Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[weastern bias]

This is still a contender for last place, folks

We have beaten ONE team that is a lock to make the playoffs this year and it took an own goal in a 1-0 game with a scorned former goalie making 44 saves in a revenge shutout to do so

We're picking top-5 guys, there's nothing to worry about

With Ottawa potentially trading players, I would like to revisit the fantasy of trading for Brady Tkachuk and playing him on the top line alongside Celebrini.

He's gonna cost so much more than he's worth, he has an overinflated value around the league, I wouldn't be willing to pay into the prices the bidding war will necessitate

If we're trading premium assets it needs to be for a top pair defenseman, not for a complimentary goal scoring winger who doesn't drive play and doesn't play any defense, Tkachuk would be a nice player to add but the acquisition cost makes him a luxury right now

 

[Juxtaposer]

Brady Tkachuk kinda sucks, no interest unless it's for non-core pieces (no Celebrini/Smith/Askarov/Dickinson/Eklund/2025 1st).

 

[TheBeard]

According to our board, there are 25 good players in the league and everyone else “sucks”.

Amazing.

Dude you read my mind, I’d be ok with doing a straight up Musty for Brady trade

Ottawa wouldn’t but I would for sure sweeten the pot. Musty, Bystedt and a 2nd

 

[Alaskanice]

With Ottawa potentially trading players, I would like to revisit the fantasy of trading for Brady Tkachuk and playing him on the top line alongside Celebrini.

I second that fantasy.

 

[Gecklund]

Because they are stuck in red wings/buffalo land endless rebuild status, they are going to want a top prospect musty fits that bill


The Sens signed Korpisalo to a huge contract they’ll do anything

I think you’re looking more at Will Smith than Quentin Musty if you’re talking a one for one for Brady Tkachuk. You know that package we got for Timo? Young roster player, first, and top prospect? It’s that plus another quality piece for Brady.

 

[weastern bias]

According to our board, there are 25 good players in the league and everyone else “sucks”.

Amazing.


Ottawa wouldn’t but I would for sure sweeten the pot. Musty, Bystedt and a 2nd

Brady Tkachuk is not a premier talent, he's a good player who is over paid, over hyped and over heralded due to the biases of the hockey world (family legacy, captain of a Canadian team, physical player, big personality)

He is also the rare kind of player who has his value overinflated by possession metrics because he generates high danger shots at a uniquely high volume but he is actually very poor at capitalizing on that shot volume and converting them into goals, he's a consistent leader amongst shots on goal but compared to his high volume peers he also shoots a considerably lower percentage on his shots, the nerdy I-only-read-charts take on that is that he's unlucky but he does this every single year

He also doesn't play defense, doesn't drive play for his line, isn't a high level playmaker and has zero playoff experience yet he has spent his whole career being lauded with praise for being a great leader and having all of his worst qualities swept under the rug, he has never been confronted with his short comings so he has never needed to improve on them

He's going to return a big package in a trade and it will be a mistake for the acquiring team, he's a fine player but he's valued like he's some cornerstone of a team, he's much closer to being just another guy than some franchise building block

 

[Juxtaposer]

Brady Tkachuk is not a premier talent, he's a good player who is over paid, over hyped and over heralded due to the biases of the hockey world (family legacy, captain of a Canadian team, physical player, big personality)

He is also the rare kind of player who has his value overinflated by possession metrics because he generates high danger shots at a uniquely high volume but he is actually very poor at capitalizing on that shot volume and converting them into goals, he's a consistent leader amongst shots on goal but compared to his high volume peers he also shoots a considerably lower percentage on his shots, the nerdy I-only-read-charts take on that is that he's unlucky but he does this every single year

He also doesn't play defense, doesn't drive play for his line, isn't a high level playmaker and has zero playoff experience yet he has spent his whole career being lauded with praise for being a great leader and having all of his worst qualities swept under the rug, he has never been confronted with his short comings so he has never needed to improve on them

He's going to return a big package in a trade and it will be a mistake for the acquiring team, he's a fine player but he's valued like he's some cornerstone of a team, he's much closer to being just another guy than some franchise building block

The only people who think Brady Tkachuk is a great player are ones who fetishize "physicality" and also don't watch the Senators.

