Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[sampler]

Thanks for sharing. We have very different definitions of low expectations!

1. Grier's done the best possible job of meeting this objective, but still it only correlates to a 25-40% chance of success (depending on how likely you think teams are to opt for Misa at #1).

2. There's a chance NYI opts to move Dobson, but there are 12+ teams who need a top pairing RHD. Do you think no one would beat that offer of a late 1st in a week draft, and various bits and bobs? CBJ may be willing to offer 14+20+good prospect for Dobson as one example. I don't love Dobson, but as a 6'4 26 year-old RHD who can comfortable put up 50+ points, he'll have tons of suitors. Obviously if someone else pulled off a similar deal, I'd be extremely disappointed if we weren't involved. However, I expect it will cost more.

3. You want 2 of the top 8 free agent forwards to take 1-2 year deals, when they'll have offers of 4+ years? I'd also say, of the 8- Tavares, Duchene, and Bennett will be retained. Come July 1, you're likely talking two of the top 5. Are you offering them $24M/2 because they're likely going to get 4x$8M. Given playoff performance, I expect Granny will be available. That said, why take 2/3rds (or less) of a total contract value at 30+. NHL players seldom do this, especially older players, and it'll be even more rare in a rising cap environment.

4. 100% agree, and expect it's very reasonable. There will be demand for goalies (CBJ, Philly, NJ), but not delivering on this would be a major failure for Grier. I wouldn't be surprised if we have to go with Grubauer or Vladar, as I expect Allen and Demko will have several suitors.

So in summary, your successful offseason relies on 25+% chance (Schaefer), and stealing the highest value dman potentially available (for under market), and grabbing two of the (expected) top five free agent forwards on uncharacteristically short (for NHL UFAs) contracts. All this while being the worst team in the league, and in very high tax location.

Man, I hope we get all that, but I think you're seriously setting yourself up for disappointment here. I don't think Grier can deliver on this. In fact, I don't think any GM in any market will deliver an offseason of this level! The closest I can recall in recent years was Trotz with Marchessault, Stamkos, and Skjei on 4+ year contracts (and they're quite a bit older than Nelson, Granny, and Dobson), and Wedgewood. They also had the benefit of no state income tax and being a consistent playoff team. It's also been an unmitigated disaster. Beyond that, I think you'd have to go back to Colorado signing Kariya and Selanne for peanuts to win a cup together.

For me, my ideal offseason is drafting Schaefer or Misa and signing Granny, Armia, Allen, and Gavrikov/Provorov/Ekblad. If, as I expect, we can't get Allen and the d-men re-sign with their teams, I'd be content with Vladar (or Demko, or being paid to take Grubauer), Perbix/Ceci, and Burns (someone needs to run the PP). If we don't draft Schaefer, I'd like to see Grier pursue Byram and Dobson aggressively, but I expect they'll be looking for a different asset class (young quality players, not futures) than those we have to offer. He's not a PMD, but I wouldn't hate a 2nd round offer sheet for Romanov. Also, I'd give up the rest of the draft class+3rd OA for Schaefer. I'd also offer our 33rd OA for Mason Marchment to play with Granny and Smith.

1. Getting schaefer is not in his control. but, if he does lose the lottery, depending on the team that wins, grier can have options for trying to get #1. the price would be steep, especially if we are #3, but its not impossible. Much like he moved up to get 11 from 14 and got Dick, he might be able to make a similar move. Either way, this is not a referendum on grier. You are I agree here on this being a priority.

2. Dobson is not the only possible target. There are other guys who might hit the market. Every year, there are players traded unexpectedly. Grier can target a top 4 RHD. the price may well be steeper than you mentioned. However, when it comes to futures, the sharks are flush. they have the Dallas 1st, their own 2nd, which is basically a late 1st, edmonton first in '26... They also have a small army of quality prospects, including some intriguing D in cagnoni, pohlkamp, thompson that other teams could value in exchange for an established D. Im not saying its a walk in the park to get any top 4D, nor that my stated price would do it, but its not impossible, and grier should be aggressive here. In addition to schaefer, the only missing piece on the D is an established top pair RHD who can be a good shark and mentor for a decade.

3. As for quality forward vets (granny, nelson...) , I didnt mean specifically them. There are many guys out there in the mid 30's. Duchene, tavares, Granlund, kane, nelson, marchand, Girioux, benn, palmieri, Hall, Dadanov, R. Smith... All those guys put up at least 40 pts. not all of them will be getting 4+ years. The sharks should be able to overpay for 1-2 year term on a few of them. There's also younger, underutilized guys like Robinson that grier can target. My expectations here are very limited. Any 1 year deals, even overpriced, for established quality vets is basically cap space for picks, since they will almost surely be dealt at the TDL, and we have a retention slot (and can take back any pending UFA garbage the other team has). I could see marchand on a 1 yr, 6m deal. kane similarly. I think having quality guys who have won cups on the roster to help the kids this year has great long term value, and guys like that are always in demand come the deadline.

I think if we are looking long term, solidifying the D for the future must be the most important goal of this summer. Gavrikov, Provorov, and Ekblad will all get 5+ years, likely 6-7. As such, I find signing any of them to be highly unlikely, though I would love it too.

I dont think a summer of ONE high profile acquisition and signing and overpaying a few older guys is such high expectations. The schaefer piece is not his choice (aside from his trading ability) but it would be very nice to get him. I wouldnt hold the lottery balls against grier, just as we should not credit him for getting celebrini.

 

[sampler]

That's a pretty reductionist view of GMMG.

If anything - on balance (since no GMs are ever perfect), I think Grier has done a pretty good job evaluating and starting to address our needs.

I'm really trying to figure out what he has done well to address our needs? He traded away all the talent/long contracts in order to hit the restart button. hes been effective and fearless in this manner. And the return was respectable. (hertl became askarov.... Meier became Musty, Ostapchuk, and Mukh... EK65 became dick+dallas 1st).

As for adding talent through trade or UFA, I have seen one thing to address our needs: Toffoli for good vet leadership. Aside from that, Im not sure I can think of examples of grier addressing needs. Any GM can tank and get Smith, Celebrini, Eklund. GM skill comes from smart signings, smart trades, and filling in holes strategically. This summer, I would love to see grier begin adding pieces (not just thru draft).

