Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Star Platinum]

Whut?

When Warso tells the guys about his days checking guys in Belgium league hockey, it inspires them to work harder on their game so they don't end up there.

 

[OrrNumber4]

If we end up with Hagens, Dickinson's not ready, and get shut out in free agency, we're going to wish Ferraro wasn't moved. For a 1st, done. But if all we're getting is a 2nd, I feel confident that offer will be there next deadline.

An underrated reason for why Grier took on Grundstrom, Dellandrea, and Goodrow was because of this exact reason. There are downsides to covering every contingency...

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I mean the culture here as never that bad to begin with, but the complacency for losing because the front office and the fans excuse it because we're rebuilding and losing is good for future potential stars could have negative repercussions. Chicago is a good example. Vital pieces wanting out and just a generally miserable environment it seems.

I'm not sure why you're worried about the front office complacency. It's their third year and this is the first year multiple future players started to get some experience. Were we supposed to be competitive in the past two years under Grier? Were we supposed to be this year knowing we had two teenage rookies coming in this season? This isn't about being complacent. This is about putting in the time and work necessary to build a competitive team through the draft mostly because that's our only path forward. I just don't see how guys like Jones or Ferraro are supposed to be viewed at as a vital piece now or moving forward. They're not. They can lose this way with him. They can lose this way without him. The consequences of said losing is there regardless of their presence so why be worried about something that our recent history shows he is not influential on in any meaningful sense.

The Sharks aren't going to be competitive until our young core of guys like Eklund, Celebrini, Smith, Askarov, and any high draft picks get better and lead the team themselves. A lot of the times you just don't get there unless those kids experience the losing and do the work to get better. Ferraro is just not going to have any sort of impact on that. Jones didn't with Chicago either and that's okay to recognize and move on from if the player is ready or if the team finds the right deal.

 

[TheBeard]

I'm not sure why you're worried about the front office complacency. It's their third year and this is the first year multiple future players started to get some experience. Were we supposed to be competitive in the past two years under Grier? Were we supposed to be this year knowing we had two teenage rookies coming in this season? This isn't about being complacent. This is about putting in the time and work necessary to build a competitive team through the draft mostly because that's our only path forward. I just don't see how guys like Jones or Ferraro are supposed to be viewed at as a vital piece now or moving forward. They're not. They can lose this way with him. They can lose this way without him. The consequences of said losing is there regardless of their presence so why be worried about something that our recent history shows he is not influential on in any meaningful sense.

The Sharks aren't going to be competitive until our young core of guys like Eklund, Celebrini, Smith, Askarov, and any high draft picks get better and lead the team themselves. A lot of the times you just don't get there unless those kids experience the losing and do the work to get better. Ferraro is just not going to have any sort of impact on that. Jones didn't with Chicago either and that's okay to recognize and move on from if the player is ready or if the team finds the right deal.

I'm sure if Grier was honest to Tyler prior to free agenct that the plan was to be even worse this year I'm not as sure he would have been willing to sign.

Ferraro's impact is to lessen the pressure on any young kid and on the front office to play them if they don't think they're ready. He's durable, a gamer and doesn't miss time. He's played ten more games than the next most D-man, which is insane to think about.

 

[matt trick]

Granny was acquired for one reason only: cap dump. That's it. Hoffman and ruuta too. His success in teal, although not wholly shocking, was just a bonus. In truth, getting a 1st out of him is a big win from the EK trade.

As for leadership skills, I think granny did a wonderful job there, but I dont think it really mattered that much in terms of locker room presence. I think Warso is the key there, and bringing in toffoli too.

As for possession metrics, the sharks dont possess the puck because they are toooooo small!!! Teams with their top 6 forwards all 6' or less and all but two at 190lbs or less are not gunna succeed in a puck possession, cycle type system. We simply cannot win battles consistently and possess pucks so transition and quickness is the only way to play with that kind of make up. This is why I cannot remember a shift in the O zone lasting 1.5 or 2 mins. The sharks of old did that all the time with jumbo, hertl, meier, patty, Kane, Cooch, Ward, Heatley, Clowe... all roughly +/- 6'2, 220 (+/- an inch or two and 10 lbs). Guys with that kind of size and skill can dominate a shift and possess the puck forever, not to menion burns' size. Thats a big reason why the sharks were so successful for so long.