 

[TheBeard]

Brady Tkachuk is not a premier talent, he's a good player who is over paid, over hyped and over heralded due to the biases of the hockey world (family legacy, captain of a Canadian team, physical player, big personality)

He is also the rare kind of player who has his value overinflated by possession metrics because he generates high danger shots at a uniquely high volume but he is actually very poor at capitalizing on that shot volume and converting them into goals, he's a consistent leader amongst shots on goal but compared to his high volume peers he also shoots a considerably lower percentage on his shots, the nerdy I-only-read-charts take on that is that he's unlucky but he does this every single year

He also doesn't play defense, doesn't drive play for his line, isn't a high level playmaker and has zero playoff experience yet he has spent his whole career being lauded with praise for being a great leader and having all of his worst qualities swept under the rug, he has never been confronted with his short comings so he has never needed to improve on them

He's going to return a big package in a trade and it will be a mistake for the acquiring team, he's a fine player but he's valued like he's some cornerstone of a team, he's much closer to being just another guy than some franchise building block

I’ll take a proven 25 year old 35-40 goal scoring PPG playing shit-disturber over hoping a bunch more lottery tickets. He doesn’t need to be a leader here. He’s already underpaid considering how quickly contracts are and will continue to rise during the duration of his contract.

 

[Alaskanice]

I’ll take a proven 25 year old 35-40 goal scoring PPG playing shit-disturber over hoping a bunch more lottery tickets. He doesn’t need to be a leader here. He’s already underpaid considering how quickly contracts are and will continue to rise during the duration of his contract.

I would as well. I think he’d fit in here. Do what he does and not have so much pressure bestowed on him.

The only people who think Brady Tkachuk is a great player are ones who fetishize "physicality" and also don't watch the Senators.

That’s me.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I don't know why Ottawa would move Tkachuk unless they're getting a haul. A haul that the Sharks should not pay due to the timing of it all. But if they made someone like Sanderson or Chabot available, it may be worth looking into.

 

[weastern bias]

I’ll take a proven 25 year old 35-40 goal scoring PPG playing shit-disturber over hoping a bunch more lottery tickets. He doesn’t need to be a leader here. He’s already underpaid considering how quickly contracts are and will continue to rise during the duration of his contract.

Don't get me wrong, I'd welcome his talent, it's the acquisition cost that makes him a bad target for San Jose

We need a player like him, but we absolutely can not be sending out high level picks or prospects for a player who is not a true difference maker, not in year one of the rebuild while we still have a bottom-of-the-league caliber roster

If we're trading any of our most important assets (1st round picks or high value prospects, which any Tkachuk trade would require) it MUST be for an impact defenseman or for a forward who truly drives play and makes a difference to a team, Brady Tkachuk is not that player, the only teams that should be targeting him are teams that are already good, he will not a make a bad team into a good team, his entire career proves as much

 

[TheBigDrunkPanda]

According to our board, there are 25 good players in the league and everyone else “sucks”.

Amazing.


Ottawa wouldn’t but I would for sure sweeten the pot. Musty, Bystedt and a 2nd

His contract expires in 3 years so there’s some devaluation in that, also he’s not pastranak or drissatil. I’d imagine Ottawa might want a goalie or Dman instead of 2 forwards. Isn’t Chabot in the block too?

 

[weastern bias]

I would as well. I think he’d fit in here. Do what he does and not have so much pressure bestowed on him.


That’s me.

We're literally a worse team than Ottawa, he'd have MORE pressure to perform here, lol

 

[Pinkfloyd]

We're literally a worse team than Ottawa, he'd have MORE pressure to perform here, lol

If Tkachuk was in the mold of a Joe Thornton, it would be worth a lot of consideration but he's not that. He's a different sort of valuable player that we wouldn't be ready to compete with yet. Not while our blue line is still needing a pretty drastic makeover.

 

[TheBeard]

His contract expires in 3 years so there’s some devaluation in that, also he’s not pastranak or drissatil. I’d imagine Ottawa might want a goalie or Dman instead of 2 forwards. Isn’t Chabot in the block too?

Chabot is always on th block it seems, and it's starting to look like he'd return little to no value other than just moving his contract off the books. I would take his contract as well if it meant a decrease on the trade value of Brady. I think the team can swallow 16 a year for the next three before they have to start making tough financial decisions.

I'd even be willing to give up Shakir. I don't have a lot of faith in him anymore. I wouldn't move Dickinson or Cagnoni (although I don't hate the idea of trading him at such a high value now because the hype around him may be impossible to live up to).

