Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[weastern bias]

"Thin forward group" with Pavelski at 3C. Meanwhile the 2016 team was rolling out Tierney, Spaling, Zubrus and Melker Karlsson.

Pavelski was actually playing 1LW on that team, your lines are wrong

They came into the season running:

Hertl-Thornton-Burns

Until Hertl got his knee taken out by Dustin Brown, at which point the top line became:

Pavelski-Thornton-Burns

That was his 41 goal season, and it was around the time he was shifting towards being a winger full time

Never mind we were playing Matt Nieto on the 3rd line and Mike Brown in a full time role, but go on about how deep that team was

 

[Hodge]

You're just trying to somehow prove that a 0.5PPG NHL player of over 200 games is a career AHLer because you said he was in a post one time

Clearly 32 teams are run by idiots then for allowing this bonafide NHLer to slip through their fingers.

Pavelski was actually playing 1LW on that team, your lines are wrong

They came into the season running:

Hertl-Thornton-Burns

Until Hertl got his knee taken out by Dustin Brown, at which point the top line became:

Pavelski-Thornton-Burns

That was his 41 goal season, and it was around the time he was shifting towards being a winger full time

Never mind we were playing Matt Nieto on the 3rd line and Mike Brown in a full time role, but go on about how deep that team was

2013-14: .677 pts%, +49 GD
2015-16: .598 pts%, +31 GD
2018-19: .616 pts%, +28 GD

It's obvious which team was the best of those 3. It took a run of insanely bad luck for them to lose in 7 to the eventual champions.

 

[weastern bias]

2013-14: .677 pts%, +49 GD
2015-16: .598 pts%, +31 GD
2018-19: .616 pts%, +28 GD

It's obvious which team was the best of those 3. It took a run of insanely bad luck for them to lose in 7 to the eventual champions.

Sure, if you only value regular season results when evaluating the quality of a team, I also thought the 2014 team was really good after 82 games

It didn't actually take a lot of bad luck, what it took was one injury on the defense for the team to have a sub-playoff caliber backend and they couldn't hold their own after Vlasic went down

They also had a joke of a coach who didn't recognize they needed to shift Burns back to defense mid series and rode his pro-cess straight into the iceberg, instead his brilliant tactical adjustment was to start a rookie Alex Stalock in a high leverage playoff game on the road, the coach is part of the team too

The 2014 team was very top heavy and thin and incredibly flawed, the 2019 team was the deepest Sharks team in franchise history but was sunk by minor league level goaltending and injuries to the 1C, 1RW, and 1A/1B Dman at the same time at the end of a playoff series on the road, also against the eventual champions

 

[Hodge]

Sure, if you only value regular season results when evaluating the quality of a team, I also thought the 2014 team was really good after 82 games

It didn't actually take a lot of bad luck, what it took was one injury on the defense for the team to have a sub-playoff caliber backend and they couldn't hold their own after Vlasic went down

They also had a joke of a coach who didn't recognize they needed to shift Burns back to defense mid series and rode his pro-cess straight into the iceberg, instead his brilliant tactical adjustment was to start a rookie Alex Stalock in a high leverage playoff game on the road, the coach is part of the team too

The 2014 team was very top heavy and thin and incredibly flawed, the 2019 team was the deepest Sharks team in franchise history but was sunk by minor league level goaltending and injuries to the 1C, 1RW, and 1A/1B Dman at the same time at the end of a playoff series on the road

Winning the Cup is the only thing that matters in the playoffs. Losing in the 3rd round vs. 1st is almost entirely meaningless (apart from ticket revenue) given the NHL's ridiculous sham of a playoff format that routinely pits 2 of the 3 or 4 best teams in the league against each other in round 1. Which is exactly what happened to the Sharks in 2014.

It wasn't just the Vlasic injury. There was also the terrible non-call on the Justin Williams goal in Game 6 where he pushed Stalock into the net. Also just the fact that reverse sweeps basically never happen in pro sports.

That 2019 team was incredibly more flawed. Literally the worst goaltending in the league playing behind two one-dimensional offensemen who gave up as much as they created plus they lacked a legitimate 1C. No chance of winning the Cup with that many red flags.

 

[weastern bias]

Winning the Cup is the only thing that matters in the playoffs. Losing in the 3rd round vs. 1st is almost entirely meaningless (apart from ticket revenue) given the NHL's ridiculous sham of a playoff format that routinely pits 2 of the 3 or 4 best teams in the league against each other in round 1. Which is exactly what happened to the Sharks in 2014.

