Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Cas]

Don't get me wrong, I'd welcome his talent, it's the acquisition cost that makes him a bad target for San Jose

We need a player like him, but we absolutely can not be sending out high level picks or prospects for a player who is not a true difference maker, not in year one of the rebuild while we still have a bottom-of-the-league caliber roster

If we're trading any of our most important assets (1st round picks or high value prospects, which any Tkachuk trade would require) it MUST be for an impact defenseman or for a forward who truly drives play and makes a difference to a team, Brady Tkachuk is not that player, the only teams that should be targeting him are teams that are already good, he will not a make a bad team into a good team, his entire career proves as much

The key point here, which a lot of people don't necessarily get in any sport, is that the value of a player as an asset is often entirely disconnected from the value of a player in terms of playing the game.

I'd love to have Karlsson back, but I would not want to have Karlsson back at his cap hit while having also paid real assets to acquire him. This is true if you replace Karlsson with whoever your favorite older, expensive, good player target is too (for those who just don't want Karlsson; that's not actually my point).

Tkachuk is a winger who is now exiting his physical prime, expensive, highly regarded publicly, but whose actual on-ice performance does not actually put him in the actual top tier. He's an excellent player, but he's not so excellent that paying the price for three years of him would be worth it.

 

[Hodge]

Today I learned $8.2M out of a $100M cap is too expensive for a 25 year old power forward who scores 35 a year on a terrible team.

 

[hotcabbagesoup]

Tkachuk is no Mark Stone. I'd even take a spleenless Mark Stone over Brady. Brady is like Evander Kane level player.

 

[Star Platinum]

I mean at that same time though who cares? Why do you have to shit on the positivity?

 

[TheBeard]

Today I learned $8.2M out of a $100M cap is too expensive for a 25 year old power forward who scores 35 a year on a terrible team.

Brady is the 66th highest paid player in terms of AAV, but apparently that's too much money for a guy that, worst case scenario "plateaued" at near 40 goals on average a season.

 

[weastern bias]

Today I learned $8.2M out of a $100M cap is too expensive for a 25 year old power forward who scores 35 a year on a terrible team.

No, a 1st round pick from a basement dweller + other premium assets is much too expensive to pay for a player who provides no positive value outside of scoring 35 goals in a league where scoring 30 goals is no longer premier production, this has nothing to do with his contract

Literally no one mentioned the cap hit guys, the problem is acquisition cost for a player who isn't a difference maker, not his points to dollar ratio

 

[spintops]

Noone would take Josh Norris back?

 

[Hodge]

No, a 1st round pick from a basement dweller + other premium assets is much too expensive to pay for a player who provides no positive value outside of scoring 35 goals in a league where scoring 30 goals is no longer premier production, this has nothing to do with his contract

Literally no one mentioned the cap hit guys, the problem is acquisition cost for a player who isn't a difference maker, not his points to dollar ratio

The post above mine suggests Brady Tkachuk the asset is somehow less valuable than Brady Tkachuk the player as if that contract isn’t guaranteed to continue providing surplus value given Brady’s age and impact.

I probably wouldn’t trade a top 2 pick for him but 6th overall + Musty? Hell yeah.

 

[hohosaregood]

Brady Tkachuk is just too much of a dumbass on and off the ice for me to inflict on Celebrini and Smith

 

[weastern bias]

The post above mine suggests Brady Tkachuk the asset is somehow less valuable than Brady Tkachuk the player as if that contract isn’t guaranteed to continue providing surplus value given Brady’s age and impact.

I probably wouldn’t trade a top 2 pick for him but 6th overall + Musty? Hell yeah.

6th overall plus Musty is horrific value for a player who simply does not contribute to winning, send that package out for a D man, not an all offense winger who doesn't drive play and cheats off the D zone on every shift

Cas' post isn't explicitly saying B Tkachuk is a bad asset because of his contract, I read it as saying you need to evaluate a player acquisition as a transaction of asset values an not exclusively as an acquisition of talent, and Brady Tkachuk simply isn't a valuable enough asset as an on ice performer to justify the outsized asset value he will most definitely return in a trade

He's a good player but not a great player, it would be a mistake to pay the price for him that you could instead use to aquire a great player, it's a waste of what few precious assets we have at our disposal

 

[Juxtaposer]

The post above mine suggests Brady Tkachuk the asset is somehow less valuable than Brady Tkachuk the player as if that contract isn’t guaranteed to continue providing surplus value given Brady’s age and impact.

I probably wouldn’t trade a top 2 pick for him but 6th overall + Musty? Hell yeah.

Giving up a top pick for three years of Brady Tkachuk would be terrible asset management.

 

[TheBigDrunkPanda]

We are one of the lowest scoring teams in hockey, 6th from last in goals for per game, we are not a Brady Tkachuk away from being a fire-wagon

Your mistake is comparing the brothers, it's the same mistake legions of hockey fans make with Brady, Matthew is a high level play driver and is responsible defensively while also producing at a high level, Brady is a power forward who hits and shoots and nothing else

Like you said, Matthew broke out in his 6th season, Brady is currently in his 7th season and has plateaud, he's a point per game winger who doesn't drive play in an era where elite scorers are tallying 120+ points once again, he simply isn't a difference maker and shouldn't be targeted for high value assets

Brady is a complimentary player in the top 4 roll, I agree he won’t carry the team but he’s dangerous enough to keep teams honest and open things up for smith and Mack

 

[Patty Ice]

Noone would take Josh Norris back?

