2022 Hlinka Gretzky Cup

[Dominance]

Like how is that not too many men. Just call the rule book.

 

[ORRFForever]

I don't think he made contact with the head - if there was, it was minimal.

 

[Dominance]

I don't think he made contact with the head - if there was, it was minimal.

It was called interference (what a joke).

 

[jj cale]

Nice solid goaltending to boot, I love it

 

[snipes]

It was called interference (what a joke).

That was a textbook hit, absolute beauty open hit ice

 

[Alberta tough]

As good as this team is they would be even better if they were more disciplined. That is on the coaches.

 

[alko]

Imagine adding Bedard to this juggernaut.

Not a big difference

 

[Eye of Ra]

So how do you guys think the semifinals will go.

canada vs finland, should be a clear win for canada. they are just too good this time

sweden vs czech. czechia is massive favorite, they won 4-2 over Sweden in a pretournament game

 

[Jukurit]

Not sure if anybody else has noticed this, but interesting thing about this Canada team I just noticed:
Out of 23 players on this roster, 9 are born in January 2005, 5 are born in February 2005. So, that's over half the roster being born on the first two months of the year. Seems pretty unusual.

 

[Hockeyfrilla]

So how do you guys think the semifinals will go.

canada vs finland, should be a clear win for canada. they are just too good this time

sweden vs czech. czechia is massive favorite, they won 4-2 over Sweden in a pretournament game

Swe-cze is 50/50

 

[Fatass]

Havnt at home .edu any of this tournament. No USA in the semifinals?

 

[kudla]

Swe-cze is 50/50

I'd say more like 65:35 for czechs. They have the momentum

 

[badfish]

Not sure if anybody else has noticed this, but interesting thing about this Canada team I just noticed:
Out of 23 players on this roster, 9 are born in January 2005, 5 are born in February 2005. So, that's over half the roster being born on the first two months of the year. Seems pretty unusual.

I think it's the book outliers by Malcolm Gladwell that notes players born earlier in the year have a better chance at making the NHL.

 

[BadgerBruce]

Not sure if anybody else has noticed this, but interesting thing about this Canada team I just noticed:
Out of 23 players on this roster, 9 are born in January 2005, 5 are born in February 2005. So, that's over half the roster being born on the first two months of the year. Seems pretty unusual.

Roger Barnsley, a Canadian scholar (and once a colleague of mine 30+ years ago at St. Thomas University in New Brunswick), pioneered research into the Relative Age Effect and ice hockey back in the late-1980s.

If I recall correctly, Roger and his wife were attending an international junior hockey game in western Canada (might have been a WJC game) and they were just casually reading the program. Mrs. Barnsley commented that nearly every player on the Czech team had a January or February birth month, and this simple observation led to Roger building an outstanding academic research career studying the Relative Age Effect.

The upshot? He eventually discovered that in any group of elite hockey players, 50 percent will have been born between January and March, 30 percent between April and June, 15 percent between July and September, and 5 percent between October and December.

One of the easier “quick hacks” to validate Barnsley’s research is this: in what months were the CHL exceptional status players born?

Here’s the answer:

Shane Wright: January 05
Sean Day: January 09
Connor McDavid: January 13
Joe Veleno: January 13
Aaron Ekblad: February 07
Michael Misa: February 16
Connor Bedard: July 17
John Tavares: September 20

It’s a fascinating field of study — there are even research projects that examine how the relative age effect plays out when the school calendar (say, September 01) is used instead of the linear calendar (January 01), and these studies reach the same conclusion: kids born within the first 3 months of the sport entry month achieve greater success.

In the US, a significant (and growing!) number of parents are very aware of the role played by the relative age effect, which has led to “Kindergarten Redshirting,” where parents intentionally hold their kids back from entering the formal school system for an extra year because the children are (statistically) more likely to thrive (academically and athletically) if they are older than their classroom peers.

Anyway, it’s a fascinating area of inquiry.

Edit:

Here’s the 2022 Hilinka-Gretzky birth month breakdown for rostered players (born in the first 3 months [January-March] and also the last 3 months [October-December].

Canada (23 players)
First 3 months: 17 (74%)
Last 3 months: 1 (4%)

Sweden (22 players)
First 3 months: 10 (45%)
Last 3 months: 2 (9%)

Slovakia (25 players)
First 3 months: 12 (48%)
Last 3 months: 4 (16%)

Switzerland (22 players)
First 3 months: 10 (45%)
Last 3 months: 1 (4%)

Czechia (23 players)
First 3 months: 12 (52%)
Last 3 months: 4 (17%)

Finland (22 players)
First 3 months: 12 (55%)
Last 3 months: 3 (14%)

USA (24 players)
First 3 months: 10 (42%)
Last 3 months: 1 (4%)

Germany (25 players)
First 3 months: 8 (32%)
Last 3 months: 4 (16%)

Cumulative Totals:
Total number of players: 186
Born first 3 months: 91 (49%)
Born last 3 months: 20 (11%)
Born in January: 34 (18%)
Born in December: 3 (<2% — all 3 goalies)

For those who believe that “birth year hockey” leads to the loss of talented athletes who, because they are chronologically younger, are weeded out before they have an opportunity to grow and catch up with their older birth year peers, the fact that there is not a single December-born skater in the tournament is powerful evidence in support of the view.

 

[GermanSpitfire]

Is Musty going to be this years Brad Lambert?

