Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Juxtaposer]

Is there a better metric? Goodrow is 3rd if you adjust for score and venue.

And how is Kunin relevant? He's never shared the ice with Celebrini let alone been his linemate.

Well, when you're talking about a guy who is going to be iced with Macklin freaking Celebrini, I think raw point totals are actually a more important metric. I know, call me crazy, but I think a player being iced next to our franchise center should have more than one even strength point in 17 games.

Kunin is relevant because you're always talking him up, but when a metric shows he's literally not an NHL player, it's "irrelevant".

Those metrics say that Goodrow is a solid fourth liner and Kunin should be launched into space and never see another minute of NHL ice time.

 

[Hodge]

Well, when you're talking about a guy who is going to be iced with Macklin freaking Celebrini, I think raw point totals are actually a more important metric. I know, call me crazy, but I think a player being iced next to our franchise center should have more than one even strength point in 17 games.

Kunin is relevant because you're always talking him up, but when a metric shows he's literally not an NHL player, it's "irrelevant".

Those metrics say that Goodrow is a solid fourth liner and Kunin should be launched into space and never see another minute of NHL ice time.

I was responding to a post that specifically stated Goodrow is "allergic to puck possession" and that's clearly untrue, at least relative to the other options at Warso's disposal. Nobody should be judging players on their Corsi% but it is still the best publicly available proxy for OZ possession time.

Anyway in other news Rangers fans seem to be done with K'Andre Miller. I wonder what it would cost us to just import the Miller-Trouba pairing next summer.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Well, when you're talking about a guy who is going to be iced with Macklin freaking Celebrini, I think raw point totals are actually a more important metric. I know, call me crazy, but I think a player being iced next to our franchise center should have more than one even strength point in 17 games.

Kunin is relevant because you're always talking him up, but when a metric shows he's literally not an NHL player, it's "irrelevant".

Those metrics say that Goodrow is a solid fourth liner and Kunin should be launched into space and never see another minute of NHL ice time.

That and a lot of Goodrow's positive possession comes when they're trailing. From my look at some of the possession numbers, Goodrow has been at least competitive with Smith but Kunin sinks them.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I was responding to a post that specifically stated Goodrow is "allergic to puck possession" and that's clearly untrue, at least relative to the other options at Warso's disposal. Nobody should be judging players on their Corsi% but it is still the best publicly available proxy for OZ possession time.

Anyway in other news Rangers fans seem to be done with K'Andre Miller. I wonder what it would cost us to just import the Miller-Trouba pairing next summer.

I don't think this is accurate though. Goodrow hasn't been any good at possession when the games are close.

 

[OrrNumber4]

@Hodge continues to play tennis without a net...

 

[jarr92]

If Smith is going on the wing run the Sharks version of a kid line with Smith, Eklund, and Celebrini. Would definitely be fun.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

If Smith is going on the wing run the Sharks version of a kid line with Smith, Eklund, and Celebrini. Would definitely be fun.

If they're not going to put Smith in the top six because he isn't ready, his line should be him with Goodrow and Dellandrea. It's who he performs best with at this point.

 

[Hodge]

@Hodge continues to play tennis without a net...

@Anomie2029 claimed Goodrow is allergic to puck possession. I responded with stats showing he's been one of the better forwards on the team by the most commonly used possession stat.

If you want to argue Goodrow shouldn't be on the top line because he takes so much off the table offensively, fair enough and I don't disagree. Warso doesn't have many better options though.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

@Anomie2029 claimed Goodrow is allergic to puck possession. I responded with stats showing he's been one of the better forwards on the team by the most commonly used possession stat.

If you want to argue Goodrow shouldn't be on the top line because he takes so much off the table offensively, fair enough and I don't disagree. Warso doesn't have many better options though.

And when that commonly used possession stat is put in real context, we find that Goodrow is actually not one of the better forwards on the team.

 

[OrrNumber4]

@Anomie2029 claimed Goodrow is allergic to puck possession. I responded with stats showing he's been one of the better forwards on the team by the most commonly used possession stat.

If you want to argue Goodrow shouldn't be on the top line because he takes so much off the table offensively, fair enough and I don't disagree. Warso doesn't have many better options though.

The stat you use to promote Goodrow also shows that a favorite player of yours is useless. You're starting a dance competition with no rules.

 

[Hodge]

And when that commonly used possession stat is put in real context, we find that Goodrow is actually not one of the better forwards on the team.

Except he ranks even higher by the score-adjusted numbers. Most defensive zone starts on the team like I said. What other context is there?

