Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[tiburon12]

Good gods, NO NO NO on Marner. Haven't the Sharks learned their lesson from Joe Thornton?

Hence why think Bennett is a great target

 

[DG93]

Good gods, NO NO NO on Marner. Haven't the Sharks learned their lesson from Joe Thornton?

Eh, different situation. Jumbo was the guy here whereas Marner would be 1B to Macklin Celebrini. I'd think of it more like adding Phil Kessel to Crosby...it would be just fine.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Eh, different situation. Jumbo was the guy here whereas Marner would be 1B to Macklin Celebrini. I'd think of it more like adding Phil Kessel to Crosby...it would be just fine.

That's a poor comparison. Crosby was already well-established, and that team had Malkin, Letang, and Murray/Fleury....not to mention Marner would be looking to double what Kessel was making (and the cap is up, what, 30%?) You can win with someone like Marner if he is #4-6. And if you pay him that much, it will be difficult to justify him at that level.

 

[Jargon]

I read that more as there being a need to be discerning. Not just to try and throw money at your problem. Not that he wouldn't try and sign a big name UFA to a big contract.

Again, not that this is going to be a problem, we aren't going to sign a big name UFA. I just mean that he should try.

Oh I agree. I just think Grier has been fairly consistent in his reticence to give out very long-term deals, particularly ones that will age poorly. Marner is still young, I can see him being more okay giving him a longer term deal, but generally I think he’s very hesitant to do that.

Like I said, I see him more inclined to give people big numbers for shorter deals, which I think works just fine.

 

[Mr Fahrenheit]

That's a poor comparison. Crosby was already well-established, and that team had Malkin, Letang, and Murray/Fleury....not to mention Marner would be looking to double what Kessel was making (and the cap is up, what, 30%?) You can win with someone like Marner if he is #4-6. And if you pay him that much, it will be difficult to justify him at that level.

And in a few years when Celebrini has become Crosby, and Chernyshov is Malkin of course, Marners cap % would be like Kessels

 

[Sharksfan66]

That's a poor comparison. Crosby was already well-established, and that team had Malkin, Letang, and Murray/Fleury....not to mention Marner would be looking to double what Kessel was making (and the cap is up, what, 30%?) You can win with someone like Marner if he is #4-6. And if you pay him that much, it will be difficult to justify him at that level.

I like to think of it more like the Bruins signing Savard in 2006.

Top line offensive player who who ended up contributing significantly to their competitive window but they singed him (and Chara) before they were ready to actually compete.

The way Bruins fans talk, trading Jumbo opened up the cap space to sign these guys and was a big part of their eventual cup win. Now, I think there's a bit of a cope going on there, but I do think there is something to be said for a young team maximizing their cap space by adding top of the lineup players for free if you can.

Assuming we draft top 3 this year, are we really so far off where Boston was in 2006?

 

[Jargon]

I would absolutely sign Marner. He’s 27, will likely be good through a full 7 year contract, and is really f***ing good. I suspect he’d enjoy playing in the Sharks environment far more than he does in Toronto — plus, his parents, Patty and Joe, live here.

I doubt it’ll happen but he’d be an amazing addition.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I would absolutely sign Marner. He’s 27, will likely be good through a full 7 year contract, and is really f***ing good. I suspect he’d enjoy playing in the Sharks environment far more than he does in Toronto — plus, his parents, Patty and Joe, live here.

I doubt it’ll happen but he’d be an amazing addition.

He'll be 28 when he signs his next contract. My issue with Marner is the likely 12-13 mil asking price when a lot of his productivity comes from setting up Nylander and we don't really have that kind of goal scorer.

 

[TheBeard]

I would absolutely sign Marner. He’s 27, will likely be good through a full 7 year contract, and is really f***ing good. I suspect he’d enjoy playing in the Sharks environment far more than he does in Toronto — plus, his parents, Patty and Joe, live here.

I doubt it’ll happen but he’d be an amazing addition.

