Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Pinkfloyd]

This could be an absolute disaster. For all the crap he gets here, not having Mario would have made us a worse team than last year.

Maybe but what difference would it actually have made? Both teams with Ferraro getting a heavy workload were and are a complete dumpster fire. And that is in large part due to a very limited defender like Ferraro getting tons of minutes because there isn't anyone better. I'm fine with loading up a top four to allow for developing defensemen to play in the 3rd pairing role while they figure out the NHL but if we want to make efforts towards competing next season, upgrading on Ferraro and/or Walman as your two most-played defensemen is the most influential way to accomplish that.

 

[STL Shark]

Because our development of Bystedt and Thrun hasn’t been successful. Both are on track to bust.

I'd push back on the development of Bystedt being a bust. It would imply that your expectations for a 29th overall pick were unreasonable based on historical precedent if you expected more than a potential 3C from that pick.

Players in that range don't hit at high odds and if they do hit likely take time. Bystedt was a toolsy work in progress that is still tracking to be a potential top 9 player. That might come on the wing at the NHL level rather than center, but for 29th overall that is still a hit to get an NHLer.

Swapping him for another late 1st just pushes the ROI that much further into the future for a developmental prospect that would likely be in the same profile as Bystedt.

 

[Cas]

I believe what JoeThorntonsRooster is saying is that Bystedt is not developing on track to even be a marginal NHL player, let alone a 3C.

 

[Patty Ice]

I believe what JoeThorntonsRooster is saying is that Bystedt is not developing on track to even be a marginal NHL player, let alone a 3C.

Based on what?

 

[TheBeard]

Maybe but what difference would it actually have made? Both teams with Ferraro getting a heavy workload were and are a complete dumpster fire. And that is in large part due to a very limited defender like Ferraro getting tons of minutes because there isn't anyone better. I'm fine with loading up a top four to allow for developing defensemen to play in the 3rd pairing role while they figure out the NHL but if we want to make efforts towards competing next season, upgrading on Ferraro and/or Walman as your two most-played defensemen is the most influential way to accomplish that.

Upgrading from those two and upgrading the positions they play are two very different things. Depending on who is available in the offseason and the late season development of Mukh and/or Thompson I would keep both Walman and Ferraro into next season and even then I would wait and see what other prospects take the next step before moving them. To answer your question, what difference would it have made? That’s like asking what’s the worst that could happen, and the answer is far more than you think.

 

[OrrNumber4]

It's not "three firsts" though, it's specifically a late 1st and early 2nd in a notoriously weak draft and a prospect who's tracking to be a 4C.

That's a laughably low offer for Byram and contains nothing that's of any use to the Sabres.

In that sense, the teams are a bad fit. But Buffalo could move those futures for something that they need. I think you are discounting the value of a first, even a late one in a weak draft...Bystedt is also a "B" level prospect and has some value.

 

[Hodge]

In that sense, the teams are a bad fit. But Buffalo could move those futures for something that they need. I think you are discounting the value of a first, even a late one in a weak draft...Bystedt is also a "B" level prospect and has some value.

IMO any trade for Byram has to start with Musty, Ferraro and the Dallas 1st then add from there.

That said, he did go for Mittelstadt 1-for-1 a year ago so maybe Byram isn't highly valued around the league due to his concussion history and uneven development. You'd have to think a full calendar year of staying healthy and resembling a top pairing defenseman has raised his value since that trade though.

 

[coooldude]

Now maybe he was hoping Mukhamadullin was going to be healthy and push one of those guys on the left side down, but it's my opinion that whatever he says publicly that he was counting on the defense to tank the team so that they could get another high pick this year. Mission accomplished. But that's two years of horrific defense

I agree with the majority of your post, and it doesn't matter what I think, but I believe Grier when he says he assumed we were going to be a bottom 5-7 team and not as bottom 1 as we are. I do think that he is selling assets that would help us not be bottom 2 (Blackwood is obvious, Granlund/Ceci is obvious) and so those decisions I think you could absolutely say, "hey, it's for the assets, but obviously it's a benefit that we are going to get a top pick" and that gets stated as "you know, you can't cheat the process, you have to do things the right way here." But I really don't think he iced this D corps licking his chops about Martone/Hagens back in Sept. I think this was as good as he could do, and I think what you speculated is right, I bet he hoped Mukh would step up.

and one year of the two brightest prospects in your system being frustrated because you lose games night after night because you can't get the puck out of your defensive zone and giving your young goalie who should be getting at least half of next year's starts no support.

I'm not yet worried about Celebrini and Smith and Eklund and losing. I think these guys have the optimism of youth and I think they know Grier is going to try to build this up. Maybe I'm biased speaking from my own experience, because I joined a college team that was not good but we all knew we were trying to make it better and 5 years later the team was near the top of the nation (because of my teammates, not me) even though the build-up years were ugly. I think the only thing that's going to crush the kids' morale is if they don't see the org making moves to improve the situation.

They can't do that for a third year in a row or they are going to be on the Buffalo plan. Doesn't mean they have to seriously contend for a playoff spot next year, but they have to be more competitive than they are this year and they need to be somewhere more in that 5-10 range of teams at worst.

