Prospect Info: [2022 - 1st OA] Juraj Slafkovsky (LW) Part 2

[Habs Halifax]

-Owen Power barely played any NHL games last season
-Lafreniere Is floundering after being rushed into an NHL team that doesn't have space for him. Shouldn't have been in the NHL'
-Jack Hughes was a small player and the 1st 1OV to go straight to the NHL from THE USDP. Would have benefited from taking a year in the NCAA
- Dahlin is a defenseman and they are known to have longer development times. definitely rushed.

Slafkovksy if you didn't notice is European, Take a look at other European players who were drafted high recently and see how they did when they were imediately placed in the NHL, Its not pretty.

Lastly Lets not forget that 1st OV have had to deal with Covid disruption in recent years, They definitely haven't had as much time for development as other prospects before them.

There is a clear trend lately of not many sub 20 year olds coming into the NHL and showing promise right away. The game just keeps getting faster/stronger.

With Slaf, I always wonder what kind of offense we end up getting. Is he a 60-80 pts power forward once he reaches his prime? 80+? Who knows but I do think it's going to be a little rollercoaster of up/down movement in his development years and yeah, we as Habs fans like to talk hockey so we are going to be talking about it every step of the process.

 

[WeThreeKings]

There is a clear trend lately of not many sub 20 year olds coming into the NHL and showing promise right away. The game just keeps getting faster/stronger.

With Slaf, I always wonder what kind of offense we end up getting. Is he a 60-80 pts power forward once he reaches his prime? 80+? Who knows but I do think it's going to be a little rollercoaster of up/down movement in his development years and yeah, we has Habs fans like to talk hockey so we are going to be talking about it every step of the process.

It's fine to talk about the process.. the annoying thing is a clear agenda or just maligned expectations from the start. Those aren't worthwhile analysis to talk about, but they seem to dominate the threads because the same people can't let it go or can't actually introspect and edit themselves properly.

 

[themilosh]

Hes a first overall pick. Hes not a bust, but hes 100% disapponting.

A first overall pick shouldnt need "time".

Of the draftees on the class of `22 who has dominated so far?

 

[WeThreeKings]

Of the draftees on the class of `22 who has dominated so far?

Shane Wright of course! He beat Firkus in a 1 on 1 drill back in July.

 

[Mrb1p]

Of the draftees on the class of `22 who has dominated so far?

The comparison to Slafkovsky being disappointing is two-fold. Hes compared to historical 1OA, and say from 97, he ranks towards the very end. Also compared to the '22 class, as you say. From the '22 class, only a few have played games so far but going off the historical data we have on the draftees, Id say at least three.

Shane Wright of course! He beat Firkus in a 1 on 1 drill back in July.

Ya clearly thats the only data we have

 

[Scriptor]

MacKinnon won the calder and had 63 pts as a rookie - he also had 10 pts in his first playoff series that year (7 in his first 3 games so 70 pts in his first 84 total NHL games) - the next 3 years were 99% mental. That still constitutes as "needs time" to become a true superstar, but he was capable of 60+ pts and being the best player in a playoff series at 18 - I think part of the reason people forget he needed time was because they can remember him at 18 breaking the wild Dman's ankles and then sniping for his first playoff goal. He was already capable of being one of the most dynamic players in the game.

Slaf will not have that type of rookie season, nor does he possess that ability at this stage. But it does show that a player can have lots of ups and downs before finding their "true" self in the league.

Slafkovsky is not McKinnon, nor will he ever be.

The game of comparisons is an easy trap (I'm not saying you are making comparisons that way) we should avoid.

Slafkovsky will Slafkovsky, McKinnon, will McKinnon, Tkachuk will Tkachuk, Rataanen will Rataanen, Wright, will Wright, Nemec will Nemec, Cooley is, well, just too cool for the room...

I'm just hoping that Slafkovsky develops into a confident player that can dominate the play physically and make his line mates better.

From what I've seen so far, he has the tools and good enough hockey IQ (not Crosby elite, to stave off the wolves) to become that. he also has soft hands for such a big kid and good on ice vision to spot open line mates or, more precisely, where the line mates will be open shortly.

In a draft year like 2022 -- or any draft year -- a player like Slafkovsky who can grow to do that is a rarity. In a draft year like 2022, where no generational talent stood out (there might be a player that evolves into that, you never know) it was the time to choose a type of player that rarely comes around as the BPA.

