Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Pinkfloyd]

We got lucky with Blackwood and were essentially gifted Askarov. If we walk out of this whole rebuild with not only neither but a complete black hole again in nets then we'll still be struggling to climb out of the basement. The potential and stability of what Asky brings is invaluable, unless you wanna just watch the team continue to bring in the Georgies, Vanaceks and Khakkonens all the time.


I'd give up Smith straight up for Dahlin before Askarov. If Askarov was the ask, I'd want at least Levi coming back (as part of the trade).

Asky behind a defense that has no real #1 or top pairing capable players on it is not going to see much potential or stability because he's going to get worn out and/or injured consistently getting shelled. I would do everything I could to keep Askarov out of the trade but if his inclusion is what it takes to get a deal done, I'll go looking for another goalie with my proven #1D for the next seven years. Getting someone to replace Askarov is simply easier than getting anyone at Dahlin's level on defense. There's just no way around that.

 

[TheBeard]

Asky behind a defense that has no real #1 or top pairing capable players on it is not going to see much potential or stability because he's going to get worn out and/or injured consistently getting shelled. I would do everything I could to keep Askarov out of the trade but if his inclusion is what it takes to get a deal done, I'll go looking for another goalie with my proven #1D for the next seven years. Getting someone to replace Askarov is simply easier than getting anyone at Dahlin's level on defense. There's just no way around that.

There's a big gap between getting Dahlin and flat out not addressing the defense. I'd rather go asky and find other guys not making 11 million to anchor the D.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

There's a big gap between getting Dahlin and flat out not addressing the defense. I'd rather go asky and find other guys not making 11 million to anchor the D.

There is a big gap between those two things but Dahlin is a legitimate answer to one of the main pillars that does need addressing. The odds are not in the Sharks' favor to actually address the defense this offseason but we're going to put Askarov behind it regardless. I sincerely doubt any possible answers you'd come up with would be sufficient compared to Dahlin.

 

[TheBeard]

There is a big gap between those two things but Dahlin is a legitimate answer to one of the main pillars that does need addressing. The odds are not in the Sharks' favor to actually address the defense this offseason but we're going to put Askarov behind it regardless. I sincerely doubt any possible answers you'd come up with would be sufficient compared to Dahlin.

I mean obviously Dahlin would be a massive improvement, however the way i see it is the gap between Askarov and whatever else we can pull off the trash heap is much larger than Dahlin and building a competent D-corp especially if we get Schaf. If Dahlin is that good as hiding the goaltending woes, how have they only once finished better than 25th in the league in goals against with him being a regular?

 

[coooldude]

I mean obviously Dahlin would be a massive improvement, however the way i see it is the gap between Askarov and whatever else we can pull off the trash heap is much larger than Dahlin and building a competent D-corp especially if we get Schaf. If Dahlin is that good as hiding the goaltending woes, how have they only once finished better than 25th in the league in goals against with him being a regular?

I think that's where we'd disagree. While a top 3 goalie is a huge improvement, it's no longer the building block it once was, and replacement-to-average level goalkeeping is available out there. For every Vaselivsky there's a Hill or Bob or Kuemper (or whoever won it with the Avs). However Dahlin is not just "a good player", he's the rare #1 that you literally cannot even guarantee you can draft in the top 3, and he has already proven he is and he's already under contract through his core. In the same manner that Pinkfloyd said Schaefer would be Dahlin at his peak, Schaefer and Askarov are equivalent in that way (unrealized potential) while Dahlin is fully realized, no questions #1 except future injury risk.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Swedes always get confused with practically/literally. Like Slovakians and immaculate/impeccable, Hungarians with accept/except, French with discreet/discrete, or Americans with English/English.

On a serious note, if Buffalo wants Askarov as the foundation for Dahlin, you do that without asking questions. Think about it...the Sharks acquired a #1 goaltender for a 5th-round pick, and Colorado traded for him with a 2nd-rounder and a solid young player. There's no way you could ever get a #1 defenseman that cheaply.

 

[hohosaregood]

If all it took was Smith or Askarov to get Dahlin and you'd say no to that then so be it but that seems pretty silly to me.

What's the limit? Dahlin is a legitimate #1 superstar dman under contract. So the price should be huge. Would you do unprotected/top 3 protected 2026 1st+Askarov+Smith? Would that even be enough?

