Speculation: 2023-24-25 Sharks Roster Discussion

[TheBeard]

That's probably the level of addition we're realistically looking at, not because Grier will think it's a piece to round us into a formidable defense, but because it's a piece that brings legitimate improvement without a crippling commitment or asset cost

Also, Hakanpaa would unironically be one of our 4 best defensemen, lol, god we are so bad

I don't. Especially if we're going to be bringing up a couple of kids. They have to be sheltered much the same way Chicago tried to shelter Bedrd by bringing in Foligno, Perry and Hall - it just didn't work out for them. Their defense at least is somewhat stout with Seth Jones, Korchinski, a decent Vlasic and Murphy (when healthy). But Hoffman is gone, Barabanov is gone, Logan is probably done, Labanc is gone, Lindblom is gone, Zadina may be gone, MacDonald, Bailey, Carpenter... there will be a lot of openings that can't all be filled with rookies or AHL-fodder.

 

[weastern bias]

You might want to go look at actual ages for when players were drafted.

Smith was drafted 2 months after turning 18, Eichel was drafted 3 months before he turned 19.

Eichels season of which he would be the same age as smith (now) would of been his USHL/NTDP season where he put up 45 in 25 games in the USHL and 87 points in 53 games in the NTDP.

I'm not talking about their ages when they were drafted, I'm talking about their ages during their rookie season in college

Eichel turned 18 in October of his freshman year

Smith turned 19 in March of his freshman year

So I was off in the "whole year older", but he was in fact 7 months older, still a substantial difference when talking about young athletes in a delicate point of their physical development playing in a league against players much more grown than they are at that point

When Eichel was the age Smith is now he was scoring 20 goals and 50 points in the NHL

 

[Mr Fahrenheit]

Back in the old days, people used to talk about what a losing culture Detroit had built and that Yzerman was the biggest loser of all. This is from a NYT article in 1998. They won one more after these two.

Yzerman was captain in 1986 for a "rebuilding squad" and they didn't win their first one for 11 more years. Including a brutal loss to the fledgling Sharks.

View attachment 849428

Those Red Wing teams werent seen as losing cultures, they were cant get over the hump/choking teams like our Sharks were viewed. They were top seeds and winning Presidents Trophies, which isnt a losing culture. They finally won when Yzerman famously changed his game

 

[coooldude]

Those Red Wing teams werent seen as losing cultures, they were cant get over the hump/choking teams like our Sharks were viewed. They were top seeds and winning Presidents Trophies, which isnt a losing culture. They finally won when Yzerman famously changed his game

And what were they seen as from the 70's to late 80's?

 

[Barrie22]

I'm not talking about their ages when they were drafted, I'm talking about their ages during their rookie season in college

Eichel turned 18 in October of his freshman year

Smith turned 19 in March of his freshman year

So I was off in the "whole year older", but he was in fact 7 months older, still a substantial difference when talking about young athletes in a delicate point of their physical development playing in a league against players much more grown than they are at that point

When Eichel was the age Smith is now he was scoring 20 goals and 50 points in the NHL

And Smith might just be putting up NHL numbers at the age of 19 also. Unless you can see the future.

 

[weastern bias]

I don't. Especially if we're going to be bringing up a couple of kids. They have to be sheltered much the same way Chicago tried to shelter Bedrd by bringing in Foligno, Perry and Hall - it just didn't work out for them. Their defense at least is somewhat stout with Seth Jones, Korchinski, a decent Vlasic and Murphy (when healthy). But Hoffman is gone, Barabanov is gone, Logan is probably done, Labanc is gone, Lindblom is gone, Zadina may be gone, MacDonald, Bailey, Carpenter... there will be a lot of openings that can't all be filled with rookies or AHL-fodder.

So who would we add to shelter the players? There are no impact UFAs who will sign here this summer without a massive financial commitment (to someone like get Pesce we'd probably have to pay him like a #1D with term, if we're offering market value he can get it from a competitive team instead)

And if we look at a trade what are we sending off? We are officially out of valuable expendable resources on the roster, everything of value is either a draft pick or a prospect, and we can't afford to trade those away, accruing them is the whole point of the rebuild in the first place, if we trade picks and prospects we have literally nothing to build around

We're going to be adding, but it's going to be more Benning/Burroughs/Addison level players that can be had for cheap, we simply lack expendable assets right now outside of cap space, and the biggest mistake we could possibly make is getting ourselves back into cap trouble before we even start to be respectable, let alone competitive

 

[Mr Fahrenheit]

And what were they seen as from the 70's to late 80's?