I'd give it one more year before making that massive plunge.

I want to see Celebrini and Smith really take the next step to show they're gonna be more than just good players. I want to see what Asky can do with a bigger workload and I want to see if Dickinson and/or Luca, Shakir etc can be NHL talents.

 

[Kcoyote3]

Think an add like Marner is going to be necessary, so if it's a fit I think it just adds another piece to this rebuild. I like the idea of going after someone of his caliber.

 

[Juxtaposer]

He'll be 28 when he signs his next contract. My issue with Marner is the likely 12-13 mil asking price when a lot of his productivity comes from setting up Nylander and we don't really have that kind of goal scorer.

First everyone said his production was a product of Matthews, then Matthews went down and Marner kept on producing. Now he's a product of Nylander? Even though they're both RWs?

And that's beside the point that we do actually have "that kind of goalscorer".

This is all a moot point, since he's not signing here, but if he has even a baseline level of interest in coming to SJ you 100% push it as far as you can go.

 

[Cas]

First everyone said his production was a product of Matthews, then Matthews went down and Marner kept on producing. Now he's a product of Nylander? Even though they're both RWs?

Marner has played 88 minutes 5v5 with Nylander this season. Matthews and Knies are by far his most common linemates, followed by Tavares and whoever Bobby McMann is.

 

[Hodge]

Marner vs. Ehlers is an interesting debate. They're fairly similar in skill level but the massive difference is that one averages over 21 minutes per game while the other plays under 16. In terms of 5v5 points per 60, Marner is at 2.69 over the last three years while Ehlers is 2.52. One of them is centered by Matthews and the other by Vladislav Namestnikov.

Is Winnipeg correct to think Ehlers is so bad at aspects of the game other than generating offense that he deserves 3rd line minutes and 2nd unit PP time? Could knocking Marner's usage down a minute or two help him play with more intensity? AFP Analytics has Marner projected at 8x12.5M and Ehlers at 6x7.5M. At those numbers, I think you have to go with Ehlers.

 

[Jargon]

Marner vs. Ehlers is an interesting debate. They're fairly similar in skill level but the massive difference is that one averages over 21 minutes per game while the other plays under 16. In terms of 5v5 points per 60, Marner is at 2.69 over the last three years while Ehlers is 2.52. One of them is centered by Matthews and the other by Vladislav Namestnikov.

Is Winnipeg correct to think Ehlers is so bad at aspects of the game other than generating offense that he deserves 3rd line minutes and 2nd unit PP time? Could knocking Marner's usage down a minute or two help him play with more intensity? AFP Analytics has Marner projected at 8x12.5M and Ehlers at 6x7.5M. At those numbers, I think you have to go with Ehlers.

I'd gladly sign Ehlers too. I think my thing is that likely neither player would really want to sign with the Sharks but there's like a 2% chance with Marner only because he obviously really loves Joe and Marleau, and if, say, Toronto fizzles out again in the playoffs and he's once again crucified for it, I can kinda see him signing with the Sharks as a bit of an escape.

I'm not sure Ehlers will want to go from Winnipeg to San Jose, but maybe? Hell, let's sign both!

 

[Juxtaposer]

Marner has played 88 minutes 5v5 with Nylander this season. Matthews and Knies are by far his most common linemates, followed by Tavares and whoever Bobby McMann is.

Right. Marner has clearly been the bus driver in Toronto this season.

Marner vs. Ehlers is an interesting debate. They're fairly similar in skill level but the massive difference is that one averages over 21 minutes per game while the other plays under 16. In terms of 5v5 points per 60, Marner is at 2.69 over the last three years while Ehlers is 2.52. One of them is centered by Matthews and the other by Vladislav Namestnikov.

Is Winnipeg correct to think Ehlers is so bad at aspects of the game other than generating offense that he deserves 3rd line minutes and 2nd unit PP time? Could knocking Marner's usage down a minute or two help him play with more intensity? AFP Analytics has Marner projected at 8x12.5M and Ehlers at 6x7.5M. At those numbers, I think you have to go with Ehlers.