 

[TheBeard]

I think that's where we'd disagree. While a top 3 goalie is a huge improvement, it's no longer the building block it once was, and replacement-to-average level goalkeeping is available out there. For every Vaselivsky there's a Hill or Bob or Kuemper (or whoever won it with the Avs). However Dahlin is not just "a good player", he's the rare #1 that you literally cannot even guarantee you can draft in the top 3, and he has already proven he is and he's already under contract through his core. In the same manner that Pinkfloyd said Schaefer would be Dahlin at his peak, Schaefer and Askarov are equivalent in that way (unrealized potential) while Dahlin is fully realized, no questions #1 except future injury risk.

The problem when you look at Hill or Kuemper (Bob was plauying absolute elite hockey and has proven he can be an elite goaltender in the past) is that both Vegas had completely stacked teams that just don't happen often. Vegas has one of if not one of the deepest D cores when they won as. well as perhaps one of the deepest forward groups in a long time. Colorado also had an incredibly deep D-core and won with a 3 future hall-of-famers. There are always going to be exceptions like that, but if you look in the past, outside of St Louis you either need a stacked team or an elite goaltender. Dahlin, while nice, isn't going to suddenly make our defense elite. Lacking forwards isn't going to suddenly make us a deep contender and when we finally have that he'll be in his late 20s and we still don't know if we'll have anything close to competent goaltending. I don't want to be Edmonton or Toronto, constantly let down by lack of stability in the crease.

An elite goaltender (if asky can become that), is the equivalent of a franchise QB in football. You can win with that almost singlehandedly, but if you don't have that you better have a historically good team around him (like Baltimore did with their Defense and Trent Dilfer as QB or TB with Brad Johnson).

 

[coooldude]

The problem when you look at Hill or Kuemper (Bob was plauying absolute elite hockey and has proven he can be an elite goaltender in the past) is that both Vegas had completely stacked teams that just don't happen often. Vegas has one of if not one of the deepest D cores when they won as. well as perhaps one of the deepest forward groups in a long time. Colorado also had an incredibly deep D-core and won with a 3 future hall-of-famers. There are always going to be exceptions like that, but if you look in the past, outside of St Louis you either need a stacked team or an elite goaltender. Dahlin, while nice, isn't going to suddenly make our defense elite. Lacking forwards isn't going to suddenly make us a deep contender and when we finally have that he'll be in his late 20s and we still don't know if we'll have anything close to competent goaltending. I don't want to be Edmonton or Toronto, constantly let down by lack of stability in the crease.

An elite goaltender (if asky can become that), is the equivalent of a franchise QB in football. You can win with that almost singlehandedly, but if you don't have that you better have a historically good team around him (like Baltimore did with their Defense and Trent Dilfer as QB or TB with Brad Johnson).

I really disagree with "Dahlin, while nice"... there are only 6-7 D in the league who can claim to have Dahlin levels of impact on each game. IF! If Askarov becomes a top 5 goalie who doesn't have massive ups and downs, then he can claim to be that impactful. He hasn't proven that yet.

The franchise QB of the hockey team is either a true #1D like Dahlin or a true #1C like Celebrini. But there's no single player on the ice that makes nearly as much impact as a franchise QB, so it's a bad analogy. Franchise QB is the single most impactful position in team sports, nothing else comes close.

Goalies of dynasties or cup winners in the cap era:
PIT - had good goaltending with flower, albeit very inconsistent
CHI - never had great goaltending (so, same as COL, VGK -- starting to look like an archetype, not one-offs).
STL - while Binnington played well, it was the depth and size of the lineup that beat teams down to win their cup (similar to VGK but less flash - some same players tho!)

and on the other side of the ledger - good Bob, Vaselevskiy, good Quick, one-off from ANA with great goalkeeping.

So, not at all clear to me that Bob, Vaselivskiy, and Quick are requirements while you have just as many counterexample dynasties without a clear franchise goalie, plus on the other side, the franchise goalies who haven't even sniffed it, like Shesterkin, Hellebuyck, and many before them. Meanwhile pretty much every cup winning team has a D man who is playing like a #1 (Blues/VGK had Pietrangelo and the others are self evident).

 

[Jargon]

I would give up everyone not named Smith, Celebrini or Askarov, frankly.

I think it starts with our 1st next year (maybe top 3 protected) + Eklund + Chernyshov and/or Dickinson. I imagine the Dallas or Oilers 1st as well.

This would be a Joe Thornton-level trade and highly unlikely. Does Grier have any connection to Buffalo or their GM?

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I mean obviously Dahlin would be a massive improvement, however the way i see it is the gap between Askarov and whatever else we can pull off the trash heap is much larger than Dahlin and building a competent D-corp especially if we get Schaf. If Dahlin is that good as hiding the goaltending woes, how have they only once finished better than 25th in the league in goals against with him being a regular?

