Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Kcoyote3]

The offer sheet idea doesn't really make any sense. The Sharks are still likely to be somewhere in the bottom 8, more likely still the bottom 5 next year. Signing an offer sheet to give up their own 2026 1st and 2nd that will probably be in the opening stages of both rounds seems ludicrous for a team that will still have more holes to fill than just one splashy forward addition. I really don't see offer sheets ever going that hard on high end players because teams finally realize the value of draft picks when you're not a strong playoff team that's expecting to pick in the 20s+ and there's a big difference between using it to poach interesting mid-to-low level youngsters from cap-strapped teams like the Blues did and blowing your whole stash of draft capital on big, big names. Especially considering that the teams likely to have high value RFAs graduating from their rookie or bridge deals to a more expensive contract are probably going to be middling-to-bad teams that can afford to use up extra cap space retaining them. Teams that are hamstrung on the cap and won't be a threat to match an offer sheet are more likely farther along in their developmental cycle and less likely to have talent worthy of like $5m+ deals coming out of their rookie deals unless they hit some ungodly home run on one of their prospects.

Also that headline pun was terrible and the author/the editor who slapped the headline in when they published the article should feel ashamed of themselves.

I liked the pun!

Either way, they’re interesting ideas. I think you’d need a series of things to happen before considering giving up our first next year in an offer sheet. You’d need a big name Marner free agent to want to come here first. Then you’d need a situation where there’s another RFA who could solidify the top 6 and they’re locked into some sort of cap issue with a team. It’s a tough sell in one offseason. I think next offseason is the better time.

He’s a great guest though on the show. It’s fun to talk to someone who has been in it but isn’t currently in hockey and has their own career. They’re less protective of information.

 

[OversKy]

Why do people want Marner? That guy is a playoff loser. He's fine as a support player, but obviously he's going to want big money.

Best playoff performer out of Toronto's big trio and we're nowhere near playoffs. He'd immediately be the best player on the team barring Celebrini, while giving him and Smith someone to play with. I think the Sharks should just keep tanking myself and if the right players sign with us in FA so be it but really we need a couple more drafts before going for runs. McKenna and Dupont drafts are pretty damn exciting at this point.

 

[tiburon12]

Why do people want Marner? That guy is a playoff loser. He's fine as a support player, but obviously he's going to want big money.

That's certainly a risk, but there's also a chance he isn't a playoff loser, rather is influnced by the leaders around him. Maybe he needs better leadership in the playoffs, which he could get under Celebrini's bus-driving

 

[Cas]

Why do people want Marner? That guy is a playoff loser. He's fine as a support player, but obviously he's going to want big money.

I don't really have an opinion on the idea of Marner per se, but mostly I just don't believe in the idea of a "playoff loser." That's just applying moralistic thinking to small sample sizes of athletic competitions.

 

[STL Shark]

Cranking the Sharks into High Grier | Puckpedia

Special for PuckPedia by Steve Werier, former Florida Panthers Assistant General Manager. Image © Eric Bolte-Imagn Images

www.puckpedia.com

Gets Ryan mixed up with brother David Warshofsky but interesting take on the podcast and this write up. Being ultra aggressive on the RFA offer sheet would give up their 1st rd pick in the 2026 draft.

Reason why he's a former AGM and not a current one. Some of those ideas are idiotic.

 

[gaucholoco3]

Reason why he's a former AGM and not a current one. Some of those ideas are idiotic.

I definitely wouldn’t do a 1st round pick offer sheet for any of the players mentioned. I could see a scenario where I would move the unprotected 1st for a D.

If Marner actually would sign and also Ekblad is willing to sign then I could see dangling the 26 1st for Dobson.

A top 6 of Celebrini, Marner, Smith, Eklund, Toffoli, and prospect.
A bottom 6 of Wenberg, Graf, Giles, Ostapchuk, Dellandrea, and Goodrow.

Ferraro - Dobson
Mukamadulin - Ekblad
Dickinson - Liljegren

Askarov
Backup

That is a decent team that could easily be in the playoffs.

 

[Jargon]

I think the entire thought experiment by Steve (which is interesting and worth talking about) is that you do the offer sheet only if you think you can build a playoff caliber team through these moves. As @Kcoyote3 said, it means signing a Marner-type, etc.

The issue is that if we don’t fix our defense, it won’t really matter and I’m not sure I see as many aggressive moves for D. I guess in the spirit of aggressiveness if you can get Ekblad and then trade for Dobson and have a Ferraro - Dobson / Muhk - Ekblad top 4 with like Peterka and Marner up front… sure, let’s do it!

It’s a big risk though, and I mean, chances of us swinging that many signings of top FAs is wildly unlikely.

But again, fun thought experiment.

 

[Jargon]

I definitely wouldn’t do a 1st round pick offer sheet for any of the players mentioned. I could see a scenario where I would move the unprotected 1st for a D.

If Marner actually would sign and also Ekblad is willing to sign then I could see dangling the 26 1st for Dobson.

