Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Cas]

At the risk of accidentally summoning Hodge, I suspect Bordeleau isn’t coming back next season.

I think Grier is going to do his best to build a bigger, hard working grindy bottom 6 that’s got good defense and is annoying to play against while his top 6 will be a mix of our high end rookies and a couple of older top 6 vets.

Not sure where Bords fits there.

He's probably going to turn into someone's 3LW and PP specialist.

 

[Hodge]

He's probably going to turn into someone's 3LW and PP specialist.

Yeah, in the Swiss league.

 

[OversKy]

Putting it in perspective makes it all the more hilarious just how bad we were in 2024

Vegas was the bottom seed in the playoffs in the west with 98 points

We were 51 points behind them

We had 47 points

The worst playoff team had MORE THAN DOUBLE our point total

This tank was awesome, truly generational work

Truly one of the seasons of all time.

 

[Friday]

Putting it in perspective makes it all the more hilarious just how bad we were in 2024

Vegas was the bottom seed in the playoffs in the west with 98 points

We were 51 points behind them

We had 47 points

The worst playoff team had MORE THAN DOUBLE our point total

This tank was awesome, truly generational work

You know what's crazy, Anaheim had the 3rd best lottery odds and finished with 21 more points than the Sharks. SJ could theoretically improve by 20 points next year and still be picking top 3 haha

 

[Barrie22]

The usual average for last place is 65 points. Need a 20 point boost, just to become as a normal years bottom feeder lol

 

[gaucholoco3]

You know what's crazy, Anaheim had the 3rd best lottery odds and finished with 21 more points than the Sharks. SJ could theoretically improve by 20 points next year and still be picking top 3 haha

One thing to keep in mind when talking about point improvement from last year is to think about median outcomes.

I would say the Sharks underperformed their median outcome last season by at least 10 points possibly even more.

So if the median outcome is improved by 20 points based on the roster improvements and the team finishes with an outcome 10 points higher than their median outcome then a 40 point improvement based on last year is not impossible.

A single season in sports is such a small sample size.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

One thing to keep in mind when talking about point improvement from last year is to think about median outcomes.

I would say the Sharks underperformed their median outcome last season by at least 10 points possibly even more.

So if the median outcome is improved by 20 points based on the roster improvements and the team finishes with an outcome 10 points higher than their median outcome then a 40 point improvement based on last year is not impossible.

A single season in sports is such a small sample size.

There won't be a 20 point median improvement based on roster improvements though. The only difference is we're bringing in a few rookies with upside and replacing boom/bust (mostly bust) players like Hoffman, Barabanov, Zadina, etc. with "safer" two-way/grinder guys like Goodrow, Dellandrea, etc. The only thing that means to me is while we're still going to lose games, the team will show a little more heart/fight in those losses. (which means losing 4-3 instead of 7-3)

There's no way we can possibly improve 40 points.

 

[Juxtaposer]

The more I think about it, the more I’m open to Bordeleau or Gushchin earning a spot in the top-9 out of camp. Probably only one spot available between them, but I kinda don’t hate the idea. Our locks as wings are:

Eklund
Zetterlund
Kostin
Kunin
One of Dellandrea or Smith
Goodrow

Centers are Granlund, Celebrini, one of Smith/Dellandrea, and Sturm.

If Couture isn’t healthy and we don’t make any more roster additions, then it seems like there’s a scoring winger spot open. I wouldn’t hate just sticking one of them with Granlund and seeing what they can do. Trial by fire for a guy who, to be frank, I’m not worried about ‘ruining’. If they come through it, then they deserve to be included in future plans.

This of course is assuming that Goodrow is for the fourth line. I don’t want to make myself sad by thinking of both him and Kunin in the top-9.

 

[LilLeeroy]

One thing to keep in mind when talking about point improvement from last year is to think about median outcomes.

I would say the Sharks underperformed their median outcome last season by at least 10 points possibly even more.

So if the median outcome is improved by 20 points based on the roster improvements and the team finishes with an outcome 10 points higher than their median outcome then a 40 point improvement based on last year is not impossible.

A single season in sports is such a small sample size.

If anything they overperformed their median outcome looking at the underlying stats. Chicago's xGF%, as the second worst team, was closer to the Blues at 6 than it was to the Shark's. Chicago was a much better team than only being 5 points in the standings better than the Sharks.

