Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[pappaf2]

So Dobson has switched agents to McDavids/Mathews agent. One would think that move could bring a quick resolution either in a resigning or a trade.

 

[STL Shark]

Forwards tend to peak from 21-24, at least in terms of statistical output. Some peak a little earlier, some a little later. Crosby was 19 during his most productive season, Ovechkin scored 65 when he was 22, Malkin's career year and monster playoff run was at 22.

And yet all of those players were at their overall best when they were in their late 20's and won Cups at age 28-32. 21-24 year old Nathan Mackinnon isn't better than Nathan Mackinnon now.

I'd argue that players in that 21-24 range might produce more points at that age because they still get sheltered treatment as opposed to being complete players that are responsible for doing everything. So while their scoring might decrease, they're typically far and away better hockey players in their age 26-32 years.

It's also next to impossible to judge the Crosby's of the world on points as when they came into the league, league average save percentage was .901 then ballooned to .915 in the mid 2010's and has now cratered back to .902 now. League leaders in points during their true primes were barely sniffing a PPG compared to now where the elites are closer to 1.8 PPG.

 

[Hodge]

So Dobson has switched agents to McDavids/Mathews agent. One would think that move could bring a quick resolution either in a resigning or a trade.

Maybe he's angling for a short term contract that gets him to UFA at 28-29 years old just as the cap explodes like Matthews? That would explain why the Islanders want to move him.

 

[Hodge]

And yet all of those players were at their overall best when they were in their late 20's and won Cups at age 28-32. 21-24 year old Nathan Mackinnon isn't better than Nathan Mackinnon now.

I'd argue that players in that 21-24 range might produce more points at that age because they still get sheltered treatment as opposed to being complete players that are responsible for doing everything. So while their scoring might decrease, they're typically far and away better hockey players in their age 26-32 years.

It's also next to impossible to judge the Crosby's of the world on points as when they came into the league, league average save percentage was .901 then ballooned to .915 in the mid 2010's and has now cratered back to .902 now. League leaders in points during their true primes were barely sniffing a PPG compared to now where the elites are closer to 1.8 PPG.

I agree, that's why I specified peak as in statistical output. I think improvements in defensive play and overall mental toughness counteract the offensive decline as forwards reach their late 20s. But it's still important to take advantage of Celebrini and Smith's best offensive seasons.

 

[Patty Ice]

Sheng can yell at me for pasting it

Tell him he got money from me for it.

 

[wickedwitch]

My guess is Celebrini will be an elite player for many years even if he isn't at his absolute peak. So they have a while to build a team.

Predicting aging curves is one area that fascinates me from an analytics perspective. Obviously, there's some degree of luck with regards to injury, what else allows a player to age well? I think hockey IQ is key as is a willingness to adapt one's game. So the question is how elite is Celebrini's hockey IQ? I don't think Celebrini's IQ is at Crosby's level, but I don't think that's required either.

 

[Cas]

I agree. The goal should be to have a solid playoff team that could make a run during the last year of Celebrini and Smith’s ELC’s.

Now I don’t think Bystedt will have any impact on that season. Ideally they could aquire an older top 6 C who’s contract expires that season and Bystedt could take over 3C duties when Smith and Celebrini are on their 2nd contracts.

We're not getting a playoff team in 27. We are far too far away for that without several miracles.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Scoring peak =/= overall impact peak.

 

[TheBeard]

We're not getting a playoff team in 27. We are far too far away for that without several miracles.

26-27 or 27-28 because in three years we should absolutely be a playoff team.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Scoring peak =/= overall impact peak.

I agree, that's why I specified peak as in statistical output. I think improvements in defensive play and overall mental toughness counteract the offensive decline as forwards reach their late 20s. But it's still important to take advantage of Celebrini and Smith's best offensive seasons.

This will apply less to a very mature and developed player like Celebrini. Toews's best seasons really were in that 21-23 age range.

I think and hope that Celebrini will have a great career, with a long and effective prime in a San Jose uniform. But the very peak of his play could be coming up very soon...he's already exceptionally mature mentally and psychologically, with great habits and three-zone play. So once he hits his physical peak...

 

[pdxshark]

Pure conjecture but I feel like franchise cornerstones are usually early foundations of a rebuild and so they spend a few years being on top of a large capability gap. As teams build around them they are asked to do less and their peers start carrying more of the load. Not sure why but it really feels like adding a an 80 point forward to a team with an 80 point forward doesn't necessarily mean 160 points between them the next season.

Teams are only going to score so many goals per game, especially ones competing and learning to close out games defensively.

All this to say I don't think production declines are necessarily related to anything physical, just something that happens as rosters improve.