Trying to trade for a player like Slafkovsky is impossible. You can only get that through the draft, IMO, and any team can use that if trying to assemble a winner.

The kid is only 18 and needs to continue developing his skill set. Montreal has a newly formed skills department that will cater to developing that skill set.

Slafkovsky has great shot, which he hasn't exploited in the two games he just played, but the mechanics aren't consistent. That can be fine-tuned.

Slafkovsky can do many things when he has the puck, but is sometimes lost when not comes to positioning when he doesn't have the puck. That can be taught and learnt.

Despite the positioning issues, Slafkovsky is far from lazy and will back check aggressively, using his speed to effectively neutralize the opponents' offense.

18 years old = still raw talent, but talent is definitely there.

Hughes said the Montreal Canadiens were looking to select the player that would be the best player in four or five years.

Picking a mammoth player with skills, drive and confidence is a good template to build off from when trying to develop that player. It wasn't a question of picking size for the sake of size alone.

Slafkovsky is not McCarron (thank God)!

Still took him 5 years to fulfill his true potential. That’s the point. I didn’t say he was bad, but he was half the player he is today.

Joe thornton is another good example of a big boy that took some time to become all that he could be.

 

[WeThreeKings]

The comparison to Slafkovsky being disappointing is two-fold. Hes compared to historical 1OA, and say from 97, he ranks towards the very end. Also compared to the '22 class, as you say. From the '22 class, only a few have played games so far but going off the historical data we have on the draftees, Id say at least three.


Ya clearly thats the only data we have

We have a lot of data that suggests Shane Wright is a wilting flower when games matter but Slafkovsky isn't. Which is ultimately a pretty big differentiator in a market like Montreal and for teams that ultimately want to win Stanley Cups.

Guy couldn't handle some mild criticism in draft interviews.. he'd be asking for a trade after these two rookie camp games.

 

[Scriptor]

We were that market under Bergevin and we can link that to ownership’s failed logic of always striving to achieve a competitive season even if it meant limited success and playoff failures.

Now, I get the sense that fans are loving the current roster building blueprint and are buying into the outside the box thinking brought about by the 3 amigos.

MacKinnon is a great example of some drafting luck (we never found one when selecting early) but also of patiently cultivating a prime asset. He was drafted in 2013, the Avs missed the playoffs several times since but some 7 years later, it paid off with a Cup.

Habs fans are seeing that result and what went behind it — and I believe, they’ve embraced a level of patience that we’ve never seen before simply because having done it the other way for 10 years, simply did not work.

I think you're right, but, as should be expected, it doesn't apply to ALL Hab fans.

The pressure on the kid is insane, 1st OV we got since Wickenhenser... Some people expect him to be the messiah, which is isnt, kid will be a great player, I have no doubt, but he is only 1 part of the puzzle that will fall in place in the upcoming years. There is no hurry when it comes to Slafkovsky, fans should let the kid acclimatize and develop at his own pace. The good thing is that he is well surrounded with the new management, great coach for kids in Marty St-Louis and some good veteran presence on the team, kid is also pretty strong mentally and will be able to deal with that pressure.

But god, some poeple should chill out, kid just turned 18 few months ago.

Hockey is a team game. No player is a team (an island).

 

[Scriptor]

You seem to be giving him a different treatment because he's a 1st OA. You should treat all prospects equally, it's unfair for other players who are showing more but are disregarded just because they were drafted later.

The problem with Slaf atm is that a good amount of young prospects looked better than him in many aspects of the game. And i'm not talking about skills but more like confidence and hockey IQ. While other players looked like they knew what they needed to do he looked sometimes confused af.

I'm not saying we need to push the panic button just yet but we need to be realistic with what we're seing on the ice and not let our emotions get the best of our judgement.

I have faith in this org and i'm sure they will try to protect him as much as possible. I think its in his best interest to start him in the OHL where he'll be able to dominate the game physically and therefore give himself alot of space and time to learn the game as a superstar.

A clear case of over-analysis with a minuscule sample size to boot. Lots of projection about the players's inner mindset when talking about confidence and confusion.

Get a grip, man, get a grip.

 

[Mrb1p]

We have a lot of data that suggests Shane Wright is a wilting flower when games matter but Slafkovsky isn't. Which is ultimately a pretty big differentiator in a market like Montreal and for teams that ultimately want to win Stanley Cups.

Guy couldn't handle some mild criticism in draft interviews.. he'd be asking for a trade after these two rookie camp games.

