Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[gaucholoco3]

It really depends on how his playoff performance affected his market. The money will be the same no matter what, but the term may scare some teams off, especially if that team expects to have a contending team in the next 2-4 years.

There will be at least 10 teams willing to sign Marner for 7 years.

 

[TheBeard]

There will be at least 10 teams willing to sign Marner for 7 years.

There were probably 20 prior to the playoffs.

 

[The McMafia]

There will be at least 10 teams willing to sign Marner for 7 years.

Probably 8 of the 10 won't go over $12 M though. No way he can argue for more cash than what Rantanen signed for.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Probably 8 of the 10 won't go over $12 M though. No way he can argue for more cash than what Rantanen signed for.

Yes he can just based on availability.

 

[spintops]

Marner is getting 90M+ IMO, book it

 

[WSS11]

Probably 8 of the 10 won't go over $12 M though. No way he can argue for more cash than what Rantanen signed for.

Rantanen wasn’t negotiating on the open market, Marner will be. I’m willing to bet that Rantanen would have got a higher AAV if had waited until July 1

 

[TheBeard]

Rantanen wasn’t negotiating on the open market, Marner will be. I’m willing to bet that Rantanen would have got a higher AAV if had waited until July 1

After what he's done thus far? 100%. He cost himself money by signing before playoffs while Marner undoubtedly cost him some for waiting.

 

[WSS11]

After what he's done thus far? 100%. He cost himself money by signing before playoffs while Marner undoubtedly cost him some for waiting.

Marner underperformed (again) but had a 100+ pt season which teams will see. I’m guessing Marner’s agent will be able to get 13 to 13.5 on the open market. He’ll easily be the marquee free agent and somebody will overpay in a bidding war come July 1. It happens every summer and the new forecasted increase in the cap won’t hurt.

 

[sampler]

After what he's done thus far? 100%. He cost himself money by signing before playoffs while Marner undoubtedly cost him some for waiting.

Yep. Any team giving marner 7x12+ is going to regret it. He's 28 and undersized. Undersized players decay faster as their speed fades and he's one injury away. His first 3-4 years are likely to be worth it, but the last 3-4 may be an albatross. A 33 or 34 year old Mitch marner is gunna suck.

I bet he signs with a team like LA. Holland is coming in and has made it clear that he wants to win. They are not that far from contending ,but just keep running into mcdavid. They have approx 23M in cap space next year and Gavrikov is their only main UFA. Spence and Clark look ready to take a larger role there, so they can let him walk and still be fine. Thus, they definitely have the space to sign marner for the 7x12 contract he likely commands.

Sucks that might be his destination, but that would be my odds on favorite to grab him.

 

[Pete Taylor]

I am honestly perfectly fine throwing 15mil x 7 years at him.

We are not going to be pressed for cap space for a very long time, that is literally equal to the money that we will have coming off the books from Couture and Vlasic at the end of next year.

His playoff performance is so over blown. A move like this will not only show the kids that we are going for it, but also show them that we are willing to pay for talent. Mitch is easily a top 15 talent in the league, and if you are worried about his speed as he ages, skating has never been his strong suit.

 

[Hodge]

I am honestly perfectly fine throwing 15mil x 7 years at him.

We are not going to be pressed for cap space for a very long time, that is literally equal to the money that we will have coming off the books from Couture and Vlasic at the end of next year.

His playoff performance is so over blown. A move like this will not only showing the kids that we are going for it, but also show them that we are willing to pay for talent. Mitch is easily a top 15 talent in the league, and if you are worried about his speed as he ages, skating has never been his strong suit.

Yup. Fans need to get over their sticker shock. The flat cap bean counting era is over. Just get good players.

 

[Sleeper Shark]

How would we feel about signing John Klingberg this summer? He's competing well these playoffs, skating for 20+ minutes/game at RD. He's 32 - so not too old to make an impact should he stick around. Likely could be signed at a decent rate compared with other RD discussed previously.

I bring it up because I haven't seen anyone else mention him yet. He was playing at an elite level in Dallas for quite a while before his injury issues. A bad agent and a couple surgeries later, and he seems to be on the upswing. Do you think he's a good candidate for career rehab a-la-Granlund? Too injury prone maybe? Hip resurfacing sounds absolutely awful.

