Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Forlan]

Smith is definitely not ready for the intensity and speed of the league yet. His passivity and gentleness are a problem. It seems to me that his success depends very much on his partners, despite his hockey IQ and vision of the ice.

 

[weastern bias]

The elephant in the room has always been that Will Smith is not NHL ready at this moment in time but the organization is committed to keeping him on the big club as they see that as a better path for his development

He's pacing to score 13 goals and 29 points in 74 games while providing absolutely nothing other than offense, he's a negative defender, a zero in the physical game, can't play center at this level right now, doesn't process play at NHL speed and reacts even more slowly, isn't a fast skater, and while he has a nice shot he struggles to get it off in stride during the course of play

His major strengths right now are his vision and passing but he doesn't have the complimentary skills to use those to his advantage, especially at 5-on-5, he's much better with the open ice afforded to him on the PP but Wario refuses to put him on the 1st unit so he doesn't get consistent reps on the man advantage, it's one of the bizarre dissonances we've seen this season where the "developmental plan" is butting up against the coach's desire to win every game, he should probably be getting a Scott Gomez style of deployment if they want to maximize his effectiveness right now but Wario is more concerned with maximizing team results

This is part of why I thought sending him to the world juniors was a good idea, his confidence has to be low right now, and understandably so as he is playing very poorly, we just have to hold out hope that these early struggles will be learning experiences he can draw from going forward and that he will continue improving year-over-year from here on out

There's no real reason to be concerned with him long term, he's 19 years old, he should be a sophomore in college right now, it would be weird if he was a good NHL player already, Celebrini is weird and he skews our expectations for prospect development

We'll go through this same thing next year or the year after when Dickinson graduates and we wonder why he isn't an NHL ready defenseman at 20 years old, these are kids, they're not supposed to be playing and succeeding at this level just yet, it's all gonna be fine

 

[Lebanezer]

The elephant in the room has always been that Will Smith is not NHL ready at this moment in time but the organization is committed to keeping him on the big club as they see that as a better path for his development

He's pacing to score 13 goals and 29 points in 74 games while providing absolutely nothing other than offense, he's a negative defender, a zero in the physical game, can't play center at this level right now, doesn't process play at NHL speed and reacts even more slowly, isn't a fast skater, and while he has a nice shot he struggles to get it off in stride during the course of play

His major strengths right now are his vision and passing but he doesn't have the complimentary skills to use those to his advantage, especially at 5-on-5, he's much better with the open ice afforded to him on the PP but Wario refuses to put him on the 1st unit so he doesn't get consistent reps on the man advantage, it's one of the bizarre dissonances we've seen this season where the "developmental plan" is butting up against the coach's desire to win every game, he should probably be getting a Scott Gomez style of deployment if they want to maximize his effectiveness right now but Wario is more concerned with maximizing team results

This is part of why I thought sending him to the world juniors was a good idea, his confidence has to be low right now, and understandably so as he is playing very poorly, we just have to hold out hope that these early struggles will be learning experiences he can draw from going forward and that he will continue improving year-over-year from here on out

There's no real reason to be concerned with him long term, he's 19 years old, he should be a sophomore in college right now, it would be weird if he was a good NHL player already, Celebrini is weird and he skews our expectations for prospect development

We'll go through this same thing next year or the year after when Dickinson graduates and we wonder why he isn't an NHL ready defenseman at 20 years old, these are kids, they're not supposed to be playing and succeeding at this level just yet, it's all gonna be fine

He's not physically strong enough to be successful in the NHL yet. I can only assume he'll go back to development days soon, or he'll have another "injury" that keeps him out of the lineup for a week or 2. I don't worry about him from a processing or talent standpoint. He knows what he wants to do, but he's not fast or strong enough to actually do it 90% of the time.

 

[coooldude]

He's not physically strong enough to be successful in the NHL yet. I can only assume he'll go back to development days soon, or he'll have another "injury" that keeps him out of the lineup for a week or 2. I don't worry about him from a processing or talent standpoint. He knows what he wants to do, but he's not fast or strong enough to actually do it 90% of the time.

