Blue Jays GDT: 2021 v2 |Next: Wed, Apr 21| @ Bos |7pm ET/4pm PT | Thornton vs Richards

[Da Cool Rula]

I’ll be incredibly patient with the bats because there is clearly a lot of talent there who performed at a high level last season. They’ll be fine.

The starting pitching stunk last year and they did basically nothing to improve it. Everyone could see it was a huge problem so when it starts the season looking predictably wobbly it’s hard to just preach patience. The only way we have good starting pitching this year is if a bunch of guys who couldn’t get people out last year suddenly do this year. It could happen. But is it likely to happen? How many rotations 2-5 in MLB are worse on paper than what this team has?

One day we are both going to smile. I was there for last Leaf Stanley cup so I maybe I know patience too much.

 

[Canada4Gold]

As much as I like Romano, Thornton puts a base stealer ion and you go to the guy who takes so damn long to thrown the ball that it's basically going to put the runner on 3rd for free

 

[MS]

I'd rather give Ray the chance because if he improves his control he is a legit #2 behind Ryu. In Spring Training, Ray's control was excellent. Even when Ray has sucked, his k/9 is double digits. His off-speed stuff is great and his FB is fantastic. He's a lefty that can throw 96MPH and was touching 98mph in Spring Training.

I am not a fan of the rotation because like you said, projects and hope but how many teams have a solid 1-5 rotation? Very few in the league. Even the Yankees are counting on Kluber and Taillon who have thrown very little in the last few years. Kluber's stuff isn't close to what it used to be either. Signing a guy like Walker for 2 years and a player option, so likely three years in total, doesn't make sense to me. Walker is a #4 starter. Jays have a bunch of players that could do what Walker would do. Being locked in for three years with Walker isn't a smart decision.

To be clear - I have no problem with giving Ray a shot. But he should be a guy pencilled in at the back end of a rotation and if he’s better than that it’s found money. Right now he is the #2 starter on this team. That is not good.

If you lock in to a 32 y/o like Springer on a huge deal, you have to fully commit to winning in the first couple years when he’ll be providing value or else that deal is a million times stupider than a Walker deal. Instead they’re stuck in the middle with a contending set of bats and are just throwing a bunch of shit in the wall and seeing what sticks with their starting pitching.

 

[The Nemesis]

At some point the point of the game is to get people out. This weird thing has happened where a guy with elite spin rates to go with a WHIP of 1.8 and an ERA over 5 is somehow considered better than a guy who actually gets people out.

Ray has given up 43 HR and 130 walks in his last 225 innings over the past two years. He’s a huge project, even if his stuff is good in a vacuum.

Again - this rotation (no matter how it’s put together) has 1 guy who had an ERA under 5.50 last year. It’s a bunch of projects and hope.

It's a little disingenuous to cherry pick just 2020 stats when it was a crazy weird unprecedented year.

Robbie Ray:
career 4.26 ERA, 3.93 xFIP.
If you want to just isolate 2017-19 for a nice 3-year stretch he was 3.72 ERA, 3.81 xFIP

Ross Stripling:
Career 3.81 ERA, 3.66 xFIP.
2017-19: 3.36/3.39

Steven Matz:
Career 4.32/4.10,
17-19: 4.44/4.36

Roark:
Career 3.86/4.24,
17-19: 4.46/4.43



Roark is 34 and has trended downwards for several years. He's probably cooked and what he was last year and this year is likely who he is now.

Ray and Matz are 29, Stripling is 31. They've been inconsistent, but last year generally looks like a blip vs their usual performances prior to that season. Ray was actually only terrible with the D-Backs and evened out to about his 2019 levels once he joined Toronto. Each of them has shown mid-rotation or better capability at some point in their career, and most of their recent pre-2020 history suggests they can still do it (and ironically the one whose recent history doesn't carry that weight, Matz, is the one who had the best start to this season)

I liked what Walker did last year, but there are a lot of indicators that it was not sustainable.

 

[canucksfan]

To be clear - I have no problem with giving Ray a shot. But he should be a guy pencilled in at the back end of a rotation and if he’s better than that it’s found money. Right now he is the #2 starter on this team. That is not good.

If you lock in to a 32 y/o like Springer on a huge deal, you have to fully commit to winning in the first couple years when he’ll be providing value or else that deal is a million times stupider than a Walker deal. Instead they’re stuck in the middle with a contending set of bats and are just throwing a bunch of shit in the wall and seeing what sticks with their starting pitching.

If the Jays don't make the playoffs this year, it won't be because they didn't sign Walker.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

To be clear - I have no problem with giving Ray a shot. But he should be a guy pencilled in at the back end of a rotation and if he’s better than that it’s found money. Right now he is the #2 starter on this team. That is not good.

If you lock in to a 32 y/o like Springer on a huge deal, you have to fully commit to winning in the first couple years when he’ll be providing value or else that deal is a million times stupider than a Walker deal. Instead they’re stuck in the middle with a contending set of bats and are just throwing a bunch of shit in the wall and seeing what sticks with their starting pitching.

