Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[vortexy]

Chris Johnston of the Athletic, with some high praise for us when he answered a mailbag question from a subscriber:

If you were hired today to be the GM of one team for the next 10 years, which team would you pick? (Keep in mind that you wouldn’t get credit for any championships your team wins in the first couple of years because you didn’t construct the roster.) — Darn it! D.

Man, this is a tough question. And a good one. After much deliberation, I’m choosing to take over the San Jose Sharks because they tick every box you’d want in the early stages of a rebuild. Most importantly they’ve got solid and stable ownership, plus a nice crop of young players and prospects in the pipeline. There’s also a reasonably clear salary cap sheet to operate with and plenty of draft capital stashed in the cupboards. All that said, Mike Grier is the main reason the Sharks are set up so well, so I can’t imagine they’ll be looking for a new GM in San Jose any time soon!

 

[Sharksfan66]

3C is super optimistic for Bystedt at this point. We should be pleasantly surprised if he gets 200 NHL games.

22 points in 38 AHL games in D+3 is pretty weak. Forwards who make the NHL in top-9 scoring roles are usually doing a lot better at that point.

Can you say more about Bystedt beyond his point production?

Because to be clear, I haven’t had a chance to watch Bystedt for myself, but just to engage with your points-based argument

 Bystedt is at .67 PPG in his D+3 season so far. For comparison:

Phillip Danault scored at .36 his D+3 season.

Adam Lowry scored at .52 PPG

Lars Eller at .71 PPG


William Karlsson hadn’t even made the jump to NA full time yet. By the time he did in his D+4 season, he scored at .46 PPG in the AHL.

Gosh, even Cirelli was only at .73 PPG his D+3 year.

So I look at his production and think he sure looks like he's right on track to be a really solid 3C at this level. But I assume there are things I would be seeing if I was watching him play beyond the points? Could you tell us about that?

 

[one2gamble]

Most importantly they’ve got solid and stable ownership

our owner is like 90, its stable for a few more moments

 

[TheBeard]

We are worse defensively this year then we were last year at this point of the season.

We are better offensively, and every one knows that Ferraro especially does not affect that aspect of the game.

We are not worse defensively, we just no longer have decent goaltending.

 

[Star Platinum]

Based on what?

As a point of comparison, Ty Dellandrea in his D+4 season scored 50 points in 68 games in the AHL. He then scored 28 points in 82 games with Dallas the following year. On the Sharks with untalented teammates on mostly the bottom 6 lines, he's scored 6 points in 43 games.

Bystedt has scored 22 points in 38 games for the Barracuda in his D+3 season and first full season in the AHL. Even if he has a large increase in scoring next year in the AHL, he's not tracking to be much of an impact player at the NHL level. I can't speak to his off-puck and defensive capabilities, but he doesn't look to be someone to be getting that excited about. If he ends up being a cheap capable checking center, that's probably a win for him at this point.

 

[Cas]

Can you say more about Bystedt beyond his point production?

Because to be clear, I haven’t had a chance to watch Bystedt for myself, but just to engage with your points-based argument

 Bystedt is at .67 PPG in his D+3 season so far. For comparison:

Phillip Danault scored at .36 his D+3 season.

Adam Lowry scored at .52 PPG

Lars Eller at .71 PPG


William Karlsson hadn’t even made the jump to NA full time yet. By the time he did in his D+4 season, he scored at .46 PPG in the AHL.

Gosh, even Cirelli was only at .73 PPG his D+3 year.

So I look at his production and think he sure looks like he's right on track to be a really solid 3C at this level. But I assume there are things I would be seeing if I was watching him play beyond the points? Could you tell us about that?

I think you'd actually have to be looking at all centers' scoring at similar levels in their D+3 seasons in the AHL, see what percentage of those succeeded, and then look at what they have in common, rather than looking at a selection of successful NHL centers and seeing how they scored.

I would guess that very few centers scoring at a .67 PPG pace in the AHL in their D+3 season turn into NHL regulars, but I don't have a huge data set available. I would also guess that, out of that set, big centers with high draft pedigree, like Bystedt, are more likely to succeed than smaller centers drafted in later rounds (because lower draft picks are probably because those players did not appear to have as many potentially NHL-quality tools).