Obviously there is a lot of variance, and even this season if the Sharks won those two Chicago games in regulation they would have finished with a better record despite being a much worse team. So something like that could happen next year.

 

[Cas]

The more I think about it, the more I’m open to Bordeleau or Gushchin earning a spot in the top-9 out of camp. Probably only one spot available between them, but I kinda don’t hate the idea. Our locks as wings are:

Eklund
Zetterlund
Kostin
Kunin
One of Dellandrea or Smith
Goodrow

Centers are Granlund, Celebrini, one of Smith/Dellandrea, and Sturm.

If Couture isn’t healthy and we don’t make any more roster additions, then it seems like there’s a scoring winger spot open. I wouldn’t hate just sticking one of them with Granlund and seeing what they can do. Trial by fire for a guy who, to be frank, I’m not worried about ‘ruining’. If they come through it, then they deserve to be included in future plans.

This of course is assuming that Goodrow is for the fourth line. I don’t want to make myself sad by thinking of both him and Kunin in the top-9.

Bordeleau and Gushchin absolutely have a chance, as the lineup stands now, to start in the top 9.

Eklund, Granlund, Zetterlund, and Sturm are locks. Celebrini and Will Smith are essentially locks. All five should be legitimate NHL players next season.

After them, though, we have question marks everywhere:

• Couture might never play again.
• Goodrow and Givani Smith are really bad.
• Kunin, Zadina, and Studnicka are bad and RFAs.
• Kostin is very unproven.
• Dellandrea and Afanasyev are very unproven and RFAs.
• Carpenter and Bailey are AHL depth and UFAs.
• Bystedt, Edstrom, Graf, Robins, and Cardwell are very young and unproven.
• Musty and Halttunen are very young and unproven and can't play in the AHL.

We won't bring back all of these guys, either - I don't expect to see Zadina or Studnicka back (I don't know about Carpenter and Bailey, but I want them back). The bottom three lines should all be in the AHL/OHL to start the season and will only be given a chance if they totally blow everyone away in training camp.

Bordeleau and Gushchin are also young and unproven, but when you look at their competition, we have tons of room for them to seize chances because their competition (given the current roster) could easily flop in training camp or early in the season.

I think they are going to be tested heavily in training camp. I'm not expecting either to be just dumped (though I think one could move in a trade for something nice).

 

[Juxtaposer]

Bordeleau and Gushchin absolutely have a chance, as the lineup stands now, to start in the top 9.

Eklund, Granlund, Zetterlund, and Sturm are locks. Celebrini and Will Smith are essentially locks. All five should be legitimate NHL players next season.

After them, though, we have question marks everywhere:

• Couture might never play again.
• Goodrow and Givani Smith are really bad.
• Kunin, Zadina, and Studnicka are bad and RFAs.
• Kostin is very unproven.
• Dellandrea and Afanasyev are very unproven and RFAs.
• Carpenter and Bailey are AHL depth and UFAs.
• Bystedt, Edstrom, Graf, Robins, and Cardwell are very young and unproven.
• Musty and Halttunen are very young and unproven and can't play in the AHL.

We won't bring back all of these guys, either - I don't expect to see Zadina or Studnicka back (I don't know about Carpenter and Bailey, but I want them back). The bottom three lines should all be in the AHL/OHL to start the season and will only be given a chance if they totally blow everyone away in training camp.

Bordeleau and Gushchin are also young and unproven, but when you look at their competition, we have tons of room for them to seize chances because their competition (given the current roster) could easily flop in training camp or early in the season.

I think they are going to be tested heavily in training camp. I'm not expecting either to be just dumped (though I think one could move in a trade for something nice).

Given what we have, I feel like I might go for the following:

Bordeleau/Gushchin-Granlund-Zetterlund
Eklund-Celebrini-Kunin (I know I know)
Dellandrea-Smith-Kostin
Afanasyev-Sturm-Goodrow

Obviously I’d greatly prefer Couture be healthy AND to acquire another legit top-9 scorer (like Lee or whoever as a cap dump), but Grier is acquiring so many forwards with fourth line profiles that I’m starting to think that he plans to play some of them (Kunin) in the top-9. This lineup just reenforces how much the Goodrow acquisition made no sense… we literally have the same player in Kunin.