Sharks have to get bigger and start stacking up guys in the 6'2, 220 range. I wouldnt be surprised if their size is also partly why they struggle so much in the 3rd. They lose battles, and if they stop skating as much or get tired, they find themselves hemmed in for days. This is especially important up front since forwards tend to possess the puck more than D, particularly in the O zone. This is why chernyshov, musty, haltunnen, and Bystedt are so important and why I dont mind moving Cagnoni, cardwell, gush, bordy for some better size. I would even be willing to part with eklund if the right deal came along.

I don't think size alone- particularly at forward- drives offensive zone time. Tampa Bay's forwards were tiny. However, much like the Sharks of old (Thornton, Marleau, Clowe, Couture, Pavelski, and Hertl) they had serious play drivers up front and defenseman who were great both ways. Size is a problem for the Sharks, but the principal issue is talent.

Palat (6th round)-Johnson (Undrafted FA)-Kucherov (Third Round)
Killorn (3rd round)-Point (3rd round)-Stamkos (1st round)
Goodrow (Traded 1st)-Gourde (AHL UFA)-Coleman (Traded 1st)
Maroon (UFA)-Paquette (4th round)-Cirelli (3rd round)

Big:
6'3: Maroon (Cherny, Bystedt, Haltunnen)
6'2: Goodrow, Killorn (Wennberg, Musty)

Average:
6'0/6'1: Stamkos, Paquette, Cirelli, Palat (Celebrini, Smith, Tofolli)

Small Bois:
5'11: Point, Coleman, Kucherov (Eklund, Zetterlund)
5'8 or 5'9: Johnson, Gourde

Unlike their forwards, their defense was massive- Hedman (6'6), Cernak (6'4), Bogosian (6'2), Schenn (6'2), Sergachev (6'2), McDonagh (6'1), and Shatenkirk (6'0- 6th d-man I think?) were massive though. They could largely skate well too. I would love to see Grier replicate that. Schaefer, Dickinson, Muk would be a real nice template for that.

 

[sampler]

I'm sure if Grier was honest to Tyler prior to free agenct that the plan was to be even worse this year I'm not as sure he would have been willing to sign.

Ferraro's impact is to lessen the pressure on any young kid and on the front office to play them if they don't think they're ready. He's durable, a gamer and doesn't miss time. He's played ten more games than the next most D-man, which is insane to think about.

I think grier thought, in full honesty, that the team would have a far better record than they do. In truth, if they werent historically bad in late game situations, they would be far far more reasonable. .450 win % when leading after 2? and go knows how bad when tied in the 3rd. If they won even half their games when tied in the 3rd period they'd be respectable. Not playoff quite, but far from the basement. Its weird how competitive they are and yet how bad the actual results have been. Really historically weird....

Ferraro can go. I expect he will. Maybe he can be a key piece going the other way for one of the young D. I dunno. Having a warm body take up a spot on the blue line is hardly much value even if it means giving softer time to kids.

the sharks need real top 4D. a few of 'em... I would not favor ditching ferraro for a bag of pucks (3rd rounder or less). I would favor moving him in a deal to upgrade the D or for a 1st rounder. It's all about the return....

 

[Juxtaposer]

I'd be hesitant to move Ferraro without getting a 1st (perhaps giving up COL 2nd in exchange or as payment for retention). At that price the value is so ridiculous you let him go. You can trade him for a second next deadline or at any point during the year once you know what you have. We'll also have the retention option next year (though might want it for Walman, Liljigren, or Wennberg).

Otherwise, I'd rather go into next season knowing that we have Walman, Ferraro, Muk, Liljigren, and hopefully 1 top 4 RHD addition. If Dickinson or Schaefer are ready, one of them, and Thrun or Vlasic (might need his cap) fill out the roster. What UFA d-men are better than Ferraro? Gavrikov, Kovacevic, Ekblad, Fabbro, Chychrun, and Provorov. Get shut out of those six and next year will be bottom two again (I think it will be anyway, but I'd love to not waive the white flag at the end of the summer)

If we end up with Hagens, Dickinson's not ready, and get shut out in free agency, we're going to wish Ferraro wasn't moved. For a 1st, done. But if all we're getting is a 2nd, I feel confident that offer will be there next deadline.

I'm also coming around on Mario for sure. A few months ago, I was team "trade him for whatever". Now I'm team "keep him unless you get a good offer". I've liked his pairing with Mukh the last several games and the reality is that he's serviceable in the right situations.

Thrun and Vlasic need to be launched into the sun this summer. Ferraro is still useful. And I do believe Ferraro has played the right side in a pinch.