I was always under the impression that Bystedt's realistic ceiling was decent 3C, and that the most likely outcomes were bust (not an NHL regular on a good team), followed by bottom six forward (so more realistically a 4C). If we get a 3C, like a Wennberg, great; if we get a 4C, like a Sturm, or bottom six faceoff-capable winger, like a Goodrow, then we've basically met expectations.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

Can you say more about Bystedt beyond his point production?

Because to be clear, I haven’t had a chance to watch Bystedt for myself, but just to engage with your points-based argument

 Bystedt is at .67 PPG in his D+3 season so far. For comparison:

Phillip Danault scored at .36 his D+3 season.

Adam Lowry scored at .52 PPG

Lars Eller at .71 PPG


William Karlsson hadn’t even made the jump to NA full time yet. By the time he did in his D+4 season, he scored at .46 PPG in the AHL.

Gosh, even Cirelli was only at .73 PPG his D+3 year.

So I look at his production and think he sure looks like he's right on track to be a really solid 3C at this level. But I assume there are things I would be seeing if I was watching him play beyond the points? Could you tell us about that?

Cas said it better than I could; I’ll just add that this is a great example of selection bias.

If you know of a guy who scored like this, you probably know of him because he made it. You don’t know all the guys who scored like this and didn’t make it, precisely because they didn’t make it. But there are actually a lot more of them.

I’m not pretending I’ve been watching him play, so there’s no need to be condescending on that front. But the production is very discouraging. It’s not a complete death sentence, as your counterexamples show, but it is absolutely dearth enough that it would be wise to just trade him and Thrun for two (!!!) late 1st round picks.

 

[Hodge]

Danault, Lowry and Eller (in his prime) are/were also elite defensive Cs and that's never been Bystedt's game. Maybe he can develop into one, he has the size and speed to do it, but right now he's more of a puck-carrying transition forward with good hands in front of the net.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

And so can every other team. If we'd claimed him and given him the minutes he deserves, he probably re-signs.

Low-key feeling like passing on Fabbro is Grier's worst move this season other than claiming [redacted].

Maybe but maybe he sees how difficult the losing has been for some guys here and still looks for a better opportunity. Him finding his game elsewhere before hitting free agency is probably better for our odds of having him play here long term.

If we were at the same goal differential at this point with the roster improvement as we were last year it would have been a disaster, so yeah it could have been worse.

It still would be last and Ferraro still is replaceable through it all.

 

[Sharksfan66]

Cas said it better than I could; I’ll just add that this is a great example of selection bias.

If you know of a guy who scored like this, you probably know of him because he made it. You don’t know all the guys who scored like this and didn’t make it, precisely because they didn’t make it. But there are actually a lot more of them.

I’m not pretending I’ve been watching him play, so there’s no need to be condescending on that front. But the production is very discouraging. It’s not a complete death sentence, as your counterexamples show, but it is absolutely dearth enough that it would be wise to just trade him and Thrun for two (!!!) late 1st round picks.

No condescension intended. I thought you were one of the folks out of here who made hockey fandom into a career, so I figured you had watched him, but I may be confusing you with someone else.

Anyway, I personally find yours & @Cas ’ analysis underwhelming. I went through and looked up every true 3C I could think of (read: not just playing on the 3rd line today, a la Jordan Stall or Kunin) and I couldn’t find one example that scored and a significantly higher rate in their D+3 season. I get what you were saying about selection bias, but in the absence of data, it doesn’t do much to move the conversation forward. Can you think of any true 3Cs in the league today who scored at a significantly higher rate in their D+3 year? Or maybe some recent centers who scored at a similar rate in their D+3 season and busted? (Again, not trying to be antagonistic here, just trying to understand where you’re coming from. We’re all Sharks fans here )

 

[Barrie22]

We are not worse defensively, we just no longer have decent goaltending.

.899, 3.45
.895, 3.45

Vs

.911, 3.00
.896, 3.10
.876, 4.01
.875, 4.01

We have had better goaltending for 19 of 57 games.

 

[Cas]

No condescension intended. I thought you were one of the folks out of here who made hockey fandom into a career, so I figured you had watched him, but I may be confusing you with someone else.

