Speculation: 2023-2024 General Lightning Discussion - Part 5

[DFC]

I expect him to get absolutely exposed defensively playing top players night in and out without any cushion in front of him. I wouldn't be surprised if his offense barely increases either, there's no Kucherov in Utah to pass to.

100% on the defense. Offensively I think he'll be fine. Kucherov might have turned him into a 70 point player with full time on PP1, but Sergachev couldn't hang onto that role when he had the chance, mainly, I think, because his defense somehow got even worse.

But with a team like Utah, somebody needs to score. Sergachev will be in position to get points. I think 50 is the floor for him, on a bad PP, so long as he can hold the spot.

One of the dumbest things I've read. Those guys aren't faking injuries genius, sure they're taking advantage of the situation by getting paid but they are absolutely on career ending injuries, no dolt actually believes you can magically go on LTIR to collect a paycheck (well I guess some of you do believe it)

They also aren't getting their retirement ceremonies or anything until after their contract expires which just looks stupid, Price won't be officially honored or retired until almost 6 years after his last game. I guarantee you Stamkos is a person who would want to go out on his own terms.

Yeah. I also think Stamkos will age better than we assume. I mean, his numbers were inflated here for sure, but I think a 36 and 37 year old Stamkos will be a good hockey player. Just not close to an 8m player.

My guess is he's got 60ish points in him this year as a pp specialist and then he becomes a long term 45-55 point guy.

 

[Sky04]

100% on the defense. Offensively I think he'll be fine. Kucherov might have turned him into a 70 point player with full time on PP1, but Sergachev couldn't hang onto that role when he had the chance, mainly, I think, because his defense somehow got even worse.

But with a team like Utah, somebody needs to score. Sergachev will be in position to get points. I think 50 is the floor for him, on a bad PP, so long as he can hold the spot.


Yeah. I also think Stamkos will age better than we assume. I mean, his numbers were inflated here for sure, but I think a 36 and 37 year old Stamkos will be a good hockey player. Just not close to an 8m player.

My guess is he's got 60ish points in him this year as a pp specialist and then he becomes a long term 45-55 point guy.

His fitness is what will keep him around, he can absolutely put up points in the right situation. That's not his problem though, it's that outside of raw production his game is very hollow - there's not much to it which I assume is the biggest reason JBB doesn't see value in him. Situated perfectly he can "look" good production wise but he isn't elevating anyone, he isn't driving play or holding possession, these are things everybody knows about his game but some choose to ignore, I doubt that goes above a guy who watches every single game like JBB does.

Nightmare situation for a numbers guy like JBB, tons of emotion tied to a player who pretty fails all the analytics. Love Stamkos as a person, I'll pass on the player at this point in his career though. Like you said I could see him regress to a ~60 point player as early as next season.

This signing makes less sense for Nashville the more you think about it, they already have all star LW with a right handed shot, Forsberg (I'm still choked we passed on this guy from 2012 btw) is a significantly better player than Stamkos right now and they play the same spot on the PP. ROR is a much better center and they just signed JAM who's a RW. They paid Stamkos 8M to play with Tommy Novak on the 2nd line? lol?

 

[Todd1a]

Our forward group is complete trash still we legit need a top 6 RW added .

We have legit 4 forwards who are good GUENTZEL, hagel , Kucherov, and point

Cirell and Paul are 3rd liners basically

Other then that this forward group isn’t winning a cup

 

[RLP55]

Top 6 forward and upgrade at RHD seems to be the forum’s focus.

But, how’s the board feel about JJ at backup goalie?

 

[Point21]

Top 6 forward and upgrade at RHD seems to be the forum’s focus.

But, how’s the board feel about JJ at backup goalie?

JJ is fine, next year should be interesting since we dont have a backup signed and nobody really in the system with Hugo going back to Sweden.

as for upgrades on RD, i would really like us to take a shot at Boqvist. hes only 23 and can be the QB on PP2. would be a major upgrade over Perbix and gives the defense a little bit more offense

 

[DFC]

His fitness is what will keep him around, he can absolutely put up points in the right situation. That's not his problem though, it's that outside of raw production his game is very hollow - there's not much to it which I assume is the biggest reason JBB doesn't see value in him. Situated perfectly he can "look" good production wise but he isn't elevating anyone, he isn't driving play or holding possession, these are things everybody knows about his game but some choose to ignore, I doubt that goes above a guy who watches every single game like JBB does.

Nightmare situation for a numbers guy like JBB, tons of emotion tied to a player who pretty fails all the analytics. Love Stamkos as a person, I'll pass on the player at this point in his career though. Like you said I could see him regress to a ~60 point player as early as next season.