Back where? The hospital?

His uniform is a medical gown.

 

[weastern bias]

Brady is a complimentary player in the top 4 roll, I agree he won’t carry the team but he’s dangerous enough to keep teams honest and open things up for smith and Mack

I agree, he'd be a good addition to the team, just not for the incredibly high value he would cost in a trade, he's not worth it

We're not close to a playoff team, we're still performing like the worst team in the league right now, a prime-aged complimentary piece should not be a trade target for us right now, not at the cost of premium assets anyway

 

[TheBeard]

I agree, he'd be a good addition to the team, just not for the incredibly high value he would cost in a trade, he's not worth it

We're not close to a playoff team, we're still performing like the worst team in the league right now, a prime-aged complimentary piece should not be a trade target for us right now, not at the cost of premium assets anyway

I think at the end of the day we don't know what the trade value is. Every year we as a collective group tend to assume premium talents go for way more than they do while lesser, smaller pieces go for significantly more. I think the disconnect is what we all predict would be what Ottawa is asking for, but anyone claiming Brady wouldn't make our team better is just being foolish.

 

[weastern bias]

I think at the end of the day we don't know what the trade value is. Every year we as a collective group tend to assume premium talents go for way more than they do while lesser, smaller pieces go for significantly more. I think the disconnect is what we all predict would be what Ottawa is asking for, but anyone claiming Brady wouldn't make our team better is just being foolish.

I'm not saying he wouldn't make our team better, adding him would be like air-dropping the player we all hope Musty becomes on to the team only he's hit his ceiling and is already in his physical prime, it would definitely improve the roster

The problem is that he's a big flashy name with a famous family who plays in a Canadian market, if he's on the block there will be a bidding war and it isn't worth it for a team in the basement to send out high value assets to aquire him, Ottawa literally made this same mistake with Alex Debrincat 2 years ago and it cost them dearly, it would be a waste of time, a waste of assets, it wouldn't meaningfully improve our performance in the win column and we would be in a worse position in the long term after shortsightedly trading futures to supplement a present that isn't ready for a turbo-charge, it would legitimately be damaging to our long-term window of opportunity to make that move right now

 

[Grinner]

The only way I see the Sens moving on from him is if he forces their hand. And, if he forces their hand, it's not to come to San Jose.

 

[TheBeard]

I'm not saying he wouldn't make our team better, adding him would be like air-dropping the player we all hope Musty becomes on to the team only he's hit his ceiling and is already in his physical prime, it would definitely improve the roster

The problem is that he's a big flashy name with a famous family who plays in a Canadian market, if he's on the block there will be a bidding war and it isn't worth it for a team in the basement to send out high value assets to aquire him, Ottawa literally made this same mistake with Alex Debrincat 2 years ago and it cost them dearly, it would be a waste of time, a waste of assets, it wouldn't meaningfully improve our performance in the win column and we would be in a worse position in the long term after shortsightedly trading futures to supplement a present that isn't ready for a turbo-charge, it would legitimately be damaging to our long-term window of opportunity to make that move right now

The difference between Brinc and Brady is Alex was a free agent after the year and made it pretty clear he had no intentions of re-signing with Ottawa.

We can all agree that many of our assets, high and low, aren't going to work out with the club. That's the nature of the beast. Guaranteed one of Musty, Hattunen, Dickson, Bystedt and Smith flame out badly. That's usually how it goes. Now, would i give up an unprotected first for Brady? No. Would I give up a top, dunno, 6 protected? Maybe.

 

[Lebanezer]

Back where? The hospital?

His uniform is a medical gown.

It's a shame that he doesn't play for the Ducks or Stars because those 2 things are literally found on many children's medical gowns.

 

[Juxtaposer]

The only way I see the Sens moving on from him is if he forces their hand. And, if he forces their hand, it's not to come to San Jose.

More than that, there's no reason to believe that he would re-sign in SJ when his current contract is up, even if the Sharks offered him more than a fair deal. And we might not even do that, if the thought is to have Celebrini's next deal set the 'ceiling' for AAVs on the team the way NJ did with Hughes.

Again, our core is 17-22 years old right now. There's still lots of growing pains to go through. Adding a volatile element like Brady Tkachuk to the mix who may simply walk in 2.5 years doesn't sound like a good idea to me, given the assets it would take to get him.

 

[TheBeard]

More than that, there's no reason to believe that he would re-sign in SJ when his current contract is up, even if the Sharks offered him more than a fair deal. And we might not even do that, if the thought is to have Celebrini's next deal set the 'ceiling' for AAVs on the team the way NJ did with Hughes.

Again, our core is 17-22 years old right now. There's still lots of growing pains to go through. Adding a volatile element like Brady Tkachuk to the mix who may simply walk in 2.5 years doesn't sound like a good idea to me, given the assets it would take to get him.

