Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Pinkfloyd]

As soon as possible without A) trading any of our own future 1sts until we make the playoffs and B) committing more than 3 years to anyone over the age of 30.

I don't see what about #14 makes it okay to trade it but not our own future 1sts until we make the playoffs. We need those assets more than we need Necas.

 

[Hodge]

I don't see what about #14 makes it okay to trade it but not our own future 1sts until we make the playoffs. We need those assets more than we need Necas.

If one of our own future 1sts ends up being a 14th overall pick I would advocate for trading that in a package for a Necas level player as well. I just wouldn't move any of them in advance of knowing where they'll land in the draft order.

 

[Jargon]

Personally, I’m gonna assume that both Draisaitl and McDavid are signing with us in free agency until proven otherwise.

You don’t need defense if your forward group looks like this:

Eklund-McDavid-Draisaitl
Musty-Celebrini-MBN
Bystedt-Smith-Zetterlund
Kunin-Sturm-Edstrom

Switch Celebrini and Kunin and I think we may have something here

 

[Pinkfloyd]

If one of our own future 1sts ends up being a 14th overall pick I would advocate for trading that in a package for a Necas level player as well. I just wouldn't move any of them in advance of knowing where they'll land in the draft order.

We'd still be a team outside the playoff picture needing likely multiple pieces to compete for a playoff spot let alone competing in the playoffs themselves. Feels like you want to rush things.

 

[Lebanezer]

As soon as possible without A) trading any of our own future 1sts until we make the playoffs and B) committing more than 3 years to anyone over the age of 30.

How many years do you expect that to take? The sharks are 3-4 dmen and 4-6 forwards away from being competitive.

 

[jMoneyBrah]

To expand on @TealManV’s proposal for Jersey. What about working the deal with Calgary to help fill in some blanks:

Flames
+ 14th overall (SJS)
+ 2025 3rd (NJD)
+ Holtz
+ Bordeleau
+ Rutta (50% retained by NJD)
- Markstrom (50% retained)
- R. Andersson

Devils
+ Markstrom (50% retained by CGY)
+ 42nd overall (NJD → SJS → NJD)
- Holtz
- 10th overall
- 2025 3rd

Sharks
+ R. Andersson
+ 10th overall
- 14th overall
- 42nd overall
- Bordeleau
- Rutta

Flame away

 

[Juxtaposer]

To expand on @TealManV’s proposal for Jersey. What about working the deal with Calgary to help fill in some blanks:

:
+ 14th overall (SJS)
+ 2025 3rd (NJD)
+ Holtz
+ Bordeleau
+ Rutta (50% retained by NJD)
- Markstrom (50% retained)
- R. Andersson

:
+ Markstrom (50% retained by CGY)
+ 42nd overall (NJD → SJS → NJD)
- Holtz
- 10th overall
- 2025 3rd

:
+ R. Andersson
+ 10th overall
- 14th overall
- 42nd overall
- Bordeleau
- Rutta

Flame away

Dude, you ripped off the Flames hard. They’re giving up Markstrom and Andersson for 14th overall and scraps. Meanwhile, we’re upgrading from 14 to 10 using 42 and getting a legit prime-aged two-way #1 RHD for Bordeleau and Rutta.

 

[Lebanezer]

To expand on @TealManV’s proposal for Jersey. What about working the deal with Calgary to help fill in some blanks:

Flames
+ 14th overall (SJS)
+ 2025 3rd (NJD)
+ Holtz
+ Bordeleau
+ Rutta (50% retained by NJD)
- Markstrom (50% retained)
- R. Andersson

Devils
+ Markstrom (50% retained by CGY)
+ 42nd overall (NJD → SJS → NJD)
- Holtz
- 10th overall
- 2025 3rd

Sharks
+ R. Andersson
+ 10th overall
- 14th overall
- 42nd overall
- Bordeleau
- Rutta

Flame away

Why are Markstrom and Andersson worth that much? Markstrom is 34 years old with one good season in his career. Andresson is a fine mid pairing dman, but no way they're worth that much.

 

[Lebanezer]

Dude, you ripped off the Flames hard. They’re giving up Markstrom and Andersson for 14th overall and scraps. Meanwhile, we’re upgrading from 14 to 10 using 42 and getting a legit prime-aged two-way #1 RHD for Bordeleau and Rutta.

Oh, fascinating, we're on opposite ends of the spectrum here.

 

[Hodge]

How many years do you expect that to take? The sharks are 3-4 dmen and 4-6 forwards away from being competitive.

As soon as the 2025-26 season I think Celebrini, Smith, Eklund and Necas can form the basis of a competitive top six. Zetterlund, Granlund, Couture, Drury, Sturm, Kunin, Musty, Bystedt, Edstrom and any other forwards we sign or trade for over the next two offseasons would be candidates for the remaining slots up front.