My thoughts are:
1: check in with Mario, see if he actively wants to be traded. If he does, then move him like Hertl/Karlsson/Burns before him. He's been a good soldier and earned a chance to play meaningful hockey.
2: if he's fine waiting it out, then feel out offers at the draft. Whether or not we get Schaefer does impact my desire to move Ferraro. If you get a legitimate offer for him, consider moving him. If not, there's no harm in keeping him.
3: if he's still on the team by the next deadline, then you move him to a playoff team then when we have a retention slot open and can get more value for him.

 

[matt trick]

Fun fact on Vlasic, he's going to pass Mark Giordano for all time blocks in the next game or two he plays. He's three behind. Kind of cool he'll do it entirely with the Sharks. Hopefully the team gets him silver shinpads before he rides off into the sunset. Pietro and Carlson will catch him next year, and I've got to think Tanev, Josi, McDonagh and maybe Hedman will too, but it's pretty cool.

Buying him out doesn't save much, but I do agree the spot could be better spend elsewhere. All for Thrun being sent out, but with only a year left, and a lot of positive talk from Warsofsky, I imagine he's here next year.

Other than Muk, I'd be surprised if any of the currently rostered d-men are on the team for the first year of Celebrini's second contract, and Muk himself is not a sure thing. I'd have Liljigren as next most likely simply because our RHD is non-existent.

 

[sampler]

I don't think size alone- particularly at forward- drives offensive zone time. Tampa Bay's forwards were tiny. However, much like the Sharks of old (Thornton, Marleau, Clowe, Couture, Pavelski, and Hertl) they had serious play drivers up front and defenseman who were great both ways. Size is a problem for the Sharks, but the principal issue is talent.

Palat (6th round)-Johnson (Undrafted FA)-Kucherov (Third Round)
Killorn (3rd round)-Point (3rd round)-Stamkos (1st round)
Goodrow (Traded 1st)-Gourde (AHL UFA)-Coleman (Traded 1st)
Maroon (UFA)-Paquette (4th round)-Cirelli (3rd round)

Big:
6'3: Maroon (Cherny, Bystedt, Haltunnen)
6'2: Goodrow, Killorn (Wennberg, Musty)

Average:
6'0/6'1: Stamkos, Paquette, Cirelli, Palat (Celebrini, Smith, Tofolli)

Small Bois:
5'11: Point, Coleman, Kucherov (Eklund, Zetterlund)
5'8 or 5'9: Johnson, Gourde

Unlike their forwards, their defense was massive- Hedman (6'6), Cernak (6'4), Bogosian (6'2), Schenn (6'2), Sergachev (6'2), McDonagh (6'1), and Shatenkirk (6'0- 6th d-man I think?) were massive though. They could largely skate well too. I would love to see Grier replicate that. Schaefer, Dickinson, Muk would be a real nice template for that.

I dont know if tampa played a possession game, and their big D might have been effective in limiting opposition possession and chances.

Still, I wonder if Tampa is the exception to the rule.
Florida was big.
Avs were Big (rantannen 6'4, 215, mckinnon 6' 200, Burakovsky 6'3, 205, landeskog 6'1, 215, Nichushkin (6'4, 210)... Kadri is not huge, but most of their top forwards were pretty beefy.
Vegas was pretty big: Eichel 6'2, Smith 6'1, stephenson 6', karlsson 6', stone 6'3.... only marchassault was on the smaller side and I suppose kessel at 5'11, though 210 lbs....
Blues of 2019: orielly 6'1, terasenko 6'1, schenn 6'1, perron 6', Bozak 6'1... jaden shcwarz was the lone undersized guy.

Im not saying that you need a team full of 6'1-6'4 guys, but you have to have some in your top 6/9. Like at least half if you want any kind of possession game. The sharks, of today, have none. Imagine a guy with the size of Kostin and the skill of celebrini. Thats what the sharks need more of...

Obviously, size and skill on the back end is also awesome for shutting down opponent cycles, winning net front battles in the D zone, and just moving people out of the way as well as winning battles to keep pucks in at the point against opposition wingers. Bid D is also very helpful.

 

[Cas]

I dont know if tampa played a possession game, and their big D might have been effective in limiting opposition possession and chances.