I don't know what you see that supports that view but I disagree with it as it stands right now. Dahlin isn't the reason the team as a whole can't defend as a team. That likely is attributable to the fact that they don't have real top six centers to help and that the guys behind Dahlin aren't exactly stellar defensive players either. Power has been average maybe and Byram isn't known for his defensive prowess either. There's a lot of reasons Buffalo has been bad but the biggest reason is because they gave up on Eichel and never actually replaced him as a 1C.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

What's the limit? Dahlin is a legitimate #1 superstar dman under contract. So the price should be huge. Would you do unprotected/top 3 protected 2026 1st+Askarov+Smith? Would that even be enough?

I'm not sure what the limit is. Dahlin as a #1 that wants out with an impending NMC is hard to gauge value. I would probably only be willing to part with one of those assets in this situation and add other pieces to cover the gap but not all three for the leverage that the Sabres would have if Dahlin wants out. They would give in eventually though they should get more than what they did for Eichel since there isn't a health concern this time around.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Dahlin is literally the only thing worthwhile about that whole Buffalo roster. If he did want out, which it sounds like he doesn't, then you move heaven and earth to acquire him. It would be a franchise defining trade a la Joe Thornton.

 

[Grinner]

Seems to me,, that if he'll force his way out of Buffalo, then he'll decide where he'll want to play next. That should lower his return

 

[hohosaregood]

Dahlin is literally the only thing worthwhile about that whole Buffalo roster. If he did want out, which it sounds like he doesn't, then you move heaven and earth to acquire him. It would be a franchise defining trade a la Joe Thornton.

So let's say we use the Eichel trade as a baseline (who had like half or third the value considering the neck issue and flat cap) which was Tuch+Krebs+late 1st+late 2nd we're looking at at least a Eklund+Musty+Dal 2025 1st+OTT 2025 2nd. But Dahlin is set to be a top 5 dman in the league with 7 years on his contract in a rising cap. So what else would we add here? Are we talking about 3 of the 2026 1st, Smith, Dickinson, Askarov with maybe Levi coming back to even it out?

He's a worthwhile target for sure but how much of our future do we need to gut to do this. And are we ready to use whatever's left to start building a contender immediately.

 

[Sendhelplease]

Only Celebrini would be off limits in a Dahlin trade...

 

[Juxtaposer]

So let's say we use the Eichel trade as a baseline (who had like half or third the value considering the neck issue and flat cap) which was Tuch+Krebs+late 1st+late 2nd we're looking at at least a Eklund+Musty+Dal 2025 1st+OTT 2025 2nd. But Dahlin is set to be a top 5 dman in the league with 7 years on his contract in a rising cap. So what else would we add here? Are we talking about 3 of the 2026 1st, Smith, Dickinson, Askarov with maybe Levi coming back to even it out?

He's a worthwhile target for sure but how much of our future do we need to gut to do this. And are we ready to use whatever's left to start building a contender immediately.

I would comfortably do Eklund+Dickinson+Musty+Dallas 1st+Edmonton 1st if they'd go for that. If they insisted on Smith or Askarov being the centerpiece instead of Eklund, I wouldn't close the door on it. Realistically, it's hard to say where I'd draw the line without any knowledge of how Buffalo values those pieces. I would give up one of Eklund/Smith/Askarov and one of 2025 1st/2026 1st as the centerpieces and fill the rest in with prospects/later 1sts/roster players. Obviously Celebrini is the only untouchable, and I would do everything possible to not give up Smith.

 

[Grinner]

So let's say we use the Eichel trade as a baseline (who had like half or third the value considering the neck issue and flat cap) which was Tuch+Krebs+late 1st+late 2nd we're looking at at least a Eklund+Musty+Dal 2025 1st+OTT 2025 2nd. But Dahlin is set to be a top 5 dman in the league with 7 years on his contract in a rising cap. So what else would we add here? Are we talking about 3 of the 2026 1st, Smith, Dickinson, Askarov with maybe Levi coming back to even it out?

He's a worthwhile target for sure but how much of our future do we need to gut to do this. And are we ready to use whatever's left to start building a contender immediately.

It's not like Buffalo is hurting for wingers

 

[TheBeard]

This team has five players under the age of 25 who have proven to be able to play in the NHL, and two of those - Graf and Askarov have played a combined, what, 20 games?

I really don’t think we’re in a position to just throw away a bunch of picks and prospects for one guy. It’s imperative to know if any of our prospects can be NHLers instead of just really good playing against scrubs.