Dead Things, Is that related to anything or is this one of those "I want to hear myself talk" things

 

[coooldude]

If we finish 1OA and Macklin isn't our Stamkos or MacKinnon then the rebuild has been set back by a decade. To do what they did this year, win the lotto and him be a bust is the worst possible thing that could happen to this organization.

No, the worst thing that could happen to this organization is if we never traded Burns, never traded Meier, never traded EK65, never traded Hertl, and were struggling through a dead roster with no hope and no cap space.

Look, I think the fact is that you'd rather be a fan of a Minnesota-style team than a team that risks everything to possibly build a real contender. There simply aren't teams that contend right now that didn't tank, aside from the obvious outlier which is Vegas.

You're most upset at those of us who are happy to tank for a future chance at success, and you aren't budging an inch and neither are we. It's different kinds of fandom. One year, and a 25.5% chance at just ONE piece of like 4-5 pieces we need, is not enough tanking to compete in the modern era.

You can point out Edmonton all you want, but they're a contender. Rangers are a contender. Devils are a contender. Avs won. Hawks won. Blues won (yes, it was a tank). Pens won. Lightning won. Vancouver is a contender. These were all tank jobs who were roundly criticized as failed at some point along the way.

The only outliers (actually competitive teams who did not fully tank) are Nashville, Dallas, and Vegas. Nashville has basically been a middling team forever and has never been a true contender. Dallas may finally do it post-cap, but it'll be on the back of either insanely better drafting or insanely lucky drafting. All the other contenders were built through tanking. All the other messes may also be tanks. It's a 50/50 shot at building a real team, or a 100% chance of being mediocre. You get to choose what you're OK with. I'm OK with bottom 3 next year, bottom 5 the year after, and probably still bottom 10 the year after that. We may end up dead last next year no matter what we do. So all this feels like pissing in the wind

 

[weastern bias]

And Smith might just be putting up NHL numbers at the age of 19 also. Unless you can see the future.

I'm not saying he couldn't right now, I think Smith looks like he'll be a very good player, but I agree with Hodge that he and Eichel don't have comparable rookie NCAA seasons because of the massive age difference and as such are not comparable prospects

When I see Smith, I see Mitch Marner with worse defense, and that is an awesome player, I'm super excited about him, but I don't think he's a foundational piece

He's a guy you build with, not a guy you build around, and we need those too, but he's not saving the franchise by himself

 

[TheBeard]

No, the worst thing that could happen to this organization is if we never traded Burns, never traded Meier, never traded EK65, never traded Hertl, and were struggling through a dead roster with no hope and no cap space.

Look, I think the fact is that you'd rather be a fan of a Minnesota-style team than a team that risks everything to possibly build a real contender. There simply aren't teams that contend right now that didn't tank, aside from the obvious outlier which is Vegas.

You're most upset at those of us who are happy to tank for a future chance at success, and you aren't budging an inch and neither are we. It's different kinds of fandom. One year, and a 25.5% chance at just ONE piece of like 4-5 pieces we need, is not enough tanking to compete in the modern era.

You can point out Edmonton all you want, but they're a contender. Rangers are a contender. Devils are a contender. Avs won. Hawks won. Blues won (yes, it was a tank). Pens won. Lightning won. Vancouver is a contender. These were all tank jobs who were roundly criticized as failed at some point along the way.

The only outliers (actually competitive teams who did not fully tank) are Nashville, Dallas, and Vegas. Nashville has basically been a middling team forever and has never been a true contender. Dallas may finally do it post-cap, but it'll be on the back of either insanely better drafting or insanely lucky drafting. All the other contenders were built through tanking. All the other messes may also be tanks. It's a 50/50 shot at building a real team, or a 100% chance of being mediocre. You get to choose what you're OK with. I'm OK with bottom 3 next year, bottom 5 the year after, and probably still bottom 10 the year after that. We may end up dead last next year no matter what we do. So all this feels like pissing in the wind.

