Marner is on a different level than Huberdeau. I would be happy up to $15 mil and would even tolerate up to $17 mil. The Sharks have the cleanest long term cap sheet in the entire league.
Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion
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one2gamble
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WSS11
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That doesn’t mean Grier should get reckless with it when the foundational pieces of our rebuild are teenagers…especially on a winger. I wouldn’t be opposed to going after Marner but not if it means resetting the market for him.
Also, Rantanen just signed a 12M AAV deal. You could easily argue Marner is better than Mikko but he’s not 3M/yr better and certainly not 5M.
Until the CBA actually addresses the state tax issue (which might never happen) it simply is unfair to compare no tax contracts to those offered by the Sharks.
WSS11
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I understand that but even if you factor in state tax, it’s still an overpayment. I know there’s a premium on UFAs but you’re looking to pay Marner more than Draisaitl and double what NJD signed Jesper Bratt for.
Last I checked teams in no-tax states and teams in heavily taxed states have the same cap ceiling.
It depends on what you want to try and accomplish next season while we’re still rebuilding or developing. I don’t think the team needs to do much to improve on this past season when Askarov should get the net most of the year and not Georgiev. I think they should avoid the big splashes in free agency or trades honestly. If they want to move secondary draft picks this year, I would think it’s fine but I think they’re still better off with more prospects in the system.
Eklund-Celebrini-Toffoli
xxx-Smith-xxx
xxx-Wennberg-Graf
xxx-xxx-xxx
Ferraro-Mukhamadullin
xxx-Liljegren
xxx-Desharnais
Askarov-xxx
That’s the skeleton of next year’s team to a degree. If any kid we have can reasonably fill those available spots, that’s my preferred direction. We’re not a playoff contender until our young defensemen really take ownership of things no matter how long that takes.
Eklund-Celebrini-Toffoli
xxx-Smith-xxx
xxx-Wennberg-Graf
xxx-xxx-xxx
Ferraro-Mukhamadullin
xxx-Liljegren
xxx-Desharnais
Askarov-xxx
That’s the skeleton of next year’s team to a degree. If any kid we have can reasonably fill those available spots, that’s my preferred direction. We’re not a playoff contender until our young defensemen really take ownership of things no matter how long that takes.
tiburon12
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I think the only way Marner comes to SJ is if he wants to come here, not if Grier goes out fishing for him. In that sense I dont think Grier would give up that leverage and reset the market.
I could see Marleau selling him on the idea, but I'd rather not go that route. Hell, wait a year until Connor begs to leave Edmonton and break the bank on him.
matt trick
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Goodrow was a bad pickup, but we won’t need that cap space as we’re not close to cap this past or upcoming year. He can be bought for less than $1M next offseason if Vlasic, Couture, Burns’s $17M is not enough to fit our numerous major additions. Maybe his leadership on a rough team is worth it. I don’t know, but I doubt it. I think everyone is universally agreed that was a bad decision, but ultimately it doesn’t impact long term cap.
Beyond Goodrow, I think you’ve got to get over Grier’s vet bottom of the line-up additions. We’re not currently a high-demand location. High tax, bad team, minimal history, secondary (or tertiary) city. Bay Area is f***ing amazing, if you like (and experience) what it offers. NHL players aren’t headed to Tahoe/Sonoma or surfing after their game wraps at 11pm.
Kunin, Koistin, and Lindbolm cost a third, sixth and Simek. With Burns, Hertl, Vlasic, Meier, Couture, and Karl he wanted to honor vets desire to compete by adding some potential top 9 forwards. Given inherited cap problems, they were the best hopes he could afford. It was a serious longshot with a big upside- not unlike your bet the sharks would make the playoffs! He missed, but sometimes those long shots work out (see Donato, Martinook, and Noesen this year).
Delly, Grundstrom, Benning, and Burroughs cost a 4th total, and Delly, Grundstrom, and Benning were actually small upgrades. I’d rather have guys like them with high compete low skill, than floaters like Hoffman or Labanc. As importantly, none of those contracts are on the books in the post ELC years. Delly had upside, he was a first rounder proven 4th line player with good details and great in the room. Many thought he could have third line upside. Sturm cost nothing, and is a quality 4th line center. We’ve gotten two fourths back so we’re down from a 3rd to 4th for all your frustration. If Delly gets flipped four a 4th or 5th next year (as I expect), we’ll have broken even. These guys also prevented guys like Gush, Cards, Bords, and Graf being gifted spots. If they drastically outplayed them (as Graf eventually did) they earned a spot. There’s some debate here, but I think blocking prospects with borderline NHL talent is a good thing. If you can’t beat out Dellandrea or Koistin you don’t deserve a spot. I’d have liked to see Gush or Cards get another 10 games after the deadline, but not much concern we’re wasting anything there. They’ll have their opportunities this year, though competition will be steeper. If Cherny, Musty, and Bystedt pass them, that’s on them.
