Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Jargon]

I don't think people are being precious with prospects, they're against paying a prohibitive cost for a single player when the team needs close to a dozen players. In 2 years, the Sharks will still be pretty bad. At that time, more of the roster will be made up of the current group of prospects, while still accruing other good prospects in the next 2 drafts plus whatever assets are accrued by trading vets like Kunin and Wennberg. Getting rid of 3 to 4 of them now only sets the rebuild back. The current focus should be getting at a minimum 5 NHL players out of Chernyshov, Musty, Halttunen, Cagnoni, Dickinson, Sahlin Wallenius, Svoboda, Pohlkamp, Bystedt, Lund etc. plus the picks in the upcoming draft. When they're starting to knock on the door of the playoffs and they have an up and coming team, then they can start moving out prospects and picks because at that time they'll only need to address 1 or 2 needs, not 10.

While I think the premise is correct, I also think you have to always keep your eyes open for opportune trades that will speed up your rebuild. The Sharks were lacking a real goalie prospect so they traded for an almost-ready one with a 1st and Edstrom. I’m glad they did that now and didn’t say; well, let’s just keep the 1st and Edstrom, keep building the pool and in 2 years we’ll find that goalie. You gotta take the opportunities.

Yes, there are lots of holes to fill (that’s what she said etc etc) but we know the obvious one: defense. We BADLY need high end defensive prospects and/or young but ready-to-go guys. We have a lot of offensive prospects, if a potential 1-2 defenseman becomes available now in exchange for one of our prospects, you do it.

 

[Juxtaposer]

If Dobson is available for a lesser D-man and a package of picks/prospects that aren't core assets, then obviously you make the trade. I don't think the Isles are going to go for that. The debate is only really if the ask for Dobson is a fringe core piece, like Eklund, Dickinson, or the 2025 1st (if not top-2).

 

[hohosaregood]

I guess if we get Misa instead of Schaefer, we could trade something like the DAL 1st + Musty + Ferraro for Dobson

 

[Star Platinum]

Yes, my point exactly. The Sharks were never going to be completely home-grown; next year they need to bring in more veteran help. The Sharks need to get a guy like Toffoli for the defense; a strong top-4 defenseman who can handle top-pairing minutes. They also should look at trading many of the assets they have to get a top young defenseman who could help the team right away.

For example, if Noah Dobson becomes available for Musty, the Dallas first, and maybe some other trivial assets...don't you say yes?

I'm honestly beyond sick of Noah Dobson's name being brought up because the trade suggestions are ridiculous. The Islanders hang up the phone instantly when they hear that offer.

I guess if we get Misa instead of Schaefer, we could trade something like the DAL 1st + Musty + Ferraro for Dobson

Please folks, stop with these ridiculous trade proposals. New York hangs up the phone instantly with that trash offer.

 

[OrrNumber4]

While I think the premise is correct, I also think you have to always keep your eyes open for opportune trades that will speed up your rebuild. The Sharks were lacking a real goalie prospect so they traded for an almost-ready one with a 1st and Edstrom. I’m glad they did that now and didn’t say; well, let’s just keep the 1st and Edstrom, keep building the pool and in 2 years we’ll find that goalie. You gotta take the opportunities.

Yes, there are lots of holes to fill (that’s what she said etc etc) but we know the obvious one: defense. We BADLY need high end defensive prospects and/or young but ready-to-go guys. We have a lot of offensive prospects, if a potential 1-2 defenseman becomes available now in exchange for one of our prospects, you do it.

When the Askarov trade happened, I was one of those questioning the timing. Why not keep the futures? But now I've seen Celebrini and Askarov play, and I think the timeline had been accelerated.

Of course, I'm not staying that if you wait a few years for Dickinson et.al to mature that Celebrini will be over-the-hill. But you'd be wasting the early years of the window.

 

[Hodge]

Some of you are seriously underrating Dobson. The guy I would compare him to is prime Dougie Hamilton, except Dobson is that player at 25 years old so there's still a chance he reaches an even higher ceiling. Elite skater, stretch passer, puck carrier and shooter. Not the highest hockey IQ so a bit turnover prone when forced to make quick decisions and not physical despite his size. But if he had either of those things going for him he'd be perceived as a prime Doughty or Burns level defenseman and have almost no chance of getting moved. He's still good enough defensively to be playable on a top pair without tanking your team. If he improves even a little bit over the next 2-3 years and you have him locked up long term at 9.5M or less with the cap going to $115M+ that's a huge competitive advantage.