When the hell did the Rangers tank???? When did Vancouver tank??? Having a bad season isn't the same as tanking.

Edmonton, for as good as Leon is, would still be a non-playoff team if it weren't for one single player. Everyone else, like Hyman, were brought in with shrewd signings. Skinner was a revelation drafted in the third round. Edmonton could have stunk for one single season, got Connor and be in the exact same boat they're in now.

 

[TheBeard]

So who would we add to shelter the players? There are no impact UFAs who will sign here this summer without a massive financial commitment (to someone like get Pesce we'd probably have to pay him like a #1D with term, if we're offering market value he can get it from a competitive team instead)

And if we look at a trade what are we sending off? We are officially out of valuable expendable resources on the roster, everything of value is either a draft pick or a prospect, and we can't afford to trade those away, accruing them is the whole point of the rebuild in the first place, if we trade picks and prospects we have literally nothing to build around

We're going to be adding, but it's going to be more Benning/Burroughs/Addison level players that can be had for cheap, we simply lack expendable assets right now outside of cap space, and the biggest mistake we could possibly make is getting ourselves back into cap trouble before we even start to be respectable, let alone competitive

I don't think any of Hall, Foligno or Perry are seen as "impact UFAs". You could be a fringe 3rd liner and be better than the plethora of nobodies about to leave the organization. And the team is going to HAVE to add more than the million dollar nobodies because currently they're 13 million under the floor. They're 38 million dollars below the cap ceiling. Wanna bring in someone who isn't a marquee name that would help? Look for the Oliver Kylingtons or the league.

 

[weastern bias]

When the hell did the Rangers tank???? When did Vancouver tank??? Having a bad season isn't the same as tanking.

Vancouver drafted Petterson by finishing 2nd last in the league and Hughes by finishing tied for 5th last in the league in back to back years, they definitely tanked

The Rangers didn't exactly tank, but they won back to back lottery picks that supplemented their core, they are a weird example though because their #1D was a drafted college player who publicly declared he wouldn't sign anywhere but New York, they're not comparable to us because they are an attractive UFA destination, we'd never get a Panarin to sign here, he'd just use us for leverage

The fact is that winners are built on high draft picks, even "outlier" Dallas won the 3rd pick in the lottery and he's their #1D now, it's just how teams turn it around, it's literally why the draft works the way it does

 

[Stewie Griffin]

When the hell did the Rangers tank???? When did Vancouver tank??? Having a bad season isn't the same as tanking.

The Rangers literally sent out letters to their fans stating they were going through a rebuild. The only reason their rebuild didn't take that long is because Fox basically forced his way to them and randomly become a Norris caliber defensemen, Panarin signed in free agency, and they won back-to-back lotteries. They drafted in the top-10 4 times from 2017-2022.

 

[coooldude]

When the hell did the Rangers tank???? When did Vancouver tank??? Having a bad season isn't the same as tanking.

The Canucks have made the playoffs twice in the past 11 years. They didn't go down to the studs but they drafted top 10 6 times (11th once and of those 5th twice). They even traded one of their crown jewels in Horvat - "failed rebuild." Last year they drafted 11OA.

The Rangers drafted 1OA and 2OA on the backs of draft lottery wins in poor seasons. They've retooled somewhat well and have the free agent advantage of NYC and O6, but still missed the playoffs 4 of the last 8 years and built assets for trading or signing through the draft (Cuylle, K'andre Miller, etc etc). Not a pure tank job like all the other examples I gave but definitely not a good example either of "Sharks should try to add in Free Agency in 2024."

I said full tank jobs are 50/50. You keep pointing out the 50% that haven't succeeded. I continue to point you toward the 50% that did.

 

[Hodge]

So you'd prefer us tanking again is what you're saying.

If we don't land Celebrini then I would prefer to "tank" although again I'm not suggesting anything dramatic like shipping out our goalies. Just run it back for at least one more season and reassess in summer 2025.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

I still don't understand how some people think you can build a cup-contending roster without top-5 picks. Every cup winning team has them. And since we're not a huge FA market...we have to draft them.