 

[matt trick]

Sampler, your second to last post makes a lot of sense to me. I don’t think our perspectives are all that far apart. Dadonov and Palmeiri (at 35+) seem like viable short term overpays. Neither is anywhere near as good as Granny or Nelson- and could decline quickly- but they’d be better than top 6 Koistin. Good enough to make Cherny earn a spot (whereas he might beat Koistin/Grundstrom/Kovy clean).

On the top 4 RHD, I also agree. The top 4 Dman for a 2nd (or two) is a remarkably common trade in the offseason. 4/5 seem to get seconds at the deadline, but in the offseason values have typically been more reasonable. I forecast that this summer will see these types of players having higher trade values due to the cap situation around the league.

To that point the only teams I see with major cap issues (or can be forecasted as such after key re-signings) are Florida, Tampa, and Dallas (convenient as they’re all high demand, no tax locations). Outside Dallas and Florida (at most they’ll retain 2 of Marchand, Bennett, and Ekblad), I don’t see significant cap casualties.

NYI will and Edmonton will be near the cap after signing Bouchard/Dobson+Romanov. Edmonton will be a target for ‘prove it contracts’. Philly, NYR, Boston, Van, Chicago, Carolina (cheap owner aside), and Colorado (if Nelson is not signed) will all be swimming in cap space, and are desirable locations. The first five should tank (maybe excepting Van due to risk of losing Hughes), but likely can’t help themselves and will look to bounce back through major additions in free agency/trade. Buff, Calgary, and CBJ, all want to take a step, and have cap space and assets to burn- and aren’t terribly desirable. Minnesota had $14M alone created thanks to Suter and Parise coming off the books. Anaheim, Utah, Montreal and Detroit also want to get/keep a wildcard spot. Plenty of cap space and assets for these teams as well.

Where guys like Ceci, Walman, and Mikeyev were dumped with assets last year, I wonder if they’ll have sufficient suitors in a rising cap to be free, or even positive value assets?

Last year, San Jose and Chicago were the lone teams you could count on take cap dumps of solid NHL players. This year, 15 teams will be interested in helping Dallas clear Marchment off the books- perhaps for a 1st (or will take Dumba along with him for a 2nd, maybe even both).

 

[weastern bias]

I'm really trying to figure out what he has done well to address our needs? He traded away all the talent/long contracts in order to hit the restart button. hes been effective and fearless in this manner. And the return was respectable. (hertl became askarov.... Meier became Musty, Ostapchuk, and Mukh... EK65 became dick+dallas 1st).

As for adding talent through trade or UFA, I have seen one thing to address our needs: Toffoli for good vet leadership. Aside from that, Im not sure I can think of examples of grier addressing needs. Any GM can tank and get Smith, Celebrini, Eklund. GM skill comes from smart signings, smart trades, and filling in holes strategically. This summer, I would love to see grier begin adding pieces (not just thru draft).

Blackwood, Askarov, Wennberg, Walman, Granlund, Ceci, Graf, Zetterlund, Mukhamadullin

Grier has been unbelievably proactive about addressing our organizational needs, they just don't align with what you view our needs to be, as your thought process about this team is too shortsighted to fix the team in a realistic way

 

[matt trick]

I'm really trying to figure out what he has done well to address our needs? He traded away all the talent/long contracts in order to hit the restart button. hes been effective and fearless in this manner. And the return was respectable. (hertl became askarov.... Meier became Musty, Ostapchuk, and Mukh... EK65 became dick+dallas 1st).

As for adding talent through trade or UFA, I have seen one thing to address our needs: Toffoli for good vet leadership. Aside from that, Im not sure I can think of examples of grier addressing needs. Any GM can tank and get Smith, Celebrini, Eklund. GM skill comes from smart signings, smart trades, and filling in holes strategically. This summer, I would love to see grier begin adding pieces (not just thru draft).

Think we have different view of needs when Grier took over, as I’d say he’s crushed it.

1. Get a clean-cap and remove veterans who would delay a tank until after the 23/24/25/26 seasons which were an ideal spot for a franchise forward (Bedard, Carlsson, Fantilli, Celebrini, McKenna, Rooebroeck, Hagens, and the Russian wingers). Burns, Karl, Meier, Hertl moved for assets. Labanc contract ended. Gifted an escape from Kane ($40M). $15M more gone before Celebrini/Smith/Asky 2nd contracts in Vlasic and Couture. Total of $55M moved/waited out by the time it needed to be gone.

2. Add talent to young core of Eklund and Ferraro. Celebrini, Smith, Askarov, Dickinson, Muk, Musty, Cherny, Bystedt, Ostapchuk, and an additional first and second in each of the next two drafts. Retained Eklund.

3. Add veteran talent to help smooth transition of young forwards, specifically at center and top 6 w: Tofolli, Granlund, Walman (provided PPQB), and Wennberg. Half (full for last year, incomplete for next year).

4. Gain franchise cornerstones- Celebrini, Smith, Askarov, Dickinson, and 1-3rd overall (probably top 5 next year).

5. Add toughness (and good vibe leaders) to protect young talent: Goodrow, Kunin, Delly, Ceci, Desharnis. Half

 

[sampler]

Sampler, your second to last post makes a lot of sense to me. I don’t think our perspectives are all that far apart. Dadonov and Palmeiri (at 35+) seem like viable short term overpays. Neither is anywhere near as good as Granny or Nelson- and could decline quickly- but they’d be better than top 6 Koistin. Good enough to make Cherny earn a spot (whereas he might beat Koistin/Grundstrom/Kovy clean).

On the top 4 RHD, I also agree. The top 4 Dman for a 2nd (or two) is a remarkably common trade in the offseason. 4/5 seem to get seconds at the deadline, but in the offseason values have typically been more reasonable. I forecast that this summer will see these types of players having higher trade values due to the cap situation around the league.

To that point the only teams I see with major cap issues (or can be forecasted as such after key re-signings) are Florida, Tampa, and Dallas (convenient as they’re all high demand, no tax locations). Outside Dallas and Florida (at most they’ll retain 2 of Marchand, Bennett, and Ekblad), I don’t see significant cap casualties.

