Juxtaposer
Outro: Divina Comedia
Yeah, I do think that having an internal cap is the smart way to do things. And realistically, I doubt there's ever anything serious between SJ and Marner.
Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion
- Thread starter WTFetus
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Grinner
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Sure, they looked at what the SF Giants were doing and copied their business model. Spend money to make even more money. The Giants had a top 5 payroll and where playing and winning in front of sell out crowds. The Sharks were spending to the cap. And playing and winning in front of sellout crowds. Once the Sharks were no longer winning and selling out, Hasso closed the check book.
knu
Registered User
I don’t think Marner can be used by Celebrini’s as a contract comp. Celebrini’s contract will only be buying out 4 UFA years.
I also don’t think Celebrini will out produce Marner so it would be an issue.
I also agree Marner to SJ is unlikely but there are some people who would say no if he was willing to sign here. Which I think is a big mistake. If Marner says yes to SJ then Grier should be running to put a pen in his hand.
Grinner
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Deep? And here I thought I was just stating the obvious
Hasso doesn't mind spending money if he isn't losing money
Juxtaposer
Outro: Divina Comedia
Not a direct comparable by any means, but I still think that seeing a guy make that much money on your team changes thing. Think about the effect of the Tavares contract on Matthews, Marner, and Nylander.
It’s an assumption but nothing really substantiates it.
Grinner
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That is a good point and I do agree it could slightly increase the kids contracts.
I will also say the issue with Toronto is not how much they are paying their top 4 players, it’s that their top 4 players are all forwards. If paying 2FWs, 1D, 1G that much it would be fine. That’s why we need Schaefer.
tiburon12
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Maybe, but if there is i think it's strong. Of any 3rd party team, Marner has the most "ties" to San Jose with Patty and Jumbo. It's almost certain that over the course of the 3 seasons one of them played with Marner they mentioned the benefits of living in SJ with regard to the media, quality of life, strength of the owner, and so on.
Further, if Marner wants out of TOR, it's certainly not because they don't have a chance to win. He'll leave because he'll be fed up with the market treating him like dirt. If you follow that logic, then there is a realistic chance he could end up in SJ if he decides to leave TOR.
I heard recently that it wasn't the Tavares contract that pushed up Marner and Matthew's AAVs, it was actually because Lou gave them such low-value ELCs that they wanted to make up the money on their next deals. That was a new perspective
OrrNumber4
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No interest in Marner. Haven't the Sharks learned their lesson with playoff underperformers?
That lazy take is the same type of take of Toronto fans/media that would push him to SJ.
1. Hasso will spend to the cap if need be. He always has. he will again if Grier wants him to. Hes one of the best owners in the game. We are lucky...
2. Marner to SJ makes ZERO sense in light of all comments. First, grier made it clear that is not interested in handing out long term. Marner will almost surely get 7 years wherever he goes. Second, Grier wants size on the wing. marner is very not size. third, even with marner, the sharks are very unlikely to be a PO team, so it would likely be a few years into that contract that the team has a legit shot at it. Fourth, the obvious biggest area of need, as grier himself admitted, is defense. marner, last I checked, not a top 4D, so the money needs to go there first. lastly, marner likely enjoys winning, as all players do. SJ is a whole lot of not winning.
So yeah, I know he's buddies with jumbo and patty and while I'd love it, I'm not entertaining a real possibility.
3. Grier loves guys with size, "character" and "tools". Translation: He likes acquiring/signing/overpaying guys with size who arent good at hockey but are good guys. Ostapchuk, Giles, Goodrow, Desharnais, etc. Marner is a small guy who is good at hockey, so it doesnt fit grier's mold.
4. Grier might want to keep the tank going. This argument has been posited on this board about why he acquired such heaping trash roster filler the past several years. Seems he wants to keep assembling trash to get another lottery shot as his did throughout the year (liljgren, desharnais, gregor...). Not sure when he's gunna wanna start making it a good team, but in his exit interview, he did not seem to feel icing a good team is important. He wants to stay the course. Develop in house. add more kids. wait. That means 1-3 year deals for bottom feeders and another lottery chance, until the kids get old enough.
I have high hopes for this summer and this team, but incredibly low expectations when it comes to grier's ability or desire to acquire talent and ice a respectable team.
