Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[TheBeard]

What's going to happen over the next few years is that some of the veterans on the squad are going to be replaced by young players that are coming up and going through the same growing pains that Celebrini and Smith are going through now. It's gonna take a while before the depth of the team gets to the point where everybody's got experience and their talent starts to shine through.

I'd probably give it an extra year before starting to worry.

Worry? No. But inevitably some of our blue chip prospects will not work out. You look at the devils can’t miss blue chippers that were untouchable a couple years back now struggling in their own way. Mercer, Nemec, Hughes… granted they’re all young still and I understand that, but sometimes the best time to sell high on kids is before they reach the nhl. It’s not a question of expediting the process, but bringing in proven nhl talent that’s still young who can still grow with the young talent already playing on the big club.

If we could guarantee Tkachuk would still be a Shark in three years it would change the conversation quite a bit. But since we can't, I wouldn't be willing to bother with such a move right now.

granted that would be a sticking point.

Sounds like more than 3 years to me

Again it’s obviously contingent on keeping Brady for more than the duration of his current contract. If he’s gone regardless then yeah it’s a pointless debate.

 

[weastern bias]

The point was, Connor McDavid is not a disappointment, yet the Oilers were not a consistent playoff team for half a decade with him on the team because they couldn't field an NHL credible defense

If you want to make a trade to accelerate the timeline you can, but it HAS to be a defenseman, a scoring winger who doesn't contribute in other areas is a waste of assets at the bottom of the rebuild, go get an actual impact player if you want to push now

I would be against it myself, but I understand the argument to do so, but Brady Tkachuk is not changing our fortunes the way someone like Noah Dobson might

 

[TheBeard]

The point was, Connor McDavid is not a disappointment, yet the Oilers were not a consistent playoff team for half a decade with him on the team because they couldn't field an NHL credible defense

If you want to make a trade to accelerate the timeline you can, but it HAS to be a defenseman, a scoring winger who doesn't contribute in other areas is a waste of assets at the bottom of the rebuild, go get an actual impact player if you want to push now

I would be against it myself, but I understand the argument to do so, but Brady Tkachuk is not changing our fortunes the way someone like Noah Dobson might

Edmonton's struggles at the time were largely a product of poor drafting/trades. Giving away Taylor Hall for Larsson was a poor move, and outside of Nurse they were icing a blue line that had Matt Benning and Kris Russell and stopgaps in net like Cam Talbot and Mikko Koskinen. If (big if), the team manages to draft Schaeffer and can still make a move for Brady that centers around Musty then I'm all for it.

Obviously there's no way of knowing who will thrive and who will cater so there's no single blueprint that's right or wrong. I'm also not opposed to making a move for Dobson but I honestly think he'd end up costing significantly more than Brady will. I think it would start with Will Smith, and honestly, the fact that we have a potential star at 1 and 2C is a terrific starting point I'd rather not deviate from.

So no, if the team isn't sniffing playoffs in three years (doesn't mean major contenders or even fringe contenders) that doesn't mean anything. But if it takes another 6 years then yes something is wrong.

 

[hotcabbagesoup]

The point was, Connor McDavid is not a disappointment, yet the Oilers were not a consistent playoff team for half a decade with him on the team because they couldn't field an NHL credible defense

If you want to make a trade to accelerate the timeline you can, but it HAS to be a defenseman, a scoring winger who doesn't contribute in other areas is a waste of assets at the bottom of the rebuild, go get an actual impact player if you want to push now

I would be against it myself, but I understand the argument to do so, but Brady Tkachuk is not changing our fortunes the way someone like Noah Dobson might

Yes yes yes. You are on a roll with these posts!!! Not only are you Weastern biasnogdamus but you also take all of my thoughts and put them eloquently into words. WB for assistant GM!!