NYI will and Edmonton will be near the cap after signing Bouchard/Dobson+Romanov. Edmonton will be a target for ‘prove it contracts’. Philly, NYR, Boston, Van, Chicago, Carolina (cheap owner aside), and Colorado (if Nelson is not signed) will all be swimming in cap space, and are desirable locations. The first five should tank (maybe excepting Van due to risk of losing Hughes), but likely can’t help themselves and will look to bounce back through major additions in free agency/trade. Buff, Calgary, and CBJ, all want to take a step, and have cap space and assets to burn- and aren’t terribly desirable. Minnesota had $14M alone created thanks to Suter and Parise coming off the books. Anaheim, Utah, Montreal and Detroit also want to get/keep a wildcard spot. Plenty of cap space and assets for these teams as well.

Where guys like Ceci, Walman, and Mikeyev were dumped with assets last year, I wonder if they’ll have sufficient suitors in a rising cap to be free, or even positive value assets?

Last year, San Jose and Chicago were the lone teams you could count on take cap dumps of solid NHL players. This year, 15 teams will be interested in helping Dallas clear Marchment off the books- perhaps for a 1st (or will take Dumba along with him for a 2nd, maybe even both).

I agree with everything. The rising cap hurts the sharks. You are spot on that last year, grier used his cap space well in getting assets for ceci and walman (not to mention assets on the way out as well). This year, the only 'cap space for picks' that grier can do is through 1 yr UFA deals that are flipped at the deadline. its gunna be next to impossible to find good value in taking bad contracts this go around.

I think getting a top 4 RHD at 25 or younger is realistic. Not easy, per se, but very realistic. As is signing those 1 yr aging vets. I like Kane and marchand for their cup winning experience. Kane is a future HOFer and marchand may be too, but either way, heart and effort to the brim. both will have market at the deadline. Both can be 1 yr deals.

All of the expectations I have are reasonable. they do not include landing a top UFA for a $100m deal. Tey do not including landing een a single top 10 UFA. they do not include any difficult GM work aside from the one big trade. It's really not very high expectations at all.

BTW, grier can also know that he has more '26 picks coming, particularly if he signs a few vets to 1 yr deals. he will be able to trade wennberg for value. Liljgren, ferraro, dyllandrea, desharnais, and grundstrom. kane and marchand (or similar types). Most of these guys have some value ranging from potential 1st rounders (kane, marchand, Ferraro, or Wennberg depending on their seasons) to 7th rounders (dyllandrea?) and everything in between. As such, grier can trade away Dallas' 1st, Edmonton's 1st, Ottawa 2nd, and even Col's '26 2nd rounder, and still end up with multiple extra '26 picks from the deadline return. In other words, Grier can trade picks this summer to add a top D and the largely reaquire them at the deadline next year.

If all that happens this summer is grier signing a bunch more Liljgren, Desharnais, Kunin, Dyllandrea, Grundstrom types, then I will be reallllly pissed. Any GM can add that kind of garbage. This is a big summer, and I'm fine is grier doesnt want to "go for it" with big $$ and term deals, but if so, he needs to still move the team forward, and packing the lineup with UFA 4th liners and #7 dmen is not productive.

 

[CHALUPA]

I'm really trying to figure out what he has done well to address our needs? He traded away all the talent/long contracts in order to hit the restart button. hes been effective and fearless in this manner. And the return was respectable. (hertl became askarov.... Meier became Musty, Ostapchuk, and Mukh... EK65 became dick+dallas 1st).

As for adding talent through trade or UFA, I have seen one thing to address our needs: Toffoli for good vet leadership. Aside from that, Im not sure I can think of examples of grier addressing needs. Any GM can tank and get Smith, Celebrini, Eklund. GM skill comes from smart signings, smart trades, and filling in holes strategically. This summer, I would love to see grier begin adding pieces (not just thru draft).

You don’t consider Grier’s trade for Askarov as addressing our needs?

 

[sampler]

You don’t consider Grier’s trade for Askarov as addressing our needs?

You're right. I should have included this deal. that was a very astute move, and the price was very reasonable. My apologies!

 

[matt trick]

Marchand’s been amongst the most underpaid top 6 forwards of the past 10 years. He’s still playing at a top level, and he hand picked Florida as his lone destination to waive his NTC for; he wants another cup. Sweeney said they had a term gap. Can’t imagine it was because Marchand wanted less than 2 years. My guess is he wanted 3 or even 4, and to earn back some of his previous underpayment. All the clues for what he’s looking for indicate the sharks aren’t it.

Kane is also a competitor. Hunch is he wants to go out on top. I believe he also has stated a specific desire to stay in the East.

Worth stating that Liljigren is our third best, and only right hand shot. I haven’t counted them up but I imagine he’s top 64 in the league, maybe top 50. This is insane, but there just aren’t that many out there. Ekblad, Perbix, Fabbro (hunch is Grier disagrees or at least did prior to playing with Werenski), Burns, and Ceci are the only UFAs that can knock him down a slot- provided I’m right in thinking Gavrikov and Provorov are left shot even though they play both sides. He’s not great, but he’s certainly not garbage.

 

[Jargon]

I think that Grier has a 3 tiered approach to getting talent:

TALENT A: the future. He is patient but willing to attack when he sees a future piece (I.e. Askarov, Graf, the draft trade up for Dickinson). Otherwise, he’s aggressively collecting picks and trying to build what he can out of the draft (so far, so good).

TALENT B: Vets that MIGHT be here for the early runs but that teach the guys how to play. Toffoli, Wennberg. I expect a couple more this summer.

TALENT C: After watching DW throw out guys who weren’t close to ready for the NHL to fill lineup holes, Grier went and got warm NHL bodies to have some semblance of a team while he builds TALENT A. Your Dellandreas, etc. This is also the tier where I think he auditions some guys to see if there’s more there — if there isn’t, well, at least they provide temporary use.

Ultimately, everything is in service of the A talent: to give them time to develope and be ready to take part in the next iteration of the Sharks.

I think it’s all been done expertly. We’ll see of course, but we’re starting to see the fruits of his labor.

