Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[matt trick]

I'd love to acquire Askarov and would pay more than the Ferraro (into McGroaty) plus assets example (which I like as a foundation). However, in much the way I wouldn't want to put Celebrini and Smith into a top 9 with Granlund, Eklund, and Zetterlund alone, it'd be hard to to acquire Askarov and put him behind our D (particularly sans Ferraro in this case!)

Can we acquire him then loan him to Nash to develop him for another year? The reality is, I don't think he'll get moved this year, but I'd be ready to move on him next year, when we'll have further stockpiled assets.

 

[Hodge]

I'm curious to see how our old friend Josh Norris performs next season.

If he stays healthy and looks more like he did in his first two seasons I wouldn't mind reacquiring him with ~$1.5M year retained.

 

[OffSydes]

this also works for trades.

I forgot one!

 

[mogambomoroo]

The storyline I'm really interested next season is Will Smith redemption.
I feel he has gotten the 2nd guy treatment now that everybody is talking about Celebrini and I understand it. I think there is a going to be a chip on his shoulder.
Listening to his development camp interview with Dan Rusanowsky and McCarthy dev camp interview it appears Smith has added some weight too.
I love to see this development, I think he is not going to give his spot to Celebrini without a competition (in a good way)

In this Celebrini era that we are living now, there is another player that wants the crown and he is Will Smith.

 

[gaucholoco3]

This season would depend on linemates but I would bet that Smith consistently will have more points than Celebrini.

I think Smith has 100 point upside similar to Jack Hughes and Celebrini has 80 point Selke winning upside.

 

[LadyStanley]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1808269491995873551

Scratch one possibility

 

[LadyStanley]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1808274530021908650

Another UFA signs elsewhere

 

[Alaskanice]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1808274530021908650

Another UFA signs elsewhere

Now it’s gone. What was it?

 

[LadyStanley]

Carpy signing with AHL San Diego

 

[Lebanezer]

The storyline I'm really interested next season is Will Smith redemption.
I feel he has gotten the 2nd guy treatment now that everybody is talking about Celebrini and I understand it. I think there is a going to be a chip on his shoulder.
Listening to his development camp interview with Dan Rusanowsky and McCarthy dev camp interview it appears Smith has added some weight too.
I love to see this development, I think he is not going to give his spot to Celebrini without a competition (in a good way)

In this Celebrini era that we are living now, there is another player that wants the crown and he is Will Smith.

Secondary guy. He’s secondary. Like all his points in college. Secondary. If he played in the NFL he’d be in the secondary. And so on.

 

[sharski]

The storyline I'm really interested next season is Will Smith redemption.
I feel he has gotten the 2nd guy treatment now that everybody is talking about Celebrini and I understand it. I think there is a going to be a chip on his shoulder.
Listening to his development camp interview with Dan Rusanowsky and McCarthy dev camp interview it appears Smith has added some weight too.
I love to see this development, I think he is not going to give his spot to Celebrini without a competition (in a good way)

In this Celebrini era that we are living now, there is another player that wants the crown and he is Will Smith.

If by the end of 25-26 season we haven't seen a Will Smith heel turn I'll be VERY disappointed

I think Celebrini will have to be the Marty Jannetty to Smith's Shawn Michaels

 

[CHALUPA]

If by the end of 25-26 season we haven't seen a Will Smith heel turn I'll be VERY disappointed

I think Celebrini will have to be the Marty Jannetty to Smith's Shawn Michaels

WILL YOU STOP?!

 

[BaileyMacTavish]

Man I'd take a flyer on Boqvist for the RHD vacancy. Otherwise I hope Thompson makes it. (Thompson is RHD, right?)

 

[Saskatoon]

Thank you for this response.

Yes there are many example of winning teams with mid-AF goalies. It doesn't change the fact that those goalies are still mid-AF. I mentioned in my post the Adin Hill example. You can win in this league with a mid goalie + amazing defense.