Either way though, anyone can tell no matter who we sign in FA this team is going finish bottom-10 at least the next 3 years. The last thing we want to do is rush a rebuild and then still be looking for pieces. Teams like the Kings and Leafs tried to compete after a short rebuild and have struggled in the playoffs because they lack D and goaltending. We need to be patient to acquire lots of talent in all areas, and hope they develop properly.

 

[weastern bias]

I don't think any of Hall, Foligno or Perry are seen as "impact UFAs". You could be a fringe 3rd liner and be better than the plethora of nobodies about to leave the organization. And the team is going to HAVE to add more than the million dollar nobodies because currently they're 13 million under the floor. They're 38 million dollars below the cap ceiling. Wanna bring in someone who isn't a marquee name that would help? Look for the Oliver Kylingtons or the league.

The Hall trade is absolutely the kind of move I could see Grier making, he basically did the same thing with Duclair last summer, pouncing on a cap team and picking a valuable player off them for a discount because they need the relief

Both Foligno and Perry were massive overpayments but they only got one year deals, if Mike can make that happen I'm totally on board, but my worry is about committing term, not dollars, we're not as sexy of a sell to aging vets as "play with Bedard on an O6 franchise" even if we overpay like crazy, I'm not interested in those moves if we commit any more than a single season

 

[TheBeard]

The Rangers literally sent out letters to their fans stating they were going through a rebuild. The only reason their rebuild didn't take that long is because Fox basically forced his way to them and randomly become a Norris caliber defensemen, Panarin signed in free agency, and they won back-to-back lotteries. They drafted in the top-10 4 times from 2017-2022.

There's a big difference between rebuilding and tanking. Rangers never tanked. Even in their worst years they were playing all their kids - Zibanajad, Kreider, Buch, Chytil, Georgiev. They couldn't tank because that NY market wouldn't have allowed it. Rangers never won back-to-back lottos as KK was a 2nd overall and Lafreniere they won despite being in the qualifying rounds of the Covid Playoffs. It was as if the NHL refused to let them tank because the market was too big.

The Hall trade is absolutely the kind of move I could see Grier making, he basically did the same thing with Duclair last summer, pouncing on a cap team and picking a valuable player off them for a discount because they need the relief

Both Foligno and Perry were massive overpayments but they only got one year deals, if Mike can make that happen I'm totally on board, but my worry is about committing term, not dollars, we're not as sexy of a sell to aging vets as "play with Bedard on an O6 franchise" even if we overpay like crazy, I'm not interested in those moves if we commit any more than a single season

I agree. I think 2 maaaaybe 3 years for someone still in their 20s is what I'd prefer, but again we may not have a say. Taylor Hall this year would have been our best offensive player (if he were healthy).

 

[Cas]

I'm not talking about their ages when they were drafted, I'm talking about their ages during their rookie season in college

Eichel turned 18 in October of his freshman year

Smith turned 19 in March of his freshman year

So I was off in the "whole year older", but he was in fact 7 months older, still a substantial difference when talking about young athletes in a delicate point of their physical development playing in a league against players much more grown than they are at that point

When Eichel was the age Smith is now he was scoring 20 goals and 50 points in the NHL

Also are scoring rates in the NCAA the same today as they were in 2014-15?

 

[TheBeard]

The Canucks have made the playoffs twice in the past 11 years. They didn't go down to the studs but they drafted top 10 6 times (11th once and of those 5th twice). They even traded one of their crown jewels in Horvat - "failed rebuild." Last year they drafted 11OA.

The Rangers drafted 1OA and 2OA on the backs of draft lottery wins in poor seasons. They've retooled somewhat well and have the free agent advantage of NYC and O6, but still missed the playoffs 4 of the last 8 years and built assets for trading or signing through the draft (Cuylle, K'andre Miller, etc etc). Not a pure tank job like all the other examples I gave but definitely not a good example either of "Sharks should try to add in Free Agency in 2024."

I said full tank jobs are 50/50. You keep pointing out the 50% that haven't succeeded. I continue to point you toward the 50% that did.

I mean you could also look at any number of teams that tanked and still haven't made any headway. Rangers had no business winning the Lafreniere sweepstakes after still managing to sneak into qualifying round. It was a very sketchy result where the winner of the lotto was an "at large" team from the playoff contenders.