It wasn't just the Vlasic injury. There was also the terrible non-call on the Justin Williams goal in Game 6 where he pushed Stalock into the net. Also just the fact that reverse sweeps basically never happen in pro sports.

That 2019 team was incredibly more flawed. Literally the worst goaltending in the league playing behind two one-dimensional offensemen who gave up as much as they created plus they lacked a legitimate 1C. No chance of winning the Cup with that many red flags.

Your argument sounds a lot like "results are just luck, actually", but I don't buy a team that could play Karlsson, Burns and Vlasic on separate D pairs is not as deep as a team that iced Brad Stuart for over 20 minutes in game 1 of the playoffs

2019 was definitely full-send, all-go, defense is for nerds, actually, and they rode that to an offense tied for 2nd in goals for, they had an identity and they lived up to it

2014 had an identity of a tough and hard nosed team that could hold their own with the big bad teams of the moment, and the second the Kings, the team they existed to beat at that time, threw a counter-punch they completely imploded and shit all over themselves, they were largely a mirage built on an eventual Norris winner playing right wing, a 7th round pick hitting his apex at age 29 and a teenage marvel shocking the world a year after his draft but they forgot to actually build a real defense to support that top heavy forward core, which was the true hallmark of a Doug Wilson team

 

[Hodge]

Your argument sounds a lot like "results are just luck, actually", but I don't buy a team that could play Karlsson, Burns and Vlasic on separate D pairs is not as deep as a team that iced Brad Stuart for over 20 minutes in game 1 of the playoffs

2019 was definitely full-send, all-go, defense is for nerds, actually, and they rode that to an offense tied for 2nd in goals for, they had an identity and they lived up to it

2014 had an identity of a tough and hard nosed team that could hold their own with the big bad teams of the moment, and the second the Kings, the team they existed to beat at that time, threw a counter-punch they completely imploded and shit all over themselves, they were largely a mirage built on an eventual Norris winner playing right wing, a 7th round pick hitting his apex at age 29 and a teenage marvel shocking the world a year after his draft but they forgot to actually build a real defense to support that top heavy forward core, which was the true hallmark of a Doug Wilson team

Vlasic was already washed by 2019. In 2014 he was the best defensive defenseman on the planet and had just won Olympic gold with Team Canada. Karlsson was hobbled by injury in 2019 and played like shit. Results aren't all luck but any team that makes the playoffs can get lucky and win a round or two. It's much more difficult, if not impossible, to fluke your way into winning four straight rounds.

Just absolutely clueless to suggest the 2014 team didn't have a "real defense." They were a top 5 defense in the league and gave up less than 200 goals. Your memory of how good Vlasic, Demers, Braun and even Boyle were back then is fading.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Winning the Cup is the only thing that matters in the playoffs. Losing in the 3rd round vs. 1st is almost entirely meaningless (apart from ticket revenue) given the NHL's ridiculous sham of a playoff format that routinely pits 2 of the 3 or 4 best teams in the league against each other in round 1. Which is exactly what happened to the Sharks in 2014.

It wasn't just the Vlasic injury. There was also the terrible non-call on the Justin Williams goal in Game 6 where he pushed Stalock into the net. Also just the fact that reverse sweeps basically never happen in pro sports.

That 2019 team was incredibly more flawed. Literally the worst goaltending in the league playing behind two one-dimensional offensemen who gave up as much as they created plus they lacked a legitimate 1C. No chance of winning the Cup with that many red flags.

That first segment is pure copium. Even if the Sharks lucked out to get past the Kings, they were hardly guaranteed to roll through the rest of the playoffs.

It wasn't just the Vlasic injury but the goaltending was just as awful in the 2014 playoffs compared to 2019.

2019's team recipe for winning was outscoring their other issues. They were far more capable of that than 2014. The goaltending was roughly as bad. The blue line may have had two offensemen at the helm but the 2014 had Boyle and Demers as their offensemen. Both inferior in that aspect to Burns and Karlsson and both were largely invisible defensively as well. Outside of those two comparisons, there was Vlasic, Stuart, Hannan, Braun, and Irwin as Vlasic's injury replacement compared to Vlasic, Ryan, Braun, and Dillon. Vlasic in 2014 was miles ahead of Vlasic in 2019. Stuart and Hannan sucked. Ryan sucked. Irwin sucked. Dillon and Braun were solid. I still give the 2019 blue line the edge over that 2014 blue line.

