Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[RayMartyniukTotems]

I'd

If they get Schaefer this year, they're ready to go imo. Walman and Liljegren should still be here in 3 years, Dickinson and Schaefer will have made the NHL and then some combo of Mukh/Cagnoni/Pohlkamp/Thrun/Thompson may fill out the bottom. Don't think it's a particularly crazy projection.

Schaefer-Walman
Dickinson-Liljegren
Mukh-Cagnoni
Thrun/Thompson

I'd add Swedish draft choices Wallenius,Havelid and maybe Landen to the mix too

 

[Barrie22]

Personally don’t think smith will be our solution at 2C. Fantilli or Carlsson would have been.

Smith is right with fantilli and Carlsson in points in his rookie season vs there 2nd seasons. All 3 are on terrible teams. All 3 are terrible at faceoffs.

I just do not see the clear advantage that those 2 have over Smith, other then coaching giving the other 2 top opportunities right from the get go.

 

[coooldude]

Smith is right with fantilli and Carlsson in points in his rookie season vs there 2nd seasons. All 3 are on terrible teams. All 3 are terrible at faceoffs.

I just do not see the clear advantage that those 2 have over Smith, other then coaching giving the other 2 top opportunities right from the get go.

I dunno man, I would absolutely swap Carlsson for Smith today.

Fantilli, I'm not so sure.

 

[Jargon]

Sharks don't have enough depth, especially at D. They need to tank for one more season and let the D men start showing up.

I hear you but I personally have no interest in cheering for their losses. Maybe if it’s after the trade deadline and we’re bottom 5 and I’d rather they be bottom 3, but I am having far more fun cheering for their wins this year than I did for their losses next year.

If they have a good year because Mack and Smith have started to figure it all out, that just bodes well for the future. Go trade for Jiricek and have a future top 4 of Dickinson / Jiricek | Muhk / Cagnoni - no tank necessary!

 

[tiburon12]

I dunno man, I would absolutely swap Carlsson for Smith today.

Fantilli, I'm not so sure.

CBJ'd

 

[OrrNumber4]

I'd

I'd add Swedish draft choices Wallenius,Havelid and maybe Landen to the mix too

So far, Havelid and Landen are trending to bust. Wallenius was a late 2nd; on average that translates into not-an-NHLer.

At this point, I feel reasonably confident that three years from now:
Celebrini + Eklund will be first-liners
Smith will center a second-line
Dickinson/Mukhamadullin can at least be top-4 defensemen

In addition, I'd be safe assuming that the Sharks get another top-6 forward and top-4 defenseman from the rest of their field.

That still leaves a lot of holes; two top-6 forwards and another top-4 defensemen...and note that there's no defenseman I'd be comfortable penciling in on a top-pairing.

 

[Zarzh]

We dont need to tank on purpose. trading future assets to win today would be asinine, but losing in order to draft high is equally asinine. Yes, getting another superstar would be great in the long term. But, building a winning culture is, to me, more important. Winning begets winning. its very very hard to turn around a titanic with kids.

The sharks have a nice cache of likely NHL level prospects now. They have Pohlcamp, the leading scoring dman (Tied) on the top NCAA program in the country and a +13. They have BDE, the leading OHL scoring Dman (in Points/gm by alot). They have Musty, who is cruising near 2 pts per game on a pretty weak OHL team, clearly too good for that level. They have Graf who is Tied for the AHL scoring lead. They have Cagnoni who is 2nd in the AHL in D scoring.

Not to mention Cherny who hasnt played yet, Gush, Cardwell, and bordeleau who may make the leap, and a handful of other reasonable prospects in LSW, Lund, and others.

And of course, the best goalie prospect in the world.

And of course, Celly, Smith ,Eklund, Thompson, etc at hte NHL level already.

Do we realllllly need to suck in order to add one more? Is it worth tanking, and continuing to build a losing culture to add one more star?

We may well end up being in the bottom even without purposely tanking, but it makes no sense to try to lose. The kids need to smell blood. They need to taste victory. To score OT winners, and complete crazy 3rd period comebacks. They need to be rewarded for good details. Tanking achieves none of these invaluable experiences.

