Speculation: 2023-2024 General Lightning Discussion - Part 5

[HoseEmDown]

Joseph was a solid pick for the 4th round. Howden is an ok late 1st, but he's just energy depth. He was big in the 2023 Cup for Vegas, but a role higher up in a lineup like he had in New York, he's not good enough for. Hajek is a bum, Katchouk is mostly a bum, and Raddysh isn't dynamic enough nor gritty enough to be a consistent middle 6/top 6 scorer. Nolan Foote is a AAAA tweener and was a reach on draft day.

How they were as draft picks is not equal to how Yzerman and BriseBois used them as assets post draft. And Yzerman/Al Murray deciding Cal Foote was worth taking in the middle of the 1st really hurt this team. Classic last name bias/nepotism. Imagine if we drafted Robert Thomas, Jason Robertson, even Josh Norris there. Hell, Timothy Liljegren, even though he's soft and somewhat underwhelming, is a better NHLer than Cal Foote ever was.

I didn't like the Cal Foote pick either, I would have drafted Shane Bowers or Kole Lind or Isaac Radcliffe or Marcus Davidsson or Alexis Heponiemi or Filip Westerlund instead. Just imagine how good we'd be then?

 

[Hockeyville USA]

I didn't like the Cal Foote pick either, I would have drafted Shane Bowers or Kole Lind or Isaac Radcliffe or Marcus Davidsson or Alexis Heponiemi or Filip Westerlund instead. Just imagine how good we'd be then?

I'm still convinced Heponiemi would have become a decent NHLer, at least for a couple years, if anyone but Florida had drafted him. They're notoriously bad at drafting & (especially) prospect development. They almost completely ruined Tippett, wasted Heponiemi, couldn't even turn Denisenko into a middle 6 forechecker, and many more before them. Rushed Knight to the league before he went into the Player Assistance Program.

That's why Zito had to really focus on pro scouting & market inefficiencies, help wasn't coming from the pool.

 

[These Are The Days]

Ah the Cal Foote pick. I disliked it from the moment we made it because it was obvious we just decided "We want this one player and him only." It reminded me of the Bucs selecting Joe Tryon-Shoyinka out of nowhere. Nolan Foote was a little more welcomed from me but he was yet another 1st round pick that made me wonder wtf we were doing.

We always used to reach too high and I wonder how much of it has to do with Pat Verbeek. The Ducks always do the same nonsensical galaxy brain bullshit year after year like the Yotes did under Chayka. I swear to God the Ducks could have the #1 pick in 2015 and would select Lawson Crouse over Connor McDavid just to prove a point.

 

[Outl4w]

Nashville ain't playing around.

 

[DFC]

I expect Sergachev to reach the next level in Utah. Just like Verhaeghe, J.T. Miller, Marchessault

Offensively he will. I would expect 50 points pretty consistently because he will be getting PP time. That wasn't going to happen here.

 

[NJBolt]

Agreed both are true.

NSH gave 4 x $8 million (Stammers true worth) $32 million up to age 39
Let's just pretend that 8 x $3 was the number, $24 million up to age 43

If we are being realistic, Stammer isn't going play past 39 and if he is, it would be at league minimum. So there was an $8 million dollar difference (mind you, spread out over a longer period of time which has it's own cost).

Some say Stammer would have accepted $6 million over 4 years. (I seriously doubt that personally. I suspect he would have accepted $7 million.)

But just assume for a minute they did offer 4x $6 million, it's still only 24 million. In JBB's mind, he offered 91 a pretty good deal and Stamkos left for an extra $8 million.

The math basically was stay in Tampa and make $24 million or leave and make $32 million.

Stamkos (and certainly his agent) said "I know my worth"....and he is right. Sadly, I don't think things will go smoothly for Stamkos in Nashville. He won't be able to live up to that contract in a year or two and then he becomes Vinny Lecavalier which won't be pleasant. He definitely makes way more money going to Nashville and frankly had he stayed for the $24 million, he probably would've ended up bitter thinking TB should have paid him more.

But to DBM's point, I think Stammer would've been much happier if he just accepted retirement, hung out, coached, cheered with his buddies for 5 of the last 8 years of his contract while making some nice change on the side.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Ah the Cal Foote pick. I disliked it from the moment we made it because it was obvious we just decided "We want this one player and him only." It reminded me of the Bucs selecting Joe Tryon-Shoyinka out of nowhere. Nolan Foote was a little more welcomed from me but he was yet another 1st round pick that made me wonder wtf we were doing.

