Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Lebanezer]

Honestly, I have no idea what the Isles are doing. They should be rebuilding, but they won't. So with that, I kinda feel like putting Dobson on the block is an admission that he isn't that good, because they don't see him as valuable to trying to complete now.

I'd fork over a good package of picks and prospects for him, but if the Isles don't see him as a core piece, then I'm not interested in giving up a core piece (71/2/72/Dick/Asky/2025 1st/2026 1st) for him.

Zetterlund with a smallish plus might. E a decent offer, but frankly I have no interest in trading Zetterlund.

Lameriello doesn’t rebuild. He signs old dudes.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Sign me up for everything but your last sentence.

When is the last time a player like Dobson got a return like that? I know it was a while ago, but I would think he is worth closer to what we paid Minnesota for Burns. Something in the Zetterlund + Muk + Dallas 1st range? Or maybe we can swap Ferraro in there, he seems like a Lou kind of player. Something like Ferraro + Musty + Dallas 1st?

Then, you're right, we'd have to really rework out defense around Dobson, but if we land 1OA, that's a great start.

I'm not sure if there's a true comparable to Dobson. While I can largely agree regarding the Burns' comparable, Burns didn't have a 70 point season to his credit prior to that contract. Dobson is going to get more. I also don't know if Dobson is actually the impact sort of player that Burns was in his prime. We'll see. You might be right. Lou doesn't always max value for his players either.

 

[timorous me]

We are at the point that Wario is swapping handedness for Walman and Thrun

]

Probably should've been this way before now. Not sure why you'd think to put the younger, less-skilled, worse-skating of the two on his off side, but alas, at least he figured it out quickly and wasn't too stubborn to adjust.

 

[STL Shark]

NJ foolishly reaching for him at 2nd overall shouldn't impact his trade value 3 years later. Nemec hasn't done anything in the NHL or AHL so far to suggest he has a higher ceiling than a 25 minute per night 70 point defenseman. He's an offenseman being outscored by the younger Luca Cagnoni in the same league.

I highly doubt Zetterlund on an expiring contract has the trade value of a 1st, 2nd and 3rd but let's assume he does and assume Ferraro's trade value is roughly a 2nd and maybe a Thompson-level defense prospect. So the trade @vortexy proposed would come out to two late 1sts and two late 2nds in a bad draft, a 3rd and Thompson for Dobson. It seems like a no-brainer to swap those assets for Dobson no matter where your team is in the competitive cycle as long as he's willing to sign a long term extension.

And if Dobson was a 70 point D-Man, I'd probably feel differently. Issue is that he isn't though.

He had one year that was an anomaly and he reached that level, but the rest of his career paints him at what is his true level (50 points).

Also, "foolishly reached" is laughable. Nemec put up 19 points in 60 games as a 19 year old last year in the NHL. Roughly the same pace Dobson was at as a 21 year old. Stop with the "he's done nothing" nonsense.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

Seems like the reasonably optimistic projection for Dickinson is basically Dobson, in terms of not just player caliber but archetype as well.

From that point of view, it follows that it doesn’t really make sense to go after Dobson unless he can be had for spare parts.

 

[Hodge]

And if Dobson was a 70 point D-Man, I'd probably feel differently. Issue is that he isn't though.

He had one year that was an anomaly and he reached that level, but the rest of his career paints him at what is his true level (50 points).

Also, "foolishly reached" is laughable. Nemec put up 19 points in 60 games as a 19 year old last year in the NHL. Roughly the same pace Dobson was at as a 21 year old. Stop with the "he's done nothing" nonsense.

I'm not saying Dobson is a perennial 70 point defenseman but he has already proven his ceiling is at least a 70 point guy with #1D usage. It seems wild to suggest Nemec has a higher ceiling than that when there are only 10-15 defensemen in the entire league right now who have ever put up a better season than Dobson's 2023-24.

You don't think the Devils would rather have Cooley, Wright or even Jiricek? Nemec was always a risky pick out of a league with no recent track record of producing NHLers. He put up some empty calorie points last year in sheltered minutes on a bad team while getting killed defensively, prompting the Devils to go on a free agent signing spree to push him out of the lineup.