The more I think about your legitimate 1C point, the more I laugh at that. Hertl was a lot more legitimate as a 1C in 2019 than Thornton was in 2014. Hertl had 35 goals and 74 points in 77 games. Thornton had 11 goals and 76 points in 82 games during the season. Then Thornton had 3 points in the series where Hertl had 15 points in 19 games including 10 goals.

 

[weastern bias]

Vlasic was already washed by 2019. In 2014 he was the best defensive defenseman on the planet and had just won Olympic gold with Team Canada. Karlsson was hobbled by injury in 2019 and played like shit. Results aren't all luck but any team that makes the playoffs can get lucky and win a round or two. It's much more difficult, if not impossible, to fluke your way into winning four straight rounds.

Just absolutely clueless to suggest the 2014 team didn't have a "real defense." They were a top 5 defense in the league and gave up less than 200 goals. Your memory of how good Vlasic, Demers, Braun and even Boyle were back then is fading.

I definitely remember how good Stuart, Hannan and Irwin were in 2014, and the answer was not, they were not good

Half the D core was dog shit, and unless you have someone going on a Duncan Keith 2015 run (we didn't) you aren't going far with 3 awful defensemen in your lineup

 

[Hodge]

That first segment is pure copium. Even if the Sharks lucked out to get past the Kings, they were hardly guaranteed to roll through the rest of the playoffs.

It wasn't just the Vlasic injury but the goaltending was just as awful in the 2014 playoffs compared to 2019.

2019's team recipe for winning was outscoring their other issues. They were far more capable of that than 2014. The goaltending was roughly as bad. The blue line may have had two offensemen at the helm but the 2014 had Boyle and Demers as their offensemen. Both inferior in that aspect to Burns and Karlsson and both were largely invisible defensively as well. Outside of those two comparisons, there was Vlasic, Stuart, Hannan, Braun, and Irwin as Vlasic's injury replacement compared to Vlasic, Ryan, Braun, and Dillon. Vlasic in 2014 was miles ahead of Vlasic in 2019. Stuart and Hannan sucked. Ryan sucked. Irwin sucked. Dillon and Braun were solid. I still give the 2019 blue line the edge over that 2014 blue line.

The more I think about your legitimate 1C point, the more I laugh at that. Hertl was a lot more legitimate as a 1C in 2019 than Thornton was in 2014. Hertl had 35 goals and 74 points in 77 games. Thornton had 11 goals and 76 points in 82 games during the season. Then Thornton had 3 points in the series where Hertl had 15 points in 19 games including 10 goals.

When did I say they were guaranteed to roll through the rest of the playoffs? It's a fact that the NHL's stupid divisional system forces 2 of the best teams in the league to face each other in the 1st or 2nd round every year. That makes it rather silly to judge a team on whether they lost in round 1 or round 3 while ignoring all context.

The 2013-14 Sharks gave up 193 goals, 5th fewest in the league. Those are objectively elite defensive results no matter what your half-remembered evaluation of the individual defensemen are.

Yes, Hertl's best season ever was barely on par with one of Thornton's worst. Thank you for illustrating the difference between a legitimate HOF-bound franchise 1C and a guy who had a career year.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

When did I say they were guaranteed to roll through the rest of the playoffs? It's a fact that the NHL's stupid divisional system forces 2 of the best teams in the league to face each other in the 1st or 2nd round every year. That makes it rather silly to judge a team on whether they lost in round 1 or round 3 while ignoring all context.

The 2013-14 Sharks gave up 193 goals, 5th fewest in the league. Those are objectively elite defensive results no matter what your half-remembered evaluation of the individual defensemen are.

Yes, Hertl's best season ever was barely on par with one of Thornton's worst. Thank you for illustrating the difference between a legitimate HOF-bound franchise 1C and a guy who had a career year.

The first part comes after you saying that losing in the 1st or 3rd round is irrelevant. That sounds like ignoring context to me or just you talking out of both sides of your mouth.

Also don't give me this half-remembered evaluation. This is fully remembered. The thing you're half-remembering is just how good that team actually was. That team was a top heavy team and proved it when they lost to the Kings. Just because you have a top five defensive and a top five offensive team (which the Sharks did that year), doesn't mean that you're a deep team. It doesn't mean you're going to match up well in the playoffs against teams with certain identities that play well against two line teams. The Kings were the best defensive team in the league that year. Once they shut Thornton down, the entire team wilted.

