Speculation: 2022-23 Sharks Roster Discussion Part II

[Hodge]

That’s debatable.

It's certainly much harder to score in the SHL which forces players to develop a well rounded defensive game.

 

[CupfortheSharks]

I don’t think there is one development path that works best for every prospect. Some are better off staying in their home country. Some are better off playing juniors or NCAA. Some are better off getting to the AHL as soon as possible. It’s hard for us to know without the inside knowledge that the team has. All this tells me is that the Sharks and probably Bystedt think he is better off in the SHL.

 

[one2gamble]

I don’t think there is one development path that works best for every prospect. Some are better off staying in their home country. Some are better off playing juniors or NCAA. Some are better off getting to the AHL as soon as possible. It’s hard for us to know without the inside knowledge that the team has. All this tells me is that the Sharks and probably Bystedt think he is better off in the SHL.

They did the same with euk and I don't think it helped at all. If he thinks he's better off in the SHL, it's fine but only because the cuda staff is super suspect

 

[Hodge]

They did the same with euk and I don't think it helped at all. If he thinks he's better off in the SHL, it's fine but only because the cuda staff is super suspect

The mistake with Eklund was bringing him over for training camp in the first place. He should have spent his entire D+1 season in the SHL.

 

[Random Comment]

How we feeling about Mukhamadullin

 

[Cas]

How we feeling about Mukhamadullin

I'm hoping he shows good promise with the Barracuda this year, gets some games with the Sharks, and is a regular by the second half of next season, turning into a middle pair or even complementary top pair defenseman by 27-28.

My hopeful prospect schedule (as a full-season regular):

23-24 - Eklund
24-25 - Thrun, one of Bordeleau/Gushchin/Robins
25-26 - Smith, Mukhamadullin, one of Bystedt/Lund, one of Cardwell/Young, one of Laroque/Havelid/Furlong
26-27 - 2024 #1, one of Musty/Halttunen/Svoboda, one of Cagnoni/Fisher/Pohlkamp/Landen

That's probably a bit optimistic (and people not named can of course hit), but it's what I hope.

Incidentally, this is basically why I don't expect us to be competing for a playoff spot until 27-28.

 

[hohosaregood]

Bystedt scoring compilation that got posted recently. I like the way he picks up/receives the puck.

 

[Hodge]

I'm hoping he shows good promise with the Barracuda this year, gets some games with the Sharks, and is a regular by the second half of next season, turning into a middle pair or even complementary top pair defenseman by 27-28.

My hopeful prospect schedule (as a full-season regular):

23-24 - Eklund
24-25 - Thrun, one of Bordeleau/Gushchin/Robins
25-26 - Smith, Mukhamadullin, one of Bystedt/Lund, one of Cardwell/Young, one of Laroque/Havelid/Furlong
26-27 - 2024 #1, one of Musty/Halttunen/Svoboda, one of Cagnoni/Fisher/Pohlkamp/Landen

That's probably a bit optimistic (and people not named can of course hit), but it's what I hope.

Incidentally, this is basically why I don't expect us to be competing for a playoff spot until 27-28.

Weird list. Simultaneously too pessimistic on Smith and Mukh and way too optimistic about Cardwell, Young, Laroque, Havelid, Furlong, Svoboda, Cagnoni, Fisher, Pohlkamp and Landen, none of whom are at all likely to play in the NHL. If we're waiting on those guys in order to compete for the playoffs we're already screwed.

 

[Saskatoon]

You could be Douglas Murray on Jumbo’s wing and Murrays breakin 50 pts…Easy..

Remember Nils Ekman?

 

[Random Comment]

Weird list. Simultaneously too pessimistic on Smith and Mukh and way too optimistic about Cardwell, Young, Laroque, Havelid, Furlong, Svoboda, Cagnoni, Fisher, Pohlkamp and Landen, none of whom are at all likely to play in the NHL. If we're waiting on those guys in order to compete for the playoffs we're already screwed.

The 10 points in 12 games Mukh had with AHL made me optimistic, but I know it’s such a tiny sample size. Wondering if he has more offense than people are expecting.

 

[Saskatoon]

Vlasic has been cooked for several years now. I'm surprised we haven't found a way to force him onto LTIR.

Also "Pride"? HA. The dude started coasting before the ink from his latest contract extension was dry. He's been a liability ever since then.

I mean he is warm body on a tanking team now

 

[Barrie22]

I mean he is warm body on a tanking team now

Still one of the leaders on the team that is showing the young players how to be an nhl'er. He should of been gone years before even Karlsson came to the team.

 

[Sharkz4Fun]

That’s surprising. Am I missing something? He could have gotten 1C time in the AHL.

AHL development in the org. is currently a shitshow. Best for Grier (or the players themselves) to keep/stay away from the AHL as long as possible. That's why it's absolutely essential to have Eklund start in the NHL this year. Keep Smith/Bystedt away and try to limit Thrun/Mukh/Knyzhov's time there.

 

[Hodge]

The 10 points in 12 games Mukh had with AHL made me optimistic, but I know it’s such a tiny sample size. Wondering if he has more offense than people are expecting.

He was also extremely productive in the KHL for a defenseman his age. I think he will force his way onto the Sharks roster by the end of this season.

 

[Alaskanice]

Maybe, he just wanted to go home?

 

[Shark in Hockeytown]

Weird list. Simultaneously too pessimistic on Smith and Mukh and way too optimistic about Cardwell, Young, Laroque, Havelid, Furlong, Svoboda, Cagnoni, Fisher, Pohlkamp and Landen, none of whom are at all likely to play in the NHL. If we're waiting on those guys in order to compete for the playoffs we're already screwed.