 

[Star Platinum]

Worry? No. But inevitably some of our blue chip prospects will not work out. You look at the devils can’t miss blue chippers that were untouchable a couple years back now struggling in their own way. Mercer, Nemec, Hughes… granted they’re all young still and I understand that, but sometimes the best time to sell high on kids is before they reach the nhl. It’s not a question of expediting the process, but bringing in proven nhl talent that’s still young who can still grow with the young talent already playing on the big club.

I'm certainly not expecting that these guys are all going to be All Stars at some point in their career, but if a good percentage of them become legitimate NHL level players, that will make the depth of the team a lot stronger than it is now. But of course I hope that a few guys end up being high-level players that elevate the play of the players around them.

We won't know until we know. I'm very encouraged by how much Dickinson has progressed this year though.

 

[jMoneyBrah]

I think it’s fair to expect the team should be challenging for a playoff spot in three years time. That is very different than a consistent playoff team. If the Sharks aren’t even sniffing the playoffs by then? Then, yeah, something has gone wrong.

I don’t know if Tkachuk is the answer. I suspect not, though I agree he likely garners a big package as his profile is roughly similarly to Meier’s prior to the NJ trade.

 

[weastern bias]

Edmonton's struggles at the time were largely a product of poor drafting/trades. Giving away Taylor Hall for Larsson was a poor move, and outside of Nurse they were icing a blue line that had Matt Benning and Kris Russell and stopgaps in net like Cam Talbot and Mikko Koskinen. If (big if), the team manages to draft Schaeffer and can still make a move for Brady that centers around Musty then I'm all for it.

Obviously there's no way of knowing who will thrive and who will cater so there's no single blueprint that's right or wrong. I'm also not opposed to making a move for Dobson but I honestly think he'd end up costing significantly more than Brady will. I think it would start with Will Smith, and honestly, the fact that we have a potential star at 1 and 2C is a terrific starting point I'd rather not deviate from.

So no, if the team isn't sniffing playoffs in three years (doesn't mean major contenders or even fringe contenders) that doesn't mean anything. But if it takes another 6 years then yes something is wrong.

We're largely in the same kind of situation Edmonton was in, a team bereft of talent and depth due to mismanagement from a previous regime, I was just pointing out that even though they drafted multiple players who exceeded every possible expectation you could reasonably have for them in McDavid and Draisaitl it took them a long time to build a roster that was a consistent playoff lock

The Sharks being bottom-third in league standings in 2027 would still be a major improvement and it wouldn't mean that Macklin Celebrini isn't performing up to expectations, it would mean that a team being built around the talents of children didn't climb from a 47 point season to top-half of the conference before our tank prize can legally buy alcohol, it's a completely normal timeframe

 

[jMoneyBrah]

We're largely in the same kind of situation Edmonton was in, a team bereft of talent and depth due to mismanagement from a previous regime, I was just pointing out that even though they drafted multiple players who exceeded every possible expectation you could reasonably have for them in McDavid and Draisaitl it took them a long time to build a roster that was a consistent playoff lock

The Sharks being bottom-third in league standings in 2027 would still be a major improvement and it wouldn't mean that Macklin Celebrini isn't performing up to expectations, it would mean that a team being built around the talents of children didn't climb from a 47 point season to top-half of the conference before our tank prize can legally buy alcohol, it's a completely normal timeframe

It would also mean the Grier was not able to do anything to build the team other than draft kids and acquire other teams castoffs. Grier’s job didn’t stop with the drafting of Celebrini. I expect him to continue to add to the roster beyond just the draft. There are trades and signings that can be made that considerably move the organization forward.

Again the assertion being made is that in three years time the Sharks should at least be in the hunt for the playoffs, not that they’re expected to be a consistent playoff team.

 

[Star Platinum]

It would also mean the Grier was not able to do anything to build the team other than draft kids and acquire other teams castoffs. Grier’s job didn’t stop with the drafting of Celebrini. I expect him to continue to add to the roster beyond just the draft. There are trades and signings that can be made that considerably move the organization forward.

