Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[fasterthanlight]

Here's something I haven't thought in a decade or so: our cap situation is actually really good.

By the time mack and will need new deals, couture/vlasic/jones/karlsson/burns will be entirely off the books. We have a ton of flexibility, and will only have one more year of hertl retention at 1.3M.

Hail GM MG!

 

[Juxtaposer]

I don't think Dobson is the answer. I've been watching him a lot this year and IMO he just isn't nearly as good as some of y'all seem to think.

If we're trying to pursue an unrealistic UFA, I'd much rather have Marner than Rantanen.

 

[STL Shark]

Please don't do this, Rantanen is definitely a star and an elite, but he has already won the Stanley Cup. He is interested in the last fat contract in his career and that's all. In addition, he has a slight tendency to injury. He will be looking for a contract for 13.0 - 14.0 million, with an adequate price of 11.5 - 12.0

It's just cap space. Cap is set to explode in the coming years under the new CBA. Will only have to worry about 5 years of 2 super highly paid guys together on the same cap when Macklin's ELC expires.

The injury thing is a load of crap too. Dude has played 368 out of a possible 381 games since 2020-21 (including playoffs). He's a bonafide star player and fits what SJ should be looking to do with their cap space.

 

[Cas]

Here's something I haven't thought in a decade or so: our cap situation is actually really good.

By the time mack and will need new deals, couture/vlasic/jones/karlsson/burns will be entirely off the books. We have a ton of flexibility, and will only have one more year of hertl retention at 1.3M.

Hail GM MG!

Grier's ability to clear out our dire cap situation, while adding useful (even excellent) assets, has been phenomenal:

Karlsson turned into Granlund+Dickinson, Hertl into Askarov, Meier into Zetterlund+Mukhamadullin+Musty+Kostin.

Only the Burns trade hasn't been all that fruitful:

Burns and Pederson for Lorentz, Mäkiniemi, and CAR 2023 3rd (#94).
CAR 2023 3rd (#94) and SJS 2023 4th (#100) for PHI 2023 3rd (#71 - Svoboda).
Lorentz and SJS 2025 5th (#131?) for Duclair.
Duclair and SJS 2025 7th (#195?) for Thompson and TBL 2024 3rd (#85).
TBL 2024 3rd (#85) and SJS 2025 6th (#163?) for NJD 2024 3rd (#82 - Wetsch).

Essentially Burns + 4th + 5th + 6th + 7th for Thompson, Wetsch, and Svodoba, plus maybe a little flexibility (we got Kunin with a 2023 3rd and picked Svoboda three picks after the traded pick, and we got Thrun with a 2023 4th and picked Wetsch 16 picks after the traded pick). That was Grier's first; chalk it up to inexperience and/or impatience, or perhaps Burns just wasn't that valuable (given his age, cap hit, and no-trade clause). Hopefully one of those lottery tickets turns into something useful.

 

[OrrNumber4]

1) Burns wanted out
2) He had a strong NTC
3) There were concerns about his age and contract
4) Grier wanted to be accommodating

That's why the trade happened and the value was what it was. Grier had the power to change #4; he could have waited. But that had its risks, and ultimately the trade let Grier signal that the tear-down was beginning and that he would be a reasonable GM.

 

[weastern bias]

 

[sampler]

Is it me, or is grier is in a bit of a catch 22 this year. No doubt he wants one of the prizes of the draft (Schaefer likely the top target, but Im sure he wouldnt scoff at martone, Hagens, or Misa.) The timing of the blackwood deal, and keeping askarov in the minors, certainly signals Grier's lack of aspirations for this season. I'm sure grier would be just fine finishing in the bottom 5 or even dead last.

At the same time, the sharks continue to play well enough to potentially win themselves out of a top 5 spot. I'm sure grier does not want the team to purposely tank, and no chance that he tells Wars to ease off the throttle. He wants the team to try its best and build a proper winning culture.

What a strange and very powerfully competing set of incentives. Most interestingly to me is how he will play the TDL:

1. Scenario one: The sharks are god awful from here (either an injury or just the team falls off the table). No one (particularly granny and Ceci, but the others too) very much wants to stay. This is a wholly simple scenario in which grier sells everyone he can for the best price possible.

2. Scenario 2 (this is what I think is mostly likely): the sharks are clearly out of the playoffs around 7th worst in the league at the TDL. Granny and company are very open to staying on reasonable deals. This is the doozy. If he sells, there are two big upsides: draft capital/prospects in return, and the team will likely lose more post deadline without its vets, making a better pick more likely. BUT, it also hurts competiting the following year, assuming traded guys dont come back in the summer.

the best scenario is that the sharks are 5th worst approachaing the deadline having build a solid culture that is competitive in virtually every game. Grier then trades all assets for future assets getting back pretty much an entire draft worth of picks (granny = 1st rounder, ceci 2nd, kunin 3rd, etc...). The sharks give a month of "tryouts" to Graf, Gush, Cardwell, Cagnoni, etc, but tank the final month and end up bottom 3. Then, granlund and Ceci come back on reasonable deals.

If grier somehow manages to keep the solid vets going forward, while maximizing their returns for the reamining of this year, while providing valuable NHL expereice for the kids, while maintaining a competitive team and positive culture.... Thats GMing at its finest.

What a fascinating and narrow path grier has to walk from now...