 

[sharks_dynasty]

Given what we have, I feel like I might go for the following:

Bordeleau/Gushchin-Granlund-Zetterlund
Eklund-Celebrini-Kunin (I know I know)
Dellandrea-Smith-Kostin
Afanasyev-Sturm-Goodrow

Obviously I’d greatly prefer Couture be healthy AND to acquire another legit top-9 scorer (like Lee or whoever as a cap dump), but Grier is acquiring so many forwards with fourth line profiles that I’m starting to think that he plans to play some of them (Kunin) in the top-9. This lineup just reenforces how much the Goodrow acquisition made no sense… we literally have the same player in Kunin.

If Couture is healthy and Bordeleau and Gushchin are fighting for top 6 roles, then I don't see why Kunin will need to be in the top 6.

A 4th line of Sturm, Goodrow and Kunin could be quite fun actually.

 

[Cas]

Given what we have, I feel like I might go for the following:

Bordeleau/Gushchin-Granlund-Zetterlund
Eklund-Celebrini-Kunin (I know I know)
Dellandrea-Smith-Kostin
Afanasyev-Sturm-Goodrow

Obviously I’d greatly prefer Couture be healthy AND to acquire another legit top-9 scorer (like Lee or whoever as a cap dump), but Grier is acquiring so many forwards with fourth line profiles that I’m starting to think that he plans to play some of them (Kunin) in the top-9. This lineup just reenforces how much the Goodrow acquisition made no sense… we literally have the same player in Kunin.

Maybe we'll get lucky and Afanasyev will turn into something and Kunin gets pushed down to the 4th line.

I just don't expect all of Dellandrea, Kostin, Kunin, Goodrow, Sturm, and Afanasyev to wind up staying in the lineup. Maybe the younger ones can turn into something, but I just don't think the older three are very good as it is (and can easily collapse into unplayability if they haven't already), and I'm not sold on Kostin being anything special either.

Granlund is also a guy I could see collapse pretty quickly, and we have to keep that in mind. He did look just awful to start the season last year and he's only getting older. I'm not expecting it, but I just think we have plenty of spots as it is right now.

 

[rideaucrusher21]

I really hope Couture gets healthy and plays the majority of games this year. It would be such a boost to the team, and I want to seem him back on the ice for his sake. Must be demoralizing with an injury like that

 

[Hodge]

Maybe we'll get lucky and Afanasyev will turn into something and Kunin gets pushed down to the 4th line.

I just don't expect all of Dellandrea, Kostin, Kunin, Goodrow, Sturm, and Afanasyev to wind up staying in the lineup. Maybe the younger ones can turn into something, but I just don't think the older three are very good as it is (and can easily collapse into unplayability if they haven't already), and I'm not sold on Kostin being anything special either.

Granlund is also a guy I could see collapse pretty quickly, and we have to keep that in mind. He did look just awful to start the season last year and he's only getting older. I'm not expecting it, but I just think we have plenty of spots as it is right now.

It's so funny to talk about "not being sold" on established NHL veterans like Sturm, Goodrow, Kunin and Kostin while putting your eggs in the Bordeleau and Gushchin basket.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Maybe we'll get lucky and Afanasyev will turn into something and Kunin gets pushed down to the 4th line.

I just don't expect all of Dellandrea, Kostin, Kunin, Goodrow, Sturm, and Afanasyev to wind up staying in the lineup. Maybe the younger ones can turn into something, but I just don't think the older three are very good as it is (and can easily collapse into unplayability if they haven't already), and I'm not sold on Kostin being anything special either.

Granlund is also a guy I could see collapse pretty quickly, and we have to keep that in mind. He did look just awful to start the season last year and he's only getting older. I'm not expecting it, but I just think we have plenty of spots as it is right now.

The issue for me is how Goodrow and Afanasyev were acquired—clearly, they’re meant to be full-time NHLers, but if either is in the top-9 then we’re in trouble. Afanasyev was traded from the Preds because he wants to go back to Russia if he’s not in the NHL (plus he seems like he deserves it). And you don’t claim a 3 year $3.6M contract for a guy who you don’t think is an every day NHLer.