Or it's because they hit peak mental capability in their early 20's and oh god we are going to waste celebrinis best years. We need to get Landon DuPont a fake birth certificate ASAP

 

[gaucholoco3]

When Celebrini peaks is largely irrelevant. Building a championship team in a capped league is all about gaining as much surplus value as possible. Celebrini is likely to be the most valuable player in all of hockey the next two seasons. He will be playing like a $10+ million dollar player making $1 million. That is why if possible without destroying long term cap flexibility it would be wise to be aggressive in building out a competitive roster starting next season.

If Marner wants to re-enter free agency at 29 the Sharks could offer him a 2 year max contract ($18.5 per year) and he would then be able to maximize his earrings in a higher cap structure and get an additional big contract that he wouldn’t get if he signed a 7 year deal this offseason.

Honestly the Sharks could do the same with Rantenen also and they would still have cap space.

I know NHL players don’t want to bet on themselves like this but the Sharks have almost infinite cap space the next two seasons.

 

[SJSharksfan39]

We're not getting a playoff team in 27. We are far too far away for that without several miracles.

We cannot tank next year either. The longer this goes the more Celebrini will start acting like Bedard is acting this year. Got to keep the rookie talent happy.

 

[Juxtaposer]

This will apply less to a very mature and developed player like Celebrini. Toews's best seasons really were in that 21-23 age range.

I think and hope that Celebrini will have a great career, with a long and effective prime in a San Jose uniform. But the very peak of his play could be coming up very soon...he's already exceptionally mature mentally and psychologically, with great habits and three-zone play. So once he hits his physical peak...

Other than Toews, what examples do you have?

 

[Bizz]

We're not getting a playoff team in 27.

Correct. We're gonna be a playoff team in 2026. We'll already have one by then.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

Why are we talking about Celebrini's peak...he is 18 years old. There's no chance we make the playoffs at all in the next 2 years, we're way too far out. Even 3/4 can be a stretch. You have to be realistic.

 

[Bizz]

Penguins got Crosby in 2006 and were Cup Champions in 09. It's perfectly realistic to expect us to be a playoff team by next year and Cup Favorites by Celebrini's third year.

 

[Sharksfan66]

If Marner wants to re-enter free agency at 29 the Sharks could offer him a 2 year max contract ($18.5 per year) and he would then be able to maximize his earrings in a higher cap structure and get an additional big contract that he wouldn’t get if he signed a 7 year deal this offseason.

I sure hope GMMG tries creative stuff like this this offseason.

Lots of people stuck in conventional thinking here seem to be missing the X factor of the rising cap. IMO this is going to change the game more than we think.

Penguins got Crosby in 2006 and were Cup Champions in 09. It's perfectly realistic to expect us to be a playoff team by next year and Cup Favorites by Celebrini's third year.

This is highly optimistic, but I like it.

People will say Pittsburgh was further along when they drafted Sid, but as has been pointed out, Grier basically has unlimited cap space the next 2 years which is an advantage of his own.

All that to say, it’s possible. Probable? Nah, but the Pens example should I hope push Grier to try.

 

[Star Platinum]

Penguins got Crosby in 2006 and were Cup Champions in 09. It's perfectly realistic to expect us to be a playoff team by next year and Cup Favorites by Celebrini's third year.

Maybe if we already had Sergei Gonchar and Ryan Whitney on defense, I might share that expectation. Since we don't, I'll wait to see if we ever do something besides dumpster diving for defensemen or waiting for the young guys to be ready.

 

[Jargon]

Honestly I think Celebrini is probably on the downswing of his career, with the peak being the Vancouver game. We may want to consider a rebuild ASAP.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

Maybe if we already had Sergei Gonchar and Ryan Whitney on defense, I might share that expectation. Since we don't, I'll wait to see if we ever do something besides dumpster diving for defensemen or waiting for the young guys to be ready.

Pittsburgh traded Whitney before they won.

 

[Star Platinum]

Pittsburgh traded Whitney before they won.

He's talking about being in the playoffs next year

 

[timorous me]

Penguins got Crosby in 2006 and were Cup Champions in 09. It's perfectly realistic to expect us to be a playoff team by next year and Cup Favorites by Celebrini's third year.

Pens got Crosby in 2005, not 2006. So you might want to adjust your Sharks timeline by a year, sadly.

 

[Bizz]

Pens got Crosby in 2005, not 2006. So you might want to adjust your Sharks timeline by a year, sadly.

Still made the finals in 08 and were considered Cup favorites that year too.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Other than Toews, what examples do you have?

Not many since few players fit that profile. Brind'Amour and Bergeron come to mind. Barkov and O'Reilly could be solid counterexamples in that they peaked later despite being very well-rounded players.