We're literally a worse team than Ottawa, he'd have MORE pressure to perform here, lol

I'm not sure that's true. Ottawa has been expected to be a playoff team for a couple years now and haven't come close. The organization as a whole has just been disastrous, but I don't even think that's because of the team on the ice.

 

[OverTheLine]

Yeah, this team requires a decent defensemen way more than it needs another high-end forward. We can't even really gauge how close or far we are into this rebuild stage because our defense is so atrocious it brings the entire team down with it. If we magically had a #1 defensemen fall into our lap, I wouldn't be surprised if we suddenly were a bubble team competing for a wildcard spot. Or we still might be a bottom feeder until the kids get more experience under them. I have genuinely no idea, because we spend most games hemmed in our own zone because of an inability to consistently break the puck out from the back end. Makes it near impossible to tell.

 

[weastern bias]

Chabot is always on th block it seems, and it's starting to look like he'd return little to no value other than just moving his contract off the books. I would take his contract as well if it meant a decrease on the trade value of Brady. I think the team can swallow 16 a year for the next three before they have to start making tough financial decisions.

I'd even be willing to give up Shakir. I don't have a lot of faith in him anymore. I wouldn't move Dickinson or Cagnoni (although I don't hate the idea of trading him at such a high value now because the hype around him may be impossible to live up to).


I'm not sure that's true. Ottawa has been expected to be a playoff team for a couple years now and haven't come close. The organization as a whole has just been disastrous, but I don't even think that's because of the team on the ice.

Chabot would have been a better target before we added Walman and Liljegren, he's a good puck mover and point scorer but he's a pretty poor defensive player, I also think he's likely to cost more than the acquisition would be worth because a d man with that amount of talent doesn't get traded very often

Ottawa has more pressure in terms of being a Canadian media bubble, sure, that's the only reason anyone would have thought their hilariously bad team is a threat to make the playoffs, but he would have more pressure to be a performer here as he would have even less support from adequate teammates to take up any slack for him on a team as bad as San Jose, we'd be expecting 40 goals from him to justify accelerating the rebuild with his addition, and as a player who has been an anointed "leader" and "franchise building block" basically since he was a rookie he's also going to be putting thet pressure on himself even though he doesn't appear to actually have the ability to elevate a roster to heights any greater than the draft lottery

 

[TheBeard]

Chabot would have been a better target before we added Walman and Liljegren, he's a good puck mover and point scorer but he's a pretty poor defensive player, I also think he's likely to cost more than the acquisition would be worth because a d man with that amount of talent doesn't get traded very often

Ottawa has more pressure in terms of being a Canadian media bubble, sure, that's the only reason anyone would have thought their hilariously bad team is a threat to make the playoffs, but he would have more pressure to be a performer here as he would have even less support from adequate teammates to take up any slack for him on a team as bad as San Jose, we'd be expecting 40 goals from him to justify accelerating the rebuild with his addition, and as a player who has been an anointed "leader" and "franchise building block" basically since he was a rookie he's also going to be putting thet pressure on himself even though he doesn't appear to actually have the ability to elevate a roster to heights any greater than the draft lottery

I don't see any reason why he shouldn't score 40 alongside Celebrini. Stutzle is a good player but not in the same realm. Matthew didn't really break out until his 6th season to go PPG and he did it alongside at the time one of the heaviest first lines in hockey. He also didn't have much playoff success in Calgary before things changed on a better team. I honestly don't see us being that far off from what Florida was 5 years ago. Not record-wise, but a high-scoring, bad defense squad.

 

[weastern bias]

I don't see any reason why he shouldn't score 40 alongside Celebrini. Stutzle is a good player but not in the same realm. Matthew didn't really break out until his 6th season to go PPG and he did it alongside at the time one of the heaviest first lines in hockey. He also didn't have much playoff success in Calgary before things changed on a better team. I honestly don't see us being that far off from what Florida was 5 years ago. Not record-wise, but a high-scoring, bad defense squad.