 

[ChompChomp]

I am honestly perfectly fine throwing 15mil x 7 years at him.

We are not going to be pressed for cap space for a very long time, that is literally equal to the money that we will have coming off the books from Couture and Vlasic at the end of next year.

His playoff performance is so over blown. A move like this will not only show the kids that we are going for it, but also show them that we are willing to pay for talent. Mitch is easily a top 15 talent in the league, and if you are worried about his speed as he ages, skating has never been his strong suit.

I largely agree with this. Just look at Kadri. Top 10 pick and was a whipping boy in Toronto. His last 3 playoffs for the Leafs were lackluster.

But then he goes to the Avs and immediately did well in the playoffs and won a Cup there.

Still think Marner ends up in Boston. Or LA as someone else suggested.

 

[Hangemhigh]

I largely agree with this. Just look at Kadri. Top 10 pick and was a whipping boy in Toronto. His last 3 playoffs for the Leafs were lackluster.

But then he goes to the Avs and immediately did well in the playoffs and won a Cup there.

Still think Marner ends up in Boston. Or LA as someone else suggested.

I think Kadri was fine for the Leafs in the playoffs when he wasn't suspended. So they tried to scapegoat him.

 

[Sharkz4Fun]

I am honestly perfectly fine throwing 15mil x 7 years at him.

We are not going to be pressed for cap space for a very long time, that is literally equal to the money that we will have coming off the books from Couture and Vlasic at the end of next year.

His playoff performance is so over blown. A move like this will not only show the kids that we are going for it, but also show them that we are willing to pay for talent. Mitch is easily a top 15 talent in the league, and if you are worried about his speed as he ages, skating has never been his strong suit.

Going for what? Regular season points and division titles?

Possible top 15 talent? Maybe. Possible top 30-35 player? Not even close

 

[timorous me]

How would we feel about signing John Klingberg this summer? He's competing well these playoffs, skating for 20+ minutes/game at RD. He's 32 - so not too old to make an impact should he stick around. Likely could be signed at a decent rate compared with other RD discussed previously.

I bring it up because I haven't seen anyone else mention him yet. He was playing at an elite level in Dallas for quite a while before his injury issues. A bad agent and a couple surgeries later, and he seems to be on the upswing. Do you think he's a good candidate for career rehab a-la-Granlund? Too injury prone maybe? Hip resurfacing sounds absolutely awful.

It's an interesting idea since the options for RD are so limited (and of course other teams with more immediate playoff prospects will be wanting them, too), but it feels like a particularly tough sell for a team like the Sharks to rely on a guy who's played only 35 games (including these playoffs) in the past two seasons.

I suppose we'll see how he's doing physically after these playoffs—if he's feeling good, the Sharks would at least be in a position to offer him a good chunk of money for one year. But I'd be really worried that this could lead to Desharnais playing like 70 games for the Sharks next season, which I'd really prefer to avoid.

 

[Pete Taylor]

Going for what? Regular season points and division titles?

Possible top 15 talent? Maybe. Possible top 30-35 player? Not even close

We are so far from the playoffs, and yes I will take regular season points and division titles. We are literally a last place team, I will take literally anything.

 

[matt trick]

I am honestly perfectly fine throwing 15mil x 7 years at him.

We are not going to be pressed for cap space for a very long time, that is literally equal to the money that we will have coming off the books from Couture and Vlasic at the end of next year.

His playoff performance is so over blown. A move like this will not only show the kids that we are going for it, but also show them that we are willing to pay for talent. Mitch is easily a top 15 talent in the league, and if you are worried about his speed as he ages, skating has never been his strong suit.

I largely agree with this too. Get him out of Toronto, staple him to Eklund-Celebrini or Misa-Smith, and you're likely building a core around five first line forwards. I don't love the negotiating leverage you hand Celebrini, Smith, and Misa, nor do I love the defense core of Dickinson, Muk, and guys from the guy factory, but there is no substitute for elite players. Marner is elite both ways. He was poor against Florida, but Florida is far better built then Toronto. Give Smith Marner and a guy like Marchment and you'd have an elite first line behind Celebrini.