 

[Hodge]

Seems like the reasonably optimistic projection for Dickinson is basically Dobson, in terms of not just player caliber but archetype as well.

From that point of view, it follows that it doesn’t really make sense to go after Dobson unless he can be had for spare parts.

How does that follow? There's no guarantee Dickinson reaches that projection but even if he does it would be great to have a defense with both a left handed and right handed Dobson. Add a third guy of that caliber or better and the defense is pretty much set for the next 5-7 years.

 

[coooldude]

Seems like the reasonably optimistic projection for Dickinson is basically Dobson, in terms of not just player caliber but archetype as well.

From that point of view, it follows that it doesn’t really make sense to go after Dobson unless he can be had for spare parts.

I'm more and more sour on the idea in general, but I would disagree at your logic for two reasons
1) RD instead of LD
2) Timing, because Dickinson won't be Dobson today for another 7 years, if he even hits the ceiling.

So obviously not up to me (if it were, I'd pass given the likely cost), but if Grier and co decide A) we have a solid LD pipe and maybe we get Schaefer, so it's worth it and B) trade 7 years from now Dickinson for today Dobson because it means we can be in an actual playoff window in 2 years instead of 4-6, then they do it.

I doubt they do it.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

How does that follow? There's no guarantee Dickinson reaches that projection but even if he does it would be great to have a defense with both a left handed and right handed Dobson. Add a third guy of that caliber or better and the defense is pretty much set for the next 5-7 years.

If you think you can’t win with a Dickinson ceiling caliber player as your #1D: Don’t trade core pieces for Dobson who would also be a #1D you can’t win with.

If you think you can: Great, wait and see if Dickinson hits that ceiling, and if he does, build your defense around him when the time is appropriate and you’re ready to contend. Rather than paying a core piece for a guy who will be close to 30 at that point.

I'm more and more sour on the idea in general, but I would disagree at your logic for two reasons
1) RD instead of LD
2) Timing, because Dickinson won't be Dobson today for another 7 years, if he even hits the ceiling.

So obviously not up to me (if it were, I'd pass given the likely cost), but if Grier and co decide A) we have a solid LD pipe and maybe we get Schaefer, so it's worth it and B) trade 7 years from now Dickinson for today Dobson because it means we can be in an actual playoff window in 2 years instead of 4-6, then they do it.

I doubt they do it.

Dobson was scoring 50 points and playing 22 minutes by his D+4 season though. I’d argue Dickinson’s timeline aligns more with our contention window better than Dobson does.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

If you think you can’t win with a Dickinson ceiling caliber player as your #1D: Don’t trade core pieces for Dobson who would also be a #1D you can’t win with.

If you think you can: Great, wait and see if Dickinson hits that ceiling, and if he does, build your defense around him when the time is appropriate and you’re ready to contend. Rather than paying a core piece for a guy who will be close to 30 at that point.


Dobson was scoring 50 points and playing 22 minutes by his D+4 season though. I’d argue Dickinson’s timeline aligns more with our contention window better than Dobson does.

For Dobson, I'd really only keep our 1st pick this year, Macklin, Smith, Eklund, Askarov, and Dickinson off the table. I think everyone else is at least available in the right deal. Even if I don't think he's a #1 we can with, we can get significant value out of trading some package of assets beyond those six things for him and sign him for 8 years, 80 million.

 

[STL Shark]

If you think you can’t win with a Dickinson ceiling caliber player as your #1D: Don’t trade core pieces for Dobson who would also be a #1D you can’t win with.

If you think you can: Great, wait and see if Dickinson hits that ceiling, and if he does, build your defense around him when the time is appropriate and you’re ready to contend. Rather than paying a core piece for a guy who will be close to 30 at that point.


Dobson was scoring 50 points and playing 22 minutes by his D+4 season though. I’d argue Dickinson’s timeline aligns more with our contention window better than Dobson does.

That top point is a succinct way of putting my stance. Dobson isn't bad. He's just not the top guy on a good team, and needs a particular style of partner to be a top pairing guy.