We should have around $40 million in cap space to spend on defensemen and goalies. Unless we get exceedingly lucky this probably won't include a true #1D which is why we need to keep our own 1sts to try and draft one. In the meantime I think we can get by with six top 4 level defensemen. Hopefully Mukhamadullin is one of them by 25-26. We should be able to sign one with all our cap space this offseason. Then we can try to package the Vegas 1st next year for another established top 4 D and sign a few others.

 

[Sendhelplease]

To expand on @TealManV’s proposal for Jersey. What about working the deal with Calgary to help fill in some blanks:

Flames
+ 14th overall (SJS)
+ 2025 3rd (NJD)
+ Holtz
+ Bordeleau
+ Rutta (50% retained by NJD)
- Markstrom (50% retained)
- R. Andersson

Devils
+ Markstrom (50% retained by CGY)
+ 42nd overall (NJD → SJS → NJD)
- Holtz
- 10th overall
- 2025 3rd

Sharks
+ R. Andersson
+ 10th overall
- 14th overall
- 42nd overall
- Bordeleau
- Rutta

Flame away

Trading for 10 from 14 would likely cost us the 42 pick. I don't think we can acquire Rasmus Andersson for Bordeleau and Rutta.

 

[Hodge]

We'd still be a team outside the playoff picture needing likely multiple pieces to compete for a playoff spot let alone competing in the playoffs themselves. Feels like you want to rush things.

Except that we would now have one of those pieces - a 1st line right shot RW in his prime - with the ability to lock him down on a good contract. Instead of a mystery box 14th overall pick, Ferraro who isn't long for this team anyway and a few mediocre prospects. As @DG93 pointed out, I'm not sure Carolina even does it.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Oh, fascinating, we're on opposite ends of the spectrum here.

Totally possible that I’m the one overrating Andersson! But I see a 27 year old RHD who has historically had good underlying numbers, can put up 35-40 points, and is solid defensively, all while on a sweetheart contract for two more years (ie enough time to convince him to stick around after it’s up). One of the few players who might be moved that I’d be willing to move #14 for.

Either way, you have to admit that getting Andersson for Bordeleau and Rutta would be highway robbery, no?

 

[LadyStanley]

 

[Jargon]

We have 38 million in capspace this summer, that's... bananas. I'm so very curious to know what Grier is going to do this summer. I think, obviously, so much depends on whether Smith/Celebrini are playing or going back to college.

 

[cheechoo]

I reiterate my 14 + 42 + Ferraro + Halttunen + Cagnoni for Necas + Drury proposal or @Stewie Griffin ’s amended version which was 14 + Ferraro + one of Bystedt, Halttunen or Edstrom for Necas.

A year minimum too early for me man.

I'm

a) personally not ready to make a statement move like that in our stage of the rebuild
b) unsure if Necas is the guy worth spunking those assets for anyways

Although In a vacuum when trying to evaluate the deal, I'm totally on the fence which probably means that the value is fine.

 

[jMoneyBrah]

Why are Markstrom and Andersson worth that much? Markstrom is 34 years old with one good season in his career. Andresson is a fine mid pairing dman, but no way they're worth that much.

Trading for 10 from 14 would likely cost us the 42 pick. I don't think we can acquire Rasmus Andersson for Bordeleau and Rutta.

Totally possible that I’m the one overrating Andersson! But I see a 27 year old RHD who has historically had good underlying numbers, can put up 35-40 points, and is solid defensively, all while on a sweetheart contract for two more years (ie enough time to convince him to stick around after it’s up). One of the few players who might be moved that I’d be willing to move #14 for.

Either way, you have to admit that getting Andersson for Bordeleau and Rutta would be highway robbery, no?

I could be off on values, and in honesty, am not sure how Calgary values Andersson. My attempt here was less to hit some equilibrium on some value rating scale, but more attempt to get each org something’s I think they’d value:

Calgary
I think they want to get a 1st for Markstrom. From glancing at the reporting it seems like they had some deal on the table for a late first and ultimately didn’t pull that trigger. This deal gets them a first within that top 15-16 tier. Additionally some young roster forwards who come with some pedigree in Holtz and Bordeleau. I know these types tend to hold less value on HF, but I think a team in Calgary’s situation may value some skilled young middle 6 forwards with some room to grow.

Rutta serves as a stop gap solution at RD to partially offset Andersson. At 50% retention, should he have a solid season I could see the Flames retaining and flipping him at the deadline for an asset. Nothing crazy, but solid vet RD depth for basically no cap space would probably garner some interest at the deadline, or could be an extra chip to push a deal across the line.

Flames walk away with a top 15 pick, another top 100 pick, 2 young forwards with some upside, and a very cheap solid vet RD as a deadline chip.

Devils
They get the goalie they’ve been reported as targeting, at only $3M in cap space, for two playoff runs and upgrade their 3rd round pick by 32 positions.

Sharks
Move up 4 positions from their 14th pick and add a solid second pairing RD.