The draft and develop kids part is still far and away the most important part though and we still have several more years to do that to get the team to a place where we're past picking up other team's castoffs.

 

[TheBeard]

We're largely in the same kind of situation Edmonton was in, a team bereft of talent and depth due to mismanagement from a previous regime, I was just pointing out that even though they drafted multiple players who exceeded every possible expectation you could reasonably have for them in McDavid and Draisaitl it took them a long time to build a roster that was a consistent playoff lock

The Sharks being bottom-third in league standings in 2027 would still be a major improvement and it wouldn't mean that Macklin Celebrini isn't performing up to expectations, it would mean that a team being built around the talents of children didn't climb from a 47 point season to top-half of the conference before our tank prize can legally buy alcohol, it's a completely normal timeframe

I honestly think we're in better shape coming into this year than Edmonton was their first year with Connor. Sure the actual big club stinks, but the depth of prospects is miles better than what Edmonton had in their system at the time, and it reflected on the club 3 years later when outside of Leon and Connor the team had pretty much nothing at forward, D and in nets. I would like to think Grier has done a better job stockpiling a future than Chiarelli did.

I honestly think some of the moves Grier made, like trading for Askarov and drafting Dickinson were done to give him the flexibility to make a big move without jeopardizing the future.

 

[weastern bias]

It would also mean the Grier was not able to do anything to build the team other than draft kids and acquire other teams castoffs. Grier’s job didn’t stop with the drafting of Celebrini. I expect him to continue to add to the roster beyond just the draft. There are trades and signings that can be made that considerably move the organization forward.

Again the assertion being made is that in three years time the Sharks should at least be in the hunt for the playoffs, not that they’re expected to be a consistent playoff team.

He has made INCREDIBLE additions over the last year outside of our draft picks, he's transformed the defense in a single summer, Grier is doing awesome work

The result is a last place caliber team, I think people are memoryholing last year a bit, that team was historically awful, one of the 30 worst seasons in the 107 year history of the league, expecting that to turn into a bubble team in 3 seasons is asking for miracle work

 

[weastern bias]

I honestly think we're in better shape coming into this year than Edmonton was their first year with Connor. Sure the actual big club stinks, but the depth of prospects is miles better than what Edmonton had in their system at the time, and it reflected on the club 3 years later when outside of Leon and Connor the team had pretty much nothing at forward, D and in nets. I would like to think Grier has done a better job stockpiling a future than Chiarelli did.

I honestly think some of the moves Grier made, like trading for Askarov and drafting Dickinson were done to give him the flexibility to make a big move without jeopardizing the future.

2015-16 Edmonton Oilers Roster, Stats, Injuries, Scores, Results, Shootouts | Hockey-Reference.com

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That team is deeper on F and comparable at defense, there really isn't a huge difference between the 2016 Oilers and the 2025 Sharks

 

[Juxtaposer]

So to be clear, those who are advocating for trading for Tkachuk would be happy to give up Smith+, Dickinson++, or our 2025 1st++ for him, right?

 

[Alaskanice]

Grier is the man.

 

[TheBeard]

He has made INCREDIBLE additions over the last year outside of our draft picks, he's transformed the defense in a single summer, Grier is doing awesome work

The result is a last place caliber team, I think people are memoryholing last year a bit, that team was historically awful, one of the 30 worst seasons in the 107 year history of the league, expecting that to turn into a bubble team in 3 seasons is asking for miracle work

He brought in stopgaps that look good because we're comparing them to what we're used to. He's 100% doing awesome work, but as many have said in the past, at this point it's easy to improve from the worst to almost the worst. It's the risks he takes from here on out (not like immediately, but eventually) that'll truly define his tenure. Again, we can look at the Ottawas and Chicagos and buffalos and Montreals as having done a good job starting from scratch, but I don't want to be Ottawa in 5 years where people are asking what we want for Will Smith or Eklund because what we have currently isn't working.

