Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Eklund72]

For me "his window" would more refer to his initial RFA status and slightly reduced salary, but given his skill and production it likely won't be that much of a discount anyway. Still the Sharks DO need to take advantage of their kids early years and reduced salary, but there is nothing indicating they will not do so. Having a few high skill players on low salaries makes a huge difference in building a cup team.

There is no way this team is a playoff team this year or next. We do not need to take advantage of Celebrini on his ELC. We’re just not going to get that good that fast. It’s the reality.

That being said I would look at guys like Byram and Nemec. Potentially Dobson but I think he’d be too pricey. Drafting Schaefer would be huge. If we get Misa we will probably be forced to trade for young NHL defenseman

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Depends on the draft. This one is starting to look like it stinks. The bigger issue might be getting the Islanders to agree to that trade unless Lou gets canned and they decide to start a rebuild.

Far and away the best option is drafting Schaefer. #1D who fits the age range of our core and should be Norris level within 3 years. But if that doesn't pan out, swinging two big futures-oriented trades for Dobson and Byram would set up our defense for the next 7-10 years. Sort of what Utah did bringing in Sergachev and Marino but on steroids.

I don't think it does depend on the draft but even if it did, there's no history to suggest that it does. Every single time a top five or even top ten draft pick where you know the position was moved, it was treated like a top tier asset and not a second tier one. The Islanders are the one team that would understand the perils of doing what you're suggesting given the Yashin trade was for 2OA. They'd 100% take a Dobson for 2OA deal in a heartbeat. I can agree with the premise that you'd want to do something like a Sergachev or Marino deal to make improvements to the team but Sergachev was dealt for the 11th overall pick and a couple 2nd rounders. Marino was dealt for a couple 2nd rounders. Those are not 2OA value packages or top tier assets.

 

[OrrNumber4]

There is no way this team is a playoff team this year or next. We do not need to take advantage of Celebrini on his ELC. We’re just not going to get that good that fast. It’s the reality.

That being said I would look at guys like Byram and Nemec. Potentially Dobson but I think he’d be too pricey. Drafting Schaefer would be huge. If we get Misa we will probably be forced to trade for young NHL defenseman

Not good enough.

Let me be clear: The goal should be to make the playoffs in 2026-2027, no excuses. That means a significant improvement next year.

Celebrini is going to be a top-15 center next year, and probably top-10 the year after. Askarov, gods willing, will be a Vezina candidate shortly enough. Strike while the iron is hot. The Sharks already had a playoff-caliber forward group. Fix the defense, and there you go...

 

[Hodge]

Not good enough.

Let me be clear: The goal should be to make the playoffs in 2026-2027, no excuses. That means a significant improvement next year.

Celebrini is going to be a top-15 center next year, and probably top-10 the year after. Askarov, gods willing, will be a Vezina candidate shortly enough. Strike while the iron is hot. The Sharks already had a playoff-caliber forward group. Fix the defense, and there you go...

I wouldn't say "no excuses." If Celebrini and/or Askarov don't take the step forward we're all expecting them to then there's nothing Grier or anyone else can do to make this a playoff team by then.

But because that's largely out of management's control, they should be operating on the assumption that Celebrini and Askarov will become top-15 players at their positions within the next couple of years. If that doesn't happen we're going to have to rebuild the rebuild anyway why not do everything we can to revamp the defense and maybe add another top six forward short of trading Celebrini, Askarov or Smith?

 

[PattyLafontaine]

Penguins got Crosby in 2006 and were Cup Champions in 09. It's perfectly realistic to expect us to be a playoff team by next year and Cup Favorites by Celebrini's third year.

Apparently you didn't look at what Pittsburgh had drafted prior to Crosby. The Sharks had next to nothing. The Penguins drafted lots of d men.

 

[Sharkz4Fun]

2OA for Noah Dobson?????????????????? hahhaha holy f***.

 

[Timo Time]

I just got caught up, but debating Noah Dobson for a hypothetical #2 pick has to be bordering on satire.

 

[Cas]

Not good enough.

Let me be clear: The goal should be to make the playoffs in 2026-2027, no excuses. That means a significant improvement next year.

Celebrini is going to be a top-15 center next year, and probably top-10 the year after. Askarov, gods willing, will be a Vezina candidate shortly enough. Strike while the iron is hot. The Sharks already had a playoff-caliber forward group. Fix the defense, and there you go...

Since when do we have a "playoff-caliber forward group?"

We have Celebrini, Smith, and Eklund - those are our top-six forwards, with some questions remaining about Smith. We have three prospects here - Musty, Chernyshov, and Halttunen - and the odds are that two of them will bust. Even if we get two of them to succeed at the NHL level, the odds are that one of them will not be a legitimate top-six forward, and that they won't be ready by 2027.