I just don't believe in Ehlers being a top liner at this point. If he were, then he wouldn't be being deployed the way he is ten years into his career. It was one thing to say he was underutilized that and that his numbers were depressed by his usage when he was a 23 year old flying around and generating loads of rush offense. But at this point he is what he is, and that's nowhere near as valuable as Marner.

I've likened Ehlers to Phil Kessel before and I'll do it again; I don't think you can win with Ehlers as a major part of your team, but you absolutely could with him on your third line a la 2016 Kessel on the Pens.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Think an add like Marner is going to be necessary, so if it's a fit I think it just adds another piece to this rebuild. I like the idea of going after someone of his caliber.

No concerns over Marner's playoff performances?

 

[sampler]

I would love the sharks to go big this summer. Ehlers (8M) and marner (12M) along with Ekblad (8), pionk (8), and chechryn (8) would be alot of fun. Even if the 5 of them cost 44M per year. The sharks are projected to have 43M in cap space next year. If they trade Ferraro, that would be 46M or so. they also have 7M coming off the books after next year with pickles, and another 8m off the books with cooch (and actually LTIR means 8m off the books already, making the real cap space w/o ferraro at 54m.)

The forwards with all 5 of those guys signed would be:

Mack-Marner-Toffoli
Smith-Ehlers-eklund
Wennberg-zetterlund-Kovalenko
Who cares (goodrow, grund, dyll)

That's a pretty strong forward lineup, and definitely a playoff caliber one. And that also assumes no rookie steps up and takes a top 9 role. Graf, gushkin, Bordeleau, Cardwell, Musty, Chernyshov, Bystedt.... Any could prove ready to take a larger role next year. Cherny especially looks almost NHL ready, and he sure has the size. He will also turn 20 early in the season as he is a bit old for his draft year.

Ekblad-Walman
Pionk-Chychryn
Liljgren-Mukh
Thrun

That top 4 D is definitely playoff worthy. Right now, Walman is the only guy who adds anything offensively and can eat good minutes. But with Pionk and Chychrun added, the sharks would now have at least 3 or 4 legit scoring threats from the blueline. it would also allow them to slowly slot in dick, cagnoni, thompson, or pohlcamp rather than forcing them into top 4 roles.

They have the cap space to make all these signings. I know its a pipe dream that is completely unrealistic, but its not like they cant fit it. Furthermore, They have 80M!! projected space in two years, so adding 50M this summer does not bankrupt them at all going forward. The only 2 main guys to resign in summer '26 are Ekman and Walman, and by then we should have at least 2 or 3 strong rookies make the team and take top 9 roles or top 4 D.

In complete honesty, if Grier decided to cash in the summer, he could leap the sharks into contention right away and would not hamstring the team at all going forward. Even in 5 years, when those plays are 33-34 years old and in major decline, the cap will be much higher and most importantly, all the young kids in the system now (including the '25 pick) will be coming into their primes, allowing for somewhat decreased production from the marner/Ehlers/Pionk types while still being a very strong team.

 

[sampler]

No concerns over Marner's playoff performances?

Playoffs? what are those exactly?

 

[Hodge]

I'd gladly sign Ehlers too. I think my thing is that likely neither player would really want to sign with the Sharks but there's like a 2% chance with Marner only because he obviously really loves Joe and Marleau, and if, say, Toronto fizzles out again in the playoffs and he's once again crucified for it, I can kinda see him signing with the Sharks as a bit of an escape.

I'm not sure Ehlers will want to go from Winnipeg to San Jose, but maybe? Hell, let's sign both!

We'll definitely have to overpay him (8.5M+ on a 7 year deal) but I hope the chance to be attached at the hip to Celebrini and guaranteed top unit PP time would be selling points. Some of the top contenders may also be more skeptical of committing that much money to Ehlers or straight up not have the space.