 

[matt trick]

@Jargon like the explanation of auditions. Eventually a Delly, Grundstrom, Koistin, Goodrow, Kunin, or Lindbolm will pop. However, there will be a lot of misses. Allowing guys like Bystedt and Graf to properly marinate is the primary goal, but if they end up having trade value, or becoming members of the extended core, even better.

I’d say Zetterlund is representative of this type. However, I think Grier wasn’t willing to pay him like he was core. I think that was astute. I’m suspicious he felt the same about Walman. Give Walman #1 minutes and he produces 50 points, he’s now a $7M defenseman. I do think Walman would have been worth a first later and it would have been nice to have a guy to eat minutes and get the kids the puck. However if you pay him big and then bring in a Schaefer who takes that opportunity, Walman’s now worth $4-5M, and maybe not the type of guy you win playoffs games with.

I was more bummed to lose Walman than Zetts; but I could see where neither had a role next year.

 

[Jargon]

@Jargon like the explanation of auditions. Eventually a Delly, Grundstrom, Koistin, Goodrow, Kunin, or Lindbolm will pop. However, there will be a lot of misses. Allowing guys like Bystedt and Graf to properly marinate is the primary goal, but if they end up having trade value, or becoming members of the extended core, even better.

I’d say Zetterlund is representative of this type. However, I think Grier wasn’t willing to pay him like he was core. I think that was astute. I’m suspicious he felt the same about Walman. Give Walman #1 minutes and he produces 50 points, he’s now a $7M defenseman. I do think Walman would have been worth a first later and it would have been nice to have a guy to eat minutes and get the kids the puck. However if you pay him big and then bring in a Schaefer who takes that opportunity, Walman’s now worth $4-5M, and maybe not the type of guy you win playoffs games with.

I was more bummed to lose Walman than Zetts; but I could see where neither had a role next year.

Yeah, I think ultimately Grier has a very big picture view of team building. Right now it’s all about the young guys — mentorship, experience, fighting for spots, etc. — and anyone he brings in services that, and then they service getting picks for more talent.

I do think he’s going to start changing his approach this summer and actually try to build an okay team for next season.

 

[sampler]

Think we have different view of needs when Grier took over, as I’d say he’s crushed it.

1. Get a clean-cap and remove veterans who would delay a tank until after the 23/24/25/26 seasons which were an ideal spot for a franchise forward (Bedard, Carlsson, Fantilli, Celebrini, McKenna, Rooebroeck, Hagens, and the Russian wingers). Burns, Karl, Meier, Hertl moved for assets. Labanc contract ended. Gifted an escape from Kane ($40M). $15M more gone before Celebrini/Smith/Asky 2nd contracts in Vlasic and Couture. Total of $55M moved/waited out by the time it needed to be gone.

2. Add talent to young core of Eklund and Ferraro. Celebrini, Smith, Askarov, Dickinson, Muk, Musty, Cherny, Bystedt, Ostapchuk, and an additional first and second in each of the next two drafts. Retained Eklund.

3. Add veteran talent to help smooth transition of young forwards, specifically at center and top 6 w: Tofolli, Granlund, Walman (provided PPQB), and Wennberg. Half (full for last year, incomplete for next year).

4. Gain franchise cornerstones- Celebrini, Smith, Askarov, Dickinson, and 1-3rd overall (probably top 5 next year).

5. Add toughness (and good vibe leaders) to protect young talent: Goodrow, Kunin, Delly, Ceci, Desharnis. Half

1. largely agreed. He showed that he has the cahones to move out fan favorites and good talents to begin the rebuild. I will say he got super lucky that EK 65 won the norris. Norris winners are VERY rarely on the market, so he got super lucky there. had he had a season like this one, grier woulda been stuck there. Applaud the sell high, though!

2. you are correct on Askarov. Credit Grier for that move! Also correct on Dick. Credit Grier for moving up from 14 to 11! Perhaps, I am a little tough on him in disregarding or downplaying moves that could lead to a #1G and #1D. While Dick had some luck in him falling, grier had ski in the foresight to trade up pre draft. turns out a great move!

Celebrini and smith are not GM skill. They are the product of sucking and getting lucky with the lottery. I will never give a GM credit for sucking or winning a lottery. We have Bystedt, lund and havelid instead of the #11 pick, Geekie. Jury still out here, but it's not looking great. Ostapchuk is also looking pretty iffy. I have seen literally nothing that points to ostapchuk being a 3C let alone an NHLer. Jury still out, but I would love some signs of life here since grier traded the 2nd best winger in the franchise, whose just 25 year old. Musty looks like a good pick, but TBD. Cherny was an easy no brainer pick and a lucky break (much like Dick was a lucky break to fall to 11). Yes, the cupboard got a lot more stacked in the last few years through the draft from all the talent unloads, and we'll see what happens.

3. Toffoli was a great add. We've seen what he brings: 30 goals and sleepovers. What a stud! Wennberg is OK. Reasonable 3c for $5M/yr. Walman was a stroke of genious but for all the wrong reasons. Gotta credit grier for this move, even though he wouldnt have done it if not for the cap dump. If grier had acquired walman because he saw big untapped potential, then Id be all for praise. But it was a ceci-like move. Solid, but for pick reasons not talent acquisition. granny was also a cap dump from pitt to make the EK 65 deal work. Grier just got lucky that he exploded way above expectation. had he acquired him for talent, it would be wholly different. the guys he acquired for talent (with no picks coming in, and some picks going out) were dyllandrea, Grundstrom, Liljgren, and goodrow who combined for 20M in salary (10M per for 2 years), 42 pts, and a -114 in 268 gp, all in relatively limited minutes. Oh and all them were regularly used on the 28th ranked PK, so its not like they excelled there either.

4. franchise cornerstones: Celebrini and smith took zero GM skill. My cat could have drafted celebrini and smith. This year's top pick is also not GM skill. Dick and Askarov were great moves. Credit to grier there!

5. Toughness? Kunin? Delly? I dunno man. I guess ostapchuk fights some. I think the scott parker days are over. Tom Wilson is the type of toughness worth getting, as you need skill too.