Still, I wonder if Tampa is the exception to the rule.
Florida was big.
Avs were Big (rantannen 6'4, 215, mckinnon 6' 200, Burakovsky 6'3, 205, landeskog 6'1, 215, Nichushkin (6'4, 210)... Kadri is not huge, but most of their top forwards were pretty beefy.
Vegas was pretty big: Eichel 6'2, Smith 6'1, stephenson 6', karlsson 6', stone 6'3.... only marchassault was on the smaller side and I suppose kessel at 5'11, though 210 lbs....
Blues of 2019: orielly 6'1, terasenko 6'1, schenn 6'1, perron 6', Bozak 6'1... jaden shcwarz was the lone undersized guy.

Im not saying that you need a team full of 6'1-6'4 guys, but you have to have some in your top 6/9. Like at least half if you want any kind of possession game. The sharks, of today, have none. Imagine a guy with the size of Kostin and the skill of celebrini. Thats what the sharks need more of...

Obviously, size and skill on the back end is also awesome for shutting down opponent cycles, winning net front battles in the D zone, and just moving people out of the way as well as winning battles to keep pucks in at the point against opposition wingers. Bid D is also very helpful.

If we had a guy with Celebrini's skill and Kostin's size (used effectively), we'd have an obvious, no-doubt Hall of Famer. I think that's a bit out of the question...

 

[sampler]

I'm also coming around on Mario for sure. A few months ago, I was team "trade him for whatever". Now I'm team "keep him unless you get a good offer". I've liked his pairing with Mukh the last several games and the reality is that he's serviceable in the right situations.

Thrun and Vlasic need to be launched into the sun this summer. Ferraro is still useful. And I do believe Ferraro has played the right side in a pinch.

My thoughts are:
1: check in with Mario, see if he actively wants to be traded. If he does, then move him like Hertl/Karlsson/Burns before him. He's been a good soldier and earned a chance to play meaningful hockey.
2: if he's fine waiting it out, then feel out offers at the draft. Whether or not we get Schaefer does impact my desire to move Ferraro. If you get a legitimate offer for him, consider moving him. If not, there's no harm in keeping him.
3: if he's still on the team by the next deadline, then you move him to a playoff team then when we have a retention slot open and can get more value for him.

yep, agreed. a first will do it. as a key cog to get an upgrade will do it. Otherwise, no thanks.

The truth is that picks in the late 2nd-7th rounds are nearly useless. the chances of hitting an impact player in the 4th round, for instance, is likely under 5%-10%. Take any random year and I bet you find no more than 2 or 3 top 6 forwards, or top 4 D, or #1G in the third or fourth round. A pick that ends up a 4th liner or 6th D is not really valuable at all, even if it makes it, because such players are a dime a dozen at UFA and cost roughly the same as an ELC contract.

If you look at the sharks drafts from 2012-2020, the only top 6 F or top 4 D taken in the 3-7th rounds is kevin labanc. that's it! 43 picks, one somewhat real hit. As such, a 3rd or 4th rounder is practically useless. I wouldnt dump ferraro for nothing, and even a later 2nd rounder is maybe a 10-15% chance of a legit hit. This means that we need a 1st or a real top 4 NHL D in a bigger trade.

p.s.: ferraro could be useful if we can get at least or two other top 4 D. he can eat some PK mins and serve as a reasonable #4 for a year.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I'm sure if Grier was honest to Tyler prior to free agenct that the plan was to be even worse this year I'm not as sure he would have been willing to sign.

Ferraro's impact is to lessen the pressure on any young kid and on the front office to play them if they don't think they're ready. He's durable, a gamer and doesn't miss time. He's played ten more games than the next most D-man, which is insane to think about.

I really doubt Grier thought we'd be worse this season nor do I think he views that we are worse this season. I doubt Toffoli feels differently either. But there were other reasons he signed here too.

I agree that Ferraro can do that but so can a lot of guys the Sharks can go out and grab. Two cap dumps from other teams were brought in this year to do what you're describing. I think that sort of player will be available to the Sharks if they happen to extract value out of a Ferraro trade. I think improving on at least one of Ferraro or Walman either through an external acquisition or internal development makes the most sense for this team moving forward.

 

[LadyStanley]

 

[TheBeard]

I really doubt Grier thought we'd be worse this season nor do I think he views that we are worse this season. I doubt Toffoli feels differently either. But there were other reasons he signed here too.

Talent-wise we're significantly better, yet leadership-wise we're miles worse. Like him or not, David Quinn would have been a much better option this season.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Talent-wise we're significantly better, yet leadership-wise we're miles worse. Like him or not, David Quinn would have been a much better option this season.