I just don't believe in Ehlers being a top liner at this point. If he were, then he wouldn't be being deployed the way he is ten years into his career. It was one thing to say he was underutilized that and that his numbers were depressed by his usage when he was a 23 year old flying around and generating loads of rush offense. But at this point he is what he is, and that's nowhere near as valuable as Marner.

I've likened Ehlers to Phil Kessel before and I'll do it again; I don't think you can win with Ehlers as a major part of your team, but you absolutely could with him on your third line a la 2016 Kessel on the Pens.

Maybe he ends up on the 3rd line by the time we're contending but at least for next season I don't see why Ehlers couldn't score 90+ points on Celebrini's wing while helping boost Celebrini's numbers as well. Just like Kessel in Toronto, Ehlers has never had a true top six center to play with since the Jets rarely use him with Scheifele.

 

[hohosaregood]

I'd gladly sign Ehlers too. I think my thing is that likely neither player would really want to sign with the Sharks but there's like a 2% chance with Marner only because he obviously really loves Joe and Marleau, and if, say, Toronto fizzles out again in the playoffs and he's once again crucified for it, I can kinda see him signing with the Sharks as a bit of an escape.

I'm not sure Ehlers will want to go from Winnipeg to San Jose, but maybe? Hell, let's sign both!

It depends on what role you're asking them to play. Marner plays a lot of minutes against tough competition and crushes it. Ehlers feasts on soft minutes. We're more in need of a Marner than an Ehlers right now but both would be sick.

 

[Juxtaposer]

We'll definitely have to overpay him (8.5M+ on a 7 year deal) but I hope the chance to be attached at the hip to Celebrini and guaranteed top unit PP time would be selling points. Some of the top contenders may also be more skeptical of committing that much money to Ehlers or straight up not have the space.

If you could get Ehlers on $8M x seven years, I would definitely do that. In four years when we're hopefully contending, that'll be second line money and having Ehlers driving play from the third line at that rate would be fine. I don't know if I'd go higher, which is why I don't know if Ehlers is a huge target of mine.

Maybe he ends up on the 3rd line by the time we're contending but at least for next season I don't see why Ehlers couldn't score 90+ points on Celebrini's wing while helping boost Celebrini's numbers as well. Just like Kessel in Toronto, Ehlers has never had a true top six center to play with since the Jets rarely use him with Scheifele.

I guess my point is that ten years into his career, the "never played with a top center" excuse isn't enough for me. They've tried him with Scheifele and they aren't good together. He's never really had chemistry with any of the centers Winnipeg has thrown at him. Feels very lone wolfish, which is why I don't think a good team wants him in their top-6.

 

[sampler]

On a more realistic (but sad note), I could see grier tip toe through this summer too. If he adds just one or two 2nd/3rd line level guys like wennberg/toffoli then we may leave the basement and end up like 6th worst, but to me, that makes little sense.

Grier may see patience as the name of the game and figure that '26-'27 is the real first year to "go for it". hell have a HUGE amount of cap space and a whole empty roster by then other than the kids. And Bystedt, Dick, Musty, Cherny, '25 top pick, and all those guys will be far more ready at 20-22 years old than next year. That said, I will be sad if thats the direction grier goes, yet again.

For me, I REALLLLLLY hope he goes hard to add at least two top 4 dmen. I wonder if the current forward group would be far far more productive if they had 2-3 more Walmans instead of playing offense largely 3 on 5 with ferraro or thrun, or whoever not named walman on the back end. Currently the sharks rank 25th in D points with approx 1/3 of that being Walman alone.

The great sharks teams of old always seemed to have multiple legit scoring threats from the blueline be it Boyle, Burns, pickles (in his prime), Ehrhoff, Blake, Carle, Stuart, Karlsson, Rivet...

Right now, after Walman's 29 pts, the next highest scoring defenseman on the current roster is Ferraro with a whopping 11 points. If we had a two more guys who could consistently put up 40 pts or more, it would revolutionize the roster and I think we'd see alot more out of the forward crew as well. Having a 3 or 4 guys on the blueline that can get shots through, keep pucks in, skate with the puck, and just make things happen would be so amazing.