 

[coooldude]

Some of you are seriously underrating Dobson. The guy I would compare him to is prime Dougie Hamilton, except Dobson is that player at 25 years old so there's still a chance he reaches an even higher ceiling. Elite skater, stretch passer, puck carrier and shooter. Not the highest hockey IQ so a bit turnover prone when forced to make quick decisions and not physical despite his size. But if he had either of those things going for him he'd be perceived as a prime Doughty or Burns level defenseman and have almost no chance of getting moved. He's still good enough defensively to be playable on a top pair without tanking your team. If he improves even a little bit over the next 2-3 years and you have him locked up long term at 9.5M or less with the cap going to $115M+ that's a huge competitive advantage.

You can agree with all this and still disagree he's worth 2OA. maybe if you're this bullish, you could make an argument at 4, but if I'm Grier I'm probably still making the pick if it's Martone.

 

[STL Shark]

Not disagreeing, just adding more context to the one that said we need to follow the penguins route and be a cup winner by year 3 of Celebrini's career(as the penguins did).

But following the penguins route means we need another 4 players to be drafted (hit potential) and to be a huge part of the core.

And we need a lockout or covid to impose strict financial circumstances that allow for us to be one of the few teams setup to handle ourselves due to having guys on rookie contracts.

The overlooked aspect of the Penguins model is that Crosby came in the first year post-lockout once the league created a salary cap. Malkin then the year after. They got insanely lucky to be in position with those two while the rest of the league was adjusting to salary cap life without insane bargains like that.

We're now in year 20 of the salary cap era and teams mostly know how to manage their cap and we're about to see the biggest jumps in salary cap we've ever seen. Situations are not remotely similar.

 

[STL Shark]

Dobson is prime Vlasic defensively compared to Gustafsson and Karlsson. His 70 point season on a notoriously low-scoring team doesn't mean much in and of itself but it's a reflection of Dobson's excellence as a puck mover which I thought everyone agreed was the biggest weakness of our defense corps.

Misa seems like more of a well-rounded player than one with any franchise level tools but maybe I'm underrating him.

His 70 point season coincided with the worst Islanders goals against season in 7 years. The only way he was able to stat fluff 70 points was because they wanted him to sacrifice defense for offense.

Dobson is prime Vlasic offensively compared to Karlsson as well. He's not an elite offenseman and he's not a defenseman that you can play in all situations. All of that clearly shows that he's not a #1 as you're valuing him.

You said prime Dougie Hamilton. That's probably not far off. Dougie Hamilton has never been a #1 on a team that has done anything. The Carolina teams that made conference finals that he was on, he was the #3/4 D-Man on those teams behind Slavin, Pesce, and sometimes Faulk.

Your Hamilton comp quite literally proves my point as to why it is asinine to trade the 2nd overall pick for Dobson. He's not a #1 no matter how hard you beat your chest about it to do your contrarian schtick.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

Some of you are seriously underrating Dobson. The guy I would compare him to is prime Dougie Hamilton, except Dobson is that player at 25 years old so there's still a chance he reaches an even higher ceiling. Elite skater, stretch passer, puck carrier and shooter. Not the highest hockey IQ so a bit turnover prone when forced to make quick decisions and not physical despite his size. But if he had either of those things going for him he'd be perceived as a prime Doughty or Burns level defenseman and have almost no chance of getting moved. He's still good enough defensively to be playable on a top pair without tanking your team. If he improves even a little bit over the next 2-3 years and you have him locked up long term at 9.5M or less with the cap going to $115M+ that's a huge competitive advantage.

Dougie Hamilton has been acquired for:

- 9th overall pick in 2011
- 15th+45th+52nd overall pick in 2015
- Noah Hanifin + Elias Lindholm (and CGY added Ferland + Fox’s rights in that deal) in 2018
- $9M/7Y in cap space in 2021

Never did anybody pay anywhere near a #2OV for him. So why the hell would we do that?

 

[Lebanezer]

While I think the premise is correct, I also think you have to always keep your eyes open for opportune trades that will speed up your rebuild. The Sharks were lacking a real goalie prospect so they traded for an almost-ready one with a 1st and Edstrom. I’m glad they did that now and didn’t say; well, let’s just keep the 1st and Edstrom, keep building the pool and in 2 years we’ll find that goalie. You gotta take the opportunities.

Yes, there are lots of holes to fill (that’s what she said etc etc) but we know the obvious one: defense. We BADLY need high end defensive prospects and/or young but ready-to-go guys. We have a lot of offensive prospects, if a potential 1-2 defenseman becomes available now in exchange for one of our prospects, you do it.

