Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Hodge]

I don't think you have to move Eklund, but you're prepared to move any of the non-Celebrini (non-Marner due to NMC) assets for an elite defender. Not sure if I'd move Eklund for Dobson in that scenario. I probably would, but don't love Dobson.

Edvinsson, Power, Faber, Seider, ect? Absolutely.

I like Eklund but if we're trading him for a defenseman it's probably going to be someone like Erik Cernak or Zach Whitecloud rather than Dobson or Power let alone Faber or Seider. Small soft wingers just aren't that valuable.

 

[sampler]

Most of all, the sharks need to build practically an entire Defense. Mukh may or may not be a solid NHLer. Dick may or may not be a solid NHLer. They have literally zero proven NHLers aside from ferraro, who is no better than a midpair. I dont care who plays forward, you cannot win without a solid top 4-5D.

Obviously signing forwards does not preclude from building the D, but grier has to look there for any chance of building a contender. Futhermore, while schaefer, dick, and mukh would be a very nice backbone, we need some very high quality proven guys too. Like THREE of them!

The needs of this team are 3-4proven NHL beefy forwards (3C and a few top 6W... sorry grier, osty aint gunna do it). 2-3 Proven NHL top 4 Dmen. If/When grier decides to build a winning roster, rather than placeholders and future asset fodder, these are the guys he has to get. marchment can be one to get this summer. bennett possibly too. Boeser maybe. But whoever he signs, it should be either one of those roles or TDL fodder.

p.s.: I too would not be shocked to see Eklund moved. That said, if they get lots of beef, they dont have to move him. However, if they get a deal for a legit, young top pair D, they gotta pull that trigger.

After Walman and Ceci got dealt, you could see what happens to a team without real defensemen. Sharks went 5-23 after ceci was moved. 3-16 after walman. If you can put out two high quality defensemen on the ice at all times, it revolutionizes your team. Suddenly you are playing 5 on 5 in the O zone instead of 3 on 5. the forward get more space, pucks get through to the net. Its a totally different game.

I genuinely believe that the sharks may be much much closer to PO's than we think. A few key D, a few big skilled wingers, and it could be very interesting. But we could add 5 marners, and we'd still be terrible with the current D.

 

[sampler]

I like Eklund but if we're trading him for a defenseman it's probably going to be someone like Erik Cernak or Zach Whitecloud rather than Dobson or Power let alone Faber or Seider. Small soft wingers just aren't that valuable.

No way they trade Ek for guys like that. If they move ek, it will be a dobson level top pair guy under 26.

That said, Grier has to start building the D eventually, and he cannot do it exclusively through the draft even if they get lucky and grab schaefer at #2. Dick, schaefer, mukh sounds good, but they wont be readyto play 25 mins/gm and lead a playoff team for at least 3-4 years. And even then, legit contenders have to have multiple legit top 4 vets in addition to the home grown guys.

Goal scoring is important: The bottom 7 teams in GFA did not make POs. But goals against is even MORE important (the bottom 10 in GA/gm missed, and in fact Montreal was the pnly PO team in the bottom 16. bascially, the GA standings determined the POs. To have great GAand solid GF, you need veteran quality, two-way D. I think the top pair D are the two most important players on a team.

If Grier is going to trade Eklund, he needs to do so to fill one of those two slots.

 

[Hodge]

No way they trade Ek for guys like that. If they move ek, it will be a dobson level top pair guy under 26.

That said, Grier has to start building the D eventually, and he cannot do it exclusively through the draft even if they get lucky and grab schaefer at #2. Dick, schaefer, mukh sounds good, but they wont be readyto play 25 mins/gm and lead a playoff team for at least 3-4 years. And even then, legit contenders have to have multiple legit top 4 vets in addition to the home grown guys.

Goal scoring is important: The bottom 7 teams in GFA did not make POs. But goals against is even MORE important (the bottom 10 in GA/gm missed, and in fact Montreal was the pnly PO team in the bottom 16. bascially, the GA standings determined the POs. To have great GAand solid GF, you need veteran quality, two-way D. I think the top pair D are the two most important players on a team.

If Grier is going to trade Eklund, he needs to do so to fill one of those two slots.

Eklund is a 5'10 winger who doesn't score goals. How is that remotely worth a top pairing defenseman under 26?