We always used to reach too high and I wonder how much of it has to do with Pat Verbeek. The Ducks always do the same nonsensical galaxy brain bullshit year after year like the Yotes did under Chayka. I swear to God the Ducks could have the #1 pick in 2015 and would select Lawson Crouse over Connor McDavid just to prove a point.

In 2019, I was convinced it would be Kaliyev or Brink. Foote was a 2nd rounder on almost everyone's boards. Imagine they have Robert Thomas and Arthur Kaliyev instead of going with nepotism...

 

[DFC]

Agreed both are true.

NSH gave 4 x $8 million (Stammers true worth) $32 million up to age 39
Let's just pretend that 8 x $3 was the number, $24 million up to age 43

If we are being realistic, Stammer isn't going play past 39 and if he is, it would be at league minimum. So there was an $8 million dollar difference (mind you, spread out over a longer period of time which has it's own cost).

Some say Stammer would have accepted $6 million over 4 years. (I seriously doubt that personally. I suspect he would have accepted $7 million.)

But just assume for a minute they did offer 4x $6 million, it's still only 24 million. In JBB's mind, he offered 91 a pretty good deal and Stamkos left for an extra $8 million.

The math basically was stay in Tampa and make $24 million or leave and make $32 million.

Stamkos (and certainly his agent) said "I know my worth"....and he is right. Sadly, I don't think things will go smoothly for Stamkos in Nashville. He won't be able to live up to that contract in a year or two and then he becomes Vinny Lecavalier which won't be pleasant. He definitely makes way more money going to Nashville and frankly had he stayed for the $24 million, he probably would've ended up bitter thinking TB should have paid him more.

But to DBM's point, I think Stammer would've been much happier if he just accepted retirement, hung out, coached, cheered with his buddies for 5 of the last 8 years of his contract while making some nice change on the side.

I dont see anyone on the Nashville roster who can get the most out of him. Like many of our players, the league's perception is just way, way off. He's obviously not going to drive play.

We only ever saw Stamkos have genuine, long term chemistry with two players here, and I don't think it's a coincidence that those were the best two forwards in franchise history.

Ah the Cal Foote pick. I disliked it from the moment we made it because it was obvious we just decided "We want this one player and him only." It reminded me of the Bucs selecting Joe Tryon-Shoyinka out of nowhere. Nolan Foote was a little more welcomed from me but he was yet another 1st round pick that made me wonder wtf we were doing.

We always used to reach too high and I wonder how much of it has to do with Pat Verbeek. The Ducks always do the same nonsensical galaxy brain bullshit year after year like the Yotes did under Chayka. I swear to God the Ducks could have the #1 pick in 2015 and would select Lawson Crouse over Connor McDavid just to prove a point.

It's easy to say this until you realize, we drafted the closest thing to a dynasty since the early 2000 wings.

 

[TampaIceman]

Agreed both are true.

NSH gave 4 x $8 million (Stammers true worth) $32 million up to age 39
Let's just pretend that 8 x $3 was the number, $24 million up to age 43

If we are being realistic, Stammer isn't going play past 39 and if he is, it would be at league minimum. So there was an $8 million dollar difference (mind you, spread out over a longer period of time which has it's own cost).

Some say Stammer would have accepted $6 million over 4 years. (I seriously doubt that personally. I suspect he would have accepted $7 million.)

But just assume for a minute they did offer 4x $6 million, it's still only 24 million. In JBB's mind, he offered 91 a pretty good deal and Stamkos left for an extra $8 million.

The math basically was stay in Tampa and make $24 million or leave and make $32 million.

Stamkos (and certainly his agent) said "I know my worth"....and he is right. Sadly, I don't think things will go smoothly for Stamkos in Nashville. He won't be able to live up to that contract in a year or two and then he becomes Vinny Lecavalier which won't be pleasant. He definitely makes way more money going to Nashville and frankly had he stayed for the $24 million, he probably would've ended up bitter thinking TB should have paid him more.

But to DBM's point, I think Stammer would've been much happier if he just accepted retirement, hung out, coached, cheered with his buddies for 5 of the last 8 years of his contract while making some nice change on the side.

Plus if it was anything like Guentzel‘s deal it would be $12m signing bonus and $1.5m salary for 8 years to frontload the money and dodge income tax from other states/Canada.

 

[Outl4w]

Agreed both are true.

NSH gave 4 x $8 million (Stammers true worth) $32 million up to age 39
Let's just pretend that 8 x $3 was the number, $24 million up to age 43

If we are being realistic, Stammer isn't going play past 39 and if he is, it would be at league minimum. So there was an $8 million dollar difference (mind you, spread out over a longer period of time which has it's own cost).