 

[weastern bias]

There's a big difference between rebuilding and tanking. Rangers never tanked. Even in their worst years they were playing all their kids - Zibanajad, Kreider, Buch, Chytil, Georgiev. They couldn't tank because that NY market wouldn't have allowed it. Rangers never won back-to-back lottos as KK was a 2nd overall and Lafreniere they won despite being in the qualifying rounds of the Covid Playoffs. It was as if the NHL refused to let them tank because the market was too big.


I agree. I think 2 maaaaybe 3 years for someone still in their 20s is what I'd prefer, but again we may not have a say. Taylor Hall this year would have been our best offensive player (if he were healthy).

The 2nd overall pick was still a lottery pick, they had to win that one as well

If a player in his 20s is desperate enough to sign here he's probably not a good enough player to commit even 2 years to, be need to proceed with caution, we can't be married to any players until we have homegrown talent in the organization worth building around

 

[Stewie Griffin]

There's a big difference between rebuilding and tanking. Rangers never tanked. Even in their worst years they were playing all their kids - Zibanajad, Kreider, Buch, Chytil, Georgiev.

And SJ does not have talent like that. Yeah we traded Meier and Hertl...because we had no freaking assets so trading them was the only way to acquire some. As a result of bad drafting by DW in the last few years, we've had no young talent like that ready to play, hence why we're so bad right now.

Rangers never won back-to-back lottos as KK was a 2nd overall and Lafreniere they won despite being in the qualifying rounds of the Covid Playoffs.

Is this a typo? Yes they won back to back lottos and you even acknowledged who they were.

It was as if the NHL refused to let them tank because the market was too big.

So adding to my first point about how we didn't have the assets like the Rangers at the beginning of our rebuild, and considering we're not a big market like NYC...how else can we acquire top talent without tanking?

 

[TheBeard]

I still don't understand how some people think you can build a cup-contending roster without top-5 picks. Every cup winning team has them. And since we're not a huge FA market...we have to draft them.

Either way though, anyone can tell no matter who we sign in FA this team is going finish bottom-10 at least the next 3 years. The last thing we want to do is rush a rebuild and then still be looking for pieces. Teams like the Kings and Leafs tried to compete after a short rebuild and have struggled in the playoffs because they lack D and goaltending. We need to be patient to acquire lots of talent in all areas, and hope they develop properly.

I don't think I'm saying that at all. I've made it clear that were still going to suck this year even with Will Smith at 4th, Eklund at 7 and Whomever at 1 or 2 or 3 this year. Chances are we're still picking top 5 next year.

If we're still a bottom ten team 3 years from now, when Bordeleau is 25, and Eklund is 24 and Smith is 22 and whomever this year is 21 or so and Edstrom and Musty are 22-ish (not to mention guys like Zetterlund in their prime), and Shakir and Thompson and Thrun and Emberson even in their mid 20s, then Grier has failed.

The 2nd overall pick was still a lottery pick, they had to win that one as well

If a player in his 20s is desperate enough to sign here he's probably not a good enough player to commit even 2 years to, be need to proceed with caution, we can't be married to any players until we have homegrown talent in the organization worth building around

Rangers moved up from 6th in that lotto as well. Hell, there were 4 teams worse than them in the Eastern Conference alone.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

If we're still a bottom ten team 3 years from now,

We will be. There isn't enough talent in the system, or veterans on the roster where there is any scenario we're not bottom 10 in 3 years.

We're basically in year 2 of the rebuild. Most guys we draft are at least 3 years away from even coming to the AHL team let alone making the NHL.

I actually want to hear your thoughts on how we can not be bottom 10 in such a short span? Have you seen how long Anaheim has been bottom 10? Ottawa?

 

[TheBeard]

and SJ does not have talent like that. Yeah we traded Meier and Hertl...because we had no freaking assets so trading them was the only way to acquire some. As a result of bad drafting by DW in the last few years, we've had no young talent like that ready to play, hence why we're so bad right now.

Hindsight is 20/20, but at the time Neither Mika nor Kreider looked to be much more than 3rd liners. Mika only found a spot with NY because the Rangers needed salary cap flexibility. These players are out there and that's what makes contenders contenders as much as excellent drafting. At this point we've had three solid years of drafting not to mention the pieces we've obtained through trades. The team does have young talent ready to play, it's just a question of Grier's patience and commitment to his timeline.