 

[matt trick]

I like Eklund but if we're trading him for a defenseman it's probably going to be someone like Erik Cernak or Zach Whitecloud rather than Dobson or Power let alone Faber or Seider. Small soft wingers just aren't that valuable.

If they don’t want to pay him $9-10M+, I bet Eklund+ is a strong offer for Dobson. For Seider or Faber I’d move Smith or Misa.

 

[LadyStanley]

 

[Hodge]

If they don’t want to pay him $9-10M+, I bet Eklund+ is a strong offer for Dobson. For Seider or Faber I’d move Smith or Misa.

Maybe if the + is our 2026 1st. I guess whoever takes over on the Island could be a huge Eklund fan who thinks he has point per game+ upside but I doubt it.

 

[weastern bias]

If you're gonna throw out irresponsible contracts I'd rather spend around $20M to try and pry Ekblad and Bennett out of Florida than to spend $15M on Mitch Marner

Ekblad $10Mx7y
Bennett $9Mx7y

Both are bad contracts, but so is Marner at $15Mx7y, yet you're only spending $4M more per season on the cap and you fill two roster holes instead of one, both of them more pressing needs than a skilled winger (top-pair RHD, gritty and physical forward who can play center or wing), and the players actually bring championship experience instead of a history of playoff disappointments

It also is more likely you actually get one of them to sign since you can handcuff Florida by offering two overvalued deals to UFAs from the same team

I'm still not huge on the idea of paying out a ton of money in this poor free agency class, but if I were to do so those two are my prime targets

 

[Hodge]

If you're gonna throw out irresponsible contracts I'd rather spend around $20M to try and pry Ekblad and Bennett out of Florida than to spend $15M on Mitch Marner

Ekblad $10Mx7y
Bennett $9Mx7y

Both are bad contracts, but so is Marner at $15Mx7y, yet you're only spending $4M more per season on the cap and you fill two roster holes instead of one, both of them more pressing needs than a skilled winger (top-pair RHD, gritty and physical forward who can play center or wing), and the players actually bring championship experience instead of a history of playoff disappointments

It also is more likely you actually get one of them to sign since you can handcuff Florida by offering two overvalued deals to UFAs from the same team

I'm still not huge on the idea of paying out a ton of money in this poor free agency class, but if I were to do so those two are my prime targets

I mean if we're just dreaming here why not sign all three of them? It's not like we lack the cap space. Then trade whatever you can (including Eklund and/or the 2026 1st if necessary) to move up to 1st overall and draft Schaefer.

Chernyshov-Celebrini-Marner
X-Bennett-Smith

Schaefer-Ekblad
Dickinson-Mukhamadullin

Askarov

Do even a half decent job filling out the rest of the roster over the next couple of years and we could enter a contention window.

 

[Patty Ice]

If you're gonna throw out irresponsible contracts I'd rather spend around $20M to try and pry Ekblad and Bennett out of Florida than to spend $15M on Mitch Marner

Ekblad $10Mx7y
Bennett $9Mx7y

Both are bad contracts, but so is Marner at $15Mx7y, yet you're only spending $4M more per season on the cap and you fill two roster holes instead of one, both of them more pressing needs than a skilled winger (top-pair RHD, gritty and physical forward who can play center or wing), and the players actually bring championship experience instead of a history of playoff disappointments

It also is more likely you actually get one of them to sign since you can handcuff Florida by offering two overvalued deals to UFAs from the same team

I'm still not huge on the idea of paying out a ton of money in this poor free agency class, but if I were to do so those two are my prime targets

While I don't disagree with your thought, what is their motivation for signing with the Sharks?

The only reason I'm entertaining the notion of Marner signing with the Sharks is his relationship with Marleau and Thornton. I definitely can believe a scenario where they entice him with the environment. A place where he can be a leader among a young talented group and bring them back into a successful franchise. I think that is a plausible scenario that could play out if Grier pursues it and makes a competitive offer.

 

[matt trick]

Vegas cup winning team's top 9 was not massive. Stone is 6'3, Eichel is 6'2, and Roy (3C/W) is 6'4, but top 9 forwards Karlsson, Stephenson, Barbashev, Kessel and Marchessault are all 6'0 or less, and Smith is 6'1. Their fourth line and D are also very big: Pietro/McNabb/Hague (6'4+) and Theodore/Hutton/WhiteCloud/Howden/Colesar/Carrier (6'2).