The fact that I even feel the need to expound on the benefits for Calgary at greater length than the Devils or Sharks probably means it’s a stretch. I invite any contributions from others on this framework.

 

[Star Platinum]

We have 38 million in capspace this summer, that's... bananas. I'm so very curious to know what Grier is going to do this summer. I think, obviously, so much depends on whether Smith/Celebrini are playing or going back to college.

This is when you need to be cautious. Bad teams use these opportunities to overpay guys that aren't really stars and they have to overpay them because you're bringing them into your bad team when they could take a more market value type deal to play for a better team. They then burn up all their available cap space on guys that they won't be able to trade later because they overpaid them and they won't get good enough results to have made it worth their while. Instead of being a bottom of the lottery team, they become top of the lottery teams who aren't in a position to draft the impact players that they actually need and they are never able to take that next step into being playoff teams.

The right move in this situation is to be patient and understand that the importance going forward in free agency is to maintain flexibility, not get tied down into bad long-term contracts like the ones they just finished dumping, and stick with short-term reasonable deals with guys who are genuine NHL players and otherwise maintain as much cap space as they can because it will enable them to take on other team's salary cap dumps when they have to get rid of their players for 50 cents on the dollar.

Regardless of whether Celebrini and Smith are here (and they better be if they want people to buy tickets), they have to fill out a roster though. I think if the young guys are here though, it puts a little more pressure on them to find the right kinds of guys who can both do the job and be good role models for the young guys. If the young guys are going to go back to college and waste a year of development, then as far as I'm concerned, they can fill out the roster any way they want as long as they don't do any long-term deals and just plan on repeating the tank and draft high strategy from this season. But any potential coaching candidate that might come on board isn't gonna want to come into a tank and draft scenario unless it's the only job left.

 

[Juxtaposer]

CBJ’s wild spending last summer (Severson, Provorov, etc.) should be a cautionary tale for us…

 

[Jargon]

This is when you need to be cautious. Bad teams use these opportunities to overpay guys that aren't really stars and they have to overpay them because you're bringing them into your bad team when they could take a more market value type deal to play for a better team. They then burn up all their available cap space on guys that they won't be able to trade later because they overpaid them and they won't get good enough results to have made it worth their while. Instead of being a bottom of the lottery team, they become top of the lottery teams who aren't in a position to draft the impact players that they actually need and they are never to take that next step into being playoff teams.

The right move in this situation is to be patient and understand that the importance going forward in free agency is to maintain flexibility, not get tied down into bad long-term contracts like the ones they just finished dumping, and stick with short-term reasonable deals with guys who are genuine NHL players and otherwise maintain as much cap space as they can because it will enable them to take on other team's salary cap dumps when they have to get rid of their players for 50 cents on the dollar.

Regardless of whether Celebrini and Smith are here (and they better be if they want people to buy tickets), they have to fill out a roster though. I think if the young guys are here though, it puts a little more pressure on them to find the right kinds of guys who can both do the job and be good role models for the young guys. If the young guys are going to go back to college and waste a year of development, then as far as I'm concerned, they can fill out the roster any way they want as long as they don't do any long-term deals and just plan on repeating the tank and draft high strategy from this season. But any potential coaching candidate that might come on board isn't gonna want to come into a tank and draft scenario unless it's the only job left.

Yeah agreed, I'd be fine overpaying vets in money but not in term. We need mentors and stopgaps but I don't want to be tied into a 39 year old Stamkos. I think it's pretty clear that Grier is approaching it with a similar mind, though.

 

[DG93]

CBJ’s wild spending last summer (Severson, Provorov, etc.) should be a cautionary tale for us…

Definitely agree, gotta be cautious with that

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Except that we would now have one of those pieces - a 1st line right shot RW in his prime - with the ability to lock him down on a good contract. Instead of a mystery box 14th overall pick, Ferraro who isn't long for this team anyway and a few mediocre prospects. As @DG93 pointed out, I'm not sure Carolina even does it.

So? Using assets for a position like that when we need a full rehaul of the blue line and need the draft in all likelihood to produce a 1D for us to build a competitive core is probably not a great idea. The other thing is that forwards aren't exactly difficult to replace or produce in our situation. Our problem is going to be the blue line and if we don't want to do what we did to Thornton, we need to invest there and efficiently.

 

[sharski]

We have 38 million in capspace this summer, that's... bananas. I'm so very curious to know what Grier is going to do this summer. I think, obviously, so much depends on whether Smith/Celebrini are playing or going back to college.

they should just use that money to "take care" of the Comcast television contract situation

 

[Cas]

We have zero reason to spend above the cap floor next season, save to take other team's cap dumps for a fee, and maybe get a defenseman worth a damn.

Save the money for when we're ready to actually make a splash in two years.

 

[spintops]

I don't want to trade any first yet, or spend on any big ticket guys. Tank for one last season and then try to supplement the roster, also gives these fringe guys one last shot at making the roster.

Next year we can look to spend futures - Say the Vegas pick if they make the playoffs.