This signing makes less sense for Nashville the more you think about it, they already have all star LW with a right handed shot, Forsberg (I'm still choked we passed on this guy from 2012 btw) is a significantly better player than Stamkos right now and they play the same spot on the PP. ROR is a much better center and they just signed JAM who's a RW. They paid Stamkos 8M to play with Tommy Novak on the 2nd line? lol?

Good point on the PP spot.

Yeah I think I agree with everything here. We have been so much more pro-active with the rest of our stars, going back several contracts. There was one time when we waited on Point, but it came out after that he was injured and wouldn't be ready for camp. We made Kucherov wait once, but that was before he became a top5, at worst, player in the league. Since these guys have become stars, we have signed them, and Hedman, as early as possible.

That was never true for Stamkos. We have never prioritized him the same way, and I wonder if it's because, like you say, he's pretty much a raw/surface numbers guy. But the underlying things that help win games (Point, for instance, being one of the best players in the league, if not the very best, at zone entries), have never really been there for Stamkos. At least not since the broken leg. I can't help but think there has, for a long time, been something about his game that management is willing to part ways with pretty easily.

If we can keep a top 3 or 5 PP in the league, the more I think about it, the more I think you're right that we wind up significantly better. Because it seems like we are gonna add 20+ goals at 5v5. If we can do that without taking a big step back on the PP, yeah, we are a better team. Feels like our D will be better too.

And... still gotta think JBB has one more signing up his sleeve. Can't see us going into October with cap space to spare.

 

[Flat Ronnie]

Top 6 forward and upgrade at RHD seems to be the forum’s focus.

But, how’s the board feel about JJ at backup goalie?

Not at the top of the list. The back end should be better in general so that should help him too.

And... still gotta think JBB has one more signing up his sleeve. Can't see us going into October with cap space to spare.

Why not? There's nothing decent to bring in unless he creates more space (which he probably won't because it creates more holes). And he'll probably just keep it for the deadline.

 

[DFC]

Not at the top of the list. The back end should be better in general so that should help him too.


Why not? There's nothing decent to bring in unless he creates more space (which he probably won't because it creates more holes). And he'll probably just keep it for the deadline.

We never do it. If I'm not mistaken, we are in a position for cap to accrue. So it's hard to believe we are going to leave something in our pocket rather than try to improve. The team is better, but still has glaring weaknesses.

 

[Flat Ronnie]

We never do it. If I'm not mistaken, we are in a position for cap to accrue. So it's hard to believe we are going to leave something in our pocket rather than try to improve. The team is better, but still has glaring weaknesses.

The defense is PROBABLY better. The offense is marginally better than what it was at the end of the year.

 

[OffBy1]

Our forward group is complete trash still we legit need a top 6 RW added .

We have legit 4 forwards who are good GUENTZEL, hagel , Kucherov, and point

Cirell and Paul are 3rd liners basically

Other then that this forward group isn’t winning a cup

My hopes and prayers are Geekie is ready to make the team and play a position in the top six. That'd give us five.

 

[Outl4w]

I think JBB is done and thinks he majorly upgraded the roster with Atkinson, Guentzal, Moser,
Girgensons, McDonough, and Geekie replacing Stamkos,Sergachev,Motte,Dulcair,Jeannot,DeHaan and Watson. We got smaller, less total skill that can play now, relying on Atkinson to rebound to 20 goal form to replace duclair, and hope Geekie is ready to take a middle 6 forward spot.
Is Atkinson a playoff performer?
I wonder if bringing in Rosolivic is still an option.

 

[Sky04]

If we can keep a top 3 or 5 PP in the league, the more I think about it, the more I think you're right that we wind up significantly better. Because it seems like we are gonna add 20+ goals at 5v5. If we can do that without taking a big step back on the PP, yeah, we are a better team. Feels like our D will be better too.

And... still gotta think JBB has one more signing up his sleeve. Can't see us going into October with cap space to spare.

Don't know how anyone can say our defense hasn't gotten significantly better. We've essentially split Sergachev into Raddysh and Moser, Raddysh scored at roughly the same pace as Sergchev as ES last year, if we can get 30-40 points out of him that's a great value replacement for Serg at 1/12th the cost. Moser logged heavy minutes last year and did ok, you have to think he's going to shine in this situation behind Hedman and McDonagh, best part there isn't any pressure for him to do anything offensively, if he just plays a hard defensive game we're way better off. Call me optimistic I don't think Perbix is done after an off-year at 25 either, if he regains any form our defense is looking great.

