Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Lebanezer]

Some absolutely wild takes in here regarding when professional athletes peak and when the Sharks will/should go all in to compete for a Cup.

Most humans don’t reach physical prime until 22+ unless you are a genetic freak like LeBron James.

There is so much work to be done building this roster, and I hope management is patient when it comes to team building.

LeBron is on steroids.

 

[spintops]

You were also willing to trade a mid 1st round pick for noted AHLer Jesse Puljuarvi...


What do you mean? This is clearly the face of a guy that absolutely hates it here.

"#11 picks rarely hit so it's better to trade the pick for a established NHLer -> our #11 pick is more valuable then the #2 pick in this upcoming draft"

 

[Hodge]

Hanifin is a better player than Dobson and you just said you wouldn't consider a Hanifin type (Dickinson) as a core piece. We need to get over this Dobson is elite stuff because he's just not. He's a solid player that will not be a #1 on a team that has real aspirations of winning anything.

Hanifin is not a better player than Dobson. Regardless I didn't claim Dobson is a guaranteed core piece either but he's good enough and young enough that he could still develop into one. RH vs. LH shot also matters a lot and justifies putting a premium on Dobson over Hanifin/Dickinson.

 

[Hodge]

"#11 picks rarely hit so it's better to trade the pick for a established NHLer -> our #11 pick is more valuable then the #2 pick in this upcoming draft"

Key word rarely. Teams rarely do stupid shit like drafting Catton, Yakemchuk and Parekh in the top 10 over Sam Dickinson. Preferring Dickinson to the forwards in this draft class has way more to do with our organizational need for defense over forwards and this being an underwhelming class in general.

The Puljujarvi proposal was also in the immediate aftermath of the Sharks extending Hertl and Joe Will telling the media he wanted to extend Meier next. Completely different context than suggesting we trade 11th overall in 2024 for immediate help when there was absolutely nothing on the roster, nobody knew how good Celebrini would be right away and we didn't have Askarov.

 

[Barrie22]

Penguins got Crosby in 2006 and were Cup Champions in 09. It's perfectly realistic to expect us to be a playoff team by next year and Cup Favorites by Celebrini's third year.

Ok so smith needs to turn into a generational center also at the exact same time as celebrini.

As of today, dickinson needs to turn into a norris level defensemen, askarov needs to be a vezina calibre goalie next year. And someone like Bystedt has to turn into a selke level 3rd line center that can produce like a 2nd line center. Since that penguins team drafted all of that in a 3 or 4 year span of drafts.

 

[spintops]

Key word rarely. Teams rarely do stupid shit like drafting Catton, Yakemchuk and Parekh in the top 10 over Sam Dickinson. Preferring Dickinson to the forwards in this draft class has way more to do with our organizational need for defense over forwards and this being an underwhelming class in general.

The Puljujarvi proposal was also in the immediate aftermath of the Sharks extending Hertl and Joe Will telling the media he wanted to extend Meier next. Completely different context than suggesting we trade 11th overall in 2024 for immediate help when there was absolutely nothing on the roster, nobody knew how good Celebrini would be right away and we didn't have Askarov.

I see you disagree with people who actually study these prospects because historical data suggests they won't pan out, etc. But your personal opinion of these kids you didn't watch makes him different #11, those stats don't matter this time. I understand now lol

 

[Hodge]

I see you disagree with people who actually study these prospects because historical data suggests they won't pan out, etc. But your personal opinion of these kids you didn't watch makes him different #11, those stats don't matter this time. I understand now lol

Do the NHL scouts Bob McKenzie surveyed who ranked Dickinson 6th in their final 2024 rankings not study these prospects?

 

[Shark Finn]

My concern is that Celebrini's prime/peak might start very soon. You want to maximize that window.

Damn. And we didn't even win a Cup. Tear it down.

 

[spintops]

Do the NHL scouts Bob McKenzie surveyed who ranked Dickinson 6th in their final 2024 rankings not study these prospects?

I didn't think you put much stock into those since they rank Zeev Buium #7.

 

[Hodge]

I didn't think you put much stock into those since they rank Zeev Buium #7.

So lower than Dickinson then?

We also have almost another full season of performance from Dickinson that suggests he is more likely to be one of the 11th overall picks that makes it. This is who I prefer to Misa/Martone/Hagens in a system with no other defense prospects worth a damn, not a future unknown draft pick.

 

[ThePlanet]

"#11 picks rarely hit so it's better to trade the pick for a established NHLer -> our #11 pick is more valuable then the #2 pick in this upcoming draft"

Both of the assertions you've made here are simply untrue.
Draft picks 10 through 20, though less predictable because of question marks, pan out all the time. There's a high risk in trading off young assets this early in the rebuild. Prospects need time to improve their game, which also increases their trade value later on.
Additionally, if the number 11 pick was worth more than the number two pick in the upcoming draft, why didn't we trade it to someone like Chicago for their upcoming first round pick?

Slow and steady. Don't pull in ottawa.

 

[spintops]

So lower than Dickinson then?