We are one of the lowest scoring teams in hockey, 6th from last in goals for per game, we are not a Brady Tkachuk away from being a fire-wagon

Your mistake is comparing the brothers, it's the same mistake legions of hockey fans make with Brady, Matthew is a high level play driver and is responsible defensively while also producing at a high level, Brady is a power forward who hits and shoots and nothing else

Like you said, Matthew broke out in his 6th season, Brady is currently in his 7th season and has plateaud, he's a point per game winger who doesn't drive play in an era where elite scorers are tallying 120+ points once again, he simply isn't a difference maker and shouldn't be targeted for high value assets

 

[gaucholoco3]

Had some time to sleep on it to make sure I’m not overreacting, but we should really give Celebrini the McD/Crosby treatment and slap a C on the kid’s chest.

I think they should absolutely do this. It would have to be combined with Logan admitting to being officially LTIRetired. I also don’t know if Celebrini has a chance to be the youngest captain ever but if so that would be cool.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Frankly I just have little desire to trade for anyone with the Senators stink on them. Obviously I love Sanderson and I'd certainly have time for Stutzle (I'd be willing to trade Smith+ for either) but those are the only two Senators they absolutely shouldn't move. I'd have some interest in Batherson if there was a trade on the table around Musty or Mukh. But that's kinda it.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Chabot would have been a better target before we added Walman and Liljegren, he's a good puck mover and point scorer but he's a pretty poor defensive player, I also think he's likely to cost more than the acquisition would be worth because a d man with that amount of talent doesn't get traded very often

Ottawa has more pressure in terms of being a Canadian media bubble, sure, that's the only reason anyone would have thought their hilariously bad team is a threat to make the playoffs, but he would have more pressure to be a performer here as he would have even less support from adequate teammates to take up any slack for him on a team as bad as San Jose, we'd be expecting 40 goals from him to justify accelerating the rebuild with his addition, and as a player who has been an anointed "leader" and "franchise building block" basically since he was a rookie he's also going to be putting thet pressure on himself even though he doesn't appear to actually have the ability to elevate a roster to heights any greater than the draft lottery

I still think Chabot is a legitimate trade target when the odds of Ferraro going out in the process are pretty good. Just depends on the price but they'd likely ask too much. I wouldn't do Tkachuk on his own but I would do Tkachuk with Chabot if it came at a discount but I don't know what the assets in that sort of trade would look like.

 

[TheBeard]

We are one of the lowest scoring teams in hockey, 6th from last in goals for per game, we are not a Brady Tkachuk away from being a fire-wagon

Your mistake is comparing the brothers, it's the same mistake legions of hockey fans make with Brady, Matthew is a high level play driver and is responsible defensively while also producing at a high level, Brady is a power forward who hits and shoots and nothing else

Like you said, Matthew broke out in his 6th season, Brady is currently in his 7th season and has plateaud, he's a point per game winger who doesn't drive play in an era where elite scorers are tallying 120+ points once again, he simply isn't a difference maker and shouldn't be targeted for high value assets

Claiming a 25 year old whose point total or goal total has gone up in every year and is on pace for another career high in both has “plateaued” is such an absurd statement.

Also, who said anything about elite? I’m just simply stating making definitive statements about any player 25 or under is just a naive perspective, and the proof of that is literally the trajectory of his own brother. William Nylander is another.

 

[weastern bias]

Claiming a 25 year old whose point total or goal total has gone up in every year and is on pace for another career high in both has “plateaued” is such an absurd statement.

Also, who said anything about elite? I’m just simply stating making definitive statements about any player 25 or under is just a naive perspective, and the proof of that is literally the trajectory of his own brother. William Nylander is another.

By all age curves a 25 year old forward is done developing and improving the vast majority of the time, Brady Tkachuk is at his peak right now and he is continuing to maintain a functionally identical point per game pace for the 3rd season in a row now

2023 - 1.01 p/g, 0.42 g/g
2024 - 0.91 p/g, 0.45 g/g
2025 (through 19 games) - 1.05 p/g, 0.47 g/g

That's literally a statistical plateau, he's been the same player for 3 years and isn't getting any better

Sure, you have the rare case of a player who peaks at a later age like Joe Pavelski, but he had a uniquely high hockey IQ and added elements to his game incrementally year-over-year, Brady Tkachuk coasts off of his talent and physical tools and at this point he's grown into the player he's going to be, 25 year olds aren't young players, they're right in the middle of their prime and essentially at their peak

 

[weastern bias]

I brought up elite scores because all Tkachuk does is score and he does not do so at an elite level, yet due to his perception he will return a trade package as though he were an elite player

He simply isn't worth the cost of acquiring him, let him be someone else's mistake