 

[mogambomoroo]

Dahlin would be the catch of the century, if MG can make that trade now. The another thing is though, that there is a risk that he does the same with the Sharks if it doesn't work out...

 

[Patty Ice]

Dahlin refutes report he wants to move on from Sabres | NHL.com

Captain 'never said I want out of here,' is in 1st of 8-year contract with Buffalo

www.nhl.com

“I have never said I want out of here,” Dahlin said. “I’m not happy (with) where we’re at. I don’t want to lose. We have to get better. I’ve never said I want out of here. I thought that was pretty clear.

“That bugs me, actually. I get [ticked] off by that. I haven’t even mentioned the word 'leave.' That’s just how it is.”

 

[Juxtaposer]

Dahlin would be the catch of the century, if MG can make that trade now. The another thing is though, that there is a risk that he does the same with the Sharks if it doesn't work out...

We have one thing that the Sabres unequivocally don't: an 18 year old franchise center who is actually a center and actually good defensively.

If you look at the Sabres roster vs. ours, it's obvious that they have infinitely more talent. At least three defensemen stratospheres ahead of the Sharks' best D, tons of highly-drafted forward talent, and respectable goaltending. They shouldn't even be close to use in the standings. But the problem in Buffalo is that they have zero real top-6 centers. Thompson is a winger, Kulich is a winger, Cozens was a winger, Mittlestadt might be a winger, Norris might be a winger. And none of those guys give a crap about defense in the slightest except Kulich, who is 20. The biggest issue with the Sabres is that the forward group is just a bunch of one-way wingers. Good teams are built from a strong center spine. Grier knows it. Somehow, it doesn't seem like Adams knows it, and that's the problem.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

So let's say we use the Eichel trade as a baseline (who had like half or third the value considering the neck issue and flat cap) which was Tuch+Krebs+late 1st+late 2nd we're looking at at least a Eklund+Musty+Dal 2025 1st+OTT 2025 2nd. But Dahlin is set to be a top 5 dman in the league with 7 years on his contract in a rising cap. So what else would we add here? Are we talking about 3 of the 2026 1st, Smith, Dickinson, Askarov with maybe Levi coming back to even it out?

He's a worthwhile target for sure but how much of our future do we need to gut to do this. And are we ready to use whatever's left to start building a contender immediately.

If I'm Buffalo and I'm forced to trade Dahlin, they're signaling another rebuild whether anyone involved wants it or not. The issue is that putting any rebuild value into a goalie like Askarov at the outset is probably not helpful. I don't think they'd care too much for Dickinson either since they felt it was better for them to pass on him for Helenius and a 2nd. We would probably be asked to build a deal around Will Smith to have a winning offer. I don't think we'd need a few of those Eichel pieces to get it done if we did but I'd be fine with any of them to get it done. All of those Eichel pieces are replaceable compared to Dahlin.

 

[Grinner]

If I'm Buffalo and I'm forced to trade Dahlin, they're signaling another rebuild whether anyone involved wants it or not. The issue is that putting any rebuild value into a goalie like Askarov at the outset is probably not helpful. I don't think they'd care too much for Dickinson either since they felt it was better for them to pass on him for Helenius and a 2nd. We would probably be asked to build a deal around Will Smith to have a winning offer. I don't think we'd need a few of those Eichel pieces to get it done if we did but I'd be fine with any of them to get it done. All of those Eichel pieces are replaceable compared to Dahlin.

If you trade Smith for a defender, does that make Misa our #1 target?

 

[sampler]

I don't think a Dahlin trade is a good idea at this point. Do you think Dahlin would catapult the sharks into PO contention next year? I sure dont...

Now, a year from now is a different animal. If the sharks kids start proving themselves and Buffalo has another middling year, then Dahlin could be a great target for TDL or summer '26. He'll be about to turn 26, and still signed 6 more years. his value will be a touch lower, but the sharks' values could be way higher. If eklund puts together a 70-80 pt season next year (very very possible) his value rises. If BDE, musty, cherny, etc make a real impact next year, their values rise. Same with cagnoni. And who knows, maybe a lund or Pohlkamp surprises and gets into the conversation.

Right now, other than Eklund (and maybe Smith), the sharks have nothing remotely proven to offer Buffalo. However, if one or more of the prospects really hits next year, then we have multiple young NHLers to offer, rather than just prospects and picks. We will still have at least an extra 1st and two seconds, along with any TDL UFA sale haul, so we will have many early picks to dangle too.

We will likely be in a far far better position to make a huge swing a year from now. Our trade bait will be more valuable. Our information on team needs and prospect contributions will be far more clear. The iron will likely be a whole lot hotter in '26.