They may be overpaid roster filler, but I can’t imagine there were many legit third liners or above looking for a slight overpay on a 2-3 year contract with a rebuilding, worst team in the league in a high tax state. It’s better than having guys like Hoffman teaching the young stars bad habits. With Celebrini and Smith looking to be legitimate top 6 scorers, we might be more interesting to middle 6 guys (Armia types) to pump their value in high minutes situations and get bigger contracts as proven top 6 options. Top 4 dmen will be harder as they have even more options.
The worst thing Grier can do is go out and sign currently average top 6 forwards (Boeser) to big dollar, 6-7 year contracts when they will be advanced stages of decline in 3-4 years. 28-30 year old UFAs often provide neutral (at best) production/cap value in the first 3-5 years of their contract. The later years (4-8) are often regrettable, often significantly. When adding those types of players it should be either last piece or because you’re in a contention window (starting 2027) consequences be damned.
The upside of adding an Ehlers at 7x$9.5M is what 30-35 wins for the next two years, two years of contributing to a maybe bubble team, followed by three years of a $9.5M offense-first cap mistake?
On a related topic, I will say I expect Ekblad will be a regrettably signing but with zero top 4 RHD solutions, though I could see it given our dearth of free agent signings. I’d rather go with someone like Perbix, Fabbro, or even Ceci on a 3-4 year deal. Gavrikov has less tread worn off the tires than Ekblad, and he plays a game we don’t have currently or in futures, so I’d live with a 7-year deal. He’s extending in La though.
Jargon
Registered User
Too many spots for young guys, in my opinion.
I don’t think Smith with two rookies on his wings is a great idea. I think you’re kinda throwing these guys to the wolves.
I think a couple of vets would be HUGELY helpful:
Eklund - Celebrini - Toffoli
Vet - Smith - Vet (but hoping that Chernyshov or Musty win the spot)
Rookie (Bystedt?) - Wennberg - Graf
And 4th line is 3 of Goodrow, Dellandrea, Ostapchuk or Grundstrom.
I think IDEALLY, you actually fill all 3 spots with FA vets, and have Musty, Haltunnen, Chernyshov, Bystedt grow in the AHL, and when someone undoubtedly has an injury, you see which of them is ready to step up.
Defense, we NEED to be better, we need to start bringing in someone who can help get the puck to our stars.
FA - FA/trade
Ferraro - Muhk
Dickinson? - Liljegren
Desharnais, Vlasic, Thrun
Jargon
Registered User
That’s a nice sentiment but with the cap going up that’s going to change REAL quick.
Yes and can over vastly different amounts of money to players under that salary cap. So saying the Sharks shouldn’t give Marner $15 mil when Rantanen got $12 mil is missing the point. That Rantanen deal is close to $15 mil from the Sharks to provide the same take home pay.
Its not that I need to "get over" those additions as much as just that's what he has chosen (or been able) to add over the last 2 summers. Basically, he has added, in UFA or real Trade (not cap dumps that work out well like walman, granlund, or ceci), just two guys who could be classified as belonging in the NHl regularly. TWO, out of like 20.
Now, Im not saying he needs to throw 7 year deals around like candy. There is a lot in between adding steaming piles of garbage and throwing around 7 yr, $100m deals. Wennberg and Toffoli are examples of this. However, I have little faith in his ability to land any real NHLers aside from bottom feeders and borderliners. So, my point was that while it would be very nice to see grier use his cap space to add quality, I worry he will use it to overpay garbage.
I would be fine with big overpayments for short term deals on high quality players. I think that's the wise approach, particularly targeting players who might be stuck behind stronger depth charts and thus getting limited ice time, while on the sharks they can get top 9F or top 4D minutes. Eric Robinson or Perbix types. Guys whose PROD stats are solid but just dont get the ice time or PP time to look better on paper, and who might want a chance to be a bigger fish in a smaller pond like SJ. Such guys exist and if Grier does well, he can find some diamonds in the rough. Just, thus far, he has yet to uncover a single surprise diamond that I can think of, as not one of his adds (aside from walman or granlund, who were cap adds, not genuine targets) has actually worked out above expectations.
matt trick
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Have you looked at the cap space of other teams? What high quality players are taking short term overpays (call it under 3 year- fair?). Players fairly consistently target term when they can get it (seemingly outside Toronto players).
Do you have no confidence in Grier or the sharks situation preventing non-overpay, non bottom of the barrel NHLers?
If you were him what specific players and what specific contracts would you offer?
Perbix is a good example. Robinson I’m less sold on, but I agree that’s probably the right type. What would you offer and who else would you target? Do you think that gets the team out of the bottom 5?
Do you have no confidence in Grier or the sharks situation preventing non-overpay, non bottom of the barrel NHLers?