 

[TheBeard]

2015-16 Edmonton Oilers Roster, Stats, Injuries, Scores, Results, Shootouts | Hockey-Reference.com

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That team is deeper on F and comparable at defense, there really isn't a huge difference between the 2016 Oilers and the 2025 Sharks

Hence my emphasis on our stockpile of picks not on the big club. Edmonton had nothing. Edmonton was practically playing every single top draft pick on the big club, including Puuj. They had absolutely no one marinating in the farm. We are in better shape than they were.

So to be clear, those who are advocating for trading for Tkachuk would be happy to give up Smith+, Dickinson++, or our 2025 1st++ for him, right?

No. None of those should be part of the equation. I've said that multiple times with the only caveat being the 2025 first having protections. Obviously the asking package would change everything.

Would you give up, say a top ten protected first and Musty for Brady?

 

[hohosaregood]

I feel like the foundation is a lot more sustainable than other rebuilds. Good talented veterans at the top, good vibes, and foundational prospects at center and in goal. Also a deep prospect pool. I also think we're not completely dependent on the prospects completely hitting.

Our top 9 has a pretty legit construction and balance. I think we have a legit middle 6 here between the Lund line and Wennberg, Toffoli, and Goodrow. We have legit NHL 4th liners as well. You could build a team for the short term with these guys. How well Mack and Smith develop will define how good this team's forward group and there's no real reason to be pessimistic about their development.

I think on defense, we have the pieces for a bottom 4 between Walman and Liljegren, and the prospects. It's just going to be about how we get the top pairing. Dickinson' s development is looking good with a plausible shot at being a top pairing guy. Maybe we can get our 1D through free agency or through the draft. Getting the 1D is gonna be the cherry topper for this rebuild.

We have a long way to go but, to me, the bones are there.

 

[weastern bias]

He brought in stopgaps that look good because we're comparing them to what we're used to. He's 100% doing awesome work, but as many have said in the past, at this point it's easy to improve from the worst to almost the worst. It's the risks he takes from here on out (not like immediately, but eventually) that'll truly define his tenure. Again, we can look at the Ottawas and Chicagos and buffalos and Montreals as having done a good job starting from scratch, but I don't want to be Ottawa in 5 years where people are asking what we want for Will Smith or Eklund because what we have currently isn't working.

Literally no one got "used" to last year's defense, it was the worst season in the history of the salary cap, no one has seen a defense that bad in modern league history

I maintain that your expectations are unrealistic, we should have our window just opening in 5 years, we won't be shipping those guys off at that time because that's when they'll be most important, if we're trading any of them in 5 years it's because they're not core pieces after all

So to be clear, those who are advocating for trading for Tkachuk would be happy to give up Smith+, Dickinson++, or our 2025 1st++ for him, right?

This is literally what it would cost, it's why it's such a bad idea

 

[weastern bias]

Would you give up, say a top ten protected first and Musty for Brady?

No, if I'm moving any of those assets it's in a larger package for an impact defenseman

If you're accelerating the rebuild you don't go bargain shopping, spend the actual price it costs to get a real difference maker, don't waste pieces on a marginal 1st line talent who hasn't contributed to any level of winning in his 7 year career

 

[TheBeard]

This is literally what it would cost, it's why it's such a bad idea

When was the last time a player or pick of that magnitude was involved in a trade?

 

[TheBeard]

No, if I'm moving any of those assets it's in a larger package for an impact defenseman

If you're accelerating the rebuild you don't go bargain shopping, spend the actual price it costs to get a real difference maker, don't waste pieces on a marginal 1st line talent who hasn't contributed to any level of winning in his 7 year career

Real difference makers rarely get traded and if they do they’re either not that yet or they cost significantly more. If the cost is Dickinson or smith or our first then I’m out. Musty probably has more value as a trade chip than he would as a viable top line player (in my opinion).