Should they move current assets to continue acquiring picks? Yes. Of course they should get max value for the assets that dont fit into the long term plan or assets that may depart eithe way for nothing. Should they deal blackwood if they get a very good price? YES, of course. Granny? Yes, too (although Id like a resign in the summer). But, trading them so that the team can lose more? Terrible. Signing crappy UFA's to big money deals in order to stink? No way.

In the next year or two, the current prospect pool will be ready to step in. We need to start prepping for that turnaround now, not for 5 years from now.

A losing culture is just an excuse people who can't build teams use. It turns around quickly when you control the center of the ice and defend the net.

Schaefer and Martone are unfair players and you won't win anything which matters without more unfair players.

 

[wickedwitch]

Smith is right with fantilli and Carlsson in points in his rookie season vs there 2nd seasons. All 3 are on terrible teams. All 3 are terrible at faceoffs.

I just do not see the clear advantage that those 2 have over Smith, other then coaching giving the other 2 top opportunities right from the get go.

???? Smith has half the points per game that Fantilli or Carlsson have.

That's not to say that Smith will end up the worst of them, but I wouldn't use point totals to make that argument.

 

[Desert Eagle]

So far, Havelid and Landen are trending to bust.

Landen is 19 y/o and 5th round pick and already bust? But why?
He plays on the third pair in pro league, always in Swedish junior team. Last game he had 20:59 TOI. 18:07 and 14:39 before.
I see some potential there as a physical defensive RD for third pair in NHL.

 

[vortexy]

Saw this on twitter from a hockey analytics guy and he has some crazy stats on Macklin so far, 1st amongst forwards in controlled entries (9.1). 5th amongst forwards in open-ice dekes (beating defenders 1v1), 1st among forwards in puck battle wins. The full thread has clips that show Celebrini displaying the traits

https://x.com/i/web/status/1858926572989780049

 

[OrrNumber4]

Landen is 19 y/o and 5th round pick and already bust? But why?
He plays on the third pair in pro league, always in Swedish junior team. Last game he had 20:59 TOI. 18:07 and 14:39 before.
I see some potential there as a physical defensive RD for third pair in NHL.

He's trending there. Generally, mid-round picks and later need to start rapidly making big strides in their game. Landen has gone back a step, from the SHL to the Allsvenskan.

 

[Jargon]

Saw this on twitter from a hockey analytics guy and he has some crazy stats on Macklin so far, 1st amongst forwards in controlled entries (9.1). 5th amongst forwards in open-ice dekes (beating defenders 1v1), 1st among forwards in puck battle wins. The full thread has clips that show Celebrini displaying the traits

https://x.com/i/web/status/1858926572989780049

The more I watch how he’s played against grown-ass men as a barely-19 year old the more the whole “he’s close but not quite generational” talk that scouts used when discussing Celebrini seems bogus to me. The kid is insanely good. I know it’s early and a lot can still happen, but Celebrini is going to absolutely dominate the league on both ends of the ice and I don’t even think that time is too far away. We got so f***ing lucky.

 

[Lebanezer]

The more I watch how he’s played against grown-ass men as a barely-19 year old the more the whole “he’s close but not quite generational” talk that scouts used when discussing Celebrini seems bogus to me. The kid is insanely good. I know it’s early and a lot can still happen, but Celebrini is going to absolutely dominate the league on both ends of the ice and I don’t even think that time is too far away. We got so f***ing lucky.

He's barely 18 lol.

 

[Jargon]

He's barely 18 lol.

Oh right, Smith is 19.

…Jesus.

 

[tiburon12]

The more I watch how he’s played against grown-ass men as a barely-19 year old the more the whole “he’s close but not quite generational” talk that scouts used when discussing Celebrini seems bogus to me. The kid is insanely good. I know it’s early and a lot can still happen, but Celebrini is going to absolutely dominate the league on both ends of the ice and I don’t even think that time is too far away. We got so f***ing lucky.

I just sent that X thread to a buddy with the same exact thought: We are really lucky

 

[Desert Eagle]

He's trending there. Generally, mid-round picks and later need to start rapidly making big strides in their game. Landen has gone back a step, from the SHL to the Allsvenskan.