If you were him what specific players and what specific contracts would you offer?
Perbix is a good example. Robinson I’m less sold on, but I agree that’s probably the right type. What would you offer and who else would you target? Do you think that gets the team out of the bottom 5?
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Juxtaposer
Outro: Divina Comedia
There are two types of UFAs worth signing long-term.
1. Elite players in their primes. That's Marner and no one else this summer.
2. Very good players at premium positions who will still be useful as they decline because they play premium positions and have play styles suited to playing lower in the lineup as they age. Thats Ekblad, Gavrikov, etc.
I'm not all that interested in long-term UFA signings outside of those three players specifically. I feel like Grier is on the same page.
I'm don't to overpay guys on 2-3 year deals who are stop gaps until the team is good enough to be an actually somewhat attractive destination (not to say we'll ever sign premium free agents, but in the SJ hey-day guys always waived their NMCs to come here, and getting back to that would be fantastic for roster building flexibility).
1. Elite players in their primes. That's Marner and no one else this summer.
2. Very good players at premium positions who will still be useful as they decline because they play premium positions and have play styles suited to playing lower in the lineup as they age. Thats Ekblad, Gavrikov, etc.
I'm not all that interested in long-term UFA signings outside of those three players specifically. I feel like Grier is on the same page.
I'm don't to overpay guys on 2-3 year deals who are stop gaps until the team is good enough to be an actually somewhat attractive destination (not to say we'll ever sign premium free agents, but in the SJ hey-day guys always waived their NMCs to come here, and getting back to that would be fantastic for roster building flexibility).
Cas
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What possible reason could Grier have had, over the last three years, to try and acquire real, quality, standings-affecting players? We're in the wrong part of the cycle to be spending significant money to add (and until this season, didn't really have money to spend anyway - we had to shed Burns, Meier, Karlsson, and Hertl first).
I also have had concerns about Grier's pro scouting (like acquiring Kunin, Lindblom, Benning, Burroughs, etc) - but to be frank, we have either lacked the ability or the rationale to go about seriously adding quality players to keep over the last three years (and, quite frankly, only might now have reason to do so).
The draft is almost everything for us - that and turning assets into futures (like Askarov and Mukhamadullin). That's it.
WSS11
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Oh I agree completely. I don’t believe this is the same situation where DW was willing to reset the market for Tavares 7 years ago (14M AAV I believe). We were contending for a cup and he was a bonafide 1C. Grier can be a little patient here
Maybe. That skeleton can still have the pieces be moved around to have it make sense for what we're focusing on. I'm not entirely confident that Smith is ready to be a 2C yet given he never went back to the pivot after improving from his first half performance. I think you can be pretty successful moving around the parts up front and making certain additions. I'm a lot more skeptical when it comes to the blue line. A lot more players have movement clauses that would likely have them avoid being dealt to San Jose. The top end of the free agent market is pretty likely to choose a competitive team or choose a place that will let them take home more money than here. I honestly don't see any other than Dobson as available without trade restrictions but when you have arbitration rights these days, you can practically choose your next team too so he seems unlikely as well. I'd honestly be happy to just snag Fabbro and work around that. I'm hoping that one of Cagnoni, Dickinson, or Schaefer is in the 3rd pairing role next season but we'll see.
I've been a proponent of bringing in someone like Nelson and Fabbro among others but I'm not confident in them actually getting that done. If it looks like we can't bring in enough to fill the gaps with free agents or cap dumps, I'd rather give internal options the opportunity.
Grinner
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He may not control the purse strings entirely but the team has to spend at least 16-17 mil to reach the floor so he'll have to make some moves.
matt trick
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Generally agree with your comments. Regarding the elite players, given the option of signing Marner at 7x$14M, I might be hesitant. Excluding Bedard, I'm not sure Celebrini will have too many comparables to point to if we extend him July 1 2026. Petterson had 100 points, while almost everyone else over $10M has cups and serious hardware.
Previous time/cap, but I'd be surprised if JP Barry wants to push for more than $12M for Celebrini given there will be about 8 players at that level (Marner, Matthews, McDavid, Draisaitl, Rantanen, Eichel*, Kaprizov*, Connor?). Amongst the $11.25M crew you have Nylander, Pasta, Petersen, and Panarin who have all had 100+ point seasons (technically Nylander had 98). Bedard likely will be the most important benchmark.
If you sign Marner for $13-15M, I have got to think Celebrini gets at least that much. Smith, Askarov, Dickinson, and future high picks also go up accordingly. With Celebrini at $10-12M, you can much more easily create an internal cap.
Grinner
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Oh sure. Spending to the floor should still help some. Who knows, maybe Hasso will open back up the check book
Jargon
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I think Hasso will open then purse strings the minute Grier tells him “we want to start to compete.” Dude is in his 80s, has unlimited money and is a genuine fan.
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