Nice, setting up the excuses for this year.

 

[Scriptor]

Do we get an extra year of control on other end if Slaf spends a part season or full season in Laval?

The ELC expires at the same rate regardless of the time spent in Montreal or Laval, but the road to full UFA status will be impacted by how much time Slafkovsky plays in the. NHL.

If Slafkovsky plays 39 games or less at the NHL level, he will be an UFA in 8 years. If he plays 40 or more games at the NHL level, he will be an UFA in 7 years.

Team control over the kid, if nothing else, would benefit from Slafkovsky having a long enough stint in Laval. Still, if it's not the best route for his development, don't let that motivate your decision.

 

[Adam Michaels]

The ELC expires at the same rate regardless of the time spent in Montreal or Laval, but the road to full UFA status will be impacted by how much time Slafkovsky plays in the. NHL.

If Slafkovsky plays 39 games or less at the NHL level, he will be an UFA in 8 years. If he plays 40 or more games at the NHL level, he will be an UFA in 7 years.

Team control over the kid, if nothing else, would benefit from Slafkovsky having a long enough stint in Laval. Still, if it's not the best route for his development, don't let that motivate your decision.

I also thought a year of his ELC would expire whether he played in Laval. However, when I mentioned that, some posters replied with a section of the CBA saying that if he is sent to Laval, his ELC can slide.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Nice, setting up the excuses for this year.

Nah, it's just the reality of the situation. You ignored the obvious red flags in your boy Shane Wright, even when faced with video evidence of those flags and despite the majority of the scouting industry moving off Wright during the year (beginning in December when Cooley took off and Wright was doing nothing in the OHL of note).

Despite Bob's list putting Slaf at 1 and other scouting publications echoing that statement.. it even showed itself on the draft floor where no team appeared poised or wanting to trade up to get Wright and culminated in two franchises taking someone else, including another franchise happily taking Cooley (a different center) ahead of him.

And now you've put yourself in a situation where instead of accepting some potential flaw in analysis or understanding there were some legitimate questions that could lead any scout/team in a different direction. You're going to do your MRB1P thing and double down ad nauseam. It was apparent when you touted a 1 on 1 drill vs. Firkus in the development camp as some vindication related to Wright's skills.

You can't reconcile some impossible expectations for a 1st overall when you had an entire draft year to understand we were not dealing with a McDavid/Eichel draft year. So you're going to hold that against Slafkovsky and you won't let that go. So it's not excuses or lowering expectations among rational people, it's just relative to this own notion and standard you have in your head. It's a bias in your actual analysis and ability to accurate assess the situation unfolding here. Until you recognize that, you're going to be unhappy and combative on this issue.

You also have a bias related to the player you wanted and since you're unhappy with the selection, you're going to continuously put Slafkovsky in a no-win situation. If Slaf had dominated these two rookie games, dangled through everyone and scored at will? Guaranteed you would have downplayed it "it's only rookie camp, none of these guys are close to NHLers and at his size it's easy". So even if he was incredibly successful here in a couple meaningless games, you would have given him 0 credit. Again, a flaw in your ability to assess things properly with a number of biases you've accumulated and applied over the 2022 draft class.

 

[Mrb1p]

Nah, it's just the reality of the situation. You ignored the obvious red flags in your boy Shane Wright, even when faced with video evidence of those flags and despite the majority of the scouting industry moving off Wright during the year (beginning in December when Cooley took off and Wright was doing nothing in the OHL of note).

Despite Bob's list putting Slaf at 1 and other scouting publications echoing that statement.. it even showed itself on the draft floor where no team appeared poised or wanting to trade up to get Wright and culminated in two franchises taking someone else, including another franchise happily taking Cooley (a different center) ahead of him.

And now you've put yourself in a situation where instead of accepting some potential flaw in analysis or understanding there were some legitimate questions that could lead any scout/team in a different direction. You're going to do your MRB1P thing and double down ad nauseam. It was apparent when you touted a 1 on 1 drill vs. Firkus in the development camp as some vindication related to Wright's skills.

You can't reconcile some impossible expectations for a 1st overall when you had an entire draft year to understand we were not dealing with a McDavid/Eichel draft year. So you're going to hold that against Slafkovsky and you won't let that go. So it's not excuses or lowering expectations among rational people, it's just relative to this own notion and standard you have in your head. It's a bias in your actual analysis and ability to accurate assess the situation unfolding here. Until you recognize that, you're going to be unhappy and combative on this issue.