We're not going to see a 20+ point increase in the standings or anything but at the very least I don't think we're not going to be the 2nd best team on the ice chasing games like most of last year.

 

[Zwui21]

I also think Stamkos will age better than we assume. I mean, his numbers were inflated here for sure, but I think a 36 and 37 year old Stamkos will be a good hockey player. Just not close to an 8m player.

I don't see how he can age well tbh, when this year already he was unreliable, soft on the puck and most nights a passenger at even strenght. Not to mention all the puck possessions we gave up on the PP because of his mistakes.

Nashville will regret his contract very soon IMO

 

[gn2007]

Don't know how anyone can say our defense hasn't gotten significantly better. We've essentially split Sergachev into Raddysh and Moser, Raddysh scored at roughly the same pace as Sergchev as ES last year, if we can get 30-40 points out of him that's a great value replacement for Serg at 1/12th the cost. Moser logged heavy minutes last year and did ok, you have to think he's going to shine in this situation behind Hedman and McDonagh, best part there isn't any pressure for him to do anything offensively, if he just plays a hard defensive game we're way better off. Call me optimistic I don't think Perbix is done after an off-year at 25 either, if he regains any form our defense is looking great.

We're not going to see a 20+ point increase in the standings or anything but at the very least I don't think we're not going to be the 2nd best team on the ice chasing games like most of last year.

A healthy rested vasy may steal some games lol

 

[RMF5630]

.... he would have to play to 42 to collect that salary, you do understand that right? Even if it's front loaded it, no one expects him to play the full 8 years - it's just Tampa's way to lower the AVV, they'd front load the contract so he gets most of it but he'd still leave money on the table, That 24M is actually less because of the salary he'd lose retiring so probably around 21-22.

It's a lowball contract, there's no way around it.

Any sane person takes 32M over 4 years than 24 over 8 (if that), I absolutely believe Stamkos was willing to go lower for the Lightning but not laughably low and that's someone who thinks we're better off with him gone.

No he doesn't have to play until 42, make it guaranteed. Done all the time. Bobby Bonilla is still making more than most of the Mets...

 

[RMF5630]

One of the dumbest things I've read. Those guys aren't faking injuries genius, sure they're taking advantage of the situation by getting paid but they are absolutely on career ending injuries, no dolt actually believes you can magically go on LTIR to collect a paycheck (well I guess some of you do believe it)

They also aren't getting their retirement ceremonies or anything until after their contract expires which just looks stupid, Price won't be officially honored or retired until almost 6 years after his last game. I guarantee you Stamkos is a person who would want to go out on his own terms.

All NHL contracts are guaranteed, it is in the Collective Bargaining. They can buy him out. But if he signed for 24M, he was getting 24M. The 8M meant more than uprooting his family and staying with the team that drafted him, period. It is not wrong or bad, but don't make it out to be something it isn't. He didn't get screwed, he had a good offer.

 

[DFC]

Don't know how anyone can say our defense hasn't gotten significantly better. We've essentially split Sergachev into Raddysh and Moser, Raddysh scored at roughly the same pace as Sergchev as ES last year, if we can get 30-40 points out of him that's a great value replacement for Serg at 1/12th the cost. Moser logged heavy minutes last year and did ok, you have to think he's going to shine in this situation behind Hedman and McDonagh, best part there isn't any pressure for him to do anything offensively, if he just plays a hard defensive game we're way better off. Call me optimistic I don't think Perbix is done after an off-year at 25 either, if he regains any form our defense is looking great.

We're not going to see a 20+ point increase in the standings or anything but at the very least I don't think we're not going to be the 2nd best team on the ice chasing games like most of last year.

Agreed, and to add, it sounds like Moser has a lot more value than anyone not watching is giving him credit for. Everyone who watched him is calling him top4. I don't think we are going to miss Sergachev's offense simply because he wasn't even in that role. So we are talking more about what he was capable of than what he actually did.

I agree hardcore on Perbix. I think this board is being way too reactionary on a guy who went through a fairly textbook sophomore slump. We have seen him play with poise and be a net positive. All he needs to do is get back to that. Guys don't physically decline at 25, but they do lose the plot mentally. Let's see what happens when he gets some more games. RHDs clearly don't grow on trees, and I don't like the idea of shipping one out because he didn't top a surprisingly good rookie year. Not saying I'd be completely opposed to a trade, but it would have to make more sense than "he sucks, get rid of him." If we get what he was as a rookie, it suddenly our D looks pretty balanced. To me, that's a gamble, but not a terrible one, and, given his minor role, not a terribly risky one even if it goes bad. Low risk, high reward.