 

[Pinkfloyd]

The value seems low to me as well, but Lamoriello is an enigma, he's the ultimate anti-tank-always-win-now guy, I would hope he overvalues veteran roster players, but I might be being overly optimistic

I hope so too but then I wonder if Dobson is the guy to make such a move with or if it makes more sense to just max out the veterans we do have that are appealing and continue with the rebuild. I think I'd rather have the space created by taking futures for Ferraro than making a huge package for Dobson and committing eight years to someone who is not a surefire 1D and has questionable playoff experience too. At least if you just moved Ferraro for even just a 2nd at the deadline, you can move Muk up to the top four provided that he's played well between now and then, then it makes it easier to find time for Cagnoni before the season is over. Next year may have Dickinson graduate to the NHL as well and room is going to be needed to see what we have with these three.

 

[weastern bias]

the sharks continue to play well enough to potentially win themselves out of a top 5 spot.

What is this "continue" you keep insisting on?

The team is 3rd last in points% today, they have been bottom 3 all year, they are coming off a 3-3-0 road trip where they managed their second win of the season against a no-doubt playoff team and this trip is one of the high points of the year (a trip that included a 3 game losing streak and an 8 goal shitkicking in Tampa)

Our draft position is not in peril, this team is picking top-5, we don't need to worry about playing spoiler to ourselves, we only ever beat bad teams and there's only so many of those to go around

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Is it me, or is grier is in a bit of a catch 22 this year. No doubt he wants one of the prizes of the draft (Schaefer likely the top target, but Im sure he wouldnt scoff at martone, Hagens, or Misa.) The timing of the blackwood deal, and keeping askarov in the minors, certainly signals Grier's lack of aspirations for this season. I'm sure grier would be just fine finishing in the bottom 5 or even dead last.

At the same time, the sharks continue to play well enough to potentially win themselves out of a top 5 spot. I'm sure grier does not want the team to purposely tank, and no chance that he tells Wars to ease off the throttle. He wants the team to try its best and build a proper winning culture.

What a strange and very powerfully competing set of incentives. Most interestingly to me is how he will play the TDL:

1. Scenario one: The sharks are god awful from here (either an injury or just the team falls off the table). No one (particularly granny and Ceci, but the others too) very much wants to stay. This is a wholly simple scenario in which grier sells everyone he can for the best price possible.

2. Scenario 2 (this is what I think is mostly likely): the sharks are clearly out of the playoffs around 7th worst in the league at the TDL. Granny and company are very open to staying on reasonable deals. This is the doozy. If he sells, there are two big upsides: draft capital/prospects in return, and the team will likely lose more post deadline without its vets, making a better pick more likely. BUT, it also hurts competiting the following year, assuming traded guys dont come back in the summer.

the best scenario is that the sharks are 5th worst approachaing the deadline having build a solid culture that is competitive in virtually every game. Grier then trades all assets for future assets getting back pretty much an entire draft worth of picks (granny = 1st rounder, ceci 2nd, kunin 3rd, etc...). The sharks give a month of "tryouts" to Graf, Gush, Cardwell, Cagnoni, etc, but tank the final month and end up bottom 3. Then, granlund and Ceci come back on reasonable deals.

If grier somehow manages to keep the solid vets going forward, while maximizing their returns for the reamining of this year, while providing valuable NHL expereice for the kids, while maintaining a competitive team and positive culture.... Thats GMing at its finest.

What a fascinating and narrow path grier has to walk from now...

The Sharks are only 7th by raw point totals. They are still 3rd by points percentage and a sell mode likely keeps them in that area while the kids get their experience. The goaltending is going to become a little more inconsistent going from Blackwood to Georgiev. This team still needs a 1D-type and a 2C type and other depth pieces. We may be hoping some guys develop into that but we are still very early stages of that and need to be patient. I think that inevitably means selling the vets that are expiring and keep investing in the prospect pool.

 

[mogambomoroo]

Yeah, gotta admit my original deal involving Dobson was probably too much quantity over quality.
It's going to be hard to acquire that type of a player for a price that would fit Sharks narrative.
But the thought behind Grier going aggressively for Dobson type is because of the Askarov deal that he did.
He seems to want to address the holes pretty quickly now that Celebrini is in the house and I think going for 1D is in his schedule highlighted.

 

[Alaskanice]

Is anyone considering that Askarov is being kept down because the ‘Cuda are doing fantastic and the organization wants them to succeed? Winning it all down there would do wonders for everyone.

 

[coooldude]

Public announcement: if you win every third game, your winning% is 0.333 and you are dead last in the NHL.

If you do better than this, say, by winning 4 out of every 10 games, it does not mean you are a good team. In fact, you are second or third worst.

If you do even better than this, say by going 4-5-1 every 10 games, you are at 0.450 and you are starting to creep out of the bottom 5, maybe.

We are still a bottom 5 team even though we did beat WSH and we beat STL. in DEC our points% is 0.400.

 

[Jargon]

Wahlstrom on waivers. We don’t really have a spot and I’m not sure he’s actually good? But just wanted to mention it.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Wahlstrom on waivers. We don’t really have a spot and I’m not sure he’s actually good? But just wanted to mention it.

He's awful.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Wahlstrom on waivers. We don’t really have a spot and I’m not sure he’s actually good? But just wanted to mention it.

A reminder that at one time, the Islanders offered Wahlstrom and a first-rounder for Brent Burns...

 

[The Mars Volchenkov]

Please don't do this, Rantanen is definitely a star and an elite, but he has already won the Stanley Cup. He is interested in the last fat contract in his career and that's all. In addition, he has a slight tendency to injury. He will be looking for a contract for 13.0 - 14.0 million, with an adequate price of 11.5 - 12.0

Rantanen has actually been remarkably durable during his career. The only year he missed a decent chunk of time was when he missed most of camp because of a contract dispute.

 

[Jargon]

He's awful.

He can be our next Zadina!

 

[Juxtaposer]

He can be our next Zadina!

We've thankfully graduated from needing Zadinas to fill out our roster. Maybe Chicago can find some use for him...