I do agree with this. We can't be bottom 3 again next year without risking serious stagnation, UNLESS it's like an obvious fluke of a rash of injuries to key players after Grier did a whole lot to improve us in the offseason. If we do pick bottom 3, it's not inevitable that we're Buffalo, but it's absolutely time to put Grier on the hot seat, and 2027 needs to be much better or else we're on a worse-than-Yzerplan trajectory and someone else is going to get the chance to come in and retool what will be a sick prospect pool but no results that matter yet.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Upgrading from those two and upgrading the positions they play are two very different things. Depending on who is available in the offseason and the late season development of Mukh and/or Thompson I would keep both Walman and Ferraro into next season and even then I would wait and see what other prospects take the next step before moving them. To answer your question, what difference would it have made? That’s like asking what’s the worst that could happen, and the answer is far more than you think.

No, it's not like that at all. The team finished last. Getting however worse you want to say it would be to dump Ferraro for even Thrun is still just a last place finish at worst which would be no difference at all.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I'm still mad we didn't claim Dante Fabbro.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I'm still mad we didn't claim Dante Fabbro.

If he makes it to free agency, we can sign him.

 

[Juxtaposer]

If he makes it to free agency, we can sign him.

And so can every other team. If we'd claimed him and given him the minutes he deserves, he probably re-signs.

Low-key feeling like passing on Fabbro is Grier's worst move this season other than claiming [redacted].

 

[ChompChomp]

And so can every other team. If we'd claimed him and given him the minutes he deserves, he probably re-signs.

Low-key feeling like passing on Fabbro is Grier's worst move this season other than claiming [redacted].

I think you're right. It was a no-risk, easy move. And guaranteed to go to the Sharks if they put a claim in.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

I'd push back on the development of Bystedt being a bust. It would imply that your expectations for a 29th overall pick were unreasonable based on historical precedent if you expected more than a potential 3C from that pick.

Players in that range don't hit at high odds and if they do hit likely take time. Bystedt was a toolsy work in progress that is still tracking to be a potential top 9 player. That might come on the wing at the NHL level rather than center, but for 29th overall that is still a hit to get an NHLer.

Swapping him for another late 1st just pushes the ROI that much further into the future for a developmental prospect that would likely be in the same profile as Bystedt.

3C is super optimistic for Bystedt at this point. We should be pleasantly surprised if he gets 200 NHL games.

Based on what?

22 points in 38 AHL games in D+3 is pretty weak. Forwards who make the NHL in top-9 scoring roles are usually doing a lot better at that point.

 

[Patty Ice]

22 points in 38 AHL games in D+3 is pretty weak. Forwards who make the NHL in top-9 scoring roles are usually doing a lot better at that point.

Maybe if he was playing in North America this entire time. As it stands, he's been playing against men since being drafted. I think he's doing just fine.

If he was projected to be a top six forward I'd be worried but my expectations of him aren't that high. There are plenty of third line centers around the league that were scoring at a similar rate in the AHL.

 

[OrrNumber4]

There are plenty of third line centers around the league that were scoring at a similar rate in the AHL.

Sure, but I still think his value has declined. At one point, he was considered a sure-fire 3C with a outside chance as a top-6 player, and now it looks like he's more of a sure-fire fourth liner with a moderate chance at becoming something more.

If you could get a late round first for him, I think you take it...

 

[STL Shark]

Maybe if he was playing in North America this entire time. As it stands, he's been playing against men since being drafted. I think he's doing just fine.

If he was projected to be a top six forward I'd be worried but my expectations of him aren't that high. There are plenty of third line centers around the league that were scoring at a similar rate in the AHL.

And if he was not 6'4 then I would feel differently too. He just turned 21 last week and was deemed more tools than total package at the time of draft. If he was a Bordeleau type that was offense or nothing, I'd be more worried by the point totals.

However, he's not playing on the top line in the AHL with Poturalski getting that role (deservedly so). Have to look beyond the point totals with Bystedt, and judging by what scouts have said about him this year, he's tracking toward being "a good two-way third line center in 2 years."

 

[Patty Ice]

Sure, but I still think his value has declined. At one point, he was considered a sure-fire 3C with a outside chance as a top-6 player, and now it looks like he's more of a sure-fire fourth liner with a moderate chance at becoming something more.

If you could get a late round first for him, I think you take it...

In this draft? Pass

 

[hohosaregood]

Outside of the top 15ish prospects of each draft, I don't think it's really worth evaluating their NHL chances until D+4 for the most part unless they're stone cold busts.

 

[Grinner]

Thoughts on possibly trading for Bjorkstrand?
What would be a fair price?

 

[Patty Ice]

Low-key feeling like passing on Fabbro is Grier's worst move this season other than claiming [redacted].

I blame the Liljegren deal. If only the Preds waived him sooner.

 

[TheBeard]

No, it's not like that at all. The team finished last. Getting however worse you want to say it would be to dump Ferraro for even Thrun is still just a last place finish at worst which would be no difference at all.

If we were at the same goal differential at this point with the roster improvement as we were last year it would have been a disaster, so yeah it could have been worse.

 

[Barrie22]

If we were at the same goal differential at this point with the roster improvement as we were last year it would have been a disaster, so yeah it could have been worse.

We are worse defensively this year then we were last year at this point of the season.

We are better offensively, and every one knows that Ferraro especially does not affect that aspect of the game.

 

[STL Shark]

I blame the Liljegren deal. If only the Preds waived him sooner.

I don't know that they've been all that different since their moves. I'm sure Liljegren looks a bit better with Werenski as opposed to Ferraro.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I blame the Liljegren deal. If only the Preds waived him sooner.

There was absolutely no reason that we couldn't have done both. Rutta was fine as a #7.