Problem with that comparison is Lambert went into the season as a projected top-5 pick and went #30.
I have really only seen Musty ranked in the twenties which I think is fair, even if he didn’t have a great tournament.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Not sure if anybody else has noticed this, but interesting thing about this Canada team I just noticed:
Out of 23 players on this roster, 9 are born in January 2005, 5 are born in February 2005. So, that's over half the roster being born on the first two months of the year. Seems pretty unusual.

It's been statistically proven that players born at the beginning of the year have a huge advantage. At the younger levels, they are more physically developed than those born later in the year, so they make the best teams, get the best coaching, etc. It takes a long time (pro level) for it to level out to a point where birth month becomes irrelevant.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Problem with that comparison is Lambert went into the season as a projected top-5 pick and went #30.
I have really only seen Musty ranked in the twenties which I think is fair, even if he didn’t have a great tournament.

I'm really just wondering if he's gonna be an advanced analytics darling with skill that is enticing but ultimately you wonder how productive it is really going to be.

 

[Eye of Ra]

I'd say more like 65:35 for czechs. They have the momentum

i would say its 90:10 for czechs

 

[FinPanda]

i would say its 90:10 for czechs

55-45 Sweden

 

[jj cale]

I'd go more like 65-35 Sweden.

 

[Kuracmugger]

Do the Swiss still get a place in the tournament, when the russian come back?

The russia replacement was germany but maybe the swiss will lose their place

 

[Jukurit]

i would say its 90:10 for czechs

I would say its 100:0 for Czechs.

 

[Jukurit]

For those who believe that “birth year hockey” leads to the loss of talented athletes who, because they are chronologically younger, are weeded out before they have an opportunity to grow and catch up with their older birth year peers, the fact that there is not a single December-born skater in the tournament is powerful evidence in support of the view.

Just a small correction: Finland's Topias Hynninen (forward) is born in December.

 

[BadgerBruce]

Just a small correction: Finland's Topias Hynninen (forward) is born in December.

You are correct — I sorted the team rosters by date of birth and somehow missed him. My bad.

Hynninen is clearly special — the only December-born skater in the entire tournament.

 

[haulinbass]

Roger Barnsley, a Canadian scholar (and once a colleague of mine 30+ years ago at St. Thomas University in New Brunswick), pioneered research into the Relative Age Effect and ice hockey back in the late-1980s.

If I recall correctly, Roger and his wife were attending an international junior hockey game in western Canada (might have been a WJC game) and they were just casually reading the program. Mrs. Barnsley commented that nearly every player on the Czech team had a January or February birth month, and this simple observation led to Roger building an outstanding academic research career studying the Relative Age Effect.

The upshot? He eventually discovered that in any group of elite hockey players, 50 percent will have been born between January and March, 30 percent between April and June, 15 percent between July and September, and 5 percent between October and December.

One of the easier “quick hacks” to validate Barnsley’s research is this: in what months were the CHL exceptional status players born?

Here’s the answer:

Shane Wright: January 05
Sean Day: January 09
Connor McDavid: January 13
Joe Veleno: January 13
Aaron Ekblad: February 07
Michael Misa: February 16
Connor Bedard: July 17
John Tavares: September 20

It’s a fascinating field of study — there are even research projects that examine how the relative age effect plays out when the school calendar (say, September 01) is used instead of the linear calendar (January 01), and these studies reach the same conclusion: kids born within the first 3 months of the sport entry month achieve greater success.

In the US, a significant (and growing!) number of parents are very aware of the role played by the relative age effect, which has led to “Kindergarten Redshirting,” where parents intentionally hold their kids back from entering the formal school system for an extra year because the children are (statistically) more likely to thrive (academically and athletically) if they are older than their classroom peers.

Anyway, it’s a fascinating area of inquiry.

Edit:

Here’s the 2022 Hilinka-Gretzky birth month breakdown for rostered players (born in the first 3 months [January-March] and also the last 3 months [October-December].

Canada (23 players)
First 3 months: 17 (74%)
Last 3 months: 1 (4%)

Sweden (22 players)
First 3 months: 10 (45%)
Last 3 months: 2 (9%)

Slovakia (25 players)
First 3 months: 12 (48%)
Last 3 months: 4 (16%)

Switzerland (22 players)
First 3 months: 10 (45%)
Last 3 months: 1 (4%)

Czechia (23 players)
First 3 months: 12 (52%)
Last 3 months: 4 (17%)

Finland (22 players)
First 3 months: 12 (55%)
Last 3 months: 3 (14%)

USA (24 players)
First 3 months: 10 (42%)
Last 3 months: 1 (4%)

Germany (25 players)
First 3 months: 8 (32%)
Last 3 months: 4 (16%)

Cumulative Totals:
Total number of players: 186
Born first 3 months: 91 (49%)
Born last 3 months: 20 (11%)
Born in January: 34 (18%)
Born in December: 3 (<2% — all 3 goalies)

For those who believe that “birth year hockey” leads to the loss of talented athletes who, because they are chronologically younger, are weeded out before they have an opportunity to grow and catch up with their older birth year peers, the fact that there is not a single December-born skater in the tournament is powerful evidence in support of the view.

Very interesting. It does make a lot of sense. I can see how a slight edge could result in a massive yield. Getting out of the gate early can put yourself in a situation of oppertunity to flourish and never look back. Obviously the kid has to have certain abilities in order to take advantage.