The only longer term pieces added thus far that involved purposeful GM actions are Askarov, Dickinson, Mukh (jury still out here), and toffoli. Eklund was inherited. Smith and celebrini were the result of sucking as will this year's pick.

So, yes, the team is being built internally, but at some point, you need to trade for/sign established NHLers for the longer term. I don't think you can build a winner solely through sucking and drafting. This summer seems like the time to begin those moves, starting with solidifying the long term D. Right now, Dick and Mukh are the only top likely top 4 D, and neither is in any way guaranteed or proven. We need to add two more top 4D, with at least one being an actual, proven NHL top 4D. If Grier achieves this goal this summer (Dobons and Schaefer), I will change my mind. But, until he has shown he can build a team not just through the draft but through actual talent acquisition, I will remain skeptical.

I also fear that us fans are giving him a pass for icing a last place team for too long. Is it OK to be dead last a 3rd year in a row (or more) in the name of a lottery pick? Should we, as fans, be content with Kunins, Dyllandreas and goodrows as filler in order to TRY TO LOSE? I just cant abide with that mentality...

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I agree with everything. The rising cap hurts the sharks. You are spot on that last year, grier used his cap space well in getting assets for ceci and walman (not to mention assets on the way out as well). This year, the only 'cap space for picks' that grier can do is through 1 yr UFA deals that are flipped at the deadline. its gunna be next to impossible to find good value in taking bad contracts this go around.

I think getting a top 4 RHD at 25 or younger is realistic. Not easy, per se, but very realistic. As is signing those 1 yr aging vets. I like Kane and marchand for their cup winning experience. Kane is a future HOFer and marchand may be too, but either way, heart and effort to the brim. both will have market at the deadline. Both can be 1 yr deals.

All of the expectations I have are reasonable. they do not include landing a top UFA for a $100m deal. Tey do not including landing een a single top 10 UFA. they do not include any difficult GM work aside from the one big trade. It's really not very high expectations at all.

BTW, grier can also know that he has more '26 picks coming, particularly if he signs a few vets to 1 yr deals. he will be able to trade wennberg for value. Liljgren, ferraro, dyllandrea, desharnais, and grundstrom. kane and marchand (or similar types). Most of these guys have some value ranging from potential 1st rounders (kane, marchand, Ferraro, or Wennberg depending on their seasons) to 7th rounders (dyllandrea?) and everything in between. As such, grier can trade away Dallas' 1st, Edmonton's 1st, Ottawa 2nd, and even Col's '26 2nd rounder, and still end up with multiple extra '26 picks from the deadline return. In other words, Grier can trade picks this summer to add a top D and the largely reaquire them at the deadline next year.

If all that happens this summer is grier signing a bunch more Liljgren, Desharnais, Kunin, Dyllandrea, Grundstrom types, then I will be reallllly pissed. Any GM can add that kind of garbage. This is a big summer, and I'm fine is grier doesnt want to "go for it" with big $$ and term deals, but if so, he needs to still move the team forward, and packing the lineup with UFA 4th liners and #7 dmen is not productive.

I don't think getting a top four RHD at 25 or younger is realistic based on the cost of those types of players and the availability of said type of player. I also don't think signing Kane or Marchand is realistic. They have no reason to choose to play here. Grier can still improve the team without either of those things being addressed anyway.

 

[sampler]

Yeah, I think ultimately Grier has a very big picture view of team building. Right now it’s all about the young guys — mentorship, experience, fighting for spots, etc. — and anyone he brings in services that, and then they service getting picks for more talent.

I do think he’s going to start changing his approach this summer and actually try to build an okay team for next season.

I agree with grier's vision. he wants to build from within through the draft. That much has been clear.

I hope you are right about the long shots too. I understand that Grundstrom, Dyllandrea, Ostapchuk and the like are relatively low risk shots. if they work, big win. If not, not a big loss. I get that. So far, most plays have failed, but grier has not been held responsible because the expectation of last place and acceptability of last place has been there. It's a no-lose situation for grier to add those low risk players. Credit to him if they work, no blame if they don't.

I do hope that you are right about this summer though. It seems to me like the time when being dead last is acceptable should be up and the push to make the PO's shoould begin in earnest. You can make ateam respectable without sacrificing the long term vision. All respectable GM's of even the top teams attempt to have both win now and win later mentalities. those kind of mentalities lead to dynasties and making playoffs every year for a decade+. I think grier can begin that task this summer, but I think we fans should hold him to do so and stop being infinitely patient. Actually, based on attendance, I think another bottom feeder year could leave the sharks franchise reeling from disavowed fans.

 

[Saskatoon]

1. largely agreed. He showed that he has the cahones to move out fan favorites and good talents to begin the rebuild. I will say he got super lucky that EK 65 won the norris. Norris winners are VERY rarely on the market, so he got super lucky there. had he had a season like this one, grier woulda been stuck there. Applaud the sell high, though!

2. you are correct on Askarov. Credit Grier for that move! Also correct on Dick. Credit Grier for moving up from 14 to 11! Perhaps, I am a little tough on him in disregarding or downplaying moves that could lead to a #1G and #1D. While Dick had some luck in him falling, grier had ski in the foresight to trade up pre draft. turns out a great move!

Celebrini and smith are not GM skill. They are the product of sucking and getting lucky with the lottery. I will never give a GM credit for sucking or winning a lottery. We have Bystedt, lund and havelid instead of the #11 pick, Geekie. Jury still out here, but it's not looking great. Ostapchuk is also looking pretty iffy. I have seen literally nothing that points to ostapchuk being a 3C let alone an NHLer. Jury still out, but I would love some signs of life here since grier traded the 2nd best winger in the franchise, whose just 25 year old. Musty looks like a good pick, but TBD. Cherny was an easy no brainer pick and a lucky break (much like Dick was a lucky break to fall to 11). Yes, the cupboard got a lot more stacked in the last few years through the draft from all the talent unloads, and we'll see what happens.