I agree and would take it a step further that you can see him overthinking - he knows he should press the puck, but then he knows he's not strong or fast enough so pressing might put him way out of position, so his feet freeze and he's behind the play in a half second anyway.

Another year and he'll hopefully be a bit stronger and faster and can pick and choose when to play faster without the puck and when to hold back, instead of always holding back, or trying to play fast but being too slow to do it.

If there's anything we should be unconcerned about, it's whether Smith can learn to play different styles of hockey. The issue is he's not physically ready, and that's okay AND it's not a solution to try to shoehorn him higher in the lineup.

 

[DarrylshutzSydor]

Joe Thornton rookie year stats:

GP55 G3 A4 PTS 7 let that soak in for a bit

 

[Hodge]

For all of Smith’s struggles he’s still scoring at basically an identical rate to Adam Fantilli this season. I don’t think anyone in Columbus is suggesting Fantilli should be in the AHL.

 

[Lebanezer]

For all of Smith’s struggles he’s still scoring at basically an identical rate to Adam Fantilli this season. I don’t think anyone in Columbus is suggesting Fantilli should be in the AHL.

Smith doesn't need to be sent down, I don't see the need for that. Hopefully his close proximity to Celebrini will help Smith imitate Mack's preparation and dedication as an accelerant to his development. I would like Smith to get some shifts at 5 on 5 with Mack every game to help him find some success and create space for him in the offensive zone.

 

[TheBeard]

For all of Smith’s struggles he’s still scoring at basically an identical rate to Adam Fantilli this season. I don’t think anyone in Columbus is suggesting Fantilli should be in the AHL.

The only argument for Smith going to the AHL is if War continues to only give him a handful of minutes a game.

 

[karltonian]

Smith has not earned the spot above Goodrow. Last game Goodrow made some defensive plays despite getting shelled while Smith literally made no plays and clearly could not hang. Which is fine given he's really in over his head but we need to get to get over the idea that playing established NHL veterans is somehow unfair to high ceiling, currently ineffective prospects.

Smith can't even win a puck battle when he has leverage, yet. He most definitely was NOT going to hack playing against McDavid's line all night.

 

[TheBeard]

Smith has not earned the spot above Goodrow. Last game Goodrow made some defensive plays despite getting shelled while Smith literally made no plays and clearly could not hang. Which is fine given he's really in over his head but we need to get to get over the idea that playing established NHL veterans is somehow unfair to high ceiling, currently ineffective prospects.

Smith can't even win a puck battle when he has leverage, yet. He most definitely was NOT going to hack playing against McDavid's line all night.

I agree. The only thing Will has earned is a roster spot and that's all due to his draft pedigree. Once he's on the team the onus is on him to prove he deserves better opportunities.

 

[timorous me]

Smith has not earned the spot above Goodrow. Last game Goodrow made some defensive plays despite getting shelled while Smith literally made no plays and clearly could not hang. Which is fine given he's really in over his head but we need to get to get over the idea that playing established NHL veterans is somehow unfair to high ceiling, currently ineffective prospects.

Smith can't even win a puck battle when he has leverage, yet. He most definitely was NOT going to hack playing against McDavid's line all night.

Of course we're not relying on Smith for any defensive contributions at the moment, but I don't think we should really be using yesterday's game as any kind of barometer for Smith--limited minutes with Sturm and Grundstrom? Very unlikely you're getting anything from him.

We also probably shouldn't be comparing Smith to Goodrow; yes, the spots they're taking in the lineup make it a thing, but these are completely different players and considering Goodrow offers zero in attack, he'd better contribute something defensively (but even there you could probably say he hasn't been good enough overall).

Smith's point totals aren't impressive, but how could they be considering his linemates for much of the season? And to the point @coooldude made about him overthinking things, that definitely was the case in all facets at the start of the season, but I think he was getting over a lot of that when he was playing with more skilled linemates. (Though of course without the puck getting past that will take time and experience.)

I'm just surprised with all this negativity when just a few weeks ago Smith was showing he belonged with six points in three games, then got injured and has had limited opportunities since then to get going again. Kostin coming back should help Warsofsky be able to put together three lines with enough skill on each one that Smith shouldn't be in these bad situations--he needs to develop in all facets, but I just don't get limiting what he's good at--and was looking more confident and successful in--by playing him with grinders.