As to drafting goalies, my point is, you can apply the same logic to non-goalies too. The current and recent Sharks teams have their fair share of former first round picks who never met their supposed potential. Forwards bust out just as much as goalies too, maybe more so. The only difference is that we tend to know sooner if a forward is a bust versus a goalie.

I think saying goalies are "harder to accurately project" is fair, but in no way is using the word "voodoo" a fair word and disrespects everything it takes to make it as an NHL goalie.

Why people say goalies are voodoo is because other than the truely elite you don't know what you are going to get in any given year.

Bad goalies have amazing years. Good goalies have a tough year or two and bounce back. Some goalies almost carry their team to a cup (Jones) and then don't belong in the league shortly thereafter

 

[ChompChomp]

Why people say goalies are voodoo is because other than the truely elite you don't know what you are going to get in any given year.

Bad goalies have amazing years. Good goalies have a tough year or two and bounce back. Some goalies almost carry their team to a cup (Jones) and then don't belong in the league shortly thereafter

There are actual reasons for the variance. Take Martin Jones for instance. I'm sure if you ask a goaltending expert (not laypersons like us who might chaulk up such variance to the mystic arts) they could tell you by analyzing his games why he fell off a cliff. And you know what? I'm certain they wouldn't say it was some mysterious voodoo.

 

[tiburon12]

There are actual reasons for the variance. Take Martin Jones for instance. I'm sure if you ask a goaltending expert (not laypersons like us who might chaulk up such variance to the mystic arts) they could tell you by analyzing his games why he fell off a cliff. And you know what? I'm certain they wouldn't say it was some mysterious voodoo.

Jones suffered from the pad size decrease. He was a strong positional goalie who built a career being in position, then they changed the rules on pad size and he had to readjust everything.

But to my point earlier, towards the end the Sharks were a bad rush D team and that was brutal for Jones, who again was a positional goalie forced to make saves on odd-man rushes. Think of how many goals Vegas scored against us on the rush....Similarly, he was bad in traffic because he had to move a lot to see the puck, thus taking himself out of position.

It was a terrible system match at the end, on top of Jones losing confidence and generally playing bad.

 

[mogambomoroo]

The video below made my mind blow! I didn't expect to have that reaction, just watching Celebrini and Smith walking together on the field transformed in my mind to a video of them skating together after a timeout in a hard playoff game about to score series changing goal. Those two don't feel like real people, it's like the first time I saw Burns and Karlsson meeting back in 2018 (Back then it was larger then life feeling)

https://x.com/i/web/status/1808330571304915359

 

[Saskatoon]

There are actual reasons for the variance. Take Martin Jones for instance. I'm sure if you ask a goaltending expert (not laypersons like us who might chaulk up such variance to the mystic arts) they could tell you by analyzing his games why he fell off a cliff. And you know what? I'm certain they wouldn't say it was some mysterious voodoo.

Maybe voodoo isn't the right word but people understand it

I am sure experts are better than us but if the position was so easy to understand you wouldn't have all these teams making poor choices with who they sign.

It's not that goalies are actually voodoo but that they are probably the hardest position to understand. Their developmental curve is more erratic. Their play is affected by their system in hard to understand ways.

Voodoo is just shorthand (even lazy shorthand) for how difficult it is to predict who will, year-to-year, have up or down seasons

 

[ChompChomp]

Maybe voodoo isn't the right word but people understand it

I am sure experts are better than us but if the position was so easy to understand you wouldn't have all these teams making poor choices with who they sign.

It's not that goalies are actually voodoo but that they are probably the hardest position to understand. Their developmental curve is more erratic. Their play is affected by their system in hard to understand ways.

Voodoo is just shorthand (even lazy shorthand) for how difficult it is to predict who will, year-to-year, have up or down seasons

I agree with what you say about the experts and difficulty to understand. Let's not say maybe, it's simply, actually, the wrong word to use. It's flat out wrong to use a word that has a mystical connotation. That's why no one should defend the use of the word. The people who say it should do better with their use of language, period, so as to avoid using a word with a mystical connotation here.