3. Toffoli was a great add. We've seen what he brings: 30 goals and sleepovers. What a stud! Wennberg is OK. Reasonable 3c for $5M/yr. Walman was a stroke of genious but for all the wrong reasons. Gotta credit grier for this move, even though he wouldnt have done it if not for the cap dump. If grier had acquired walman because he saw big untapped potential, then Id be all for praise. But it was a ceci-like move. Solid, but for pick reasons not talent acquisition. granny was also a cap dump from pitt to make the EK 65 deal work. Grier just got lucky that he exploded way above expectation. had he acquired him for talent, it would be wholly different. the guys he acquired for talent (with no picks coming in, and some picks going out) were dyllandrea, Grundstrom, Liljgren, and goodrow who combined for 20M in salary (10M per for 2 years), 42 pts, and a -114 in 268 gp, all in relatively limited minutes. Oh and all them were regularly used on the 28th ranked PK, so its not like they excelled there either.

4. franchise cornerstones: Celebrini and smith took zero GM skill. My cat could have drafted celebrini and smith. This year's top pick is also not GM skill. Dick and Askarov were great moves. Credit to grier there!

5. Toughness? Kunin? Delly? I dunno man. I guess ostapchuk fights some. I think the scott parker days are over. Tom Wilson is the type of toughness worth getting, as you need skill too.

The only longer term pieces added thus far that involved purposeful GM actions are Askarov, Dickinson, Mukh (jury still out here), and toffoli. Eklund was inherited. Smith and celebrini were the result of sucking as will this year's pick.

So, yes, the team is being built internally, but at some point, you need to trade for/sign established NHLers for the longer term. I don't think you can build a winner solely through sucking and drafting. This summer seems like the time to begin those moves, starting with solidifying the long term D. Right now, Dick and Mukh are the only top likely top 4 D, and neither is in any way guaranteed or proven. We need to add two more top 4D, with at least one being an actual, proven NHL top 4D. If Grier achieves this goal this summer (Dobons and Schaefer), I will change my mind. But, until he has shown he can build a team not just through the draft but through actual talent acquisition, I will remain skeptical.

I also fear that us fans are giving him a pass for icing a last place team for too long. Is it OK to be dead last a 3rd year in a row (or more) in the name of a lottery pick? Should we, as fans, be content with Kunins, Dyllandreas and goodrows as filler in order to TRY TO LOSE? I just cant abide with that mentality...

If he can't dump Karlsson and Hertl we likely don't finish last and don't get Celebrini

 

[matt trick]

I don’t credit Grier with getting the Celebrini and Smith picks right so much as selling Hasso on the fact the team needed to be rebuilt, and moving out four stars (Burns, Karl, Hertl, and Meier).

Luckily (or maybe not luckily!) the rebuild coincided with a high density of potential franchise forwards in the upcoming drafts, specifically centers. 21/22 had between 0-3 (Cooley, Wright, Beniers)- I’d say zero. In 2022 it looked like 23-26 may have as many as nine Bedard, Carlsson, Fantilli, and Celebrini were known, Hagens (though he fell off) with Smith, Rooebroeck, Misa (exceptional status) projected in the Wright/Beniers mold or a bit better. Meanwhile McKenna was projected as the ‘bigger, faster, better Bedard’ and was expected to/may yet transition to center. This period also had the two best Russian wingers in the past 10(?) years.

Maybe that is luck, but while Wilson (or Hasso) pushed to compete, compete, compete, Grier’s arrival correlated with finally rebuilding, starting with selling off fan favorites. That’s why I give him credit for it. I also give him (and Quinn) credit for Karlsson. The entire system was built around Karlsson, and EK responded with a 100 point season. Grier than took Dubas behind the woodshed. Maybe that was an accident. Maybe this all was luck. But it wasn’t a guarantee to happen. I forecasted we’d have been in no man’s land for the 2023-2025 drafts. Instead we ended up with 3 top 4 picks.

 

[Herschel]

3. Toffoli was a great add. We've seen what he brings: 30 goals and sleepovers. What a stud! Wennberg is OK. Reasonable 3c for $5M/yr. Walman was a stroke of genious but for all the wrong reasons. Gotta credit grier for this move, even though he wouldnt have done it if not for the cap dump. If grier had acquired walman because he saw big untapped potential, then Id be all for praise. But it was a ceci-like move. Solid, but for pick reasons not talent acquisition. granny was also a cap dump from pitt to make the EK 65 deal work. Grier just got lucky that he exploded way above expectation. had he acquired him for talent, it would be wholly different. the guys he acquired for talent (with no picks coming in, and some picks going out) were dyllandrea, Grundstrom, Liljgren, and goodrow who combined for 20M in salary (10M per for 2 years), 42 pts, and a -114 in 268 gp, all in relatively limited minutes. Oh and all them were regularly used on the 28th ranked PK, so its not like they excelled there either.

While I agree that Granny was a necessary cap move for the Pens I am not sure you can claim with certainty that Grier got lucky.

Grier might have recognized that Granlund was mis-cast in Pittsburg and that he was likely to bounce back to a 50-60 point player, which he had regularly been prior to going to Pittsburg and after. Or that Grier realized Granlund offered another swing that with legitimate upside.

 

[sampler]

I don’t credit Grier with getting the Celebrini and Smith picks right so much as selling Hasso on the fact the team needed to be rebuilt, and moving out four stars (Burns, Karl, Hertl, and Meier).

Luckily (or maybe not luckily!) the rebuild coincided with a high density of potential franchise forwards in the upcoming drafts, specifically centers. 21/22 had between 0-3 (Cooley, Wright, Beniers)- I’d say zero. In 2022 it looked like 23-26 may have as many as nine Bedard, Carlsson, Fantilli, and Celebrini were known, Hagens (though he fell off) with Smith, Rooebroeck, Misa (exceptional status) projected in the Wright/Beniers mold or a bit better. Meanwhile McKenna was projected as the ‘bigger, faster, better Bedard’ and was expected to/may yet transition to center. This period also had the two best Russian wingers in the past 10(?) years.

Maybe that is luck, but while Wilson (or Hasso) pushed to compete, compete, compete, Grier’s arrival correlated with finally rebuilding, starting with selling off fan favorites. That’s why I give him credit for it. I also give him (and Quinn) credit for Karlsson. The entire system was built around Karlsson, and EK responded with a 100 point season. Grier than took Dubas behind the woodshed. Maybe that was an accident. Maybe this all was luck. But it wasn’t a guarantee to happen. I forecasted we’d have been in no man’s land for the 2023-2025 drafts. Instead we ended up with 3 top 4 picks.

