Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[OrrNumber4]

Could be another Noesen, though hopefully this time he booms with the Sharks and not after...

 

[Hodge]

Don't get your hopes up. Like Grundstrom, this is a JAG. I assume he'll be on the Cuda once Sturm is off IR, or maybe he stays in the pressbox / rotating with Grundstrom if we keep having injuries or enough trades go through.

1 point in 16 games with the Flames this year, guy's not going to move the needle.

Bigger version of Grundstrom is all I'm expecting from him. I'm guessing he stays with the big club through the end of the season considering the likelihood of trades and the fact that the only Cuda forward who's remotely worth recalling is Cardwell.

 

[LadyStanley]

AHL player swap

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Claiming Duehr is prep work for the trade deadline. That's all it really is. I wouldn't be surprised if another player in a similar mold to him that is expiring gets claimed by the Sharks between now and then too. Granlund, Sturm, and Kunin should all be on the trade block and moved by the deadline and with the Barracuda in a playoff race, being able to at least keep what they have down there would be useful for making it to the playoffs. Wouldn't be surprised to see them send Graf back down once Sturm gets off IR.

 

[Hobocop]

Neither move really serves any purpose.

Scratch that, he saw the 71 and thinks he might be a right handed Celebrini.

Not any immediate purpose, but the trade has AHL implications. Barracuda could add another vet now, whether it's by acquiring one or sending one of the Sharks down. Could mean there's another move coming shortly, or could just be for added flexibility.

Regenda isn't a bad return for Bailey, really. Big LW for a big RW.

 

[Juxtaposer]

One scout went so far as to say a lot of the players who will be drafted in the bottom half of the first round would in prior years be better suited to being second-round picks.

“It’s all relative of course,” the scout said, “but I’d say the second rounders this year would be third rounders in previous years where there was greater depth.”

From the McKenzie ranking article. Yet another reason why we don't need to miss the VGK 1st from the Askarov trade. And why getting a 2026 2nd from Colorado for Blackwood was better than getting one this year.

I wouldn't be shocked to see Grier move our 2025 2nd rounder for help on D, unless one of the RHD fall down there. I have to imagine the 33rd overall pick has more value than a typical early 2nd specifically because everyone's gonna have a guy they think should have gone mid-1st who somehow slipped out of the 1st round.

 

[STL Shark]

From the McKenzie ranking article. Yet another reason why we don't need to miss the VGK 1st from the Askarov trade. And why getting a 2026 2nd from Colorado for Blackwood was better than getting one this year.

I wouldn't be shocked to see Grier move our 2025 2nd rounder for help on D, unless one of the RHD fall down there. I have to imagine the 33rd overall pick has more value than a typical early 2nd specifically because everyone's gonna have a guy they think should have gone mid-1st who somehow slipped out of the 1st round.

Thing is, it's all going to play out the same way as the draft has every year. Weak or strong draft, they virtually always wind up in the same place as a whole in terms of number of 1st rounders that turn into contributors. There is no meaningful difference as a whole between drafts deemed as strong vs weak once you zoom out 4-5 years.

 

[LadyStanley]

 

[Star Platinum]

Making a meaningless AHL trade and claiming a 4th liner on waivers is flailing?

Well, it must have some meaning - otherwise why do it?

 

[Pinkfloyd]

From the McKenzie ranking article. Yet another reason why we don't need to miss the VGK 1st from the Askarov trade. And why getting a 2026 2nd from Colorado for Blackwood was better than getting one this year.

I wouldn't be shocked to see Grier move our 2025 2nd rounder for help on D, unless one of the RHD fall down there. I have to imagine the 33rd overall pick has more value than a typical early 2nd specifically because everyone's gonna have a guy they think should have gone mid-1st who somehow slipped out of the 1st round.

I wouldn't be shocked either but there are a few RHD's in that area that we could pick or move up to pick or even move back and still get in cases like possibly Trethewey, Amico, and Radivojevic.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Thing is, it's all going to play out the same way as the draft has every year. Weak or strong draft, they virtually always wind up in the same place as a whole in terms of number of 1st rounders that turn into contributors. There is no meaningful difference as a whole between drafts deemed as strong vs weak once you zoom out 4-5 years.

I'll play.

2013, considered to be a fairly strong draft: Mackinnon and Barkov superstars. Jones was a #1D at his peak. Lindholm, Horvat, and Monahan were #1C's at their peak. Nurse, Ristolainen, and Nichushkin are valuable contributors and only Drouin was a "bust" in the top-10. Josh Morrisey at #13 and Shea Theodore at #26 became top-10 NHL D. Domi, Pulock, Zadorov, Wennberg, Mantha, Burakovsky, Dickinson, and Hartman became middle of the lineup contributors. Total full busts: Lazar, Rychel, Morin, Gauthier, Poirier, McCarron, Shinkaruk, Dano, Klimchuk.