2023/24 (SHL): 35 games, 0 points, "-15", 9:44 ATOI.
2024/25 (HA): 15 games, 5 (0+5) points, "+7", 17:42 ATOI.

How can we say that he is trending to be bust? This season is better than last even if we know that leagues are different. He is physical D, he needs more time to develop. He is just 19.
Besides, how can we realize that he is bust? Again, he is DD, he will not score points or make highlight moves. Scout reports are rare about him, but he always plays on strong Sweden junior team.

 

[OrrNumber4]

2023/24 (SHL): 35 games, 0 points, "-15", 9:44 ATOI.
2024/25 (HA): 15 games, 5 (0+5) points, "+7", 17:42 ATOI.

How can we say that he is trending to be bust? This season is better than last even if we know that leagues are different. He is physical D, he needs more time to develop. He is just 19.
Besides, how can we realize that he is bust? Again, he is DD, he will not score points or make highlight moves. Scout reports are rare about him, but he always plays on strong Sweden junior team.

The way to think about it is that on average, 40-50 players make the NHL from each draft. A player like Landen, drafted at ~130, has a hill to climb. Essentially, he has five years to go from 130 to top-50. A year and change later is he moving up at all in a redraft? If a team offered you a sixth rounder in 2025 for him, shouldn't you take it?

 

[Desert Eagle]

The way to think about it is that on average, 40-50 players make the NHL from each draft. A player like Landen, drafted at ~130, has a hill to climb. Essentially, he has five years to go from 130 to top-50. A year and change later is he moving up at all in a redraft? If a team offered you a sixth rounder in 2025 for him, shouldn't you take it?

I wouldn’t take it, because not often guys from 6th round play on junior team like Sweden.
Maybe I’m wrong, but I really don’t see any reason yet to call him bust so early.
Havelid looks like a bust, but not Landen.

 

[OrrNumber4]

I wouldn’t take it, because not often guys from 6th round play on junior team like Sweden.
Maybe I’m wrong, but I really don’t see any reason yet to call him bust so early.
Havelid looks like a bust, but not Landen.

For me, the big red flag is the horrible stat line in his D+1 season, and now being in a second tier league in his D+2 season.

Progression is good; regression is a very bad sign.

 

[Dicdonya]

The more I watch how he’s played against grown-ass men as a barely-19 year old the more the whole “he’s close but not quite generational” talk that scouts used when discussing Celebrini seems bogus to me. The kid is insanely good. I know it’s early and a lot can still happen, but Celebrini is going to absolutely dominate the league on both ends of the ice and I don’t even think that time is too far away. We got so f***ing lucky.

What does he do that is generational?

I was not as high on Celebrini as others were before the draft, and I will say that after watching him play he has absolutely erased my concerns about what sort of prospect he is, and I now firmly believe he will be a stud, but I still fail to see why you think him being almost but not quite generational is bogus.

He has a very well rounded game, and thus seems like as he grows he will be a dominant player, but I still do not see that raw unteachable skill that separates the Celebrini type studs from the McDavid, Crosby, Ovechkin generational type players.

I think he will be more in the range of a Barkov level player than a Mcdavid, Crosby type player, where he is absolutely one of the top end centers in the league, and you can absolutely win a cup with him if he is your number 1, but I don't think he'll be consistently in the running for points leader, or goal leader, etc.

Now maybe you define generational a little differently or something, and if so maybe you include more players in your group of generational type players, at which point Celebrini might be in that group, but if we are going with the idea that generational players are the guys that do stuff like potentially break Gretzkys goal record, or push over the 1500 pt threshold while also winning cups and several yearly awards, I dunno I just don't think Celebrini winds up in that sort of company.

 

[Erep]

What does he do that is generational?

What does Crosby do that is generational?

(The answer is more or less all of the things that twitter thread says Celebrini is already among the league leaders in per-game statistics.)

It's early, but I think it is fair to say he is trending toward best player to enter the league since McDavid, other than Makar (still drafted 7 years ago), but I think it is fair to separate forwards and defensemen for this.