We have Toffoli and Zetterlund as well - one is a declining top nine forward who almost certainly will not belong in the top six by 2027, and the other might be able to play up the lineup but is probably best served in a depth, 2nd-3rd line complementary role.

We have a couple of depth guys who might still be worth something in 2027 - Wennberg (who will be a UFA before then), Kovalenko, maybe Kunin. We have a few prospects here too who might be ready by 2027 - Graf, Cardwell, Bystedt, and Lund, along with a number of extreme longshots.

I am fairly confident that everyone else on the NHL roster will not be in the NHL, or will just be a plug, in two years. The forward group here are just trash - Goodrow, Grundstrom, Dellandrea, Kostin, Duehr, and Sturm and Couture will be clearly gone by then (and I don't think much of Sturm anyway).

In two years, to have a "playoff-caliber forward group," we will need to add four top nine forwards and three-five depth forwards. To accomplish that internally, we will need every single one of our major prospects to hit within two years, or to have our lottery tickets totally explode. Accomplishing that externally, through trades and free agency, will be expensive and difficult. It is extremely, extremely unlikely that we will have a legitimate "playoff-caliber forward group" in two years, especially as we also have to build an NHL-quality defensive corps almost from scratch (because we are so bereft there, with maybe one player worthy of playing above a bottom pairing role - Walman - and that's debatable).

We have three, maybe four prospects who have a shot at being ready by 2027 - Mukhamadullin, Thompson, Dickinson, Cagnoni, and I suppose Thrun or Pohlkamp. Dickinson will likely be a rookie, and the others are not likely playoff-quality top-four guys (not by 27 anyway). We will almost certainly need to add four NHL-quality defensemen, at least three of which are top-four quality. We might get extremely lucky and have Muk, Dickinson, and perhaps Schaefer hit that level by 2027, but then we still need righties (we have Thompson, Liljegren basically is who he is, Pohlkamp would have to hit immediately, and then we have lottery tickets).

I'm fine with penciling in Askarov as a starter in 2027, and goalies are weird, so yes, maybe he is Vezina-quality immediately.

That still means we need to acquire a half-dozen forwards of various qualities, and three-four good defensemen, preferably without expending our 1sts this year or next, and have a sizable number of our prospects hit immediately. That's an extremely tall order, where basically everything works out instantly.

 

[Hodge]

2OA for Noah Dobson?????????????????? hahhaha holy f***.

Look at the players who will be available at that pick. Hagens is coasting on preseason/D-1 hype that he simply has not delivered on. Martone also looks like far less of a sure thing than he did before the season. So it comes down to how confident you are that Michael Misa will not only be a more valuable player than a 25 year old top pairing RHD who scored 70 points on the Islanders but that he will be so much more valuable than Dobson that he makes up for the fact that Dobson fills a much more glaring need on the Sharks. If we can acquire Dobson without moving that pick, even better.

 

[Barrie22]

Lets be like the penguins who only had crosby and nobody else.

When in reality they had drafted basically the entire top 9 forwards, top defensemen, and top goalie.

2003 drafted marc andre fleury.
2004 drafted malkin, tyler kennedy, alex goligoski.
2005 drafted crosby, letang.
2006 drafted jordan stall

 

[Jargon]

I agree with Hodge on the basic premise of — we need to not be precious with prospects and picks and aggressively move them to fix our glaring holes: defense.

That said, I think you’re really undervaluing a Misa/Hagens/Martone pick. Maybe there’s a conversation to be had about that pick for Dobson ++? I’m just not sure I buy that Dobson is that guy. As Jux pointed out, why are the Islanders interested in trading a top pairing RD defenseman who is 25? There are some red flags there.

I’d love to get him but I think I’d probably keep the pick unless our scouting department really thinks Dobson is a future #1 and dislikes anyone not named Schaefer.

 

[Hodge]

Lets be like the penguins who only had crosby and nobody else.

When in reality they had drafted basically the entire top 9 forwards, top defensemen, and top goalie.

2003 drafted marc andre fleury.
2004 drafted malkin, tyler kennedy, alex goligoski.
2005 drafted crosby, letang.
2006 drafted jordan stall

There are no hard and fast rules on how to build a contender. Florida just won with a team they mostly traded for, signed or claimed on waivers. Vegas bought their entire team with draft picks and cap space. I'm not saying the Sharks should follow those strategies either but it's just about using the value you accrue by being one of the worst teams in the league (or being birthed by an insanely favorable expansion process) as efficiently as possible.

 

[Barrie22]

There are no hard and fast rules on how to build a contender. Florida just won with a team they mostly traded for, signed or claimed on waivers. Vegas bought their entire team with draft picks and cap space. I'm not saying the Sharks should follow those strategies either but it's just about using the value you accrue by being one of the worst teams in the league (or being birthed by an insanely favorable expansion process) as efficiently as possible.