I just have a hard time putting that many assets toward a guy that isn't an all situations player while also not being elite offensively. Like if you're not going to PK, I need you to be closer to Makar, Fox, Karlsson, etc. in terms of producing offense and running a PP to warrant those assets.

To me, I think the value of the deal would look like the Hronek deal of 2 years ago. Maybe a Cagnoni, Thrun, etc. level prospect or 2nd rounder gets added for being 6'4 and having that 1 standout season, but I don't know that the caliber of player is all that dissimilar.

 

[Hodge]

If you think you can’t win with a Dickinson ceiling caliber player as your #1D: Don’t trade core pieces for Dobson who would also be a #1D you can’t win with.

If you think you can: Great, wait and see if Dickinson hits that ceiling, and if he does, build your defense around him when the time is appropriate and you’re ready to contend. Rather than paying a core piece for a guy who will be close to 30 at that point.

Sure, I don't think anyone wants us to trade Celebrini, Smith, Askarov or one of our own future 1sts for him. But Eklund and Zetterlund, as great as they are, will be easier to replace than finding a young top pair RHD.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Lameriello doesn’t rebuild. He signs old dudes.

My point is that if you're a team supposedly trying to complete and you're putting a 25 year old 6'4" RHD on the block, then there must be something wrong with that player.

 

[Lebanezer]

My point is that if you're a team supposedly trying to complete and you're putting a 25 year old 6'4" RHD on the block, then there must be something wrong with that player.

He’s too young. More likely, they have no interest in meeting his contract demands.

 

[mogambomoroo]

Has anyone consider that he got 70 points as a defencemen in New York Islanders? That to me screams he can easily outscore that in a more young/creative/offensive team. At least the Islanders that I remember doesn't play stat favoring style of hockey.
And also maybe they underrate him because of his flaws in defensive game, but if he can be a close to PPG player playing tons of minutes as an RD that's a win in this environment.

 

[Juxtaposer]

He’s too young. More likely, they have no interest in meeting his contract demands.

And so I question why they don't want to meet the contract demands of a 25 year old 6'4" defenseman who scored 70 points last season.

Either he's asking for something insane (>$10M), in which I don't want to trade for him because I don't want to pay him something insane and/or he can elect arbitration and send himself straight to UFA, or he's asking for something reasonable ($8Mish) for a top-pairing RHD his age and they don't think he's a top pairing defenseman. Either way, it's a red flag to me.

 

[vortexy]

Has anyone consider that he got 70 points as a defencemen in New York Islanders? That to me screams he can easily outscore that in a more young/creative/offensive team. At least the Islanders that I remember doesn't play stat favoring style of hockey.
And also maybe they underrate him because of his flaws in defensive game, but if he can be a close to PPG player playing tons of minutes as an RD that's a win in this environment.

Bottom 10 in scoring the past 4 years, this year they have even scored less than the Sharks…let that sink in.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

For Dobson, I'd really only keep our 1st pick this year, Macklin, Smith, Eklund, Askarov, and Dickinson off the table. I think everyone else is at least available in the right deal. Even if I don't think he's a #1 we can with, we can get significant value out of trading some package of assets beyond those six things for him and sign him for 8 years, 80 million.

Sure, I don't think anyone wants us to trade Celebrini, Smith, Askarov or one of our own future 1sts for him. But Eklund and Zetterlund, as great as they are, will be easier to replace than finding a young top pair RHD.

To clarify, by spare parts I meant anything below Eklund and Dickinson. Eklund might be more replaceable in a sense but that replacement will probably be a lot older and more expensive.

I would consider Zetterlund, and DAL 2026 1st, or something of that nature if Dobson were willing to sign an 8-year extension.

That top point is a succinct way of putting my stance. Dobson isn't bad. He's just not the top guy on a good team, and needs a particular style of partner to be a top pairing guy.

I just have a hard time putting that many assets toward a guy that isn't an all situations player while also not being elite offensively. Like if you're not going to PK, I need you to be closer to Makar, Fox, Karlsson, etc. in terms of producing offense and running a PP to warrant those assets.