He's .9 p/pg in the playoffs (1.1 in regular season), and a +9. Couture's playoff p/pg .87, Pavelski, Jumbo, and Patty are lower than that. He's been PPG or above in 3 of his 4 past postseasons.

His performance in elimination games is definitely concerning, but his playoff performance overall is actually okay. He also plays the forward position we're lightest in (though I project Cherny as a RW).

We'd need to find two more legitimate d-men, but I think you can build a contender in two years by paying a 30 year old Mitch Marner $15M 13% of the cap.

The downside is I think you'd be committing to a $15M Celebrini as well (without you may get him for $10-11M), but what do Smith and Misa get? $10-12M. I think Eklund is a $7-8M guy, and you could have him locked up before Marner is signed. $60M for your top 5 forwards? $55M if you're luckily? That's the key problem, not his playoff performance.

Also, if we get Schaefer instead of Misa, I'm all in on Marner.

Our cap is clean, we can survive a $3M overpay on a 28 year old franchise wing. We could probably overpay Marner and a second guy like Ekblad, but after those two needs are filled, you've got to run a tight ship, and not waste picks as they'll be needed for cheap quality depth. Then when they're ready to get paid, you can move them for more picks (as Chicago did brilliantly at the beginning of the cap).

 

[tiburon12]

I largely agree with this too. Get him out of Toronto, staple him to Eklund-Celebrini or Misa-Smith, and you're likely building a core around five first line forwards. I don't love the negotiating leverage you hand Celebrini, Smith, and Misa, nor do I love the defense core of Dickinson, Muk, and guys from the guy factory, but there is no substitute for elite players. Marner is elite both ways. He was poor against Florida, but Florida is far better built then Toronto.

He's .9 PPG in the playoffs (1.1 in regular season), and a +9. Couture's average .87, Pavelski, Jumbo, and Patty are lower than that. He's been PPG or above in 3 of his 4 past postseasons.

His performance in elimination games is definitely concerning, but his playoff performance is actually okay. He also plays the forward position we're lightest in (though I project Cherny as a RW).

We'd need to find two more legitimate d-men, but I think you can build a contender in two years by paying a 30 year old Mitch Marner $15M 13% of the cap.

The downside is I think you'd be committing to a $15M Celebrini as well (without you may get him for $10-11M), but what do Smith and Misa get? $10-12M. I think Eklund is a $7-8M guy, and you could have him locked up before Marner is signed. $60M for your top 5 forwards? $55M if you're luckily? That's the key problem, not his playoff performance.

Also, if we get Schaefer instead of Misa, I'm all in on Marner.

I think if Smith is playing at 10-12M value we're more than happy to pay him that. That just seems really high coming off his ELC even with the cap going up

 

[STL Shark]

I largely agree with this too. Get him out of Toronto, staple him to Eklund-Celebrini or Misa-Smith, and you're likely building a core around five first line forwards. I don't love the negotiating leverage you hand Celebrini, Smith, and Misa, nor do I love the defense core of Dickinson, Muk, and guys from the guy factory, but there is no substitute for elite players. Marner is elite both ways. He was poor against Florida, but Florida is far better built then Toronto.

He's .9 PPG in the playoffs (1.1 in regular season), and a +9. Couture's average .87, Pavelski, Jumbo, and Patty are lower than that. He's been PPG or above in 3 of his 4 past postseasons.

His performance in elimination games is definitely concerning, but his playoff performance is actually okay. He also plays the forward position we're lightest in (though I project Cherny as a RW).

We'd need to find two more legitimate d-men, but I think you can build a contender in two years by paying a 30 year old Mitch Marner $15M 13% of the cap.

The downside is I think you'd be committing to a $15M Celebrini as well (without you may get him for $10-11M), but what do Smith and Misa get? $10-12M. I think Eklund is a $7-8M guy, and you could have him locked up before Marner is signed. $60M for your top 5 forwards? $55M if you're luckily? That's the key problem, not his playoff performance.

Also, if we draft Schaefer, instead of Misa, I'm all in on Marner.