Some say Stammer would have accepted $6 million over 4 years. (I seriously doubt that personally. I suspect he would have accepted $7 million.)

But just assume for a minute they did offer 4x $6 million, it's still only 24 million. In JBB's mind, he offered 91 a pretty good deal and Stamkos left for an extra $8 million.

The math basically was stay in Tampa and make $24 million or leave and make $32 million.

Stamkos (and certainly his agent) said "I know my worth"....and he is right. Sadly, I don't think things will go smoothly for Stamkos in Nashville. He won't be able to live up to that contract in a year or two and then he becomes Vinny Lecavalier which won't be pleasant. He definitely makes way more money going to Nashville and frankly had he stayed for the $24 million, he probably would've ended up bitter thinking TB should have paid him more.

But to DBM's point, I think Stammer would've been much happier if he just accepted retirement, hung out, coached, cheered with his buddies for 5 of the last 8 years of his contract while making some nice change on the side.

Once Stamkos declines in two years will send a 2nd pack to reacquire him like McDonough.

 

[NJBolt]

One interesting note regarding Stamkos contract, it's 4 years of an $8 million base salary. If things go very poorly and Nashville were to buy him out next summer.....91 would get.....$24 million. ($8 mil for season 1 and $16 million paid out over 6 years).

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Sheary for laine(50%retained) would be the best and worst trade for everyone involved.
Atkinson and/or sheary on 4th line is going to be a disaster.

Atkinson can be an ok bottom 6er and play PK. Much better than current Sheary

 

[The Gongshow]

Atkinson can be an ok bottom 6er and play PK. Much better than current Sheary

I'd try out Atkinson on the 3rd or 4th line before giving Sheary any ice time. Preferably a rookie has a great dev camp and cracks the roster to make the 3rd line and Atkinson gets bumped to the 4th

 

[OffBy1]

Stamkos was also unhappy with not getting an extension to start the season, and in his mind, I'm sure he thinks he made the case for himself with his 40 goal reg season and 5 goal playoff series. No, he doesn't need the money, but he is still human and probably wants to be showed respect and appreciation for what he's done beyond simply handling things pure transactionally. I don't think it's simply about the money.

Regardless, I think JBB made the right decision to allocate that money to a younger player. But I think Guentzel, while an improvement, had too high a price and we'll regret that choice. If we don't get to the finals in the next two years after trading Serge and walking away from Stamkos for the sake of keeping our cup pipe dream alive, JBB needs to be shown the door.

A lot of his moves recently have been damage control on his previous moves - reacquiring McD, trading Serge one year after giving him an 8 year deal. Trading Jeannot after trading a draft to get him. It doesn't read like a master plan.

While it's good he recognizes his mistakes and tries to rectify them (he maybe did great on the Serge cleanup and respectably on the Jeannot cleanup), it'd be great if he made less and didn't bet the house in the process.

 

[Sky04]

Offensively he will. I would expect 50 points pretty consistently because he will be getting PP time. That wasn't going to happen here.

I expect him to get absolutely exposed defensively playing top players night in and out without any cushion in front of him. I wouldn't be surprised if his offense barely increases either, there's no Kucherov in Utah to pass to.

 

[ShagDaddy]

How long ago was it when Stamkos got moved from Center to Wing?

 

[Rschmitz]

He absolutely will be exposed but they'll keep giving him offensive minutes.

Sergachev will be a ppg player and a -60

How long ago was it when Stamkos got moved from Center to Wing?

Right around when Cirelli and Point started getting regular minutes. 2018?

 

[BoltSTH]

How long ago was it when Stamkos got moved from Center to Wing?

When Point took over 1C 3 or 4 years ago, and Cirelli the 2C.

 

[RMF5630]

Agreed both are true.

NSH gave 4 x $8 million (Stammers true worth) $32 million up to age 39
Let's just pretend that 8 x $3 was the number, $24 million up to age 43

If we are being realistic, Stammer isn't going play past 39 and if he is, it would be at league minimum. So there was an $8 million dollar difference (mind you, spread out over a longer period of time which has it's own cost).

Some say Stammer would have accepted $6 million over 4 years. (I seriously doubt that personally. I suspect he would have accepted $7 million.)

But just assume for a minute they did offer 4x $6 million, it's still only 24 million. In JBB's mind, he offered 91 a pretty good deal and Stamkos left for an extra $8 million.

The math basically was stay in Tampa and make $24 million or leave and make $32 million.