To me, I think the value of the deal would look like the Hronek deal of 2 years ago. Maybe a Cagnoni, Thrun, etc. level prospect or 2nd rounder gets added for being 6'4 and having that 1 standout season, but I don't know that the caliber of player is all that dissimilar.

I think you can win with Dobson as a top guy (I think he is quite similar to 2023 Pietrangelo) but you need a really strong forward group. He'd be comfortably on the lower end of Stanley Cup Champion #1D but also comfortably not the worst. I agree that the sort of package folks are throwing around (Dickinson + Musty + 1st) should only go for a guy who projects to be a whole tier above Dickinson himself.

I think Dobson gets more than Hronek because Hronek also didn't have the same pedigree as Dobson and really only had one year of great play. But maybe not a fundamentally different return.

 

[sincityshark]

Wondering if either Marner or Matthews end up a shark down the road due to their bond with Jumbo/Patty .

what do you guys think?

 

[Jargon]

To clarify, by spare parts I meant anything below Eklund and Dickinson. Eklund might be more replaceable in a sense but that replacement will probably be a lot older and more expensive.

I would consider Zetterlund, and DAL 2026 1st, or something of that nature if Dobson were willing to sign an 8-year extension.



I think you can win with Dobson as a top guy (I think he is quite similar to 2023 Pietrangelo) but you need a really strong forward group. He'd be comfortably on the lower end of Stanley Cup Champion #1D but also comfortably not the worst. I agree that the sort of package folks are throwing around (Dickinson + Musty + 1st) should only go for a guy who projects to be a whole tier above Dickinson himself.

I think Dobson gets more than Hronek because Hronek also didn't have the same pedigree as Dobson and really only had one year of great play. But maybe not a fundamentally different return.

Yeah while I ultimately would really want a player of his caliber because we really, really need it, I’m not sure I’d be willing to trade Eklund who I see as an important piece for us (and for who I don’t see an immediate replacement). And I’m not willing to part with Dickinson, which makes it a pick/prospect-laden offer and I don’t think they want that, so I’m fine passing.

 

[OrrNumber4]

My point is that if you're a team supposedly trying to complete and you're putting a 25 year old 6'4" RHD on the block, then there must be something wrong with that player.

This is an excellent point, and something to keep in mind anytime you see a putative top player/prospect moved...sometimes you can blame logistics or bad management (Askarov). Still, often it's because the team that knows the player best, sees him in practice every day, talks to him, etc. doesn't think he has the chops.

 

[coooldude]

Wondering if either Marner or Matthews end up a shark down the road due to their bond with Jumbo/Patty .

what do you guys think?

Personally I think it's a bridge too far -- lots of guys have bonds with lots of guys. But who knows -- Marner sweepstakes this summer.

 

[Celly4Celebrini]

Not exactly young but Ferraro + to the jets for Ehlers and flip him plus the Dallas 1st for Dobson?

see i like that thought process. we need more of this. I wonder what else we have that would entice Winnipeg to that.

 

[Star Platinum]

My whole problem with the idea of trading for a guy like Dobson is that I think we would make far more hay trading less valuable assets to get solid defensive, but offensively unspectacular defensemen and sprinkle them all throughout our three defense pairs than to blow a lot of future assets on an imperfect offensive defenseman. The most important thing the Sharks need to do right now is to deal with the gaping wound in their own zone so that they can start finishing the games where they have leads in the third period better.

 

[Lebanezer]

And so I question why they don't want to meet the contract demands of a 25 year old 6'4" defenseman who scored 70 points last season.

Either he's asking for something insane (>$10M), in which I don't want to trade for him because I don't want to pay him something insane and/or he can elect arbitration and send himself straight to UFA, or he's asking for something reasonable ($8Mish) for a top-pairing RHD his age and they don't think he's a top pairing defenseman. Either way, it's a red flag to me.

Lamiorello isn't gonna meet the demands of a guy who asks for something reasonable given his production if it goes against Lou's antiquated concept of value.