If Dobson costs the Dallas 1st and Halttunen, that's an easy trade to make, but he won't. Askarov wasn't an established player asking for 10+ million costing 4 quality assets, so of course you make that deal.

 

[matt trick]

The #1-3 d-men that even a small chance of becoming available are Sanheim, Josi, McAvoy, Byram, K'Andre Miller, maybe Chychrun, Pionk, Gavrikov, and Andersson (next year) in UFA, and one of Dobson/Pulock/Romanov. Sanheim, Josi, or McAvoy would require the team being blown up, which I don't see happening, but if #1 D surprisingly hit the market, these three are my best guesses.

Dobson is one of few young guys whose age makes him ideal, but he'll probably be the most expensive in terms of cap hit. I don't love him, but he's probably the best RHD we could acquire, and he may develop a more complete game.

If he was available, I'd pay a lot, but not a top 5 pick. Hopefully one of our next two picks is either Schaefer, Verhoeff, or Reid.

 

[one2gamble]

Please folks, stop with these ridiculous trade proposals. New York hangs up the phone instantly with that trash offer.

I bet they end up with something relatively close to that.....Probably a slightly better prospect than Musty.

1. Hes not actually that great
2. He has contract questions

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I bet they end up with something relatively close to that.....Probably a slightly better prospect than Musty.

1. Hes not actually that great
2. He has contract questions

It wouldn't be the first time Lou undersold on a defenseman. He did it with Toews. He could do it here. As long as they keep Celebrini, Smith, Askarov, Dickinson, and the top pick this year and next year off the table, I can probably live with the result but another team can definitely outbid us.

 

[Skeksis25]

What is the Isles want a deal centered around Eklund for Dobson? Obviously we would still need to add a bit, since a D >>> LW. But if instead of our firsts or the top prospects, they ask for Eklund+? Should we consider that?

 

[BaileyMacTavish]

Was listening to Locked on Sharks and JD mentioned Byram. Sounds intriguing and is a good way to exploit Buffalo's situation, but my only worry is how much would such a deal cost.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

What is the Isles want a deal centered around Eklund for Dobson? Obviously we would still need to add a bit, since a D >>> LW. But if instead of our firsts or the top prospects, they ask for Eklund+? Should we consider that?

I would consider it depending on what that plus actually is. As much as I like Eklund and would want him to be a Shark, the winger spot is the easiest to backfill and we need to build the defense and keep the middle competitive even if it's at the expense of the winger spots.

 

[Jargon]

Was listening to Locked on Sharks and JD mentioned Byram. Sounds intriguing and is a good way to exploit Buffalo's situation, but my only worry is how much would such a deal cost.

I don’t think Buffalo is a good trade partner because I think what they need are vets to help their prospects figure out how to win. I don’t think they want more prospects or picks at the point, which is what we’re flush with.

 

[BaileyMacTavish]

I don’t think Buffalo is a good trade partner because I think what they need are vets to help their prospects figure out how to win. I don’t think they want more prospects or picks at the point, which is what we’re flush with.

Yeah I figured as much. We don't have anything they need. Still a nice thought

 

[TheBeard]

What is the Isles want a deal centered around Eklund for Dobson? Obviously we would still need to add a bit, since a D >>> LW. But if instead of our firsts or the top prospects, they ask for Eklund+? Should we consider that?

I don't know if I would tbh. I feel like that would be a selling low on Eklund situation vs buying high on Dobson. It's also not like we're just bursting with NHL offensive talent. A lot of potential in the system but really only a couple of guys that have proven they can hang on the club.

 

[OrrNumber4]

I don’t think Buffalo is a good trade partner because I think what they need are vets to help their prospects figure out how to win. I don’t think they want more prospects or picks at the point, which is what we’re flush with.

Maybe Wennberg...

The Sharks traded Meier with retention for a good young player, a "B" prospect, a "C" prospect, a first-round pick, and a 2nd round pick. That's a winger, but Meier was also flying very high.

 

[gaucholoco3]

I would even consider moving next years first for Dobson top 3 protected if the Sharks were able to land a big UFA. Marner, Rantanen, or Ehlers with Schaefer or even Ekblad or Pionk with Misa.

Draft Schaefer.
Trade Dal 1st + Col 2nd (26) + additional picks or B level prospect for Nemec.
Trade Ferraro for 2nd
Marner given a blank check.
Trade 2026 1st (Top 2 protected) for Dobson (only with extension)

Eklund - Celebrini - Marner
Zetterlund - Smith - Toffoli
Graf/Kovalenko - Wenberg - Kunin/UFA
Grundstrom - Goodrow - Dellandrea

Walman - Dobson
Muk - Liljegren
Thrun - Nemec

Then in 26-27 run
Schaefer - Dobson
Muk - Nemec
Dickinson - UFA

While giving up a potential high draft pick if the team struggles next season. They would be set up in the future.