Personally, I see adding two top 4 Dmen as priority one over any forward target. Trade for Dobson. Sign Chychrun. Sign Pionk. Add guys who can play 22+ minutes of solid two way play and give the sharks at least one, if not two legit scoring threats fromm the blueline on the ice at all times. Yum yum...

 

[Cas]

I would love the sharks to go big this summer. Ehlers (8M) and marner (12M) along with Ekblad (8), pionk (8), and chechryn (8) would be alot of fun. Even if the 5 of them cost 44M per year. The sharks are projected to have 43M in cap space next year. If they trade Ferraro, that would be 46M or so. they also have 7M coming off the books after next year with pickles, and another 8m off the books with cooch (and actually LTIR means 8m off the books already, making the real cap space w/o ferraro at 54m.)

The forwards with all 5 of those guys signed would be:

Mack-Marner-Toffoli
Smith-Ehlers-eklund
Wennberg-zetterlund-Kovalenko
Who cares (goodrow, grund, dyll)

That's a pretty strong forward lineup, and definitely a playoff caliber one. And that also assumes no rookie steps up and takes a top 9 role. Graf, gushkin, Bordeleau, Cardwell, Musty, Chernyshov, Bystedt.... Any could prove ready to take a larger role next year. Cherny especially looks almost NHL ready, and he sure has the size. He will also turn 20 early in the season as he is a bit old for his draft year.

Ekblad-Walman
Pionk-Chychryn
Liljgren-Mukh
Thrun

That top 4 D is definitely playoff worthy. Right now, Walman is the only guy who adds anything offensively and can eat good minutes. But with Pionk and Chychrun added, the sharks would now have at least 3 or 4 legit scoring threats from the blueline. it would also allow them to slowly slot in dick, cagnoni, thompson, or pohlcamp rather than forcing them into top 4 roles.

They have the cap space to make all these signings. I know its a pipe dream that is completely unrealistic, but its not like they cant fit it. Furthermore, They have 80M!! projected space in two years, so adding 50M this summer does not bankrupt them at all going forward. The only 2 main guys to resign in summer '26 are Ekman and Walman, and by then we should have at least 2 or 3 strong rookies make the team and take top 9 roles or top 4 D.

In complete honesty, if Grier decided to cash in the summer, he could leap the sharks into contention right away and would not hamstring the team at all going forward. Even in 5 years, when those plays are 33-34 years old and in major decline, the cap will be much higher and most importantly, all the young kids in the system now (including the '25 pick) will be coming into their primes, allowing for somewhat decreased production from the marner/Ehlers/Pionk types while still being a very strong team.

LTIR does not remove a contract from your cap hit.

No way I spend that much money on aging, middling players when we will soon have to extend Eklund, Celebrini, Smith, and Askarov.

That's also going to be awful defense going forward.

 

[sampler]

If you could get Ehlers on $8M x seven years, I would definitely do that. In four years when we're hopefully contending, that'll be second line money and having Ehlers driving play from the third line at that rate would be fine. I don't know if I'd go higher, which is why I don't know if Ehlers is a huge target of mine.


I guess my point is that ten years into his career, the "never played with a top center" excuse isn't enough for me. They've tried him with Scheifele and they aren't good together. He's never really had chemistry with any of the centers Winnipeg has thrown at him. Feels very lone wolfish, which is why I don't think a good team wants him in their top-6.

In reality, I would be surprised to see marner or ehlers as a target. The reason is not what you might think... Here's why:

I spoke with Warsofsky at the sipping sharks event and he mentioned the key thing missing for the sharks forwards. SIZE! mack 6'. smith 6'. Eklund 5'11. zetterlund 5'11". toffoli 6'. Kovalenko 5'10" (Granny was 5'10"). In other words, Wennberg was the only top 9 forward above 6 feet. We are tiny.