The blues forwards, despite well-developed elbows, were actually smaller than a Marchment/Cherny inclusive forward core. Only three forwards over 6'1 (6'3 Maroon, Sundqvist, Sanford) and those three spent a decent chunk of time on the fourth line. Their top three scorers- Oreilly, Taransenko, and Schenn were 6'1, while Perron (6'0), Bozak (6'1), Schwarts (5'10), and Thomas (6'0) were the depth scorers. Now, Parayko (6'6), Pietro (6'4), Jaybouw (6'4), Edmudsson (6'5), Bortuzzo (6'4), and Gunnarsson (6'2) are absolutely massive. Yes, we'd need to add an awful lot of size to the defense, but only the two guys we are keeping are 6'4 and 6'3 anyway.

I'm all for adding size and grit (and lots of it- starting with Marchment and hopefully Ekblad/Gavrikov this summer!), but we need talent even more than we need size. You can add size later. Now, big, skilled size guys are difficult to add, but a guy like Marchment is world's easier to get than a guy like Marner. Also, I think the odds our final cornerstone we draft is Belchetz/Roobroeck/Verhoeff (all 6'4) is pretty high. McKenna, Stenberg are also expected top 5 threats, though I imagine Grier passes on Stenberg.

@Hodge I don't particularly want to give up Eklund for him, but Cernak would be a dream addition to the roster (Tampa will take their next two runs with him), but after that maybe they're rebuilding and would move him for a playoff team 1st and a good prospect).

 

[weastern bias]

I mean if we're just dreaming here why not sign all three of them? It's not like we lack the cap space. Then trade whatever you can (including Eklund and/or the 2026 1st if necessary) to move up to 1st overall and draft Schaefer.

Chernyshov-Celebrini-Marner
X-Bennett-Smith

Schaefer-Ekblad
Dickinson-Mukhamadullin

Askarov

Do even a half decent job filling out the rest of the roster over the next couple of years and we could enter a contention window.

There's only a $27M gap between the salary floor and the salary cap, in 2 years Celebrini and Smith are going to combine for over $20M themselves as just 2 forwards and we still need to build an entire NHL caliber defense

We have a ton of capspace right now, that's not going to last for very long, we have to be careful about how we spend, just because there's plenty to spare in immediate moment doesn't mean that we're not still in danger of painting ourselves into a corner well before we've even started winning a third of our games with any consistency

While I don't disagree with your thought, what is their motivation for signing with the Sharks?

The only reason I'm entertaining the notion of Marner signing with the Sharks is his relationship with Marleau and Thornton. I definitely can believe a scenario where they entice him with the environment. A place where he can be a leader among a young talented group and bring them back into a successful franchise. I think that is a plausible scenario that could play out if Grier pursues it and makes a competitive offer.

The idea is that those contracts are such massive overpayments and both of those guys already have a cup in their back pocket so it will be really hard for them to say no

That's paying Ekblad like a Norris threat and paying Bennett like a first-line play-driver, neither of them are worth close to that amount of money, the hope is to make them an offer they don't think they can pass up, it's basically the only weapon the Sharks have to be an attractive destination for any big UFA

 

[coooldude]

There's only a $27M gap between the salary floor and the salary cap, in 2 years Celebrini and Smith are going to combine for over $20M themselves as just 2 forwards and we still need to build an entire NHL caliber defense

We have a ton of capspace right now, that's not going to last for very long, we have to be careful about how we spend, just because there's plenty to spare in immediate moment doesn't mean that we're not still in danger of painting ourselves into a corner well before we've even started winning a third of our games with any consistency


The idea is that those contracts are such massive overpayments and both of those guys already have a cup in their back pocket so it will be really hard for them to say no

That's paying Ekblad like a Norris threat and paying Bennett like a first-line play-driver, neither of them are worth close to that amount of money, the hope is to make them an offer they don't think they can pass up, it's basically the only weapon the Sharks have to be an attractive destination for any big UFA

I'm with you on those targets, but they'll have lots of suitors. I'm not a Marner 15x7 guy, and I know some GM might give him that option. I would only be okay with it at 13, say, plus we trade Eklund and sign grit like Bennett as well. None of this squares with Grier's vision nor is it easy or likely. It's most likely that he goes after Ekblad and Bennett but ends up with, like, Pacioretty-ish middle 6 grit and some Wennberg-esque D man in that they're a solid middle pairing on an average team kinda guy.