While you're right that each of these players individually is unlikely to be an NHL player, it is likely the team will get an NHL player from each group. When you have four players each with a 25% chance of making it, the chance that none of them make it is roughly one-third (=.75^4, assuming the chance of each making it is independent). A two-thirds chance of getting a player from each group.

 

[Hodge]

While you're right that each of these players individually is unlikely to be an NHL player, it is likely the team will get an NHL player from each group. When you have four players each with a 25% chance of making it, the chance that none of them make it is roughly one-third (=.75^4, assuming the chance of each making it is independent). A two-thirds chance of getting a player from each group.

I don't think any of the players I listed has anywhere near a 25% chance of becoming a NHLer. Those are typical odds for a late 1st round pick, not someone like Alex Young or Ethan Cardwell. Each of those guys is probably somewhere between 5-10% which would mean we should expect 0-1 player out of that group.

 

[gaucholoco3]

He was also extremely productive in the KHL for a defenseman his age. I think he will force his way onto the Sharks roster by the end of this season.

He did have a 4pt game so that really can inflate his numbers in such a small sample size.

 

[Sysreq]

That’s debatable.

Ehh. SHL is more developed. AHL is kids and grinders. SHL has a higher NHLe in any case. So even from a pure math perspective at least SHL is significantly better. AHL benefits from more pure development time, but if he already has the fundamentals, he is gonna develop better hockey IQ from more complex playing situations in the more mature league.

 

[Hodge]

He did have a 4pt game so that really can inflate his numbers in such a small sample size.

That's why I'm more impressed by his KHL numbers and view them as a strong indicator he is close to NHL ready. He scored at a pace equivalent to 24 points in 82 NHL games which is very good for a 20 year old defenseman.

 

[Random Comment]

That's why I'm more impressed by his KHL numbers and view them as a strong indicator he is close to NHL ready. He scored at a pace equivalent to 24 points in 82 NHL games which is very good for a 20 year old defenseman.

Not much competition to the powerplay either. I think he can move the puck well and his shot is improving. He has all the opportunity with this roster.

 

[Shark in Hockeytown]

I don't think any of the players I listed has anywhere near a 25% chance of becoming a NHLer. Those are typical odds for a late 1st round pick, not someone like Alex Young or Ethan Cardwell. Each of those guys is probably somewhere between 5-10% which would mean we should expect 0-1 player out of that group.

Look at Cas's groups of players again. It is more likely than not that each of these groups produces an NHL player. The exception is "one of Cardwell/Young, one of Laroque/Havelid/Furlong", where I would say the group of the five of them together are more likely to produce one NHL player than not. The players Cas listed individually are very likely to be NHL players, the only question is how good they will be. Mukhamadullin is very likely to be an NHL player, but he could be anywhere from a first-pairing Dman to a 5/6 depending on how he develops his game from here on. And that difference is significant for the Sharks' long-term fortunes.

 

[Hodge]

Look at Cas's groups of players again. It is more likely than not that each of these groups produces an NHL player. The exception is "one of Cardwell/Young, one of Laroque/Havelid/Furlong", where I would say the group of the five of them together are more likely to produce one NHL player than not. The players Cas listed individually are very likely to be NHL players, the only question is how good they will be. Mukhamadullin is very likely to be an NHL player, but he could be anywhere from a first-pairing Dman to a 5/6 depending on how he develops his game from here on. And that difference is significant for the Sharks' long-term fortunes.

I think Smith, Eklund, Mukhamadullin, Bystedt, Thrun and Musty all have 80%+ chances of making the NHL in some capacity so no issues there.

However I also think it's very unrealistic to expect more than 1 NHLer total out of Bordeleau, Gushchin, Robins, Lund, Cardwell, Young, Halttunen, Laroque, Havelid, Furlong, Svoboda, Cagnoni, Fisher, Pohlkamp and Landen.

If it happens, great, but we shouldn't be counting on it. Most of these guys probably have less than a 5% chance of becoming NHL players assuming we're defining NHL player as somewhere around a 200+ game NHL career.

 

[karltonian]

You could be Douglas Murray on Jumbo’s wing and Murrays breakin 50 pts…Easy..

basically buttfuglyalien

 

[Shark in Hockeytown]

I think Smith, Eklund, Mukhamadullin, Bystedt, Thrun and Musty all have 80%+ chances of making the NHL in some capacity so no issues there.

However I also think it's very unrealistic to expect more than 1 NHLer total out of Bordeleau, Gushchin, Robins, Lund, Cardwell, Young, Halttunen, Laroque, Havelid, Furlong, Svoboda, Cagnoni, Fisher, Pohlkamp and Landen.

If it happens, great, but we shouldn't be counting on it. Most of these guys probably have less than a 5% chance of becoming NHL players assuming we're defining NHL player as somewhere around a 200+ game NHL career.

You are confusing the chance of each individual player making it with the cumulative probability that none of them make it. You are also grouping together the long shot prospects with those who were high second round picks that probably have a 25% each of making it--Bordeleau, Robins, Lund, Halttunen, Havelid (I would include Gushchin with this group because he has shown more than his draft slot), Remember a bottom-six forward or bottom pairing dman who plays 200 games is a success.

One interesting aspect of Grier's two draft classes is his willingness to draft deep prospects, guys who they won't have to sign for years. Look at the Sharks reserve list on CapFriendly, and the number of guys who don't have to be signed until 2027 is striking. Gives them more time to figure out the game compared to prospects from major junior.