Prospect Info: 2021 NHL Draft: The Home Stretch, Draft July 23-24

[Frk It]

I threw out this comparison last year and was rebuked for it, but Kent Johnson makes me think of Kyle Turris.

Same junior league then took the NCAA route. Similar draft profiles and skillsets as flashy and skilled center/wingers, similar physical profiles.
Kyle Turris - Hockey's Future

Highlight of the Night: Scouting Report: Kyle Turris - NHL Draft Prospect

I don't think Kent Johnson is as good a skater as Turris was at the same stage of development but I think that's more an issue of strength than technique.

That being said, if we are gambling at #6 because the player we marked as the best at that spot (regardless of position) is gone, then I really hope our backup is not Johnson. I have real reservations about him becoming a top end scorer in the NHL.

Still a no for me on that comp. If they didn’t both play Junior A I highly doubt you would use it.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

That's why I think Johnson is only "a little better." People also seem to forget that Turris was really good as he broke into the NHL. I think we'd have to be pretty happy if we drafted Johnson and that's what he became

A guy that had 3 ok years offensively and has historically been trash in the playoffs? Yikes.

That's gonna be a no from me, dawg.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Still a no for me on that comp. If they didn’t both play Junior A I highly doubt you would use it.

Would you feel more comfortable if I compared him to a young Sam Gagner?

 

[Frk It]

Would you feel more comfortable if I compared him to a young Sam Gagner?

I don't know why we can't use guys from the last 5 years or so like Boldy or Zegras. I mean his pros and cons are pretty much exactly the same as what we heard with Zegras.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

From what I've seen of Wallstedt this year I think he has every right to be in the discussion with Knight and Askarov. Wallstedt is less athletic than Askarov but much more technically sound. Wallstedt is also more athletic than Knight but also much more athletic.

Knight and Askarov were picked outside of the top 10 but were thought of very highly in their draft years. Both of those guys in a redraft would move up several spots, and with Wallstedt being ranked consistently in the top 10 I wouldn't be surprised to see the same happen with Wallstedt if someone is too scared of drafting a goalie high.

It's entirely possible for Wallstedt to be the safe pick AND the best pick.

Wallstedt is also more athletic than Knight but also much more athletic.

Let me guess, he's more athletic?

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I don't know why we can't use guys from the last 5 years or so like Boldy or Zegras. I mean his pros and cons are pretty much exactly the same as what we heard with Zegras.

I don't know if either are great comparables. Zegras has a tenacity and fearlessness to his game that Johnson just lacks. And Zegras is a primary playdriver while Johnson is more of a finisher.

Boldy is another guy that's a playdriver and I'm shocked he was drafted as low as he was. Great skating, great passing, NHL size and strong defensively. He didn't have any notable weaknesses as a prospect and I think is a good bet to be a player with a 20-40-60 stat line regularly.

 

[Frk It]

I don't know if either are great comparables. Zegras has a tenacity and fearlessness to his game that Johnson just lacks. And Zegras is a primary playdriver while Johnson is more of a finisher.

Boldy is another guy that's a playdriver and I'm shocked he was drafted as low as he was. Great skating, great passing, NHL size and strong defensively. He didn't have any notable weaknesses as a prospect and I think is a good bet to be a player with a 20-40-60 stat line regularly.

The guy who had 60 assists last year in 52 games and 2:1 assists this year is more of a finisher? I'll disagree.

I think he helped create a lot of chances for Beniers this year.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Wallstedt is also more athletic than Knight but also much more athletic.

Let me guess, he's more athletic?

Copy and paste error. It's fixed now.

I meant to say that he's not as technically sound as Knight but is more athletic. Typing up posts on a cell phone kind of sucks.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Yeah, this is pretty much where I'm at with Wallstedt. Cleary a very good goalie prospect, I won't throw a tantrum if he's our pick (although I don't see it after Yzerman's comments). I'm also not a great evaluator of goalie prospects, I never really played goalie outside of youth levels.