I do however think Grier will cook this off-season. Last off-season was a lot of cooking just to get us out of the sewer into the basement. He's got a lot of cooking to do to get us halfway up the basement stairs and I think he'll try.

 

[matt trick]

Maybe if the + is our 2026 1st. I guess whoever takes over on the Island could be a huge Eklund fan who thinks he has point per game+ upside but I doubt it.

Scenario: Dobson says I scored 70 points I want $10M long-term or you can take me to arbitration. If I reach July 1, I'll consider offer sheets. NYI not valuing Dobson as a $10M player makes him available. Who's offering a better package then Eklund+EDM/Dal 1st+Ott 2nd+Ferraro/Non-Musty prospect, and has the cap space/willingness to pay Dobson $10M.

Utah, Montreal, Blue Jackets, Preds, Seattle, Buffalo, Kings, and probably the Canes would likely be interested. How many of them have a better package to offer. Lindstrom/Marchenko (doubt it), Wright/Beniers/Catton (doubt it), Clarke (likely), Byram (possible, but they've got Schaefer/Romanov in this scenario).

If you've got Schaefer, I think Clarke is less interesting, but possible as a RHD. Maybe still more valuable then Eklund, but not necessarily. Not sure how keen they'd be to have three $9M dollar D-men either.

I'm sure there are other deals out there, but I do think an Eklund deal wouldn't get dismissed if Dobson wants top dollar a year from UFA in a rising cap environment.

 

[matt trick]

While I don't disagree with your thought, what is their motivation for signing with the Sharks?

The only reason I'm entertaining the notion of Marner signing with the Sharks is his relationship with Marleau and Thornton. I definitely can believe a scenario where they entice him with the environment. A place where he can be a leader among a young talented group and bring them back into a successful franchise. I think that is a plausible scenario that could play out if Grier pursues it and makes a competitive offer.

This is key for me. Even with Celebrini's gravitational pull, I think we're seldom going to have opportunities to bring in a marquee free agents. We may not this time either with Marner. However, between the desire to get out of Toronto, loads of cap space, a connection to franchise players, and the addition of Celebrini, we have more going for us for acquiring this particular UFA then we have during most of the team's history.

I will say, I was strongly pro-Karlsson addition for the same reason- no substitute for elite talent. We saw how that worked out. Unfortunately, the true elite talent was the Stuzle we lost along the way.

 

[Hodge]

At the very least Grier needs to replace Granlund, Zetterlund, Walman, Ceci and Blackwood just to get us back to square one.

I wouldn't expect much beyond that though. The best you can hope for is that instead of getting paid to take cap dumps like Walman and Ceci their replacements will be guys solid enough that we have to trade something of value for them. I keep coming back to Justin Faulk, Sean Walker and Jordan Spence as stopgap RD options via trade. Faulk and Walker have 15 team NTCs.

 

[Bizz]

lol @ moving Eklund for Dobson.

Not gonna happen.

Doing something that stupid would immediately derail the rebuild.

 

[coooldude]

I will say, I was strongly pro-Karlsson addition for the same reason- no substitute for elite talent. We saw how that worked out. Unfortunately, the true elite talent was the Stuzle we lost along the way.

The available talent has to be the right player and role. I was anti Karlsson because I didn't believe he was the leader #1D we needed to actually contend. If we are signing Marner to be our top player, and linchpin forward, I wouldn't want that either (and would only want to pay him up to 13 as an elite FW but not the team's best and heartbeat, which is obviously Celebrini). But if we're signing for him to be a complementary #3 to Celebrini and possibly Smith, and we move some of the other small forwards to try to bolster the back end, it makes more sense. Still unlikely.

 

[Jargon]

I was reading some things about Marner’s treatment by the fans, his home address being leaked, people yelling at him on the street… I mean, I’d run the hell out of there.

I can actually really see him being pretty traumatized by all of that bullshit and being drawn to come to a beautiful place where his two mentors live (where fans will be supportive and not maniacs).