2014, considered to be a weak draft after the top-4: Ekblad, Reinhart, Bennett, Nylander, Larkin, Ehlers became top line players in their primes. Draisaitl and Pastrnak are the superstars of the bunch. Fiala, Sanheim, Tuch, McCann, and Kempe are middle of the lineup good players. Guys like Schmaltz, Kapanen, and Fabbri stuck around on the fringes of lineups. Full busts: Dal Colle (#5), Virtanen (#6), Fleury (#7), Ritchie (#10), Perlini, Vrana, Honka, Milano, DeAngelo, Bleakley, Goldobin, Scherbak, Ho-Sang, Quennville.

2015, considered to be an extremely strong draft: McDavid, Eichel, Marner, Werenski, Rantanen, Barzal, and Conner became superstars and franchise players. Strome, Hanifin, Provorov, Meier, Chabot, Eriksson-Ek, Boeser, and Konecny became top of the lineup players. DeBrusk, Zacha, Crouse, and Samsonov are solid middle-of-the-lineup performers. Juulsen, Roslovic, and Beauvillier have stuck around in NHL lineups. Full busts: Gurianov, Zboril, Senyshen, Svechnikov, White, Larsson, Carlsson, Merkley. A lot of good players came out of the 2nd round in this one too (Aho, Carlo, Cernak, Hintz, Blackwood, Greenway, Andersson, Dunn, Siegenthaler). The best guys to come out of the 2014 2nd round were all goaltenders (Demko, Vanecek) and the best skater was Barbashev or Montour.

2016, considered to be somewhat weak outside of the big 3 (Matthews, Laine, Puljujarvi) and especially in the late 1st: Superstars Matthews and Tkachuk. Top of the lineup Keller, McAvoy, Thompson, Chychrun, Laine, Sergachev. Everyday NHLers: Dubois, Kunin, Fabbro, Stanley, Howden, Frederic, Steel. Full busts: Puljujarvi, Juolevi, Nylander, Jost, McLeod, Brown, Bean, Bellows, Cholowski, Gauthier, Rubstov, Borgstrom, Tufte, Jones, Johansen.

2017, considered to be extremely weak: Superstar Makar. Top line players Heiskanen, Necas, Pettersson, Suzuki, Thomas, Oettinger. Everyday NHLers Mittlestadt, Rasmussen, Tippett, Vilardi, Liljegren, Norris, Vaakanainen, Chytil, Poehling, Kostin, Tolvanen, Frost, Jokiharju, Joseph. Full-busts: Patrick (#2), Glass (#6), Andersson (#7), Foote, Brannstrom, Yamamoto, Bowers, Vesalainen.

So what can we learn from these drafts in hindsight? IMO, here are the takeaways:

- When a draft is described as "strong", nobody in the top-10 busts (2013 and 2015). When a draft is described as "weak", there are many total busts in the top-10 (2014, 2016, 2017).
- When a draft is considered strong, there are more high end players.
- When a draft is considered strong, there is often first line talent sprinkled through the second round.
- When a draft is considered weak, there may still be a lot of "hits" in the sense that guys play in the NHL, but they're all bottom of the lineup guys with little value (ie 2017 as a perfect example).
- When a draft is considered strong, the best guys are found at the top of the 1st round. When a draft is considered weak, the best guys are often found later in the 1st or even the 2nd round. That is because those guys "came out of nowhere" after the draft.

You may be right with the strict number of NHLers that are produced from each draft, but I would strongly attribute that to aging curves rather than the idea that all drafts are created equal. And when I'm talking about what a draft being "strong" means to me, it means getting meaningful contributors. Not a bunch of Klim Kostins.

My prediction for recent drafts is that everyone in the top-10 of the 2023 NHL draft becomes a meaningful contributor, while everyone in the 2024 top-10 plays some of them aren't better than bottom-six forwards/bottom-pairing D, and 2025 sees multiple top-10 picks flat-out bust a la Cody Glass.

 

[Hodge]

Well, it must have some meaning - otherwise why do it?

Meaningless to the NHL club. I believe it opens up a veteran roster spot on the Barracuda. Honestly wouldn't be surprised if this was purely a Joe Will transaction which makes the idea that Grier is "flailing" even more ridiculous.

 

[Star Platinum]

Meaningless to the NHL club. I believe it opens up a veteran roster spot on the Barracuda. Honestly wouldn't be surprised if this was purely a Joe Will transaction which makes the idea that Grier is "flailing" even more ridiculous.

Makes me wonder if one of our plugs is about to be put on waivers

 

[STL Shark]

I'll play.

2013, considered to be a fairly strong draft: Mackinnon and Barkov superstars. Jones was a #1D at his peak. Lindholm, Horvat, and Monahan were #1C's at their peak. Nurse, Ristolainen, and Nichushkin are valuable contributors and only Drouin was a "bust" in the top-10. Josh Morrisey at #13 and Shea Theodore at #26 became top-10 NHL D. Domi, Pulock, Zadorov, Wennberg, Mantha, Burakovsky, Dickinson, and Hartman became middle of the lineup contributors. Total full busts: Lazar, Rychel, Morin, Gauthier, Poirier, McCarron, Shinkaruk, Dano, Klimchuk.