 

[Timo Time]

Maybe I'm old school, but comparing a 19 year-old rookie to a guy who's been in the league for 11 years seems odd.

I'm really glad Barclay Goodrow can block some shots from time to time.

 

[weastern bias]

I'm just surprised with all this negativity when just a few weeks ago Smith was showing he belonged with six points in three games

The problem with saying that Smith has "showed he belongs" because he scored a few points is that his game is currently so empty beyond any offensive contributions that he has to produce points to justify his position as a roster player

Other bottom of the lineup options provide some other kind of utility in terms of forchecking, physicality, faceoffs, defensive play, PK utility, footspeed, veteran leadership, literally ANYTHING other than scoring points, Smith can't do any of that stuff so he doesn't really provide a lot of value as a guy who's gonna score about 30 points and do absolutely nothing else, he's not a legitimate NHL player right now

Again, that's not a huge problem long term, but it's also not a mystery why Wario won't give him bigger minutes with better linemates, his quality of play doesn't justify that deployment, but it also means that it is reasonable to question the organization's plan for him to stay on the big club all year, they're not doing him a lot of favors right now (other than getting him his full NHL salary on his ELC)

 

[Jargon]

I think we can stop being so reactive. A couple of games ago, Smith looked good. Before injury, he had a good run. This is what a human non-Celebrini prospect does in their first year. He will have tremendous ups and downs as he figures out the league. Very fast teams will be much harder for him to handle. It’s okay. He’ll learn. When our schedule has some average teams on it, I suspect this team will suddenly look the best it’s looked since it went through this gauntlet.

Our team is super young and this is their apprenticeship year. Let them fail and succeed without panicking/loudly celebrating every game — they’re still learning.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I think we can stop being so reactive. A couple of games ago, Smith looked good. Before injury, he had a good run. This is what a human non-Celebrini prospect does in their first year. He will have tremendous ups and downs as he figures out the league. Very fast teams will be much harder for him to handle. It’s okay. He’ll learn. When our schedule has some average teams on it, I suspect this team will suddenly look the best it’s looked since it went through this gauntlet.

Our team is super young and this is their apprenticeship year. Let them fail and succeed without panicking/loudly celebrating every game — they’re still learning.

I agree. We have to live with the ups and downs of a rebuild. We’re talking about rookies being coached by a rookie. There’s a lot of patience needed here if we’re expecting to do this well.

 

[Barrie22]

Lol at goodrow providing something defensively that he deserves to be above smith. He brings nothing offensively and nothing defensively.

He was the cause of the tying goal last night because he is so clueless with the puck he just decided passing the puck to an oiler at his own blueline was the best choice with 25 seconds left in the game.

 

[timorous me]

The problem with saying that Smith has "showed he belongs" because he scored a few points is that his game is currently so empty beyond any offensive contributions that he has to produce points to justify his position as a roster player

Other bottom of the lineup options provide some other kind of utility in terms of forchecking, physicality, faceoffs, defensive play, PK utility, footspeed, veteran leadership, literally ANYTHING other than scoring points, Smith can't do any of that stuff so he doesn't really provide a lot of value as a guy who's gonna score about 30 points and do absolutely nothing else, he's not a legitimate NHL player right now

Again, that's not a huge problem long term, but it's also not a mystery why Wario won't give him bigger minutes with better linemates, his quality of play doesn't justify that deployment, but it also means that it is reasonable to question the organization's plan for him to stay on the big club all year, they're not doing him a lot of favors right now (other than getting him his full NHL salary on his ELC)

I don't think using Smith's point pace is particularly accurate to what he brings offensively, though. For a little while he was on a zero point pace, after all. But then if you look at his short run before injury, he was at like a ppg pace.

Those first games, he was definitely suffering from a real culture shock--and was playing with non-skill guys, primarily. After he got more accustomed to things and got more skilled linemates, he looked like he did belong offensively. That's an important part of his development!

And I think, while we know what he needs to do better without the puck, we probably need to accept that he's only ever going to be so good in those aspects of his game. But he can do well in other areas, and I think something that's often overlooked is how good he can be at passing the puck out of the defensive or neutral zones, not just for zone exits but to get the team moving in transition quickly. I like that part of his game a lot.