So if I understand you correctly (and please correct me if I'm wrong), your main thesis is that it took guts to sell off the stars, and they may have had the foresight to look ahead to these drafts to get those top future stars (missed the lottery on bedard, but hit on Celebrini, this year TBD, next year too), so while you do not credit him for winning the lottery, you credit him for maximizing the probability of winning. kinda like a combo of luck and skill as a 25% of winning is better than a 7% chance, especially over multiple drafts. Sounds like you also credit him for having the guts to not try to win games now and finish like 8th to last, and instead just take the L, finish dead last a few times, and grab some top picks to accelerate a return to respectability. Also, it sounds like you credit him for sticking with that plan by trading guys like walman for more assets which ensures that we remain near the bottom while also adding even more complimentary pieces in the cherny/musty mold.

Perhaps, you also see the '26 draft as worth tanking for given the guarantee of Mckenna, Voerhoff, Lin, or Roobroek?

I respect that point of view, and there is a clear logic to it. Being in purgatory finishing 22nd in the league every year is not a good place to be. So, if you are gunna start over, do it fully, patiently acquire the future assets via trade for picks/prospects over 3-5 years of dead last, and then hit the accelerator. I suppose, a big question is when is it time to hit the accelerator?

I guess it just sucks to be dead last three+ years running, and I worry about both the fan base fully disappearing, as well as the young players tiring of losing? The infinite rebuild is a serious worry when a 'losing is OK' mindset takes over a franchise and a GM lacks skill in acquiring proper complimentary piees by UFA or trade. Everyone always looks at the sabres who from 2013-2022 picked 8, 2, 2, 8, 8, 1, 7, 8 ,1, 9 and yet still basically stink. thats 10 players who should all be stars, but the losing mentality and poor trades/UFA moves have doomed them. I just dont want the sharks to be like that.

 

[Jargon]

I agree with grier's vision. he wants to build from within through the draft. That much has been clear.

I hope you are right about the long shots too. I understand that Grundstrom, Dyllandrea, Ostapchuk and the like are relatively low risk shots. if they work, big win. If not, not a big loss. I get that. So far, most plays have failed, but grier has not been held responsible because the expectation of last place and acceptability of last place has been there. It's a no-lose situation for grier to add those low risk players. Credit to him if they work, no blame if they don't.

I do hope that you are right about this summer though. It seems to me like the time when being dead last is acceptable should be up and the push to make the PO's shoould begin in earnest. You can make ateam respectable without sacrificing the long term vision. All respectable GM's of even the top teams attempt to have both win now and win later mentalities. those kind of mentalities lead to dynasties and making playoffs every year for a decade+. I think grier can begin that task this summer, but I think we fans should hold him to do so and stop being infinitely patient. Actually, based on attendance, I think another bottom feeder year could leave the sharks franchise reeling from disavowed fans.

He said he’s going to start building up this summer but don’t expect anywhere near a playoff team. I imagine next summer/next year is our first step forward. Hopefully he manages to bring in some offense and revamp the D a bit, but we’re still waiting on most of our prospects to grow. It’ll also be Askarov’s first year in the NHL, so, it’s still a very young, very raw team.

But that’s okay, I think a step forward is great, I think the year after will be 2-3 steps forward, particularly if some guys start hitting next year.

 

[Cas]

I guess it just sucks to be dead last three+ years running, and I worry about both the fan base fully disappearing, as well as the young players tiring of losing? The infinite rebuild is a serious worry when a 'losing is OK' mindset takes over a franchise and a GM lacks skill in acquiring proper complimentary piees by UFA or trade. Everyone always looks at the sabres who from 2013-2022 picked 8, 2, 2, 8, 8, 1, 7, 8 ,1, 9 and yet still basically stink. thats 10 players who should all be stars, but the losing mentality and poor trades/UFA moves have doomed them. I just dont want the sharks to be like that.

The problem with the Sabres is not that they have a "losing mentality," its that those 10 players who should all be stars weren't actually that good (some of them are, but they flubbed a lot of picks), because their management is incompetent. It doesn't matter how good your draft position is when you spend your picks on Ristolainen and Alex Nylander and trade away actually good players like Eichel and Reinhart for pennies on the dollar.

I think we'll be fine as long as Grier doesn't spend our next two top draft picks on the next Girgensons and Ristolainen.

 

[sampler]

While I agree that Granny was a necessary cap move for the Pens I am not sure you can claim with certainty that Grier got lucky.

Grier might have recognized that Granlund was mis-cast in Pittsburg and that he was likely to bounce back to a 50-60 point player, which he had regularly been prior to going to Pittsburg and after. Or that Grier realized Granlund offered another swing that with legitimate upside.

Nah, that was a cap situation through and through. The Pens needed to unload granny, Petry, and ruuta (combined cap hit of 14M) to make EK's salary fit. They had to pay MTL to help with petry, and the sharks took hoffman, ruuta, and granny as cap dumps to prevent having to retain too much on EK. In fact Pitt was able to actually SAVE a little cap space for year 1 despite adding EK. Hoff worked out as expected. Ruuta did too. both were largely busts and neither returned even a 7th rounder back. Granny happened to outperform expectations and, like walman and EK himself, grier pounced on that outperforming to cash in for futures. Credit to grier for getting respectable value out of granny with the dallas 1st, but he did not get granny for the purpose of skill. It was a cap play all the way for pitt, just as acquiring ceci and walman were 'cap-space-for-picks' plays all the way. Now, to be clear, they were still very good plays...

 

[OrrNumber4]

Why is it a problem if he becomes a secondary player when we presumably have a primary player already in the system? Also, he is the best offensive performer on the Leafs over the last 4 playoffs and is currently leading the team in pts in the playoffs.

Because he's going to want to be paid like a superstar. No issues with Marner on an 8x8 or a 10x4, but he's going to want much more than that.

I think w/r/t 1st rd, you can't lay that on him when the whole team suffers as well. The year they went on to the 2nd round they got waxed by a far better florida team. It wasn't even close on a team-team basis, so should we knock Marner for having 3pts in 5 games?