As for the last bit, that statement is you admitting that your logic is faulty. You just illustrated that either neither were legitimate 1C's or both were. I'm begging you to pick a lane or just stfu.

 

[Hodge]

The first part comes after you saying that losing in the 1st or 3rd round is irrelevant. That sounds like ignoring context to me or just you talking out of both sides of your mouth.

Also don't give me this half-remembered evaluation. This is fully remembered. The thing you're half-remembering is just how good that team actually was. That team was a top heavy team and proved it when they lost to the Kings. Just because you have a top five defensive and a top five offensive team (which the Sharks did that year), doesn't mean that you're a deep team. It doesn't mean you're going to match up well in the playoffs against teams with certain identities that play well against two line teams. The Kings were the best defensive team in the league that year. Once they shut Thornton down, the entire team wilted.

As for the last bit, that statement is you admitting that your logic is faulty. You just illustrated that either neither were legitimate 1C's or both were. I'm begging you to pick a lane or just stfu.

This argument is not about whether the 2014 Sharks were a flawless team. It's about whether they were better than the 2016 and 2019 teams which they clearly were.

The 2019 team finished bottom 10 in the league in goals against. Please find me a single team to win the Cup post-1967 expansion that was anywhere near that bad defensively. That team was never a serious Cup contender, it was a desperate last gasp attempt to win one for Jumbo that set the franchise back half a decade.

 

[weastern bias]

"clearly"

 

[Sombastate]

So what are the chances that Mukh spends most of the year in the show? I feel like every time I look up the road looks equally as difficult

 

[LilLeeroy]

Clearly 32 teams are run by idiots then for allowing this bonafide NHLer to slip through their fingers.


2013-14: .677 pts%, +49 GD
2015-16: .598 pts%, +31 GD
2018-19: .616 pts%, +28 GD

It's obvious which team was the best of those 3. It took a run of insanely bad luck for them to lose in 7 to the eventual champions.

Those later two teams would have looked a lot better for those two metrics if they had a real goalie though.

 

[Hodge]

Those later two teams would have looked a lot better for those two metrics if they had a real goalie though.

Niemi was a real goalie?

 

[weastern bias]

So what are the chances that Mukh spends most of the year in the show? I feel like every time I look up the road looks equally as difficult

I think it depends on how much he's progressed since last year, if he hasn't improved much he's probably spending at least half the season in the AHL, but if he's taken a big leap he has a good shot at stealing a full time job

The roster is kind of set up for him to have to take the job from someone else, which I think is smart, it's not being handed to him

Niemi was a real goalie?

2014 Niemi had a .913% in the regular season and an .884% in the playoffs

2019 Jones had an .896% in the regular season and an .898% in the playoffs

They're pretty comparable, but Niemi had a much higher ceiling at that moment

 

[Juxtaposer]

So what are the chances that Mukh spends most of the year in the show? I feel like every time I look up the road looks equally as difficult

Personally I think he’ll get every chance to make the team full time.

 

[Friday]

So what are the chances that Mukh spends most of the year in the show? I feel like every time I look up the road looks equally as difficult

There isn't really anyone blocking Mukh that has a long term future with the Sharks so im sure he will get every opportunity to find a spot this year

 

[Pinkfloyd]

This argument is not about whether the 2014 Sharks were a flawless team. It's about whether they were better than the 2016 and 2019 teams which they clearly were.

The 2019 team finished bottom 10 in the league in goals against. Please find me a single team to win the Cup post-1967 expansion that was anywhere near that bad defensively. That team was never a serious Cup contender, it was a desperate last gasp attempt to win one for Jumbo that set the franchise back half a decade.

Yeah and what makes a better team is going down the line of individuals and compare the teams. The goals and goals against rankings don't really matter because if it did, the Kings being a bottom five offensive team in 2014 would have made some sort of impact but it didn't. It's more about individual player evals at the time over team rankings that can mask depth issues on its own.

The Pittsburgh Penguins in the early 90's fit the description of being bad defensively by the metrics of finishing bottom 10 in the league in goals against. The Penguins in 2017 finished 17th in goals allowed before winning the Cup.

