I'm going to say you should probably ask this question to @Guttersniped -- who is our resident Deity Of All Things Researched.
Prospect Info: 2022 Post-Deadline Devils-Centric Mock Draft 2.0 (thru NJ 2nd round)
- Thread starter StevenToddIves
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he's a right handed shot. Have to imagine someone grabs him late in the first round.
@Guttersniped is also our greatest wordsmith when it comes to profanity that gets past the censors. Truly brilliant work. It's like listening to old school Howard Stern before the satellite radio when he could only get away with so much and that made it more fun. I'd like the filters to be turned off for just one day so I could post something awful and get a response like Larry David gets from the Jeff Garland wife character in Curb Your Enthusiasm.
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It’s impossible to say exactly, as it hasn’t been done in the cap era. I gave a swing at it and I was probably overly generous to us. (And it still felt like a crappy return at the same time. That’s pick trades for ya!)
The problem is even Arizona, with their mountain of picks, won’t give up a bunch of early picks.
I made the 3rd rounder their 2023 pick, just to jazz that one up, lol. (And they have three and I gave them one of our 2022 4ths because they had none.)
Pick trades are shaped by what’s available obviously (people can only trade what they got) and it’s tough to see many potential trading partners.
I would be curious what GMs or executives would say the pick would go for. (This one, not a generic 1OA.) Are people that hyped for Wright? Is he for sure playing in the NHL next season?
Isn't there a semi-accepted pick value trade chart floating around somewhere? Presumably that would give a relative value.
- Dec 20, 2018
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Why yes there is! (It’s from an Athletic article.) But the 1st pick is just a guess basically. The actual value would vary quite a bit based on who the top player is.
(I don’t know if it’s accepted, Dom made it up, based on others. I can dig up the article.)
And here’s the article, he has links and references to studies on draft pick values. There are other charts kicking around on the internet. I like this because typically people have graphs which make it harder to pinpoint a value for a pick. (In terms of just making it out.)
By the numbers: Revisiting the true value of a draft pick
The swap would be most plausible if the Devils are picking 1 and Montreal is picking 2. Montreal needs a center and needs to make a splash. So maybe they give us Calgary's first.
Wright is the most NHL ready of any 2022 class forward, because he's just so tight defensively and already possesses "man strength". He's also a potential marquee player and 1C, two things the Coyotes have lacked since probably Jeremy Roenick. The team is still recovering from the twin PR nightmares of John Chayka and Mitch Miller, and trading up to #1 would give them some tremendous PR.
Though Shane Wright is probably not a top 3 pick in 2023 (what a draft class!), he's pretty locked in as #1 in 2022. He's a potential 40+ goal, two-way 1C at the NHL level. He really has no discernible weakness which would prevent him from being a terrific professional. As we all know, 1Cs are very tough to come by.
As I've stated, there are other teams who I feel would make a big push for Wright. Columbus has lacked a 1C pretty much forever. Ottawa is stocked with prospect wingers and D, but are actually pretty thin up the middle and Wright is a local boy -- who knows what they would give to get him, and I'm sure you'd agree that's not exactly the most prudent front office. Detroit reportedly tried to acquire Barzal at the deadline, as Yzerman apparently covets a 1A/1B center duo with Dylan Larkin to build around. Buffalo is not sure if Cozens and Krebs are centers or wingers. There are several permutations and possibilities.
Here's an updated mini-mock for 3/26:
1 MTL C Wright
2 ARI C Cooley
3 SEA LW Slafkovsky
4 NJ RD Jiricek
5 OTT C Geekie
6 PHI RD Nemec
7 BUF C Savoie
8 CLB RW Kemell
9 DET LW Gauthier
10 ANH RW Nazar
11 SJ RW Lambert
12 NYI RD Chesley
13 CLB C McGroarty
14 VAN C Kasper
15 WPG RW Lekkerimaki
1 MTL C Wright
2 ARI C Cooley
3 SEA LW Slafkovsky
4 NJ RD Jiricek
5 OTT C Geekie
6 PHI RD Nemec
7 BUF C Savoie
8 CLB RW Kemell
9 DET LW Gauthier
10 ANH RW Nazar
11 SJ RW Lambert
12 NYI RD Chesley
13 CLB C McGroarty
14 VAN C Kasper
15 WPG RW Lekkerimaki
Here's a mock draft posted yesterday in The Sporting News. I mean, there's no way in the universe the Devils pass up on Jiricek for Kemell, but it was an overall nice effort and write-up.