Not disagreeing, just adding more context to the one that said we need to follow the penguins route and be a cup winner by year 3 of Celebrini's career(as the penguins did).

But following the penguins route means we need another 4 players to be drafted (hit potential) and to be a huge part of the core.

 

[Hodge]

I agree with Hodge on the basic premise of — we need to not be precious with prospects and picks and aggressively move them to fix our glaring holes: defense.

That said, I think you’re really undervaluing a Misa/Hagens/Martone pick. Maybe there’s a conversation to be had about that pick for Dobson ++? I’m just not sure I buy that Dobson is that guy. As Jux pointed out, why are the Islanders interested in trading a top pairing RD defenseman who is 25? There are some red flags there.

I’d love to get him but I think I’d probably keep the pick unless our scouting department really thinks Dobson is a future #1 and dislikes anyone not named Schaefer.

We're all assuming the Islanders want to move on from Dobson but what if he's the one who wants out for whatever reason (doesn't get along with Roy, Isles system stifling his production in a contract year, etc.)? Changing his agent could be about contract negotiations or it could be to force a trade. Obviously the Sharks need to do their due diligence primarily to figure out if he's even willing to sign here and on what terms.

I kind of like the simplicity of 2OA (or 3OA/4OA) for Dobson. We get to keep all of our young players, all of our prospects and all our other picks while adding Noah Dobson. It's probably too good of an offer for the Islanders to turn down but I still think it's better for the Sharks than one involving Eklund or Dickinson plus other picks. If we somehow drop to 5th overall I think this is a no brainer.

 

[Jargon]

We're all assuming the Islanders want to move on from Dobson but what if he's the one who wants out for whatever reason (doesn't get along with Roy, Isles system stifling his production in a contract year, etc.)? Changing his agent could be about contract negotiations or it could be to force a trade. Obviously the Sharks need to do their due diligence primarily to figure out if he's even willing to sign here and on what terms.

I kind of like the simplicity of 2OA (or 3OA/4OA) for Dobson. We get to keep all of our young players, all of our prospects and all our other picks while adding Noah Dobson. It's probably too good of an offer for the Islanders to turn down but I still think it's better for the Sharks than one involving Eklund or Dickinson plus other picks. If we somehow drop to 5th overall I think this is a no brainer.

I wouldn’t hate it if we dropped out of the top 4 (even though we could then have Eklund squared). I’d maybe ask for Dobson + a 2nd or something. But obviously only if Grier and co. think the 70 pt season wasn’t a one-off, no-defense-played kind of season for him.

 

[one2gamble]

Look at the players who will be available at that pick. Hagens is coasting on preseason/D-1 hype that he simply has not delivered on. Martone also looks like far less of a sure thing than he did before the season. So it comes down to how confident you are that Michael Misa will not only be a more valuable player than a 25 year old top pairing RHD who scored 70 points on the Islanders but that he will be so much more valuable than Dobson that he makes up for the fact that Dobson fills a much more glaring need on the Sharks. If we can acquire Dobson without moving that pick, even better.

The "top pairing" dman who's team is shopping.....

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

Look at the players who will be available at that pick. Hagens is coasting on preseason/D-1 hype that he simply has not delivered on. Martone also looks like far less of a sure thing than he did before the season. So it comes down to how confident you are that Michael Misa will not only be a more valuable player than a 25 year old top pairing RHD who scored 70 points on the Islanders but that he will be so much more valuable than Dobson that he makes up for the fact that Dobson fills a much more glaring need on the Sharks. If we can acquire Dobson without moving that pick, even better.

This whole “scored 70 points” thing needs to stop. Dobson was 7th in scoring for defensemen. Erik Gustafsson, who you (rightfully) trashed the other day, finished 6th in D scoring in 2018-2019. Would it be a good idea for us to target him if he had just done that? No, because it was a fluke, points aren’t a good measure of defenseman value anyway (as you accurately remind us whenever Karlsson comes up), and Gustafsson has defensive woes. Funny enough, all these things apply to Dobson too, albeit less so.

At best, he’s a #2D with many warts and some room to grow. There’s no guarantee he is even that. But even if he is, no way in hell do you trade Michael Misa - who has a legit chance at being a franchise player - for Dobson. That could very quickly turn into the next Spezza for Yashin.

I actually am not against the idea of targeting young players and being aggressive but you are grossly overrating Dobson based on one fluke number that doesn’t really mean all that much any more.