 

[Zarzh]

Warso has provided Smith with ample opportunity, and has rewarded good stretches with better line mates and more playing time. But it cuts both ways and when Smith has struggled or been a non-factor his deployment reflects that. Seems all very sensible to me.

Not really. He hasn't had consistency or even been put in a position to succeed outside of his point streak and has been punished for terrible line ideas not working. It's a concerning development philosophy for any normal rookie. He's rarely been given time with a linemate who can handle the puck if he's pressured, or who can finish if he creates space for them.

His major strengths right now are his vision and passing but he doesn't have the complimentary skills to use those to his advantage, especially at 5-on-5, he's much better with the open ice afforded to him on the PP but Wario refuses to put him on the 1st unit so he doesn't get consistent reps on the man advantage, it's one of the bizarre dissonances we've seen this season where the "developmental plan" is butting up against the coach's desire to win every game, he should probably be getting a Scott Gomez style of deployment if they want to maximize his effectiveness right now but Wario is more concerned with maximizing team results

Warso is playing not to lose when he had the most success when trying to win. He's reverted to the idea of the bottom 6 being clock killers instead of running 3 scoring lines.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Maybe I'm old school, but comparing a 19 year-old rookie to a guy who's been in the league for 11 years seems odd.

I'm really glad Barclay Goodrow can block some shots from time to time.

Sharks fans have never watched a teenager play a full NHL season. Of course they don't know how to act. It is pretty embarrassing, though.

 

[Barrie22]

Sharks fans have never watched a teenager play a full NHL season. Of course they don't know how to act. It is pretty embarrassing, though.

Smith is being hurt by Celebrini being on the ice for 19 minutes of every game also. I firmly believe if he was breaking in alone, then smith would get the usual rookie treatment of everything is fine he is good for a 19 year old rookie. But everyone is comparing his play to the 18 rookie that is doing extremely better then all draft experts expected him to do.

 

[mogambomoroo]

Sorry to interrupt with a total subject change, but what do you guys feel about acquiring Ristolainen from Flyers if there is fair deal? Physical RD, 2 years left after this year with 5.10mil. Ends same time as Celebrini/Smith ELC's. Get him here to eat minutes and take Ceci spot.

Is it totally a bad idea? Is there any need for him?

 

[BaileyMacTavish]

Sorry to interrupt with a total subject change, but what do you guys feel about acquiring Ristolainen from Flyers if there is fair deal? Physical RD, 2 years left after this year with 5.10mil. Ends same time as Celebrini/Smith ELC's. Get him here to eat minutes and take Ceci spot.

Is it totally a bad idea? Is there any need for him?

I don't think we need him?

 

[Barrie22]

Sorry to interrupt with a total subject change, but what do you guys feel about acquiring Ristolainen from Flyers if there is fair deal? Physical RD, 2 years left after this year with 5.10mil. Ends same time as Celebrini/Smith ELC's. Get him here to eat minutes and take Ceci spot.

Is it totally a bad idea? Is there any need for him?

I feel like he is just another bottom pairing that is the same as the other 4 we already have.

 

[timorous me]

Sorry to interrupt with a total subject change, but what do you guys feel about acquiring Ristolainen from Flyers if there is fair deal? Physical RD, 2 years left after this year with 5.10mil. Ends same time as Celebrini/Smith ELC's. Get him here to eat minutes and take Ceci spot.

Is it totally a bad idea? Is there any need for him?

I've never been impressed by him. Well, physically, yes--impressive. Seems to have all the tools. But he always strikes me as someone with a low hockey IQ. Just not someone I'd want to use any assets for. Maybe in the right situation he could find another level, but I doubt our situation is that one.

 

[Pavelski2112]

Sorry to interrupt with a total subject change, but what do you guys feel about acquiring Ristolainen from Flyers if there is fair deal? Physical RD, 2 years left after this year with 5.10mil. Ends same time as Celebrini/Smith ELC's. Get him here to eat minutes and take Ceci spot.

Is it totally a bad idea? Is there any need for him?

I mean, if you want to really ensure a chance at Schaefer, he'd be a great pickup