Compare this with cup champion florida.

13	Sam Reinhart	C	57	31	31	62	27	12	1995-11-06	28	West Vancouver, BC	6.01	196
19	Matthew Tkachuk	L	52	22	35	57	54	-3	1997-12-11	26	Scottsdale, AZ	6.02	202
16	Aleksander Barkov	C	47	14	38	52	12	2	1995-09-02	28	Tampere, Finland	6.03	214
23	Carter Verhaeghe	C	57	15	28	43	32	-13	1995-08-14	29	Toronto, ONT	6.02	183
15	Anton Lundell	C	56	13	23	36	24	10	2001-10-03	22	Espoo, Finland	6.01	196
9	Sam Bennett	C	55	18	17	35	62	-12	1996-06-20	28	Holland Landing, ONT	6.01	193
5	Aaron Ekblad	D	49	3	23	26	43	8	1996-02-07	28	Windsor, ONT	6.04	220
17	Evan Rodrigues	C	57	13	12	25	30	-1	1993-07-28	31	Toronto, ONT	5.11	182
70	Jesper Boqvist	C	54	12	9	21	14	-2	1998-10-30	25	Falun, Sweden	6.01	190
42	Gustav Forsling	D	57	8	13	21	10	30	1996-06-12	28	Linkoping, Sweden	6.01	199
27	Eetu Luostarinen	C	57	7	12	19	20	8	1998-09-02	25	Siilinjarvi, Finland	6.03	191

All of their current top 7 scorers are 6'1" or taller, and all but one of their top 11 scorers are 6'1" or taller with rodrigues as the lone exception.

I think the reason the sharks drafted Dick over Buium was size, and you look at the drafting ove the last couple years and it's obvious that the sharks leadership sees this as a priority issue.
Dick: 6'3"
Cherny 6'3"
Musty 6'2"
Haltunnen 6'3"
Svoboda 6'3"
Bystedt 6'3"
Lund 6'2"
Wetsch 6'1"

The sharks have spent nearly all of their early picks in the last three years on big players aside from Smith and celebrini. havelid and LSW are the lone exceptions. Even Misskey (6'2") and roberts (6'4") show this preference.

I am pretty sure that size is the number one thing that grier is looking to add this summer and going forward. Schaefer is 6'2", so I'm sure the sharks would take him if they can. I would bet big bucks that the sharks will NOT select Hagens no matter what. I would also not be surprised if they went for Martone over misa for this reason as well. marleau was 6'2" 220. Jumbo was 6'4" 220. Burns is 6'5", 230. Their size (and skill which was largely attached to their size especially for jumbo) helped the sharks dominate for a decade+.

Size matters in the NHL. Yes, some greats are small (sid the kid and many others), and if the skill is off the charts, then its off the charts. but otherwise, being a big, heavy, physical team is the identity I think grier is looking to create. His drafting shows a clear preference there and I would expect any UFA or trade targets to follow suit.

 

[sampler]

BTW, I would add that I would not be surprised to see the sharks smaller prospects or players on the trade block to add some size and skill as well. All the current pro top prospects and young players are smaller. I Gush, Cardwell, and Bordy are all smaller and all could be available. Even Eklund may be on the block for the right return. Mack and Smith are likely no trade players, but I really expect anyone else to be possible.

The real centerpiece I could see moved this summer is Cagnoni. #4 leading scoring defensemen in the entire AHL at age 19/20 (#2 in goals, top rookie D scorer and 8th in the entire league in rookie scoring. All that pro success after putting up 90 pts and +47 in 65 WHL games. These kind of stats, at his age, as a defensemen, would have to be very appealing as a trade acquisition target. It's also potentially the perfect time to trade him at his high value as a centerpiece to adding a top pairing NHL defensemen for many years.

If Dobson (6'4") hits the market, grier will definitely make a big play. Dallas 1st+Cagnoni+Ferraro could be a good enough return?