Anyway, I personally find yours & @Cas ’ analysis underwhelming. I went through and looked up every true 3C I could think of (read: not just playing on the 3rd line today, a la Jordan Stall or Kunin) and I couldn’t find one example that scored and a significantly higher rate in their D+3 season. I get what you were saying about selection bias, but in the absence of data, it doesn’t do much to move the conversation forward. Can you think of any true 3Cs in the league today who scored at a significantly higher rate in their D+3 year? Or maybe some recent centers who scored at a similar rate in their D+3 season and busted? (Again, not trying to be antagonistic here, just trying to understand where you’re coming from. We’re all Sharks fans here )

I'm not analyzing, I was more summarizing someone else's thoughts.

I do think you can't just look at the players who succeeded - you have to look at the entire sample, in this case of D+3 centers playing in the AHL (and maybe the other top-level foreign pro leagues), see who was scoring at what rates, and see how scoring at various rates translated into success in the NHL. Right now, you're working backwards and assuming that Bystedt will succeed (that may not be how you are thinking about this, but that is exactly what your math works out to in practice).

The best way to do this is probably to take everyone in the AHL from, say, 2012-2022, grab all of the centers in their D+3 season, sort them by scoring rate (normalized to a common reference frame), find the ones in the 0.50-0.75 range, and see how many succeeded.

 

[Sharksfan66]

Danault, Lowry and Eller (in his prime) are/were also elite defensive Cs and that's never been Bystedt's game. Maybe he can develop into one, he has the size and speed to do it, but right now he's more of a puck-carrying transition forward with good hands in front of the net.

I thought the idea was he seemed to have the tools necessary to develop a solid defensive game at the pro level, the question was if his offense could translate. Kind of a Sturm as a floor and an Eller as a ceiling. Sounds like that may not be the case?

 

[OrrNumber4]

Anyway, I personally find yours & @Cas ’ analysis underwhelming. I went through and looked up every true 3C I could think of (read: not just playing on the 3rd line today, a la Jordan Stall or Kunin) and I couldn’t find one example that scored and a significantly higher rate in their D+3 season. I get what you were saying about selection bias, but in the absence of data, it doesn’t do much to move the conversation forward. Can you think of any true 3Cs in the league today who scored at a significantly higher rate in their D+3 year? Or maybe some recent centers who scored at a similar rate in their D+3 season and busted? (Again, not trying to be antagonistic here, just trying to understand where you’re coming from. We’re all Sharks fans here )

The only Sharks forward draftees I can think of who had underwhelming D+3 seasons outside of the NHL, but turned into decent talent are Clowe and Coyle. If only Filip changed his surname to Cyste...

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

No condescension intended. I thought you were one of the folks out of here who made hockey fandom into a career, so I figured you had watched him, but I may be confusing you with someone else.

Anyway, I personally find yours & @Cas ’ analysis underwhelming. I went through and looked up every true 3C I could think of (read: not just playing on the 3rd line today, a la Jordan Stall or Kunin) and I couldn’t find one example that scored and a significantly higher rate in their D+3 season. I get what you were saying about selection bias, but in the absence of data, it doesn’t do much to move the conversation forward. Can you think of any true 3Cs in the league today who scored at a significantly higher rate in their D+3 year? Or maybe some recent centers who scored at a similar rate in their D+3 season and busted? (Again, not trying to be antagonistic here, just trying to understand where you’re coming from. We’re all Sharks fans here )

My apologies if I misread you as antagonistic. I'd call my work in hockey more of a side hustle than a career, but more importantly, the side hustle is based on numbers rather than video (which I always acknowledge). Here was Bystedt's prospect card, built using my data, at the start of this season:

My model has 1 AHL point worth 0.389 NHL points, so Bystedt's NHLe (82-game NHL equivalent scoring rate) is currently about 18.5 this year; a very marginal improvement on last year. When I update the probabilities at the end of the season, his NHLer probability will likely drop considerably from the 64% it was here. My model is perhaps a bit too high on the SHL and a bit too low on the AHL, so one could argue that this season is at least an improvement on last year if not his D+1, but it's still discouraging. And on the flip side of the AHL/SHL point, my model being higher on the SHL is perhaps inflating Bystedt's numbers already. One could argue he should have been under 50% to play 200 NHL games even going into this year.