Stamkos (and certainly his agent) said "I know my worth"....and he is right. Sadly, I don't think things will go smoothly for Stamkos in Nashville. He won't be able to live up to that contract in a year or two and then he becomes Vinny Lecavalier which won't be pleasant. He definitely makes way more money going to Nashville and frankly had he stayed for the $24 million, he probably would've ended up bitter thinking TB should have paid him more.

But to DBM's point, I think Stammer would've been much happier if he just accepted retirement, hung out, coached, cheered with his buddies for 5 of the last 8 years of his contract while making some nice change on the side.

The offer was 3M for 8 years, that is what was reported. It would have taken Stamkos to 42. They gave lower money to sign Guentzel and the MAX term. The Stamkos camp floated that he wanted to stay for security so his family wouldn't have to move because they liked living in Tampa. JBB gave him secruity until 42.

He chose shorter term with more total money. That is on him. in 4 years he will be 38, will he get something until 42? Does the extra 8 make up for it? I don't see how anyone can say they low balled him, they were going to pay him until 42.

 

[Sky04]

The offer was 3M for 8 years, that is what was reported. It would have taken Stamkos to 42. They gave lower money to sign Guentzel and the MAX term. The Stamkos camp floated that he wanted to stay for security so his family wouldn't have to move because they liked living in Tampa. JBB gave him secruity until 42.

He chose shorter term with more total money. That is on him. in 4 years he will be 38, will he get something until 42? Does the extra 8 make up for it? I don't see how anyone can say they low balled him, they were going to pay him until 42.

.... he would have to play to 42 to collect that salary, you do understand that right? Even if it's front loaded it, no one expects him to play the full 8 years - it's just Tampa's way to lower the AVV, they'd front load the contract so he gets most of it but he'd still leave money on the table, That 24M is actually less because of the salary he'd lose retiring so probably around 21-22.

It's a lowball contract, there's no way around it.

Any sane person takes 32M over 4 years than 24 over 8 (if that), I absolutely believe Stamkos was willing to go lower for the Lightning but not laughably low and that's someone who thinks we're better off with him gone.

 

[Flat Ronnie]

.... he would have to play to 42 to collect that salary, you do understand that right? Even if it's front loaded it, no one expects him to play the full 8 years - it's just Tampa's way to lower the AVV, they'd front load the contract so he gets most of it but he'd still leave money on the table, That 24M is actually less because of the salary he'd lose retiring so probably around 21-22. It's a lowball contract, there's no way around it.

Any sane person takes 32M over 4 years than 24 over 8 (if that).

Sanity ^

 

[Rschmitz]

The Foote draft I wanted us to trade up for Vilardi as soon as he made it past pick #6, at the time I thought he'd be a perfect #2 center for us.


Of course it was widely speculated we would go after a D instead and that proved correct.

 

[NJBolt]

.... he would have to play to 42 to collect that salary, you do understand that right? Even if it's front loaded it, no one expects him to play the full 8 years - it's just Tampa's way to lower the AVV, they'd front load the contract so he gets most of it but he'd still leave money on the table, That 24M is actually less because of the salary he'd lose retiring so probably around 21-22.

It's a lowball contract, there's no way around it.

Any sane person takes 32M over 4 years than 24 over 8 (if that), I absolutely believe Stamkos was willing to go lower for the Lightning but not laughably low and that's someone who thinks we're better off with him gone.

No, you get all of the $24 million, you just don't "retire". Once you are done playing, you go on LTIR and collect the money while playing golf. Much like Carey Price and Nick Backstrom are currently doing. Same thing the Lightning did for Brent Seabrook for 3 seasons.

Now sure, JBB may get in trouble for cap circumvention but he likely will have moved on by then anyway so he wouldn't care.

 

[TampaIceman]

Yep at that age they can always find some medical excuse why you are no longer cleared to play.

 

[Sky04]

No, you get all of the $24 million, you just don't "retire". Once you are done playing, you go on LTIR and collect the money while playing golf. Much like Carey Price and Nick Backstrom are currently doing. Same thing the Lightning did for Brent Seabrook for 3 seasons.

Now sure, JBB may get in trouble for cap circumvention but he likely will have moved on by then anyway so he wouldn't care.

One of the dumbest things I've read. Those guys aren't faking injuries genius, sure they're taking advantage of the situation by getting paid but they are absolutely on career ending injuries, no dolt actually believes you can magically go on LTIR to collect a paycheck (well I guess some of you do believe it)

They also aren't getting their retirement ceremonies or anything until after their contract expires which just looks stupid, Price won't be officially honored or retired until almost 6 years after his last game. I guarantee you Stamkos is a person who would want to go out on his own terms.