I feel like the foundation is a lot more sustainable than other rebuilds. Good talented veterans at the top, good vibes, and foundational prospects at center and in goal. Also a deep prospect pool. I also think we're not completely dependent on the prospects completely hitting.

Our top 9 has a pretty legit construction and balance. I think we have a legit middle 6 here between the Lund line and Wennberg, Toffoli, and Goodrow. We have legit NHL 4th liners as well. You could build a team for the short term with these guys. How well Mack and Smith develop will define how good this team's forward group and there's no real reason to be pessimistic about their development.

I think on defense, we have the pieces for a bottom 4 between Walman and Liljegren, and the prospects. It's just going to be about how we get the top pairing. Dickinson' s development is looking good with a plausible shot at being a top pairing guy. Maybe we can get our 1D through free agency or through the draft. Getting the 1D is gonna be the cherry topper for this rebuild.

We have a long way to go but, to me, the bones are there.

In my opinion the second tier of prospects (not Mack or smith) not panning out would be more detrimental long term than bringing in Brady.

 

[Juxtaposer]

No. None of those should be part of the equation. I've said that multiple times with the only caveat being the 2025 first having protections. Obviously the asking package would change everything.

Would you give up, say a top ten protected first and Musty for Brady?

You know that trade protections on picks sliding means that the pick becomes unprotected the following year, right? So if we made the trade you're suggesting, we're giving up Musty and a very real shot at Gavin McKenna.

If Tkachuk can't pull Ottawa out of the basement, what makes you think he can pull the Sharks out? Ottawa has an established, proven #1C and an established, proven #1D, and still stinks. It takes more than two or three good players to escape the bottom of the standings.

I'll simply repeat my refrain for why I am not in favor of trading for Noah Dobson right now either: other than Celebrini, we have no sure bets to be core players. I like to think that Smith/Askarov/Dickinson/Eklund/2025 1st will be core players, but none of them have proven that yet and until at least two more of them do, we cannot make any kind of big trade for a non-controlled asset.

 

[weastern bias]

When was the last time a player or pick of that magnitude was involved in a trade?

The Sharks traded for the most highly touted goalie prospect in the league 91 days ago

Bowen Byram was traded 261 days ago

Cutter Gauthier was traded for Jamie Drysdale 319 days ago

That's a series of highly valued young players traded in this calender year, they all had extenuating circumstances but so would any Tkachuk trade, it happens any time a team has a want or need to do so

 

[OrrNumber4]

It's hard to account for what could happen in the future, but I'd be disappointed if the Sharks weren't at least a playoff team in the 2026-2027 season. Keep in mind that cycles are shorter than ever.

The Sharks traded for the most highly touted goalie prospect in the league 91 days ago

Bowen Byram was traded 261 days ago

Mitigating circumstances in both cases

Cutter Gauthier was traded for Jamie Drysdale 319 days ago

Is Gauthier a top-tier prospect, though?

 

[TheBeard]

The Sharks traded for the most highly touted goalie prospect in the league 91 days ago

Bowen Byram was traded 261 days ago

Cutter Gauthier was traded for Jamie Drysdale 319 days ago

That's a series of highly valued young players traded in this calender year, they all had extenuating circumstances but so would any Tkachuk trade, it happens any time a team has a want or need to do so

Askarov nor Cutter would have been moved if they didn't demand a trade out. It kind of put the team behind the 8-ball in terms of what the return would be. Drysdale was already damaged goods hence why a 2nd was attached to him.

I don't know if I put Byram (or Mittelstadt for that matter) in the same boat. I honestly wouldn't mind Grier keeping his eyes open for guys in that mould. I still stand by the idea of signing Chychrun in the offseason if he was interested in coming aboard. I think it's easier to find capable top 4 d-men in free agency than top line forwards just entering their prime.

Look, I'm not saying you're wrong in your blueprint, but I do think obtaining a player like Celebrini expedites any rebuild, especially since he's proven he's capable of being the guy (even if he's not there yet).