I don't think he would have. Quinn's teams got boatraced more than this team with more vets in Quinn's lineups while suffering a comparable amount of blown leads themselves.

 

[TheBeard]

I don't think he would have. Quinn's teams got boatraced more than this team with more vets in Quinn's lineups while suffering a comparable amount of blown leads themselves.

The aforementioned vets were Hoffman,Burroughs, Bailey and Lebanc.

The talent level between this year and last is miles apart.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

The aforementioned vets were Hoffman,Burroughs, Bailey and Lebanc.

The talent level between this year and last is miles apart.

And the season before that when guys like Couture, Hertl, Meier, and Karlsson were all there? They were still getting boatraced and blowing leads under Quinn with veteran talents and not just veteran fillers.

 

[TheBeard]

And the season before that when guys like Couture, Hertl, Meier, and Karlsson were all there? They were still getting boatraced and blowing leads under Quinn with veteran talents and not just veteran fillers.

IT seems the worst of 22-23 happened post TDL going 4-17 since. It was clear once Meier was traded the only goal was to get EK65 his 100 points.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

IT seems the worst of 22-23 happened post TDL going 4-17 since. It was clear once Meier was traded the only goal was to get EK65 his 100 points.

Maybe so but by game 62 of that season, they had lost 14 or 15 games by three or more goals as well. I think a coach in either of these instances is doing the best with what they have.

 

[PeoriaBlues309]

Blues fan coming in peace. I saw that Army was scouting your game against Toronto tonight. The common thought is that it could be for a potential Schenn deal with TOR, but I don’t see that actually happening with the way we’ve played post-4N break.

What would the acquisition cost be for a Wennberg or Kunin? We definitely need to upgrade on Sundqvist at the 3C spot if we’re truly going for a playoff push.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Blues fan coming in peace. I saw that Army was scouting your game against Toronto tonight. The common thought is that it could be for a potential Schenn deal with TOR, but I don’t see that actually happening with the way we’ve played post-4N break.

What would the acquisition cost be for a Wennberg or Kunin? We definitely need to upgrade on Sundqvist at the 3C spot if we’re truly going for a playoff push.

Howdy! I would take a 3rd for Kunin, anything less and I'd rather just keep him around for the culture. Wennberg is essentially immoveable at this point for anything reasonable; if we moved him, we'd have literally one top-9 center (an 18 year old) and he has another season on his contract.

 

[Gecklund]

What a misleading headline

This is based on the 32 thoughts podcast today which like Friedman said Kunin and Sturm are available and there’s some interest so we will see. Nothing about “they’re getting the most interest”

Blues fan coming in peace. I saw that Army was scouting your game against Toronto tonight. The common thought is that it could be for a potential Schenn deal with TOR, but I don’t see that actually happening with the way we’ve played post-4N break.

What would the acquisition cost be for a Wennberg or Kunin? We definitely need to upgrade on Sundqvist at the 3C spot if we’re truly going for a playoff push.

Wennberg I likely wouldn’t move right now without a first coming back and even then I’m hesitant. Worth more to us than to anyone else.

Kunin I’d start the asking at a 2nd but settle for like a 3rd+prospect

 

[PeoriaBlues309]

@Juxtaposer @Gecklund

Word! For some reason I thought Smith was playing center still, and that Wennberg was the 3C. I definitely understand why you wouldn’t want your only real top 9 C’s being teenagers though.

I wouldn’t balk at the price for Kunin, but we don’t have our 2nd or 3rd rounder’s this year due to the absolute heist we pulled on the Oilers for Holloway/Broberg. Plus, he’s a STL kid, so I could see Army being interested in bringing him home.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Blues fan coming in peace. I saw that Army was scouting your game against Toronto tonight. The common thought is that it could be for a potential Schenn deal with TOR, but I don’t see that actually happening with the way we’ve played post-4N break.

What would the acquisition cost be for a Wennberg or Kunin? We definitely need to upgrade on Sundqvist at the 3C spot if we’re truly going for a playoff push.

Wennberg would be a legitimate upgrade. I don't see Kunin as a viable 3C. Wennberg has full no-move so if he doesn't want to go, there's nothing to be done there.

 

[PeoriaBlues309]

Wennberg would be a legitimate upgrade. I don't see Kunin as a viable 3C. Wennberg has full no-move so if he doesn't want to go, there's nothing to be done there.

Yeah, Wennberg would be about as good of an upgrade as we could get that makes sense for our third line. I had serious interest in the Blues signing him over the summer as a FA.