We also have almost another full season of performance from Dickinson that suggests he is more likely to be one of the 11th overall picks that makes it. This is who I prefer to Misa/Martone/Hagens in a system with no other defense prospects worth a damn, not a future unknown draft pick.

"No. 6 is 6-foot-3, 203-pound London Knight defenceman Sam Dickinson. A marvelous skater and puck mover, Dickinson was ranked as high as No. 5 and as low as No. 16, but eight of 10 scouts had him in their Top 10.

No. 7 is Denver University’s Zeev Buium. The highly skilled 6-foot, 186-pound Pioneer rearguard was ranked as high as No. 6 and no lower than No. 11, with nine of 10 scouts slotting him in their Top 10."

Yeah, looks like the scouts had it as a huge gap.

Both of the assertions you've made here are simply untrue.
Draft picks 10 through 20, though less predictable because of question marks, pan out all the time. There's a high risk in trading off young assets this early in the rebuild. Prospects need time to improve their game, which also increases their trade value later on.
Additionally, if the number 11 pick was worth more than the number two pick in the upcoming draft, why didn't we trade it to someone like Chicago for their upcoming first round pick?

Slow and steady. Don't pull in ottawa.

Those weren't my words. It's Hodge back when he was claiming we should trade the 2022 #11 pick for Jesse Puljuajrvi which everyone knew was a terrible idea. And now he's just moving the goalposts over and over.

 

[Hodge]

"No. 6 is 6-foot-3, 203-pound London Knight defenceman Sam Dickinson. A marvelous skater and puck mover, Dickinson was ranked as high as No. 5 and as low as No. 16, but eight of 10 scouts had him in their Top 10.

No. 7 is Denver University’s Zeev Buium. The highly skilled 6-foot, 186-pound Pioneer rearguard was ranked as high as No. 6 and no lower than No. 11, with nine of 10 scouts slotting him in their Top 10."

Yeah, looks like the scouts had it as a huge gap.

Who said anything about a "huge gap"? Also is 6 a bigger or smaller number than 7?

Dickinson falling in the draft and looking on track to be on the higher end of prospects typically picked in the 11th overall range doesn't change the underlying reality that it's almost impossible to get a star in this range of the draft and you're more likely to end up with a depth player or outright bust than even a middle six/pairing guy. Just look at the players drafted 10th-15th overall over the past 15 years or so. For every Rantanen or Larkin there are five Slater Koekkoeks, Tyson Josts, Logan Browns and Cal Footes.

 

[hockeyball]

Who said anything about a "huge gap"? Also is 6 a bigger or smaller number than 7?

Dickinson falling in the draft and looking on track to be on the higher end of prospects typically picked in the 11th overall range doesn't change the underlying reality that it's almost impossible to get a star in this range of the draft and you're more likely to end up with a depth player or outright bust than even a middle six/pairing guy. Just look at the players drafted 10th-15th overall over the past 15 years or so. For every Rantanen or Larkin there are five Slater Koekkoeks, Tyson Josts, Logan Browns and Cal Footes.

Man...

I know the world sucks right now... but seriously dude, who hurt you?

 

[Hodge]

Man...

I know the world sucks right now... but seriously dude, who hurt you?

Which part do you disagree with?

If you're rebuilding from scratch it makes sense to hold onto a 10th-15th overall pick hoping for the ~5% chance it turns into a real difference-maker and ~20% chance it turns into a top six or top pairing player. Otherwise, you should jump at the chance to trade the pick for a young established NHLer.

 

[Patty Ice]

Maybe but Dobson is just as likely to be a core piece, doesn't have the downside risk of ending up a middle of the lineup player and fills our biggest need unlike the forwards. Not that the Isles would necessarily even trade him for that pick but maybe Lou finally gets canned and the new GM decides to rebuild.

I was onboard with your take on what's a core player but this confuses me. What he is at the NHL level doesn't track to what you explained a core player to be.

He's very good but I don't think he'd be my choice to build a team around.

 

[Hodge]

I was onboard with your take on what's a core player but this confuses me. What he is at the NHL level doesn't track to what you explained a core player to be.

He's very good but I don't think he'd be my choice to build a team around.

You don't think Dobson can develop into a legit #1 defenseman? I agree it's not likely, and we shouldn't acquire him based on that expectation, but he just turned 25, has elite offensive ability and is solid enough defensively to play top pairing minutes with positive results. It's not unheard of for defensemen to improve defensively in their mid to late 20s. Even Alex Pietrangelo, who Dobson was often compared to as a prospect, was a borderline offenseman at Dobson's age.

It comes down to how you weigh Misa/Martone/Hagens' chances of developing into a core player (however you define it) vs. Dobson's chances. If these are at all close then you obviously go with the player who doesn't have the downside risk of ending up a middle six winger. At worst, Dobson is a top pairing RHD and should remain at that level for the entirety of his next contract.

 

[ThePlanet]

Those weren't my words. It's Hodge back when he was claiming we should trade the 2022 #11 pick for Jesse Puljuajrvi which everyone knew was a terrible idea. And now he's just moving the goalposts over and over.

Apologies. The ignore button backfired on me in this instance.