That said, I’m really not sure if he’s a Grier kind of player. Maybe? Just because that kind of talent doesn’t become available often, but… I do think if he signs here, Eklund is gone pretty quickly for a defenseman.

 

[OrrNumber4]

I was reading some things about Marner’s treatment by the fans, his home address being leaked, people yelling at him on the street… I mean, I’d run the hell out of there.

I can actually really see him being pretty traumatized by all of that bullshit and being drawn to come to a beautiful place where his two mentors live (where fans will be supportive and not maniacs).

That said, I’m really not sure if he’s a Grier kind of player. Maybe? Just because that kind of talent doesn’t become available often, but… I do think if he signs here, Eklund is gone pretty quickly for a defenseman.

I think in some ways the subject is being changed. The assumption is that Marner doesn't perform in the playoffs because the pressure gets to him...but what if it is because his style of play is not conducive to the playoffs? What if it is his attitude; he won't change or adapt his game?

I always thought that was the biggest misdirection when it comes to defenders of Joe Thornton. The prevailing issue was that his style of game, his pass-first-second-third mentality, was detrimental in the playoffs; teams would adjust to him. Thornton...wouldn't adjust back.

 

[hohosaregood]

I think in some ways the subject is being changed. The assumption is that Marner doesn't perform in the playoffs because the pressure gets to him...but what if it is because his style of play is not conducive to the playoffs? What if it is his attitude; he won't change or adapt his game?

I always thought that was the biggest misdirection when it comes to defenders of Joe Thornton. The prevailing issue was that his style of game, his pass-first-second-third mentality, was detrimental in the playoffs; teams would adjust to him. Thornton...wouldn't adjust back.

Why play hard for a city you hate and a city that hates you? That bridge in Toronto burned years ago really.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Why play hard for a city you hate and a city that hates you? That bridge in Toronto burned years ago really.

...he happily took their money, no?

Besides, I don't know if the issue was him not "playing hard", but him playing "dumbly". The Panthers would never challenge his shot lane and he'd never take it, always looking to make the pass.

 

[PattyLafontaine]

Marner has 11 pts in 26 games in games 5-7 in his playoff career. In his last 20 Games 5-7 he has 0 goals and 7 assists.

For anyone who screamed choker about the Sharks Marner was way worse.

He's not alone here as Matthews has been awful as well.

 

[STL Shark]

I agree, and it's why I would be open to Marner but only if we move Eklund. We might have to move Eklund anyway eventually if we draft Misa. Like you, I don't think Grier is going to build a top 6 with 4 guys at 6'0" or under.

I of course agree with you that it would be better to throw up to $13mm at 1-2 top defenders, but they don't exist even in the potential trade market right now. Normally a Marner wouldn't even be available but for the absolute shit show that is Toronto.

My thing is why pay $13M for Marner when you can pay $7M for Eklund and then still have money to go out and sign another winger to compliment him or play down in the lineup. That's better bang for your buck than lumping it all into Marner.

Eklund won't be the all out point producer that Marner is, but he's a solid 200 ft winger and has some bite to his game that Marner doesn't and plays bigger than his listed size. If you're going with a smaller player, I'll take the Eklund style (and age difference) over putting all of my eggs in the Marner basket.

I think Eklund takes a good step forward with improvement in his own game, and also improvement in Macklin's game (while also playing with more rounded offensive RW in Toffoli/Smith that can connect plays instead of Zetterlund). With those factors, he could conceivably go from a 60 point player to a an 80 point player in the next 1-2 years. If you can get that at $7-7.5M long-term, that's better for building a full team than 100 point Marner at $13M+.

 

[coooldude]

I think Eklund takes a good step forward with improvement in his own game, and also improvement in Macklin's game (while also playing with more rounded offensive RW in Toffoli/Smith that can connect plays instead of Zetterlund). With those factors, he could conceivably go from a 60 point player to a an 80 point player in the next 1-2 years. If you can get that at $7-7.5M long-term, that's better for building a full team than 100 point Marner at $13M+.

If this is true, you have a good argument, and I see the point. I'm a bit more skeptical on Ekky. Love the guy, but not convinced he's an 80 point player and definitely not convinced he's 80% of the impact of Marner. We will likely see this summer what Grier thinks. Does he get a 3 or 4x6, a 8x7.2, a 2x6.5, no contract and negotiations continue, or traded?