2. Marner to SJ makes ZERO sense in light of all comments. First, grier made it clear that is not interested in handing out long term. Marner will almost surely get 7 years wherever he goes. Second, Grier wants size on the wing. marner is very not size. third, even with marner, the sharks are very unlikely to be a PO team, so it would likely be a few years into that contract that the team has a legit shot at it. Fourth, the obvious biggest area of need, as grier himself admitted, is defense. marner, last I checked, not a top 4D, so the money needs to go there first. lastly, marner likely enjoys winning, as all players do. SJ is a whole lot of not winning.
So yeah, I know he's buddies with jumbo and patty and while I'd love it, I'm not entertaining a real possibility.
3. Grier loves guys with size, "character" and "tools". Translation: He likes acquiring/signing/overpaying guys with size who arent good at hockey but are good guys. Ostapchuk, Giles, Goodrow, Desharnais, etc. Marner is a small guy who is good at hockey, so it doesnt fit grier's mold.
4. Grier might want to keep the tank going. This argument has been posited on this board about why he acquired such heaping trash roster filler the past several years. Seems he wants to keep assembling trash to get another lottery shot as his did throughout the year (liljgren, desharnais, gregor...). Not sure when he's gunna wanna start making it a good team, but in his exit interview, he did not seem to feel icing a good team is important. He wants to stay the course. Develop in house. add more kids. wait. That means 1-3 year deals for bottom feeders and another lottery chance, until the kids get old enough.
I have high hopes for this summer and this team, but incredibly low expectations when it comes to grier's ability or desire to acquire talent and ice a respectable team.
I consider it a successful summer if:
1. we get schaefer.
2. We add an established 25 or younger, RH, top 4D (like Dobson) without losing a top kid or Eklund (maybe a package of Dallas 1st, Ottawa 2nd, Haltunnen/Lund, and Ferraro).
3. Sign a few older vet forwards who don't totally suck like granny, nelson, etc on 1-2 year deals at any cap hit.
4. Add a reasonable tandem goalie.
We will still be bad next year, but the long term D will be basically set with Schaefer, Dick, Mukh, and Dobson as the top 4 and possibly one or two of cagnoni/Pohlkamp/LSW making it as well. It's not that hard to add bottom pairing D in UFA as needed going forward.
The forwards will still be lacking after the big 3 (smith, celly, ek), but some of the kids will be ready to step up in '26, and its not that hard to sign top 9 forwards in UFA next summer as needed. The easiest position to add in free agency is the wing.
This summer plan is completely doable. the lottery win would realllly help, though Id want grier to make a run at #1 if they do lose. However, adding a top 4 RHD is very possible as is signing some older vets on short overpaid deals that you might be able to flip for picks at the deadline this year if needed.
Low expectations, but I think quite possible.
1. we get schaefer.
2. We add an established 25 or younger, RH, top 4D (like Dobson) without losing a top kid or Eklund (maybe a package of Dallas 1st, Ottawa 2nd, Haltunnen/Lund, and Ferraro).
3. Sign a few older vet forwards who don't totally suck like granny, nelson, etc on 1-2 year deals at any cap hit.
4. Add a reasonable tandem goalie.
We will still be bad next year, but the long term D will be basically set with Schaefer, Dick, Mukh, and Dobson as the top 4 and possibly one or two of cagnoni/Pohlkamp/LSW making it as well. It's not that hard to add bottom pairing D in UFA as needed going forward.
The forwards will still be lacking after the big 3 (smith, celly, ek), but some of the kids will be ready to step up in '26, and its not that hard to sign top 9 forwards in UFA next summer as needed. The easiest position to add in free agency is the wing.
This summer plan is completely doable. the lottery win would realllly help, though Id want grier to make a run at #1 if they do lose. However, adding a top 4 RHD is very possible as is signing some older vets on short overpaid deals that you might be able to flip for picks at the deadline this year if needed.
Low expectations, but I think quite possible.
tiburon12
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the playoff underperformer who has 32 points in his last 4 playoffs (29 games) and is currently 7pts in 4gms?
OrrNumber4
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A guy whose production drops by 15-20% in the postseason (goal scoring by much more than that), with terrible numbers in big games. And, this (mostly) only includes first-round opponents; we all know it gets much harder as the playoffs drag on.
I'm not saying that Marner is some awful player. It's just that when the playoffs come around, he turns into a secondary player. He's a guy who should be #4-5 in the pecking order...but is going to command a salary that puts him at #1-2.