George Springer is 31 years old. Always weird when people try and age players to try and make their own argument feel better in their own head.

 

[The Nemesis]

Might need Romano to trim the beard a bit. He's starting to look like a crazy guy who lives in a shack in the middle of the woods.

 

[Marshy]

Might need Romano to trim the beard a bit. He's starting to look like a crazy guy who lives in a shack in the middle of the woods.

Who was that Jays pitcher who lived in his car? Daniel Norris I believe.


(I know it was only for a bit)

 

[MS]

George Springer is 31 years old. Always weird when people try and age players to try and make their own argument feel better in their own head.

He’s an ‘89 and turns 32 during this season, in a sport where 33-34 is ancient for hitters now.

 

[The Nemesis]

I should've also added to the above that in addition to those 3 (and Roark) you can add Pearson, Zeuch, Kay, Hatch, and Thornton to the potential starter pool.

That's 8 guys (and Roark) from which they need to find enough capable pitchers to fill 4 spots until the next wave of kids (Manoah, Woods Richardson) are ready.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Jansen is bunting here right?

Whoa, he's not. Color me shocked. Montoyo learned something

 

[TheBeastCoast]

He’s an ‘89 and turns 32 during this season, in a sport where 33-34 is ancient for hitters now.

He is 31 years old for like the entire season lol

 

[The Nemesis]

Who was that Jays pitcher who lived in his car? Daniel Norris I believe.


(I know it was only for a bit)

Yeah. Daniel Norris. He went to Detroit in the Price trade and has been mostly a disappointment. They moved him into the pen last year and he was apparently decent.

It's weird to think that of the return the Tigers took for Price, it was Matt Boyd that ended up being easily the best piece.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Oh well, same result as if Jansen had tried to bunt

 

[Marshy]

Jansen can't advance runners.

 

[The Nemesis]

f***ing hell, Buck/Pat. If it was that easy for hitters to beat the shift, defences wouldn't shift to begin with.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Yeah. Daniel Norris. He went to Detroit in the Price trade and has been mostly a disappointment. They moved him into the pen last year and he was apparently decent.

It's weird to think that of the return the Tigers took for Price, it was Matt Boyd that ended up being easily the best piece.

Hard to believe it's been almost 6 years now. Those guys that we gave up are veterans already.

 

[ryno23]

Oh well, same result as if Jansen had tried to bunt

Just can't understand where in youth baseball or minor leagues teams moved away from teaching guys to situational hit. All Jansen has to do is swing late and the ball goes to the right side of the field. Simple baseball.

This is what playoff winning teams do. Come playoffs runs are hard to come by so if you waste opportunities like this you end up losing.

Jansen does his job and Seimen would have drove him in

 

[Hoverhand]

Jansen is bunting here right?

Whoa, he's not. Color me shocked. Montoyo learned something

If Montoyo learned something, Kirk would be starting

 

[The Big Swede13]

If Montoyo puts the bunt on with Jansen thats a run

 

[Canada4Gold]

If Montoyo puts the bunt on with Jansen thats a run

The same Jansen who looks like he can't get within 6 inches of the pitch when he tries to bunt? That's a strikeout you mean.

Sac bunting in general is dumb, but if you're going to do it, then practice it to make sure they players can do it successfully. It's clear the last time Jansen tried to bunt before the woeful attempt the other day was last year when he was asked to bunt. He's terrible at it.

 

[Hoverhand]

The true sin of the off season wasn't not signing Odorizzi and Walker, because both of those pitchers were similar to our current crop as Nem outlined.

However, They should have gotten a true #2 playoff team pitcher. In an offseason where the national league FIP leader and the all time SO/9 leader went for a pretty reasonable package of prospects, I don't think that was an unreasonable ask.

 

[ryno23]

f***ing hell, Buck/Pat. If it was that easy for hitters to beat the shift, defences wouldn't shift to begin with.

It is easy to beat the shift but players don't do it as they are told how the numbers break down if they swing for extra base hits or homers.

The math doesn't work and teams won't go against the numbers as then you get second-guessed.

If you have the shift on for a lefty and they leave 3B open you just slap the ball half swing it down the lin you get a basehit and maybe a double if you hustle out of the box. You do this 4-6 times in a series then the scouting report pro scouts send back to their teams notes this and they move away from the shift.

You gotta be prepared to sacrifice power but it opens up the whole field again. Your average would jump many points with no shift.

Teams are ok with guys hitting .200 but with 25 homers vs hitting .300 with 15 homers.

 

[Marshy]

The same Jansen who looks like he can't get within 6 inches of the pitch when he tries to bunt? That's a strikeout you mean.

Sac bunting in general is dumb, but if you're going to do it, then practice it to make sure they players can do it successfully. It's clear the last time Jansen tried to bunt before the woeful attempt the other day was last year when he was asked to bunt. He's terrible at it.

Was going to post something similar.

If a player has been asked to bunt in the past, maybe they should practice it especially if they look woefully inept at it.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

I think people expecting the team to go from legitimately terrible...to a fringe playoff team last season and then have the expectation that literally every hole on the roster be filled and competing for a WS this year kind of ridiculous myself.