www.sportingnews.com
NHL Mock Draft 2022: Canadiens win the Shane Wright sweepstakes; Russian prospects drop | Sporting News Canada
The NHL Draft is just a few months away. Here is The Sporting News' latest prediction of which prospects will go where in the first round.
www.sportingnews.com
- Dec 20, 2018
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Here's a mock draft posted yesterday in The Sporting News. I mean, there's no way in the universe the Devils pass up on Jiricek for Kemell, but it was an overall nice effort and write-up.
NHL Mock Draft 2022: Canadiens win the Shane Wright sweepstakes; Russian prospects drop | Sporting News Canada
The NHL Draft is just a few months away. Here is The Sporting News' latest prediction of which prospects will go where in the first round.
Don’t I also don’t see Geekie making it to 12.
Russian players will drop more but Columbus being the on taking Yurov with one their two pick fits their vibe, it would be their lower one if it happened though. (Mintyukov being in the CHL will shield him.)
Yeah I considered Mintyukov to Winnipeg at #15. I also agree that 6'4 centers with Geekie's skill don't last to #12 overall, especially in a draft where so many of the top teams need a top 6 center and badly.
Of course, there's the Devils pick which stands out the most to us. I love Kemell, I really do, but I feel he's very similar -- in fact even comparable -- to Alex Holtz. As such, I don't see him being the Devils pick, especially with the huge hole at RD AND David Jiricek available AND Tom Fitzgerald showing a particular affection for defensemen of Jiricek's particular skill set.
Buck Dancer
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I just have this feeling that we're in the drivers seat if we're picking in the top #4. If we end up with the 5th or 6th overall pick, that's when it becomes a little iffy for me.
I have Wright, Slafkovsky, Jiricek and Nemec in a tier of their own at the top of the board. We would need 2 teams to be high on a player or two, which might happen with Cooley/Geekie/Kemell but to me, those guys are in a lower tier than the 4 guys I mentioned.
I think the top #3 is set with Montreal, Arizona and Seattle. That leaves a battle between Ottawa, Philly and us for that 4th spot. We have the easiest schedule until the end of the season but we are playing a bunch of "4 point games", so yeah, it's pretty hard to tell who will finish where. There's also the lottery that will probably throw a monkey wrench in someone's plans as well lol.
I have Wright, Slafkovsky, Jiricek and Nemec in a tier of their own at the top of the board. We would need 2 teams to be high on a player or two, which might happen with Cooley/Geekie/Kemell but to me, those guys are in a lower tier than the 4 guys I mentioned.
I think the top #3 is set with Montreal, Arizona and Seattle. That leaves a battle between Ottawa, Philly and us for that 4th spot. We have the easiest schedule until the end of the season but we are playing a bunch of "4 point games", so yeah, it's pretty hard to tell who will finish where. There's also the lottery that will probably throw a monkey wrench in someone's plans as well lol.
I feel at #5 you still have a very good chance for Jiricek or Nemec, and at #6 you still have a, shall we say, "viable" chance. At #7, you're in full-on prayer mode at best.
I've said this before, but if the Devils are picking and Slafkovsky, Jiricek and Nemec are all off the board, I take Gauthier and run with it. It would also be fine in my book to trade down a few slots and take Chesley, though if you take him at #7 or #8 you might not be maximizing the value of the pick. Gauthier won't last past #12 and could go top 7, he's just too rare in his combination of goal-scoring and maximum physicality.