Regarding other 3Cs around the league, it seems you overlooked our very own Alex Wennberg? He scored 40 points in 69 games in the NHL in his D+3 season. The same exact rate Bystedt is scoring at in the AHL. Here are some other guys who I would classify as 3Cs right now who scored substantially better in their D+3:

Ryan McLeod - 1 PPG AHL
Ryan Strome - 0.49 PPG NHL
Morgan Geekie - 0.76 PPG AHL
Jack Roslovic - 1.09 PPG AHL and 0.45 PPG NHL
Dvorak - 0.42 PPG NHL
Connor Zary - 0.81 PPG AHL
Anton Lundell - 0.45 PPG NHL (and was 0.68 PPG NHL in D+2)
JG Pageau - 0.96 PPG AHL
Max Domi - 0.64 PPG NHL
Filip Chytil - 0.38 PPG NHL
Vlad Namestnikov - 0.86 PPG AHL

One thing I will acknowledge is that the development path to 3C seems very unpredictable. Unlike 1C or even 2W, many guys come out of nowhere to make it. But again, as Cas mentions, a better way to do this would be to look at all the guys who fit within a reasonably defined profile, and see what percentage of them made it. (IMO, an even better way to do it is just to look at a model, and we will see how mine and others look at the end of the year).

 

[TheBeard]

Maybe but maybe he sees how difficult the losing has been for some guys here and still looks for a better opportunity. Him finding his game elsewhere before hitting free agency is probably better for our odds of having him play here long term.

It still would be last and Ferraro still is replaceable through it all.

100% he's replaceable, but considering all of them are replaceable he's not the first one that needs to be.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

Okay, I realize I'm overdoing this, and apologize for that, but here's 98 forwards who played exclusively in the AHL in their D+3 year between 2010 and 2021 and scored between 0.5 and 0.75 PPG. (The number on the far right is NHLe, which is 0.389 * 82 * AHL PPG, so we get values between 16 and 24). I pulled this super quick so please correct me if you can find an error but I believe this is accurate.