You also have a bias related to the player you wanted and since you're unhappy with the selection, you're going to continuously put Slafkovsky in a no-win situation. If Slaf had dominated these two rookie games, dangled through everyone and scored at will? Guaranteed you would have downplayed it "it's only rookie camp, none of these guys are close to NHLers and at his size it's easy". So even if he was incredibly successful here in a couple meaningless games, you would have given him 0 credit. Again, a flaw in your ability to assess things properly with a number of biases you've accumulated and applied over the 2022 draft class.

I didnt ignore the red flags lmao, I was the first person to raise them. You can go back months before the draft and I called out Wrights lack or character and sense of entitlement. Im pretty sure you were one of the dudes telling me it was nothing.

With that said, talent trumps.

 

[waitin425]

I'm curious to see what he does with the bigger boys and the better players. I feel like main camp is where we will finally get a chance to see what he is made of.

 

[Redux91]

A clear case of over-analysis with a minuscule sample size to boot. Lots of projection about the players's inner mindset when talking about confidence and confusion.

Get a grip, man, get a grip.

Guys, seriously lol
You need to stop quoting that guy

 

[417]

-BREAKING NEWS IN MONTREAL-

A group of grown men yells at a cloud that hasn't even appeared yet! More on that story later this week.

Man...no better way to capture this thread lol

 

[417]

The comparison to Slafkovsky being disappointing is two-fold. Hes compared to historical 1OA, and say from 97, he ranks towards the very end. Also compared to the '22 class, as you say. From the '22 class, only a few have played games so far but going off the historical data we have on the draftees, Id say at least three.

He's doesn't need to be compared to historical 1OA...that's an exercise that fans and media do because they're bored.

Slafkovsky can only be compared to his peers from his draft season if we're talking about whether he was the right pick for the Montreal Canadiens.

If you want to participate in some weird exercise where you're comparing historical 1OA against each other, OK fine.

 

[Retired]

Hes a first overall pick. Hes not a bust, but hes 100% disapponting.

A first overall pick shouldnt need "time".

The org did repeat 50 times ahead of the draft they would pick the guy who would become the best at 22-23 not at 18-19 though.

 

[MasterD]

Slafkovsky is not McCarron (thank God)!

To be honest, we don't know what. So far he's only faster.

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

To be honest, we don't know what. So far he's only faster.

...so he can actually skate...a HUGE advantage, pardon the pun...

 

[Mrb1p]

He's doesn't need to be compared to historical 1OA...that's an exercise that fans and media do because they're bored.

Slafkovsky can only be compared to his peers from his draft season if we're talking about whether he was the right pick for the Montreal Canadiens.

If you want to participate in some weird exercise where you're comparing historical 1OA against each other, OK fine.

When someone types out "Hes disappointing as a first overall, so far." Thats probably the comparison theyre making... Tough to grasp.

With that said, even compared to his peers hes disappointing. There was very little difference between him and Mesar on the ice.

A first overall is prime money, it should bring you a prime return.

The org did repeat 50 times ahead of the draft they would pick the guy who would become the best at 22-23 not at 18-19 though.

Yeah I know. I agree with that way of thinking and hopefully it is Slaf. I dont think it will be him.

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

To be honest, we don't know what. So far he's only faster.

thats already a big difference

 

[SlafySZN]

When someone types out "Hes disappointing as a first overall, so far." Thats probably the comparison theyre making... Tough to grasp.

With that said, even compared to his peers hes disappointing. There was very little difference between him and Mesar on the ice.

A first overall is prime money, it should bring you a prime return.



Yeah I know. I agree with that way of thinking and hopefully it is Slaf. I dont think it will be him.

Let’s talk about that when they’ll actually play in the show…

 

[417]

When someone types out "Hes disappointing as a first overall, so far." Thats probably the comparison theyre making... Tough to grasp.

Even tougher to grasp when there's nothing to measure this statement against other than 2 games in some arena in America's armpit aka Buffalo.

With that said, even compared to his peers hes disappointing. There was very little difference between him and Mesar on the ice.

A first overall is prime money, it should bring you a prime return.

Again...if this is true at main camp, I think it would be a fair knock against Slafkovsky (though IMO, still premature).

But right now, it's just like that other poster said.

You're yelling at a cloud that hasn't appeared yet.

I think that's the issue you're not capturing here...it's not that I think you're wrong, I just think you've jumped the gun with little to no information.