The stat you use to promote Goodrow also shows that a favorite player of yours is useless. You're starting a dance competition with no rules.

I'm not using the stat to promote anyone. It's a proxy for offensive zone puck possession time when a player is on the ice. There is so much more to the game than that. If someone had said Kunin is allergic to puck possession I wouldn't have argued.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Except he ranks even higher by the score-adjusted numbers. Most defensive zone starts on the team like I said. What other context is there?

Within 1, he's one of the worst. His possession positives almost exclusively come from score effects from trailing.

 

[Hodge]

Within 1, he's one of the worst. His possession positives almost exclusively come from score effects from trailing.

Those minutes still count, you're just slicing an already tiny sample size even smaller.

 

[Anomie2029]

@Anomie2029 claimed Goodrow is allergic to puck possession. I responded with stats showing he's been one of the better forwards on the team by the most commonly used possession stat.

If you want to argue Goodrow shouldn't be on the top line because he takes so much off the table offensively, fair enough and I don't disagree. Warso doesn't have many better options though.

I'd argue corsi % is not the best indicator of possession. Or are you honestly suggesting that Goodrow is better with the puck than Celebrini?

So lets look at some rates:
- Corsi for per 60 sees him drop down to 6th best forward.
- When we take blocked shots out of the way (Fenwick for) he becomes the 9th best forward.
- When we look at raw shots for per 60 he drops even further to 11th best forward.

What this tells me is he is perfectly adequate 4th liner who can jump up to the 3rd in a pinch.

Unfortunately, until the NHL makes actual puck possession stats available we can argue all you want. All I know is plays die when the puck is on his stick. It's either a blocked shot, poor pass that gets turned over, or he loses the puck.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Those minutes still count, you're just slicing an already tiny sample size even smaller.

In terms of determining who is actually doing well relatively speaking at possession, no they don't.

 

[Hodge]

I'd argue corsi % is not the best indicator of possession. Or are you honestly suggesting that Goodrow is better with the puck than Celebrini?

It is absolutely the best indicator of possession. Not everything that influences possession is done with the puck.

 

[Anomie2029]

It is absolutely the best indicator of possession. Not everything that influences possession is done with the puck.

Foolish me, when I said someone is allergic to possessing the puck I should have clarified that it meant they don't like the puck on their blade because they can't control it!

Must have been why the Rangers were so keen to keep him.

 

[SjMilhouse]

Took 17 games but finally getting that hot "top line Goodrow" goodness I've been waiting for since waivers. This will surely be a rational discussion

 

[Hodge]

Foolish me, when I said someone is allergic to possessing the puck I should have clarified that it meant they don't like the puck on their blade because they can't control it!

Must have been why the Rangers were so keen to keep him.

It's just a strange reason to not want him on that line. If you had said Goodrow is allergic to offense that would have made sense.

We don't need him to actually handle the puck when he's playing with Celebrini and Toffoli. He can help them as F1 and puck battle winner.

 

[Cas]

Two-time Cup winner Barclay Goodrow was waived. He's not very good, we're just still awful.

 

[weastern bias]

Brad Winchester

*shudder*

 

[coooldude]

I've been wondering what would happen if we sent Kostin down. We're already at our veteran limit for the Barracuda (although Lucas Carlsson hasn't appeared in a game yet) so Kostin arriving would cause us to have to sit either him or one of the veterans in our lineup. And they probably don't want to send him down and then not have him playing in the AHL, either. So if we sent him down, I'd guess either Justin Bailey comes up, or they alternate between the two of them. Bailey's been hit and miss so far. But I'm really not sure Kostin would be any better.

At this point, I just expect Kostin gets the Labanc treatment until the season is over. Unless we make a trade where we can ship him out as an add-on or swap, perhaps at the deadline.

 

[Sharkz4Fun]

Kunin, Grundstrum, Goodrow, Dellandrea, Sturm - those are all bonafide NHLers that would (likely) be a 3rd/4th line upgrade for a contending team. Like, "shore up your 4th line with Dellandrea" for a 3rd is a great deal for a contender.

Dellandrea, Sturm as well as Grundstrom were all consistently healthy scratched the last time they were in the playoffs. Guys like these are all spare parts.

 

[STL Shark]

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Sort by CF%

And yet you make fun of others that cite Natural Stat Trick when you're being disagreed with.

 

[Barrie22]

That settles it, send Celebrini to the AHL can't have the 4th worst cf% player to be on the team.