Spoiler: List of Players

Player Teams Season NHLe
Tobias Rieder Portland Pirates 2014 23.95
Logan Brown Belleville Senators 2019 23.95
Sonny Milano Cleveland Monsters 2017 23.82
Tanner Pearson Manchester Monarchs 2013 23.45
Brendan Leipsic totals 2015 23.3
Vladislav Kamenev Milwaukee Admirals 2017 23.27
Jason Dickinson Texas Stars 2016 23.18
Seth Griffith Providence Bruins 2014 23.14
Kole Lind Utica Comets 2020 23.03
Rudolfs Balcers San Jose Barracuda 2018 22.88
Yegor Sokolov Belleville Senators 2021 22.81
German Rubtsov Lehigh Valley Phantoms 2019 22.81
Brett Ritchie Texas Stars 2014 22.54
Mark Stone Binghamton Senators 2013 22.47
Tomas Kubalik Springfield Falcons 2011 22.27
Shane Prince Binghamton Senators 2014 22.21
Benoit-Olivier Groulx San Diego Gulls 2021 22.05
Sven Andrighetto Hamilton Bulldogs 2014 21.95
Adam Henrique Albany Devils 2011 21.87
Phil Varone Rochester Americans 2012 21.85
Nino Niederreiter Bridgeport Sound Tigers 2013 21.58
Miikka Salomaki Milwaukee Admirals 2014 21.29
Ty Rattie Chicago Wolves 2014 21.29
Otto Koivula Bridgeport Sound Tigers 2019 21.29
Brandon Kozun Manchester Monarchs 2011 21.29
Taylor Raddysh Syracuse Crunch 2019 20.98
Akil Thomas Ontario Reign 2021 20.76
Matt Puempel Binghamton Senators 2014 20.71
Alex Chmelevski San Jose Barracuda 2020 20.53
Jamie Arniel Providence Bruins 2011 20.47
Richard Panik Norfolk Admirals 2012 20.46
Jeremy Bracco Toronto Marlies 2018 20.44
Morgan Geekie Charlotte Checkers 2019 20.12
Michael Rasmussen Grand Rapids Griffins 2020 20.07
Cedric Paquette Syracuse Crunch 2014 20.07
Klim Kostin San Antonio Rampage 2020 19.96
Aleksi Saarela Charlotte Checkers 2018 19.9
Max Sauve Providence Bruins 2011 19.89
Andrew Mangiapane Stockton Heat 2017 19.84
Nikita Scherbak St. John's IceCaps 2017 19.84
Spencer Machacek Chicago Wolves 2010 19.81
Trey Fix-Wolansky Cleveland Monsters 2020 19.31
Michael Amadio Ontario Reign 2017 19.25
Alex Broadhurst Rockford IceHogs 2014 19.16
Alex Volkov Syracuse Crunch 2018 19.16
Eric Tangradi Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins 2010 19.16
Johan Larsson totals 2013 18.97
Henrik Samuelsson Portland Pirates 2015 18.78
James Wright Norfolk Admirals 2011 18.76
Chris Terry Albany River Rats 2010 18.76
Adam Mascherin Texas Stars 2019 18.73
Zach Hamill Providence Bruins 2010 18.73
Mitchell Stephens Syracuse Crunch 2018 18.7
Matthew Phillips Stockton Heat 2019 18.67
Andreas Athanasiou Grand Rapids Griffins 2015 18.58
Linden Vey Manchester Monarchs 2012 18.56
Jeremy Morin Rockford IceHogs 2012 18.51
Jonathan Dahlen totals 2019 18.49
Paul Byron Portland Pirates 2010 18.49
Jordan Schroeder Chicago Wolves 2012 18.49
Nicolas Deschamps Syracuse Crunch 2011 18.36
Ryan Hartman Rockford IceHogs 2016 18.32
Sammy Blais Chicago Wolves 2017 18.31
Eeli Tolvanen Milwaukee Admirals 2020 18.25
Jc Lipon St. John's IceCaps 2014 18.18
Jordan Knackstedt Providence Bruins 2010 18.11
Shane Bowers Colorado Eagles 2020 17.96
Joe Colborne totals 2011 17.88
Damien Giroux Iowa Wild 2021 17.84
Nick Shore Manchester Monarchs 2014 17.84
Jayce Hawryluk Springfield Thunderbirds 2017 17.67
Colton Sissons Milwaukee Admirals 2015 17.65
Danick Martel Lehigh Valley Phantoms 2016 17.63
Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson Providence Bruins 2018 17.62
Michael Latta Milwaukee Admirals 2012 17.53
Julien Gauthier Charlotte Checkers 2019 17.46
Michael Dal Colle Bridgeport Sound Tigers 2017 17.46
Rasmus Asplund Rochester Americans 2019 17.46
Brandon Gignac Binghamton Devils 2019 17.42
Michael Spacek Manitoba Moose 2018 17.34
Nicolas Roy Charlotte Checkers 2018 17.34
Taylor Beck Milwaukee Admirals 2012 17.26
Max Friberg Norfolk Admirals 2014 17.26
Jerry D'Amigo Toronto Marlies 2012 17.23
William Carrier Rochester Americans 2016 17.11
Dennis Yan Syracuse Crunch 2018 17.08
Scott Glennie Texas Stars 2012 16.88
Jaret Anderson-Dolan Ontario Reign 2020 16.87
Evgeny Dadonov Rochester Americans 2010 16.81
Jordan Weal Manchester Monarchs 2013 16.73
Rourke Chartier San Jose Barracuda 2017 16.68
Connor Bunnaman Lehigh Valley Phantoms 2019 16.48
Aaron Palushaj totals 2010 16.48
Adam Lowry St. John's IceCaps 2014 16.47
Victor Rask Charlotte Checkers 2014 16.39
Nicolas Kerdiles Norfolk Admirals 2015 16.28
Dmytro Timashov Toronto Marlies 2018 16.2
Kyle Beach Rockford IceHogs 2011 16.19

I count about a dozen guys whose player quality at the NHL level was at least 3C. If you're being generous, maybe you can find 20, which puts you at 20/89, or 23%. You can be a little more generous and round up to 25%, what the hell. 1-in-4.

I am not writing him off by any means because there are clearly examples of similar profiles making it. But this is a clear example of the data suggesting we are being overly optimistic about our guy. Most forwards who score at this rate in their D+3 in the AHL do not amount to anything. I still prefer a model that incorporates all other information (DY-1 through D+2 performance, size, etc.) over this sort of analysis, and mine will probably give him better NHLer odds than this analysis does. But a holistic analysis suggests he should clearly be below 50% probability of even playing 200 NHL games at this point. And the reviews I have seen of his performance from Cuda fans have not been that he is doing great things which the numbers don't show.

Again, not writing him off or trashing him. But of course you trade this guy and Henry Thrun for two 1st round picks.

 

[TheBeard]

.899, 3.45
.895, 3.45

Vs

.911, 3.00
.896, 3.10
.876, 4.01
.875, 4.01

We have had better goaltending for 19 of 57 games.

That would mean 38 we had worse.