Buck Dancer
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I just don't know how does things work. Do we trade down, crossing our fingers that no one will pick Gauthier? Do we call other teams to test the waters on who they're high on, with a gentleman's agreement of not picking Gauthier? Do we have to give something up to the teams behind us, just to make sure they keep their word?
There's a lot of unknows when trading down several spots, with the hope of still landing your target.
You generally do not know for sure. You try to figure out which prospects teams are likely to pick based on their needs and organizational tendencies (both things that @StevenToddIves has an excellent understanding of)
The one exception is the the team you're trading with. I believe it's pretty typical for the GM to share which player they're trading up for, but that information shouldn't be shared with another team to leverage a trade. That would be a breach of trust.
I agree with @Blackjack and would add that Gauthier is a very likely top 10 pick and near-certain top 12 pick. You can count on your fingers how many NHLers are effective doing what he potentially brings to the table. His upside is a 30+ goal LW who is one of the most physical forwards in the league. If the Devils were picking at #6 and Slafkovsky/Jiricek/Nemec were gone, I'd take Gauthier right there and walk away smiling.
Buck Dancer
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I'm leaning the same way as you because I've beaten the "trade for Tkatchuk" drum for months now and if we can draft a kid that has most of the same qualities as they do, I'm not going to risk adding an extra 2nd round pick just to see someone pick the guy I want and end up with someone who's 3 spots down on our board.
I like maximizing assets but the risk is too big sometimes for what you'll get out of it.
Tkachuk is a pipe dream, because if Calgary is smart at all -- and management has done just fine there -- they're going to find a way to keep both him and Gaudreau.
I think the other thing is that Fitz has shown that he's not willing to take risks like that. I remember a video where they were considering trading down and still get Mukhamadulin, and he decided not to risk it. If he really likes a player, I think he'll just pick him.
Taking Muk 20th overall was a big enough risk in and of itself
I agree, and I feel that's one of the few areas of improvement I'd like to see in Fitzgerald as he gains experience as an NHL GM.
Draft day goes quickly, and it's a high-pressure event. So, you need to have contingency plans in place before the day begins. If you want Mukhamadullin at #20, fine (and history shows it wasn't a bad pick, as in a re-draft he likely goes in the 25-32 range). But you need to trade down if the overwhelming chance is the player will still be available and you can gain more assets.
On draft day 2020, Washington gave up the #80 pick to move from #24 to #22, so they were obviously looking to move up for Hendrix Lapierre (who, by the way, played with Dawson Mercer in the QMJHL). The Devils could have made the same deal -- what were the odds Mukhamadullin would be gone at #24? .01%? And even if he was taken, the Devils could have taken a RD like Barron or (my personal fave) Faber.
I've consistently backed Fitzgerald, as he's done excellently overall -- contracts, trades, leadership. However, his singular weakness has been on draft day. Though he's nailed his top 20 picks -- Holtz, Mercer, Luke Hughes -- he's been a bit shaky deeper in. Mukhamadullin should have been a trade-down, Chase Stillman should have been a trade-down. And the late round picks have been abominable -- there is no excuse to draft a Shlaine or Baumgartner or Hurtig, ever -- but especially not when you're working with the same scouting staff which consistently made 5th and 6th round selections like Bratt, Gritsyuk and Sharangovich.
Fitzgerald's been great, but the 2022 draft is likely to be the last one where the Devils have a top 10 pick and then 8 more picks, so Fitzgerald really needs to be at the top his game.
Buck Dancer
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The only reason I give a pass to Fitz for not trading down was that Washington were looking to move up, which was proabably a known fact around the floor and they haven't been scared to pick a Russian in the early to mid 20 range. Maybe Fitz thought they were going to try and move up for his guy (Shak) and decided to just take his guy and not risk losing him for an extra 3rd.
Maybe it didn't go down like that at all but I choose to give him the benefit of the doubt after knocking several picks out of the park in L. Hughes, Mercer and Holtz, who might be a stand-up triple more so than a homer lol.