The whole team meaning those losers like Matthews and Tavares. The mix didn't work...

This is all besides the point. If a player of Marner's caliber wants to come to SJ, do you really say no?

Depends on the price

For skaters who have played 40 games, he's 17th in playoff points per game, he is a 1st line player in the playoffs.

He's been better in the playoffs than Jumbo or Marleau ever were.

In the RS, 2016-2025, he's 10th in ppg out of roughly 900 forwards. In the playoffs, he's 17th...out of, what, 200 forwards?

A player who in the RS is borderline top 1%, and in the playoffs is borderline top 10%...that's a difference! Presumably, he's going to want to be paid at that 1% level, which is what I am objecting to...

 

[spintheblackcircle]

RS, 2016-2025, he's 10th in ppg out of roughly 900 forwards. In the playoffs, he's 17th...out of, what, 200 forwards?

A player who in the RS is borderline top 1%, and in the playoffs is borderline top 10%...that's a difference! Presumably, he's going to want to be paid at that 1% level, which is what I am objecting to...

16 playoffs teams per season, so as the 17th best, he would basically be a #1 on any of the playoff teams while you argue he's not even a top line player.

 

[matt trick]

So if I understand you correctly (and please correct me if I'm wrong), your main thesis is that it took guts to sell off the stars, and they may have had the foresight to look ahead to these drafts to get those top future stars (missed the lottery on bedard, but hit on Celebrini, this year TBD, next year too), so while you do not credit him for winning the lottery, you credit him for maximizing the probability of winning. kinda like a combo of luck and skill as a 25% of winning is better than a 7% chance, especially over multiple drafts. Sounds like you also credit him for having the guts to not try to win games now and finish like 8th to last, and instead just take the L, finish dead last a few times, and grab some top picks to accelerate a return to respectability. Also, it sounds like you credit him for sticking with that plan by trading guys like walman for more assets which ensures that we remain near the bottom while also adding even more complimentary pieces in the cherny/musty mold.

Perhaps, you also see the '26 draft as worth tanking for given the guarantee of Mckenna, Voerhoff, Lin, or Roobroek?

I respect that point of view, and there is a clear logic to it. Being in purgatory finishing 22nd in the league every year is not a good place to be. So, if you are gunna start over, do it fully, patiently acquire the future assets via trade for picks/prospects over 3-5 years of dead last, and then hit the accelerator. I suppose, a big question is when is it time to hit the accelerator?

I guess it just sucks to be dead last three+ years running, and I worry about both the fan base fully disappearing, as well as the young players tiring of losing? The infinite rebuild is a serious worry when a 'losing is OK' mindset takes over a franchise and a GM lacks skill in acquiring proper complimentary piees by UFA or trade. Everyone always looks at the sabres who from 2013-2022 picked 8, 2, 2, 8, 8, 1, 7, 8 ,1, 9 and yet still basically stink. thats 10 players who should all be stars, but the losing mentality and poor trades/UFA moves have doomed them. I just dont want the sharks to be like that.

More or less. Not necessarily guts, but it seemingly took a new voice to convince Hasso to do what most here seemed to think he should. Will signed Hertl, and may have signed Meier. No Muk, Musty, or likely Smith/Celebrini if those two are on the team. Potentially Karlsson is less keen to go as well.

I'd like to see the team take a series of steps over the next three years with the accelerator coming next year (and even then you're at the mercy of an unpredictable market).

• 2025 offseason: Add a foundational piece (top 4 pick), #4 RHD (ideally two, though not optimistic), top 6 forward (ideally this plus a top 9), and a solid backup goalie this summer. That can be through free agency or moving DAL/EDM 1st, SJ 2nd. Bring in Askarov and maybe Dickinson and/or Cherny (midseason or later).
• 2026 offseason: Add a foundational piece (top 1-7 pick in a strong draft) and a least one long term piece via trade (long term partner to Dickinson/Schaef/Muk or top 6 PWF like Tuch/Marchment). Re-sign Eklund (if not this summer) and probably Ferraro. Extend Celebrini, Smith, and Askarov. Cherny and Ostapchuk full time.
• 2027 offseason: Bring in top 1-7 pick from 2026. Compete (perhaps successfully) for playoffs. Add a bit around the edges via trade and free agency. Likely add a new platoon goalie.

Two seasons from now the team looks like this (realistically probably a bit better):

Eklund-Celebrini-Cherny
Granny-Smith-Tuch
Graf-25/26 1st-Tofolli
Bystedt-Ostapchuk-Vet

25/26 1st- Top 4 Acquisition
Dickinson-Perbix
Ferraro-Muk

Dream world, it's Schaefer and McKenna/Roobroeck, but Misa/Martone/Desnoyers/Frondell and Verhoeff/Lin or whoever is the right pick come next year is also fine.

Celebrini and Smith will have had to put up with two bad seasons (like Bedard- who remains quite optimistic on Chicago), Askarov and Dickinson one. We'll have good vets in Granny, Tofolli, Ferraro, and maybe someone like Tuch supporting Celebrini as captain. They'll take their lumps as a young team, but finally talent won't be our problem.

I don't specifically want the team to be worst in the league next year. I want them to be more competitive, and have better goaltending, and develop an upward trajectory. If they have that and end up bottom 3 with 65 points, I see that as totally okay...for one more year. I love Dupont, but you won't hear me championing one more year next year.

I don't mind the Zetterlund trade. Didn't love it, but I don't see him as a top 6 on a playoff team. I do see Ostapchuk as a quality bottom 6 defensive center. The Walman trade I actually like less because I do think having a legit PMD benefits everyone. However, I don't see him as part of the future of the team. Better to move a guy a year early than too late, particularly when you will be moving him.

I'm not certain I'd keep any of Ferraro, Liljigren, or Wenny at the deadline. I see arguments for keeping all of them, but not necessary to do so. Ferraro's age and leadership, Liljigren age and rarity of RHD, Wenny offers center depth. None are irreplacable, but may be better holding on to he devil we know, especially if it's cheaper than UFA frenzy. If we plucked a guy like Beniers (not realistic, just ideal fit) or Dobson as a long-term solution, than obviously easier to move them on.