek and Askarov did in their times in the Sharks' organization.

As for the blue line, I'm a little more generous than you at least with Walman. I think he's a top four quality defenseman but I'm nowhere near as confident as most here that we're truly capable of finding quality replacements in the sense that they'd be significantly better options right now. The market looks to be pretty slim pickings but who knows? I would be over the moon if we only ended up signing Dante Fabbro and had a blue line that was Mukhamadullin-Fabbro, Ferraro-Liljegren, and Cagnoni or Dickinson-Desharnais. There's plenty of youth and inexperience and injury potential in that group. Fabbro could prove to be a one-hit wonder playing off of Werenski when he was one of the best d-men in the league. The blue line can still be bad enough to sabotage team results for an improved group forward and goaltending (though I'm not really expecting better goaltending). Askarov's possible seasons as a rookie at his age is all over the map and most goalies available to us to play with Askarov is probably not anything more than an average level goalie. That with a rookie can easily have issues behind a bad blue line. They can still improve but they can still lose a lot with it.

 

[weastern bias]

I firmly expect Will to have at least a more consistent year next year in that he won't be a complete liability for the first 41 games. I expect Celebrini to be SIGNIFICANTLY better production wise because there's no reason to think he won't elevate his game. I expect SIGNIFICANTLY better goaltending post-backwood as even Askarov's off-nights would be at least on par with Georgie's average night.

These are unrealistic expectations

To expect all-caps SIGNIFICANT improvements from a first year starting goaltender, a 19 year old sophomore and a 20 year old sophomore is asking to be disappointed

 

[TheBeard]

These are unrealistic expectations

To expect all-caps SIGNIFICANT improvements from a first year starting goaltender, a 19 year old sophomore and a 20 year old sophomore is asking to be disappointed

No more unrealistic then the flood of doomsday scenarios being presented. We all believe in Celebrini and he certainly seems like a player who has a better chance of improving rather than regressing, no? What kind of regression could we see from Will because he was awful the first half of the season so there was no regression to be had there. Obviously there will be bumps for anyone, but it's not unfathomable to expect your highly drafted talent who showed they belong to improve instead of regress. That's just a mindset stemming from far too many years of watching bad play and expecting worst case scenarios.

Askarov will be 23 when the season starts. Older than other highly-drafted stars like Oettinger (21), Vasilevski (20) and Swayman (22) when they became starters. If the belief is Askarov can't at least be as competent as Georgiev then why the hell did we give up a first and a prospect for him. If the team can get closer to the 3.10/.898 numbers from him than the 3.88/.875 we got from Georgiev that's really the difference of 25 goals if he got 35 starts.