 

[Saskatoon]

I agree with what you say about the experts and difficulty to understand. Let's not say maybe, it's simply, actually, the wrong word to use. It's flat out wrong to use a word that has a mystical connotation. That's why no one should defend the use of the word. The people who say it should do better with their use of language, period, so as to avoid using a word with a mystical connotation here.

Sure if you want to make the conversation about word choice then I can't say I disagree

But what means is at least somewhat correct. It's an older article but I like the charts. Shows how there is correlation between player salary and performance. But barely any with goalies (i.e NHL teams are struggling to properly value goalies)

Why analysis of goalies is so difficult - TSN.ca

When it comes to statistical analysis of forwards and defencemen, there are plenty of ways to break down value beyond goals and assists. But for goalies, the most useful stat is save percentage, and it's one that is swamped by random variance. TSN's Travis Yost breaks it down.

www.tsn.ca

 

[ChompChomp]

Sure if you want to make the conversation about word choice then I can't say I disagree

But what means is at least somewhat correct. It's an older article but I like the charts. Shows how there is correlation between player salary and performance. But barely any with goalies (i.e NHL teams are struggling to properly value goalies)

Why analysis of goalies is so difficult - TSN.ca

When it comes to statistical analysis of forwards and defencemen, there are plenty of ways to break down value beyond goals and assists. But for goalies, the most useful stat is save percentage, and it's one that is swamped by random variance. TSN's Travis Yost breaks it down.

www.tsn.ca

Thanks for the article. Again, my issue with the word is that using a word with a mystical connotation discredits all the work put in for goalie development.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I keep seeing that he Sharks have significant interest in McGroarty but I really don’t see what we can move that would be interesting to Winnipeg. I wouldn’t move any of our top-5 prospects or Chernyshov for him, I wouldn’t move Eklund, our 2025 1st, or Vegas’ 2025 1st for him. So what’s even left? Edstrom, Ferraro, 2nd is kinda the best I’d be willing to do, but that doesn’t sound like enough relative to how highly Winnipeg fans seem to value him.

 

[Pete Taylor]

Edstrom, Ferraro and a 2nd? That would be way too much for him. It does not matter what Winnipeg fans peg as his value. Why would we give us a recent 1st rounder, #4 D, and a second for a guy that has low top 6 ceiling and skates like he is in mud?

I keep seeing that he Sharks have significant interest in McGroarty but I really don’t see what we can move that would be interesting to Winnipeg. I wouldn’t move any of our top-5 prospects or Chernyshov for him, I wouldn’t move Eklund, our 2025 1st, or Vegas’ 2025 1st for him. So what’s even left? Edstrom, Ferraro, 2nd is kinda the best I’d be willing to do, but that doesn’t sound like enough relative to how highly Winnipeg fans seem to value him

 

[Gecklund]

I keep seeing that he Sharks have significant interest in McGroarty but I really don’t see what we can move that would be interesting to Winnipeg. I wouldn’t move any of our top-5 prospects or Chernyshov for him, I wouldn’t move Eklund, our 2025 1st, or Vegas’ 2025 1st for him. So what’s even left? Edstrom, Ferraro, 2nd is kinda the best I’d be willing to do, but that doesn’t sound like enough relative to how highly Winnipeg fans seem to value him.

Fans aren’t exactly the best judges of value. Y’all remember the Devils fans who wouldn’t move Zetterlund for Timo?

I could see something around Ferraro for sure. Winnipeg’s LHD are Morrissey, Samberg, and Stanley and while I like Samberg and think he can be a number 4, I have a feeling Winnipeg wants someone a bit more established.

Other guy I could see is Granlund. Winnipeg is back in that spot without a 2C.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Edstrom, Ferraro and a 2nd? That would be way too much for him. It does not matter what Winnipeg fans peg as his value. Why would we give us a recent 1st rounder, #4 D, and a second for a guy that has low top 6 ceiling and skates like he is in mud?

I’m not advocating for making a trade like that, I’m trying to make sense of the supposed “great interest” the Sharks have in trading for McGroarty.