I'm curious as to why you don't believe he would re-sign in SJ? By the time his deal is up the entire core now will be just hitting their prime.

 

[Lebanezer]

Why are we in a rush to fill out the roster instead of letting things settle into place? I know this is foreign territory for everyone, but we have a litany of prospects who are going to develop at different speeds. The timeline should uniquely be dictated by the young players in the system, specifically Celebrini, and anyone who can join him as a top line/pairing player. Right now, Macklin is ahead of everyone else. We need Smith, Dickinson, Cagnoni, Musty, Halttunen, '25 1st, Chernsyshov, Bystedt, Graf, Mukhamadullin etc. to establish themselves, or not. And in the last year of Macklin's ELC we can talk about adding players to a burgeoning core. It's not outside the realm of possibility that in 2 years we can have a lineup that looks like this:

Eklund-Celebrini-Zetterlund
Musty/UFA stopgap-Smith-Toffoli
Graf-Bystedt-Chernyshov/UFA stopgap
Kunin-Goodrow-Cardwell

Dickinson-Liljegren
Cagnoni-UFA stopgap
Mukhamadullin-UFA stopgap

At that point, if you're not satisfied with the development or performance of any guys, then you can look for people via trade. Right now, it just seems like people want to skip steps. It's not about getting into the playoffs as soon as possible, it's about avoiding what's happening with teams like Detroit and Ottawa. If that means we need to ride out some more crappy years to get someone like Matthew Schaefer or Porter Martone while letting our current prospects develop, then so be it.

 

[Shark Finn]

Sharks are in no position to trade for someone who's soon looking for the big payday. For example, see what Kings did with Fiala and PLD and learn.

 

[Alaskanice]

Why are we in a rush to fill out the roster instead of letting things settle into place? I know this is foreign territory for everyone, but we have a litany of prospects who are going to develop at different speeds. The timeline should uniquely be dictated by the young players in the system, specifically Celebrini, and anyone who can join him as a top line/pairing player. Right now, Macklin is ahead of everyone else. We need Smith, Dickinson, Cagnoni, Musty, Halttunen, '25 1st, Chernsyshov, Bystedt, Graf, Mukhamadullin etc. to establish themselves, or not. And in the last year of Macklin's ELC we can talk about adding players to a burgeoning core. It's not outside the realm of possibility that in 2 years we can have a lineup that looks like this:

Eklund-Celebrini-Zetterlund
Musty/UFA stopgap-Smith-Toffoli
Graf-Bystedt-Chernyshov/UFA stopgap
Kunin-Goodrow-Cardwell

Dickinson-Liljegren
Cagnoni-UFA stopgap
Mukhamadullin-UFA stopgap

At that point, if you're not satisfied with the development or performance of any guys, then you can look for people via trade. Right now, it just seems like people want to skip steps. It's not about getting into the playoffs as soon as possible, it's about avoiding what's happening with teams like Detroit and Ottawa. If that means we need to ride out some more crappy years to get someone like Matthew Schaefer or Porter Martone while letting our current prospects develop, then so be it.

Not getting into the playoffs is lost revenue. Remember, professional sports are a business.
I also have a part of me that wants to wait and see how a player such as Musty turns out but if I can get a player who has been in the NHL and can help our young guys just by showing them the ropes and being the physical, nasty and very talented player, do it.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Why are we in a rush to fill out the roster instead of letting things settle into place? I know this is foreign territory for everyone, but we have a litany of prospects who are going to develop at different speeds. The timeline should uniquely be dictated by the young players in the system, specifically Celebrini, and anyone who can join him as a top line/pairing player. Right now, Macklin is ahead of everyone else. We need Smith, Dickinson, Cagnoni, Musty, Halttunen, '25 1st, Chernsyshov, Bystedt, Graf, Mukhamadullin etc. to establish themselves, or not. And in the last year of Macklin's ELC we can talk about adding players to a burgeoning core. It's not outside the realm of possibility that in 2 years we can have a lineup that looks like this:

Eklund-Celebrini-Zetterlund
Musty/UFA stopgap-Smith-Toffoli
Graf-Bystedt-Chernyshov/UFA stopgap
Kunin-Goodrow-Cardwell

Dickinson-Liljegren
Cagnoni-UFA stopgap
Mukhamadullin-UFA stopgap

At that point, if you're not satisfied with the development or performance of any guys, then you can look for people via trade. Right now, it just seems like people want to skip steps. It's not about getting into the playoffs as soon as possible, it's about avoiding what's happening with teams like Detroit and Ottawa. If that means we need to ride out some more crappy years to get someone like Matthew Schaefer or Porter Martone while letting our current prospects develop, then so be it.

I think it's most especially because good wingers are always available by trade that there's no urgency to make the "reverse Timo Meier" trade right now. Once the Celebrini/Smith/Dickinson/Askarov/2025 1st/etc. age group has gotten established in the NHL, then you go after a Brady Tkachuk kind of mercenary player.

Eventually, some of the "second tier" prospects we have will become trade chips, but they'll have more value once they've hit the NHL anyway.