 

[DFC]

The defense is PROBABLY better. The offense is marginally better than what it was at the end of the year.

I mean, yeah, at the end of the year because you're adding in Duclair. Right now we are better than at the first of last year. The PP has been fine without Stamkos in the past, and there's not much reason to believe we won't be 20ish goals better 5v5. Then the TDL comes along and we will have actual assets to move to make improvements. At that point we can compare the team to last year's post TDL team.

 

[DFC]

I don't see how he can age well tbh, when this year already he was unreliable, soft on the puck and most nights a passenger at even strenght. Not to mention all the puck possessions we gave up on the PP because of his mistakes.

Nashville will regret his contract very soon IMO

I think they will put him in a position to succeed. I'm not saying the contract will be good. I just think he will stay in shape enough to be what he is right now for a few years. I think he will be roughly a 60 point player and gradually decline from there. 45 to 55 points. Probably just a PP specialist, even if they use him more as a net front presence than a one timer.

 

[Sky04]

I mean, yeah, at the end of the year because you're adding in Duclair. Right now we are better than at the first of last year. The PP has been fine without Stamkos in the past, and there's not much reason to believe we won't be 20ish goals better 5v5. Then the TDL comes along and we will have actual assets to move to make improvements. At that point we can compare the team to last year's post TDL team.

Biggest reason why I wanted Duclair back was that the offense completely changed when he came in, but Guentzel actually provides the same elements with a better shot.

 

[DFC]

Biggest reason why I wanted Duclair back was that the offense completely changed when he came in, but Guentzel actually provides the same elements with a better shot.

He also showed some short term chemistry with Stamkos, which is rare. Signed a pretty reasonable contract too. Not sure if we could have made that offer or if management wanted to.

 

[JTBF81]

Either Sprong or Roslovic would still help the middle 6, and both are more realistic adds given the space that Tampa has left. I would do what it takes to move Sheary, but maybe JBB is banking on him, provided he stays healthy, bouncing back to the level he was at during the 3 prior seasons to last. If they can get the Sheary who averaged near 20 goals and 41 points a year, they'll be fine. It's a big gamble, though, and Sheary didn't look like that player at all last season. I know he dealt with multiple injuries that lingered, so one can only hope that if he doesn't get traded or bought out, he'll be that kind of player again this year.

 

[Rschmitz]

I'm happy with the roster.

I feel like our bottom line is set with Girgensons-Glendening-Chaffee. They will be nasty to play against

We need 35-40g's out of the third line with some combination of Paul, Atkinson, Sheary, and Eyssimont. Paul probably has to be our 3C. Unfortunately we need one of these guys to swing above their weight class and play 2nd line RW

Our PP has a Stamkos sized hole that no one seems to know how to fill. No where to go but down from last year.

I fully expect our defense to return to being top 10 and giving up sub 240 GA

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Agreed, and to add, it sounds like Moser has a lot more value than anyone not watching is giving him credit for. Everyone who watched him is calling him top4. I don't think we are going to miss Sergachev's offense simply because he wasn't even in that role. So we are talking more about what he was capable of than what he actually did.

I agree hardcore on Perbix. I think this board is being way too reactionary on a guy who went through a fairly textbook sophomore slump. We have seen him play with poise and be a net positive. All he needs to do is get back to that. Guys don't physically decline at 25, but they do lose the plot mentally. Let's see what happens when he gets some more games. RHDs clearly don't grow on trees, and I don't like the idea of shipping one out because he didn't top a surprisingly good rookie year. Not saying I'd be completely opposed to a trade, but it would have to make more sense than "he sucks, get rid of him." If we get what he was as a rookie, it suddenly our D looks pretty balanced. To me, that's a gamble, but not a terrible one, and, given his minor role, not a terribly risky one even if it goes bad. Low risk, high reward.

My issue with Perbix is that his decision making regressed from year 1 to year 2, his lack of top end skating speed was quite apparent in year 2 (especially when he had to pivot back when the opponent started a rush) and quite frankly he was out of position way too much. Gotta get him with a better partner & hope he can be insulated.

 

[Todd1a]

I don't see how he can age well tbh, when this year already he was unreliable, soft on the puck and most nights a passenger at even strenght. Not to mention all the puck possessions we gave up on the PP because of his mistakes.

Nashville will regret his contract very soon IMO

I don’t know stamkos has aged better then i thought he would and he had a great shot! But torwards the end of his deal it could become bad