A top 6 of Celebrini, Marner, Smith, Eklund, Toffoli, and prospect.
A bottom 6 of Wenberg, Graf, Giles, Ostapchuk, Dellandrea, and Goodrow.

Ferraro - Dobson
Mukamadulin - Ekblad
Dickinson - Liljegren

Askarov
Backup

That is a decent team that could easily be in the playoffs.

We had the exact same idea at the exact same time.

 

[gaucholoco3]

I think the entire thought experiment by Steve (which is interesting and worth talking about) is that you do the offer sheet only if you think you can build a playoff caliber team through these moves. As @Kcoyote3 said, it means signing a Marner-type, etc.

The issue is that if we don’t fix our defense, it won’t really matter and I’m not sure I see as many aggressive moves for D. I guess in the spirit of aggressiveness if you can get Ekblad and then trade for Dobson and have a Ferraro - Dobson / Muhk - Ekblad top 4 with like Peterka and Marner up front… sure, let’s do it!

It’s a big risk though, and I mean, chances of us swinging that many signings of top FAs is wildly unlikely.

But again, fun thought experiment.

I do like his thought process that you either commit and go for building a playoff team of tank. Calgary, St Louis, Seattle, and Philadelphia are a few examples of teams that are stuck in the middle.

 

[TheBeard]

I definitely wouldn’t do a 1st round pick offer sheet for any of the players mentioned. I could see a scenario where I would move the unprotected 1st for a D.

If Marner actually would sign and also Ekblad is willing to sign then I could see dangling the 26 1st for Dobson.

A top 6 of Celebrini, Marner, Smith, Eklund, Toffoli, and prospect.
A bottom 6 of Wenberg, Graf, Giles, Ostapchuk, Dellandrea, and Goodrow.

Ferraro - Dobson
Mukamadulin - Ekblad
Dickinson - Liljegren

Askarov
Backup

That is a decent team that could easily be in the playoffs.

And just like that we're in cap hell.

 

[OrrNumber4]

That's certainly a risk, but there's also a chance he isn't a playoff loser, rather is influnced by the leaders around him. Maybe he needs better leadership in the playoffs, which he could get under Celebrini's bus-driving

Anything is possible, but that's a lot of money to bet on what could be an absolute dud.

I don't really have an opinion on the idea of Marner per se, but mostly I just don't believe in the idea of a "playoff loser." That's just applying moralistic thinking to small sample sizes of athletic competitions.

I don't mean to apply a moral standard, but surely you get the gist of what I am saying? Marner is a player who underperforms relative to expectations in the playoffs. He hasn't shown an ability to adapt to a playoff-style game.

 

[Cas]

I don't mean to apply a moral standard, but surely you get the gist of what I am saying? Marner is a player who underperforms relative to expectations in the playoffs. He hasn't shown an ability to adapt to a playoff-style game.

I know you don't mean to apply a moral standard, but my general opinion is that a lot of the discourse surrounding professional sports amounts to a morality play - players or teams that "play the right way" are rewarded with victory, and players or teams that don't win are clearly deficient in some aspect of character ("fortitude," "toughness," whatever word you want to use). This stems from early 20th century sportswriting (which was about as close to legitimate journalism as Lewis Carroll was to scientific realism), and it has infected everyone who even touches sports, to this day.

I don't see any reason to assume that Marner is just not a "playoff-style" player, especially given how team-oriented and system-oriented ice hockey is. I just frankly do not buy it.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I definitely wouldn’t do a 1st round pick offer sheet for any of the players mentioned. I could see a scenario where I would move the unprotected 1st for a D.

If Marner actually would sign and also Ekblad is willing to sign then I could see dangling the 26 1st for Dobson.

A top 6 of Celebrini, Marner, Smith, Eklund, Toffoli, and prospect.
A bottom 6 of Wenberg, Graf, Giles, Ostapchuk, Dellandrea, and Goodrow.

Ferraro - Dobson
Mukamadulin - Ekblad
Dickinson - Liljegren

Askarov
Backup

That is a decent team that could easily be in the playoffs.

I wouldn’t do a 1st round pick for literally anyone conceivably available regardless of offseason plans. We’re too far off to make that bet. Let the team earn it and use it at the deadline if we’re a solid playoff team at that point. Otherwise, we need to keep building the team with our first rounders.

 

[TheBeard]

Allocating that much cap space to a player who may or may not be a playoff player doesn't seem smart. I can understand Rantanens absurd demands as he's proven he can elevate his game when it matters. Spending 13 a year on someone who hasn't proven anything is a dangerous game.

 

[TheBeard]

I wouldn’t do a 1st round pick for literally anyone conceivably available regardless of offseason plans. We’re too far off to make that bet. Let the team earn it and use it at the deadline if we’re a solid playoff team at that point. Otherwise, we need to keep building the team with our first rounders.