2014, considered to be a weak draft after the top-4: Ekblad, Reinhart, Bennett, Nylander, Larkin, Ehlers became top line players in their primes. Draisaitl and Pastrnak are the superstars of the bunch. Fiala, Sanheim, Tuch, McCann, and Kempe are middle of the lineup good players. Guys like Schmaltz, Kapanen, and Fabbri stuck around on the fringes of lineups. Full busts: Dal Colle (#5), Virtanen (#6), Fleury (#7), Ritchie (#10), Perlini, Vrana, Honka, Milano, DeAngelo, Bleakley, Goldobin, Scherbak, Ho-Sang, Quennville.

2015, considered to be an extremely strong draft: McDavid, Eichel, Marner, Werenski, Rantanen, Barzal, and Conner became superstars and franchise players. Strome, Hanifin, Provorov, Meier, Chabot, Eriksson-Ek, Boeser, and Konecny became top of the lineup players. DeBrusk, Zacha, Crouse, and Samsonov are solid middle-of-the-lineup performers. Juulsen, Roslovic, and Beauvillier have stuck around in NHL lineups. Full busts: Gurianov, Zboril, Senyshen, Svechnikov, White, Larsson, Carlsson, Merkley. A lot of good players came out of the 2nd round in this one too (Aho, Carlo, Cernak, Hintz, Blackwood, Greenway, Andersson, Dunn, Siegenthaler). The best guys to come out of the 2014 2nd round were all goaltenders (Demko, Vanecek) and the best skater was Barbashev or Montour.

2016, considered to be somewhat weak outside of the big 3 (Matthews, Laine, Puljujarvi) and especially in the late 1st: Superstars Matthews and Tkachuk. Top of the lineup Keller, McAvoy, Thompson, Chychrun, Laine, Sergachev. Everyday NHLers: Dubois, Kunin, Fabbro, Stanley, Howden, Frederic, Steel. Full busts: Puljujarvi, Juolevi, Nylander, Jost, McLeod, Brown, Bean, Bellows, Cholowski, Gauthier, Rubstov, Borgstrom, Tufte, Jones, Johansen.

2017, considered to be extremely weak: Superstar Makar. Top line players Heiskanen, Necas, Pettersson, Suzuki, Thomas, Oettinger. Everyday NHLers Mittlestadt, Rasmussen, Tippett, Vilardi, Liljegren, Norris, Vaakanainen, Chytil, Poehling, Kostin, Tolvanen, Frost, Jokiharju, Joseph. Full-busts: Patrick (#2), Glass (#6), Andersson (#7), Foote, Brannstrom, Yamamoto, Bowers, Vesalainen.

So what can we learn from these drafts in hindsight? IMO, here are the takeaways:

- When a draft is described as "strong", nobody in the top-10 busts (2013 and 2015). When a draft is described as "weak", there are many total busts in the top-10 (2014, 2016, 2017).
- When a draft is considered strong, there are more high end players.
- When a draft is considered strong, there is often first line talent sprinkled through the second round.
- When a draft is considered weak, there may still be a lot of "hits" in the sense that guys play in the NHL, but they're all bottom of the lineup guys with little value (ie 2017 as a perfect example).
- When a draft is considered strong, the best guys are found at the top of the 1st round. When a draft is considered weak, the best guys are often found later in the 1st or even the 2nd round. That is because those guys "came out of nowhere" after the draft.

You may be right with the strict number of NHLers that are produced from each draft, but I would strongly attribute that to aging curves rather than the idea that all drafts are created equal. And when I'm talking about what a draft being "strong" means to me, it means getting meaningful contributors. Not a bunch of Klim Kostins.

My prediction for recent drafts is that everyone in the top-10 of the 2023 NHL draft becomes a meaningful contributor, while everyone in the 2024 top-10 plays some of them aren't better than bottom-six forwards/bottom-pairing D, and 2025 sees multiple top-10 picks flat-out bust a la Cody Glass.

2015 having a generational talent skews it a lot. It's far and away the best draft of the last 20 years probably. And even then, it's a difference of 0.48 PPG to 0.42 PPG amongst it's draftees compared to 2017 (the very weak draft). If those are the far ends of the spectrum, I stand by my point regarding basically all drafts being about the same when you zoom out.

I would definitely not be using the McKenzie line about 2025 draft being weak to opine about the value of a 2nd round pick as those are a total crap shoot no matter the strength or weakness of a particular draft class.

 

[Juxtaposer]

2015 having a generational talent skews it a lot. It's far and away the best draft of the last 20 years probably. And even then, it's a difference of 0.48 PPG to 0.42 PPG amongst it's draftees compared to 2017 (the very weak draft). If those are the far ends of the spectrum, I stand by my point regarding basically all drafts being about the same when you zoom out.

I would definitely not be using the McKenzie line about 2025 draft being weak to opine about the value of a 2nd round pick as those are a total crap shoot no matter the strength or weakness of a particular draft class.

Even if you take McDavid out, you can clearly see that 2015 is far better than 2017.

I absolutely hate using arbitrary measurements like "most players to 200 NHL games played" or points per game as measurements for draft class success (as it skews in favor of forward-heavy classes). That's why I took the time and went through and listed everything qualitatively.

I'd rather have a pick in a stronger draft than the same pick in a weaker draft. JMO, I guess...