That is going to be one of the smallest top 6 groups in the NHL if you do that. Misa is literally the biggest player in that group at 6'1. Maybe you can get by with that if you're like Tampa and can run a 6'7 D-Man for 25 mins a night and have the best goalie in the world to bail you out, but seems like a counterproductive strategy to how Grier has tried to build this roster (particularly because drafting Misa makes Smith a 6'0 playmaking RW - aka the archetype of Marner).

If you're spending $13M+ on a long-term deal for a player, the fit has to be perfect. To me, it is way too easy to find top 6 forwards to spend that sort of money on an outsider that's not a perfect fit. If you're reasonably willing and able to spend that sort of money, throw it at defense where the impact of that will be greater and more necessary.

 

[matt trick]

I think if Smith is playing at 10-12M value we're more than happy to pay him that. That just seems really high coming off his ELC even with the cap going up

If you give him wings like Marner and Marchment (I think he's a natural target if we have five ~6'0 top 6 forwards) playing behind Celebrini he's probably pushing 80 points in two years, maybe more. To your point, if he's putting up 80+ points, we're happy to pay him like a top 30 center. I will say, I'd absolutely not bridge him, Eklund, or Celebrini.

If Askarov shows league average in the next two years, I'd probably try and sign him to an 8 year deal undermarket (say $7M- increase on blackwood's shorter deal) asap. Having a league average goalie from fair value to under market from 25-33 seems like a wise move. Biggest risk is injury, but goalies are product of the team in front of them, and Askarov would have a good team in front of him, and more talent than most. I think he likely looks like a top 10 by the time he's 26 and playing behind a good team.

There's risk there, but I'd rather bet on Askarov on an improving team, then risk him proving himself $10-11M after a bridge (second bridge?) deal.

 

[coooldude]

That is going to be one of the smallest top 6 groups in the NHL if you do that. Misa is literally the biggest player in that group at 6'1. Maybe you can get by with that if you're like Tampa and can run a 6'7 D-Man for 25 mins a night and have the best goalie in the world to bail you out, but seems like a counterproductive strategy to how Grier has tried to build this roster (particularly because drafting Misa makes Smith a 6'0 playmaking RW - aka the archetype of Marner).

If you're spending $13M+ on a long-term deal for a player, the fit has to be perfect. To me, it is way too easy to find top 6 forwards to spend that sort of money on an outsider that's not a perfect fit. If you're reasonably willing and able to spend that sort of money, throw it at defense where the impact of that will be greater and more necessary.

I agree, and it's why I would be open to Marner but only if we move Eklund. We might have to move Eklund anyway eventually if we draft Misa. Like you, I don't think Grier is going to build a top 6 with 4 guys at 6'0" or under.

I of course agree with you that it would be better to throw up to $13mm at 1-2 top defenders, but they don't exist even in the potential trade market right now. Normally a Marner wouldn't even be available but for the absolute shit show that is Toronto.

 

[matt trick]

That is going to be one of the smallest top 6 groups in the NHL if you do that. Misa is literally the biggest player in that group at 6'1. Maybe you can get by with that if you're like Tampa and can run a 6'7 D-Man for 25 mins a night and have the best goalie in the world to bail you out, but seems like a counterproductive strategy to how Grier has tried to build this roster (particularly because drafting Misa makes Smith a 6'0 playmaking RW - aka the archetype of Marner).

If you're spending $13M+ on a long-term deal for a player, the fit has to be perfect. To me, it is way too easy to find top 6 forwards to spend that sort of money on an outsider that's not a perfect fit. If you're reasonably willing and able to spend that sort of money, throw it at defense where the impact of that will be greater and more necessary.

I hear that. I think I'd rather build around skill in my core (Marner, Misa, Smith, Celebrini), and supplement with size. It does pigeonhole you to needing a certain type of player, but if we grabbed Marner, I don't think this is a totally crazy offseason. Trade cash-strapped Dallas a pick for Marchment. The target Ceci (expressed interest in 4 year deal), Dumoulin (last legs, likely can be had), and a trade/major free agent (Ekblad, Gavrikov this year or in the future).