 

[Hodge]

This whole “scored 70 points” thing needs to stop. Dobson was 7th in scoring for defensemen. Erik Gustafsson, who you (rightfully) trashed the other day, finished 6th in D scoring in 2018-2019. Would it be a good idea for us to target him if he had just done that? No, because it was a fluke, points aren’t a good measure of defenseman value anyway (as you accurately remind us whenever Karlsson comes up), and Gustafsson has defensive woes. Funny enough, all these things apply to Dobson too, albeit less so.

At best, he’s a #2D with many warts and some room to grow. There’s no guarantee he is even that. But even if he is, no way in hell do you trade Michael Misa - who has a legit chance at being a franchise player - for Dobson. That could very quickly turn into the next Spezza for Yashin.

I actually am not against the idea of targeting young players and being aggressive but you are grossly overrating Dobson based on one fluke number that doesn’t really mean all that much any more.

Dobson is prime Vlasic defensively compared to Gustafsson and Karlsson. His 70 point season on a notoriously low-scoring team doesn't mean much in and of itself but it's a reflection of Dobson's excellence as a puck mover which I thought everyone agreed was the biggest weakness of our defense corps.

Misa seems like more of a well-rounded player than one with any franchise level tools but maybe I'm underrating him.

 

[Star Platinum]

Let me be clear: The goal should be to make the playoffs in 2026-2027, no excuses. That means a significant improvement next year.

You can set any goal you like, but you can't make Dickinson and whoever this year's pick is mature and develop on your timetable just cause you're impatient. If they want to make the playoffs that quickly, they need to find a way to get some better vets on this team next year. If you think Celebrini and Smith are gonna be carrying this team by themselves two years from now to the playoffs without a lot of better veteran help, you're being unrealistic.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Dobson is prime Vlasic defensively compared to Gustafsson and Karlsson. His 70 point season on a notoriously low-scoring team doesn't mean much in and of itself but it's a reflection of Dobson's excellence as a puck mover which I thought everyone agreed was the biggest weakness of our defense corps.

Misa seems like more of a well-rounded player than one with any franchise level tools but maybe I'm underrating him.

I think it is the biggest weakness of the team overall. Doesn't mean that Dobson is worth the pick because he isn't. If they can't structure a deal for Dobson without the top pick, they should just look elsewhere to fill the spot.

 

[jMoneyBrah]

My concern is that Celebrini's prime/peak might start very soon. You want to maximize that window.

Bro, he’s the youngest player in the league. There’s a lot of runway before the team is at risk of missing his competitive window.

 

[tahoesharksfan]

I agree with Hodge

As I’ve prescribed here many times in the past: lay down for a bit, it’ll pass!

 

[Mr Fahrenheit]

I have one name, one saviour = Chernyshov

The sun-burn god

 

[OrrNumber4]

You can set any goal you like, but you can't make Dickinson and whoever this year's pick is mature and develop on your timetable just cause you're impatient. If they want to make the playoffs that quickly, they need to find a way to get some better vets on this team next year. If you think Celebrini and Smith are gonna be carrying this team by themselves two years from now to the playoffs without a lot of better veteran help, you're being unrealistic.

Yes, my point exactly. The Sharks were never going to be completely home-grown; next year they need to bring in more veteran help. The Sharks need to get a guy like Toffoli for the defense; a strong top-4 defenseman who can handle top-pairing minutes. They also should look at trading many of the assets they have to get a top young defenseman who could help the team right away.

For example, if Noah Dobson becomes available for Musty, the Dallas first, and maybe some other trivial assets...don't you say yes?

 

[Lebanezer]

I agree with Hodge on the basic premise of — we need to not be precious with prospects and picks and aggressively move them to fix our glaring holes: defense.

That said, I think you’re really undervaluing a Misa/Hagens/Martone pick. Maybe there’s a conversation to be had about that pick for Dobson ++? I’m just not sure I buy that Dobson is that guy. As Jux pointed out, why are the Islanders interested in trading a top pairing RD defenseman who is 25? There are some red flags there.

I’d love to get him but I think I’d probably keep the pick unless our scouting department really thinks Dobson is a future #1 and dislikes anyone not named Schaefer.

I don't think people are being precious with prospects, they're against paying a prohibitive cost for a single player when the team needs close to a dozen players. In 2 years, the Sharks will still be pretty bad. At that time, more of the roster will be made up of the current group of prospects, while still accruing other good prospects in the next 2 drafts plus whatever assets are accrued by trading vets like Kunin and Wennberg. Getting rid of 3 to 4 of them now only sets the rebuild back. The current focus should be getting at a minimum 5 NHL players out of Chernyshov, Musty, Halttunen, Cagnoni, Dickinson, Sahlin Wallenius, Svoboda, Pohlkamp, Bystedt, Lund etc. plus the picks in the upcoming draft. When they're starting to knock on the door of the playoffs and they have an up and coming team, then they can start moving out prospects and picks because at that time they'll only need to address 1 or 2 needs, not 10.