Shark Finn
Most Recent Reverse-Swept Team
While I don't think it's even a remote possibility, but giving $17M a year for Marner would set a terrible precedent to our upcoming young RFAs. Yeah, a superstar UFA is a different animal, but still. Celebrini would point at that contract and tell Grier to back up the truck - and not hit his car, unlike the Rangers with their bus. 
OrrNumber4
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LadyStanley
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Could be a big loss for Sharks/Cuda if he gets contract terminated and heads to KHL
tiburon12
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Why is it a problem if he becomes a secondary player when we presumably have a primary player already in the system? Also, he is the best offensive performer on the Leafs over the last 4 playoffs and is currently leading the team in pts in the playoffs.
I think w/r/t 1st rd, you can't lay that on him when the whole team suffers as well. The year they went on to the 2nd round they got waxed by a far better florida team. It wasn't even close on a team-team basis, so should we knock Marner for having 3pts in 5 games?
This is all besides the point. If a player of Marner's caliber wants to come to SJ, do you really say no?
spintheblackcircle
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For skaters who have played 40 games, he's 17th in playoff points per game, he is a 1st line player in the playoffs.
He's been better in the playoffs than Jumbo or Marleau ever were.
matt trick
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Thanks for sharing. We have very different definitions of low expectations!
1. Grier's done the best possible job of meeting this objective, but still it only correlates to a 25-40% chance of success (depending on how likely you think teams are to opt for Misa at #1).
2. There's a chance NYI opts to move Dobson, but there are 12+ teams who need a top pairing RHD. Do you think no one would beat that offer of a late 1st in a week draft, and various bits and bobs? CBJ may be willing to offer 14+20+good prospect for Dobson as one example. I don't love Dobson, but as a 6'4 26 year-old RHD who can comfortable put up 50+ points, he'll have tons of suitors. Obviously if someone else pulled off a similar deal, I'd be extremely disappointed if we weren't involved. However, I expect it will cost more.
3. You want 2 of the top 8 free agent forwards to take 1-2 year deals, when they'll have offers of 4+ years? I'd also say, of the 8- Tavares, Duchene, and Bennett will be retained. Come July 1, you're likely talking two of the top 5. Are you offering them $24M/2 because they're likely going to get 4x$8M. Given playoff performance, I expect Granny will be available. That said, why take 2/3rds (or less) of a total contract value at 30+. NHL players seldom do this, especially older players, and it'll be even more rare in a rising cap environment.
4. 100% agree, and expect it's very reasonable. There will be demand for goalies (CBJ, Philly, NJ), but not delivering on this would be a major failure for Grier. I wouldn't be surprised if we have to go with Grubauer or Vladar, as I expect Allen and Demko will have several suitors.
So in summary, your successful offseason relies on 25+% chance (Schaefer), and stealing the highest value dman potentially available (for under market), and grabbing two of the (expected) top five free agent forwards on uncharacteristically short (for NHL UFAs) contracts. All this while being the worst team in the league, and in very high tax location.
Man, I hope we get all that, but I think you're seriously setting yourself up for disappointment here. I don't think Grier can deliver on this. In fact, I don't think any GM in any market will deliver an offseason of this level! The closest I can recall in recent years was Trotz with Marchessault, Stamkos, and Skjei on 4+ year contracts (and they're quite a bit older than Nelson, Granny, and Dobson), and Wedgewood. They also had the benefit of no state income tax and being a consistent playoff team. It's also been an unmitigated disaster. Beyond that, I think you'd have to go back to Colorado signing Kariya and Selanne for peanuts to win a cup together.
For me, my ideal offseason is drafting Schaefer or Misa and signing Granny, Armia, Allen, and Gavrikov/Provorov/Ekblad. If, as I expect, we can't get Allen and the d-men re-sign with their teams, I'd be content with Vladar (or Demko, or being paid to take Grubauer), Perbix/Ceci, and Burns (someone needs to run the PP). If we don't draft Schaefer, I'd like to see Grier pursue Byram and Dobson aggressively, but I expect they'll be looking for a different asset class (young quality players, not futures) than those we have to offer. He's not a PMD, but I wouldn't hate a 2nd round offer sheet for Romanov. Also, I'd give up the rest of the draft class+3rd OA for Schaefer. I'd also offer our 33rd OA for Mason Marchment to play with Granny and Smith.
Le Rosbeef
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That's a pretty reductionist view of GMMG.
If anything - on balance (since no GMs are ever perfect), I think Grier has done a pretty good job evaluating and starting to address our needs.