Eklund (5'11)-Celebrini (6'0)-Cherny (6'3)
Marchment (6'4)-Smith (6'0)-Marner (6'0)
Misa (6'1)-Wennberg (6'2)-Tofolli (6'1)
Bystedt (6'3)-Ostapchuk (6'3)-Graf (6'1)

Dumoulin (6'4)-Ceci (6'3)
Ferraro (6'0)-Muk (6'4)
Dickinson (6'3)-Liljigren (6'0)

It's still a bit small, but I think you can build around a small core- especially if Cherny becomes part of that core. Eklund, Celebrini, and Misa all have decent grit even if they average 6'0. If you get Schaefer instead of Misa, you replace Ferraro and Misa with him and Musty and you're a bit taller at forward and defense.

I will say, Dallas and Florida are huge. Carolina is pretty small. Svechnikov, Staal, and Kotkaniemi are 6'3, but Jarvis, Aho, Stankhoven (all top 6), and Blake are 6'0 or less, and Hall, Martinook, Rosolovic are 6'1 and in the top 9.

I don't want to move Smith (or Misa), but if at some point in the next three years a premier young dman (Faber, Seider, Dahlin, McAvoy) becomes available, no one will have a better trade chip then one of those two. Ideally you get said player for Eklund+, but failing that you much more easily solve you d-problem and forward height problem at once. Much easier problem to solve when you have Marner, and unlike Marner, the three young forwards won't have trade protection.

 

[matt trick]

I agree, and it's why I would be open to Marner but only if we move Eklund. We might have to move Eklund anyway eventually if we draft Misa. Like you, I don't think Grier is going to build a top 6 with 4 guys at 6'0" or under.

I of course agree with you that it would be better to throw up to $13mm at 1-2 top defenders, but they don't exist even in the potential trade market right now. Normally a Marner wouldn't even be available but for the absolute shit show that is Toronto.

I don't think you have to move Eklund, but you're prepared to move any of the non-Celebrini (non-Marner due to NMC) assets for an elite defender. Not sure if I'd move Eklund for Dobson in that scenario. I probably would, but don't love Dobson.

Edvinsson, Power, Faber, Seider, ect? Absolutely.

 

[sampler]

That is going to be one of the smallest top 6 groups in the NHL if you do that. Misa is literally the biggest player in that group at 6'1. Maybe you can get by with that if you're like Tampa and can run a 6'7 D-Man for 25 mins a night and have the best goalie in the world to bail you out, but seems like a counterproductive strategy to how Grier has tried to build this roster (particularly because drafting Misa makes Smith a 6'0 playmaking RW - aka the archetype of Marner).

If you're spending $13M+ on a long-term deal for a player, the fit has to be perfect. To me, it is way too easy to find top 6 forwards to spend that sort of money on an outsider that's not a perfect fit. If you're reasonably willing and able to spend that sort of money, throw it at defense where the impact of that will be greater and more necessary.

I also agree with this. SIZE. We. need. size. an size with skill. And a lot of it. Musty, cherny, and haltunnen are potential size. Afanasyev is size but the skill is questionable (we'll see).

Marner is skill without size. We dont need one or two guys in the top 9 with size. We need like 4 or 5. Look at the teams remaining:

dallas: rantanen 6'4, marchment 6'5, robertson 6'3, seguin 6'2, Hintz 6'3, Benn 6'3. yes, they have some smaller guys like granny or duchene, but they have size. Their D are all 6'1 -6'7 too.

Edm: Draisaitl, Kane, Mcdavid, RNH, perry, Kapanen, janmark, Hyman.... all 6'1+. D also pretty much all 6'1+

Fla: barkov, Bennett, Lundell, Luosterainen, Reinhardt, tkachuk, verhaege... all 6'1+. All their top D are 6'1+ (except for schmidt), and 4 are 6'4+.

Car: Staal, roslovic, svenchnikov, martinook, robinson, kotkaniemi... all 6'1+.... however, this is the one exception as they do have many smaller top 6 forwards (stankoven, Jarvis, Jost, Aho... all 6' or less.).

All in all, the sharks have to get bigger in the top 3 lines. Wennberg is the only shark above 6' proven to be a top 9. It's just so hard to win that way, particularly in the POs, when the games get heavier and more physical. Marner does not fit that need at all....