Elite 1C: Celebrini
Elite 1W: Marner
Scoring 2C: Smith
Complementary 1/2W: Eklund
1LD: Schaefer
1RD: Dobson
Top 4 D: Dickinson and Nemec
Elite #1: Askarov

I don’t know what else this team would need top 10 picks for. The only projections that could likely fall flat are Dickinson and Nemec but they would not be asked to be top pairing players. This also doesn’t include any of the 3 power forwards (Musty, Chernysov, or Halttunen) hitting.

 

[STL Shark]

I don't know if I would tbh. I feel like that would be a selling low on Eklund situation vs buying high on Dobson. It's also not like we're just bursting with NHL offensive talent. A lot of potential in the system but really only a couple of guys that have proven they can hang on the club.

I think the solution to the top pairing on defense is going to have to come internally or from an Askarov situation of trading for a prospect that isn't a totally proven commodity.

If you draft Schaefer, it solves itself and then you maybe look into taking on a contract or just selling out cap space for someone like Ekblad on a mid-term deal - i.e. give him $9M over 5 years instead of another team offering maybe a 7x7. He gets almost equal money upfront ($45M vs $49M) while having the chance to get another deal at age 34 for more total money.

Other options would be to take on Korpisalo's contract as a backup goalie with someone like Carlo included with him in exchange for a 2nd round pick or something that cleans up the Boston books a bit. I'd personally do both of those moves if we can land Schaefer and give he and Dickinson legitimate RH partners in the top 4 when they make their debut in 2025 or 2026.

 

[Cas]

I would even consider moving next years first for Dobson top 3 protected if the Sharks were able to land a big UFA. Marner, Rantanen, or Ehlers with Schaefer or even Ekblad or Pionk with Misa.

Draft Schaefer.
Trade Dal 1st + Col 2nd (26) + additional picks or B level prospect for Nemec.
Trade Ferraro for 2nd
Marner given a blank check.
Trade 2026 1st (Top 2 protected) for Dobson (only with extension)

Eklund - Celebrini - Marner
Zetterlund - Smith - Toffoli
Graf/Kovalenko - Wenberg - Kunin/UFA
Grundstrom - Goodrow - Dellandrea

Walman - Dobson
Muk - Liljegren
Thrun - Nemec

Then in 26-27 run
Schaefer - Dobson
Muk - Nemec
Dickinson - UFA

While giving up a potential high draft pick if the team struggles next season. They would be set up in the future.

Elite 1C: Celebrini
Elite 1W: Marner
Scoring 2C: Smith
Complementary 1/2W: Eklund
1LD: Schaefer
1RD: Dobson
Top 4 D: Dickinson and Nemec
Elite #1: Askarov

I don’t know what else this team would need top 10 picks for. The only projections that could likely fall flat are Dickinson and Nemec but they would not be asked to be top pairing players. This also doesn’t include any of the 3 power forwards (Musty, Chernysov, or Halttunen) hitting.

That team is going to struggle next season - it's still almost certainly a very bad defense (your top pair are atrocious defensively, your other two pairs pair are an unproven prospect and a #6-7,) and the bottom six is very weak (your entire fourth line is AHL quality, your third line has one aging guy who belongs on a third line, a prospect, and a fourth liner). The Zetterlund-Smith-Toffoli line might be good, and might struggle heavily against any sort of pressure. This is a team built to pick 7th next year.

 

[TheBeard]

I think the solution to the top pairing on defense is going to have to come internally or from an Askarov situation of trading for a prospect that isn't a totally proven commodity.

If you draft Schaefer, it solves itself and then you maybe look into taking on a contract or just selling out cap space for someone like Ekblad on a mid-term deal - i.e. give him $9M over 5 years instead of another team offering maybe a 7x7. He gets almost equal money upfront ($45M vs $49M) while having the chance to get another deal at age 34 for more total money.

Other options would be to take on Korpisalo's contract as a backup goalie with someone like Carlo included with him in exchange for a 2nd round pick or something that cleans up the Boston books a bit. I'd personally do both of those moves if we can land Schaefer and give he and Dickinson legitimate RH partners in the top 4 when they make their debut in 2025 or 2026.

There are certainly routes they can take, but I do believe the team is probably gonna wait at least one more season after next before really beefing up the D. It may mean another year of older overpaid vets with a year left or so like Ryan Mcdonagh or Josh Manson.