I kinda agree, and I think Grier does too based on the Zetterlund trade. It doesn't seem like MG is ready to make any major splashes yet at this point of the rebuild. I expect next year's offseason to be where we make major moves. Maybe offer sheet Connor McMichael as surely Washington will be thinking of a full rebuild by this point. Hell, maybe Grier is waiting for McDavid to be ready to move on and try with a different organization. I could see him wanting to win with our team on the verge of putting together a real contender.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I kinda agree, and I think Grier does too based on the Zetterlund trade. It doesn't seem like MG is ready to make any major splashes yet at this point of the rebuild. I expect next year's offseason to be where we make major moves. Maybe offer sheet Connor McMichael as surely Washington will be thinking of a full rebuild by this point. Hell, maybe Grier is waiting for McDavid to be ready to move on and try with a different organization. I could see him wanting to win with our team on the verge of putting together a real contender.

I don’t think Zetterlund matters much towards making splashes. We moved a 1st to get Askarov and we have spare 1st round picks the next two years. We can use those to make splashes towards a more competitive team. It’s just that ours are a much higher value pick to move where it’s difficult for it to make sense.

 

[coooldude]

I know you don't mean to apply a moral standard, but my general opinion is that a lot of the discourse surrounding professional sports amounts to a morality play - players or teams that "play the right way" are rewarded with victory, and players or teams that don't win are clearly deficient in some aspect of character ("fortitude," "toughness," whatever word you want to use). This stems from early 20th century sportswriting (which was about as close to legitimate journalism as Lewis Carroll was to scientific realism), and it has infected everyone who even touches sports, to this day.

I don't see any reason to assume that Marner is just not a "playoff-style" player, especially given how team-oriented and system-oriented ice hockey is. I just frankly do not buy it.

RE: the playoff performance debate, I thought this article by Dom Luczyzyzyzyzyzyzyzyzyzyzyzyzyzyn last May was very good. tl;dr Marner and Matthews have massive dropoffs in offense in the playoffs not because they suck or are weak or aren't tough, but because they focus too much on "playing playoff hockey" and being defensively sound.

The Maple Leafs changed the way they play in the playoffs and lost because of it

The Maple Leafs went out of their way to play The Right Way in the playoffs. But it's the wrong way for this team and how it's built.

www.nytimes.com

 

[TheBeard]

I don’t think Zetterlund matters much towards making splashes. We moved a 1st to get Askarov and we have spare 1st round picks the next two years. We can use those to make splashes towards a more competitive team. It’s just that ours are a much higher value pick to move where it’s difficult for it to make sense.

Zetterlund specifically? No. But to me it signifies that Grier is still in evaluation mode regarding what he has in the system and isn’t in any rush to make any major commitments at this time. I can’t see that changing this summer either although perhaps it does pending on how the draft lotto plays out.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Zetterlund specifically? No. But to me it signifies that Grier is still in evaluation mode regarding what he has in the system and isn’t in any rush to make any major commitments at this time. I can’t see that changing this summer either although perhaps it does pending on how the draft lotto plays out.

It makes sense to be patient given the team has lots of spots to fill and lots of development still needed with what they have. They can make significant improvements without moving their 1st.

 

[Hodge]

There are maybe 20 true difference makers in the entire league and Marner is one of them. If you have a chance to add a player like that at 28 years old without surrendering any assets you do it every time.

 

[SjMilhouse]

Still don't understand the rush. We are like 2, more like 3 years behind Utah and they just rebuilt their entire defense in 2 off-seasons with the additions of Sergachev, Marino, and Durzi plus the addition of Maata mid year and still have some young guys coming up.

The way to crush a rebuild is to shoot your shot too soon and try to rush contention. I'd prefer to wait until next off season to really start investing but that's just me. I've waited 30+ years for a cup, I can wait a few more if it means better odds of getting there

Free agents, sure let's do it. But giving up potentially top 5 picks seems sketchy at this point

 

[TheBeard]

It makes sense to be patient given the team has lots of spots to fill and lots of development still needed with what they have. They can make significant improvements without moving their 1st.

I agree which is why I don’t expect any major splashes like Marner or Dobson this offseason. I think he’s anticipating Dickinson or Musty or Schafer/Misa being the exciting newcomers to appease the fanbase.

 

[TheBeard]

There are maybe 20 true difference makers in the entire league and Marner is one of them. If you have a chance to add a player like that at 28 years old without surrendering any assets you do it every time.

What difference exactly has Marner made to the leafs?

 

[hohosaregood]

I liked the pun!

Either way, they’re interesting ideas. I think you’d need a series of things to happen before considering giving up our first next year in an offer sheet. You’d need a big name Marner free agent to want to come here first. Then you’d need a situation where there’s another RFA who could solidify the top 6 and they’re locked into some sort of cap issue with a team. It’s a tough sell in one offseason. I think next offseason is the better time.

He’s a great guest though on the show. It’s fun to talk to someone who has been in it but isn’t currently in hockey and has their own career. They’re less protective of information.

If we were to get Marner + Schaefer, I could see the appeal of RFA hunting. But just too unlikely to happen.

 

[Hodge]

What difference exactly has Marner made to the leafs?

He and Matthews are far and away the biggest reasons they went from a laughing stock to a perennial playoff team.