Dellandrea is not a true center according to Stars fans, and I tend to agree. He doesn’t have top-6 skill, so I think he’s close to a lock for a third line wing role. His history as a center and size/skating/defensive acumen makes him a great fit with Smith.

I know Kostin could flame out, but I think he’ll be given every chance to keep the top-9 role he had at the end of last year. He’s got good size and more offensive talent than any of the bottom-6 wingers I’ve listed so far. So if both guys are back, one of Kostin and Kunin is basically forced into the top-6. That’s sorta my issue—we have way too many bottom-6 wingers.

Guys who are locks for the top-6 are Eklund, Granlund, Zetterlund, and Celebrini. Couture if he’s healthy, and Smith if they want to start him on the wing is possible too. I wouldn’t be surprised if Granlund wasn’t as good this year, and I expect his role to decrease over the course of the year as Celebrini and Smith acclimate to the NHL. He may even be traded at the deadline. But there’s no doubt in my mind that he’ll start the season as the top line center and he’s a top-6 lock.

 

[Le Grand Quebecois]

If Couture is really out. Would it make sense to sign Marchessault, to a two year? I don't think he'd sign with SJ but I like the idea of him on the wing with Celebrini. I've always thought he was a good locker room guy too.

 

[timorous me]

The issue for me is how Goodrow and Afanasyev were acquired—clearly, they’re meant to be full-time NHLers, but if either is in the top-9 then we’re in trouble. Afanasyev was traded from the Preds because he wants to go back to Russia if he’s not in the NHL (plus he seems like he deserves it). And you don’t claim a 3 year $3.6M contract for a guy who you don’t think is an every day NHLer.

Dellandrea is not a true center according to Stars fans, and I tend to agree. He doesn’t have top-6 skill, so I think he’s close to a lock for a third line wing role. His history as a center and size/skating/defensive acumen makes him a great fit with Smith.

I know Kostin could flame out, but I think he’ll be given every chance to keep the top-9 role he had at the end of last year. He’s got good size and more offensive talent than any of the bottom-6 wingers I’ve listed so far. So if both guys are back, one of Kostin and Kunin is basically forced into the top-6. That’s sorta my issue—we have way too many bottom-6 wingers.

Guys who are locks for the top-6 are Eklund, Granlund, Zetterlund, and Celebrini. Couture if he’s healthy, and Smith if they want to start him on the wing is possible too. I wouldn’t be surprised if Granlund wasn’t as good this year, and I expect his role to decrease over the course of the year as Celebrini and Smith acclimate to the NHL. He may even be traded at the deadline. But there’s no doubt in my mind that he’ll start the season as the top line center and he’s a top-6 lock.

I certainly wouldn't even pencil Afanasyev into a 3rd line role, but with the scoring ability he showed last year, it seems possible that he could end up growing into such a role, maybe getting a chance there if there are injuries or someone like Kostin regresses.

 

[Hodge]

If Couture is really out. Would it make sense to sign Marchessault, to a two year? I don't think he'd sign with SJ but I like the idea of him on the wing with Celebrini. I've always thought he was a good locker room guy too.

He'd be a perfect fit. Offer him 10Mx3, who cares. I'd much rather have Marchessault than Stamkos.

 

[PacificOceanPotion]

Could you imagine Stamkos’s influence on Celebrini and Smith in that locker room…Yes please. It’s very unlikely but it’s a fun thought nonetheless.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I certainly wouldn't even pencil Afanasyev into a 3rd line role, but with the scoring ability he showed last year, it seems possible that he could end up growing into such a role, maybe getting a chance there if there are injuries or someone like Kostin regresses.

That would be awesome. I just don’t think it’s reasonable to pencil him in anywhere but the fourth line at is point.

 

[LadyStanley]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1805334638103347268

https://x.com/i/web/status/1805335197908693500

 

[timorous me]

That would be awesome. I just don’t think it’s reasonable to pencil him in anywhere but the fourth line at is point.

Yup. And I definitely like his odds of making it in such a role compared to Ozzy!

 

[LadyStanley]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1805331052887785564

Not him

 

[LadyStanley]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1805337407598084561

https://x.com/i/web/status/1805339943646150884

https://x.com/i/web/status/1805340692480508077

https://x.com/i/web/status/1805339891028705442