I tend to agree that 2019's team is not a serious contender but neither was 2014 but it was for different reasons. 2014 was a top heavy team and the depth disappeared in the playoffs. The blue line wasn't a serious Cup contending blue line. Vlasic-Braun was their top pairing and they were a shutdown pairing but that's it. Boyle was declining heavily probably in large part due to the Lapierre hit. Demers had a career year then ghosted the playoffs. Stuart and Hannan were on their last legs. Then look at what the Sharks were putting out there on their 3rd line and tell me how that's a contending setup? The Sharks 6th thru 9th forwards were an injured rookie Hertl, an injured Havlat who was largely replaced by Raffi Torres who didn't do that much then either, a career year from Tommy Wingels who followed the rest of the forwards who were shut down after game 3, and rookie Matt Nieto who also did nothing after game four but what would you really expect from him as a rookie?

This wasn't that good of a team. Any top this or top five that was a mirage.

 

[Juxtaposer]

There isn't really anyone blocking Mukh that has a long term future with the Sharks so im sure he will get every opportunity to find a spot this year

I mean, Walman, Ferraro, Thrun, and Vlasic are on the left side. Walman and Ferraro will be every day players.

My preference would be to bench Vlasic and use Thrun as the #7, but the left side is a bit crowded relative to other positions.

 

[LilLeeroy]

Niemi was a real goalie?

In comparison to the human sieve Martin Jones I'd say so. Can't believe DW was able to get him for only a 1st round pick.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I mean, Walman, Ferraro, Thrun, and Vlasic are on the left side. Walman and Ferraro will be every day players.

My preference would be to bench Vlasic and use Thrun as the #7, but the left side is a bit crowded relative to other positions.

The Sharks needed 9 guys to play on the blue line for 30 games or more. There's probably going to be enough room for Mukhamadullin to win a spot even on a crowded blue line. I suspect Vlasic will spend a good chunk of the season on the right side since they can't exactly depend on Benning and Emberson to be healthy. Muk is almost certainly at worst the next man up when injuries start to hit the blue line. I'm not sure what Thrun's waiver status is but I think if he is waiver exempt, he could be that guy because Muk wins the spot.

 

[Juxtaposer]

The debate around the 2014 team is crazy because personally I remember pretty much everyone other than Couture, Vlasic, and Marleau having bad years. Our left side after Vlasic was Matt Irwin, Scott Hannan, and Brad Stuart (all #7D at that point), Boyle was cooked, Thornton wasn’t at his best in the second half, Burns was a chronically unhealthy forward, our bottom-6 was LOL, and Antti Niemi made me cry on a regular basis.

Doesn’t mean I’m the one remembering right, but the spectrum of our memories is crazy. I remember that team as being held together by duct tape, the Marleau-Couture duo, and Vlasic’s shot-suppression statistics. Some people remember it as being better than the 2016 team. Wild.

 

[Cas]

The Sharks needed 9 guys to play on the blue line for 30 games or more. There's probably going to be enough room for Mukhamadullin to win a spot even on a crowded blue line. I suspect Vlasic will spend a good chunk of the season on the right side since they can't exactly depend on Benning and Emberson to be healthy. Muk is almost certainly at worst the next man up when injuries start to hit the blue line. I'm not sure what Thrun's waiver status is but I think if he is waiver exempt, he could be that guy because Muk wins the spot.

Thrun can be sent down without waivers for one more year.

 

[Hodge]

The debate around the 2014 team is crazy because personally I remember pretty much everyone other than Couture, Vlasic, and Marleau having bad years. Our left side after Vlasic was Matt Irwin, Scott Hannan, and Brad Stuart (all #7D at that point), Boyle was cooked, Thornton wasn’t at his best in the second half, Burns was a chronically unhealthy forward, our bottom-6 was LOL, and Antti Niemi made me cry on a regular basis.

Doesn’t mean I’m the one remembering right, but the spectrum of our memories is crazy. I remember that team as being held together by duct tape, the Marleau-Couture duo, and Vlasic’s shot-suppression statistics. Some people remember it as being better than the 2016 team. Wild.

Pavelski scored 41 that year, Burns scored 22 in 69 games and we gave up next to nothing defensively. The biggest issue was never having a fully healthy lineup which carried over into the playoffs but in terms of roster strength it was better than the 2016 team. We made it further in 2016 mostly because Thornton randomly had another Hart level season out of nowhere while our health and goaltending largely held up in the playoffs. Also the Kings and Blackhawks fell off.