In my own viewings, and after trying to read everything on Wallstedt, I just don't see quite enough there to bet with the #6 pick. If I could wave a magic wand and add him to our prospect pool I'd love to, he'd of course be our best goalie prospect in ages. But I'm just not quite sold enough on his upside to bet on him over some other players that I anticipate will be available.

I'm glad some folks here are bullish on Wallstedt though, it makes discussion a bit more varied.

To be fair, I'm bullish on his as a meme because I myself am a goalie. I simply don't know enough about any of these players to make any kind of reasonable call. When it comes to the draft, I'm not ever gonna burn the Wings for a pick the night of. All of my picks are unfounded and name based. It's why I like Sebastian Cossa over Wallstedt. Cossa is a 6'6" goalie who I could call Lil' Sebastian and titter in glee upon hearing his name while the rest of the board is completely dumbfounded.

At least this is true until the highlight videos are posted. I can see in the highlights when there are players who play a way I'm not all about (Bouchard was one. For all of his puck moving prowess, he seemed to make some pretty routine f***ups.)

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Copy and paste error. It's fixed now.

I meant to say that he's not as technically sound as Knight but is more athletic. Typing up posts on a cell phone kind of sucks.

Sorry, I was just being a dick.

And yeah, I could definitely see that. I'd probably go Knight > Askarov > Wallstedt, but be happy with any of the three. Give me greater technical prowess over athleticism in net, provided the technical goalie isn't a potted plant. Many less athletically inclined goalies have outperformed the agility superstars by simply being in the right spot more often than not.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

The guy who had 60 assists last year in 52 games and 2:1 assists this year is more of a finisher? I'll disagree.

Johnson isn't the guy that was carrying the puck through the neutral zone on a breakout. Beniers did the heavy lifting for him by getting it into the zone much of the time.

Here's a quick breakdown of Johnson's points through 22 games (March 3rd) that another poster wrote up.

Johnson
(10) 1 point games
(2) 2 point games
(1) 5 point game
(1) 4 point game

Points in 14/22

Berniers
(6) 1 point games
(5) 2 point games
(1) 3 point game

Points in 12/20

Another poster discussing their primary point differences in the same timeframe.

Beniers - 20 GP - 14 EV primary points
Johnson - 22GP - 9 EV primary points

Johnson is a very talented player but is more of his line's passenger than the play driver.

 

[Frk It]

Johnson isn't the guy that was carrying the puck through the neutral zone on a breakout. Beniers did the heavy lifting for him by getting it into the zone much of the time.

Here's a quick breakdown of Johnson's points through 22 games (March 3rd) that another poster wrote up.



Another poster discussing their primary point differences in the same timeframe.



Johnson is a very talented player but is more of his line's passenger than the play driver.

I’ll disagree again, I think he created a lot of chances offensively for Beniers.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I’ll disagree again, I think he created a lot of chances offensively for Beniers.

And those chances couldn't have happened without Beniers' play in the defensive and neutral zone to get the puck into the offensive zone many times. Those players obviously complemented each other well but Johnson benefited more from Beniers than Benier benefited from Johnson.

 

[Frk It]

And those chances couldn't have happened without Beniers' play in the defensive and neutral zone to get the puck into the offensive zone many times. Those players obviously complemented each other well but Johnson benefited more from Beniers than Benier benefited from Johnson.

Well, there’s value in both. The heavy lifting and the offensive creator.

Who’s draft stock rose more this year? Maybe you should ask yourself if it was all Beniers there?

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

I love both Johnson and Beniers, that's no secret. But I'd point out that plenty of reputable scouting services had Johnson in their top 5 before he had ever met Matty Beniers. I think it's worth watching the first Minnesota series this year - Johnson basically carried Michigan on his back while players like Beniers, York, etc. were out for the WJCs.

For what it's worth I'll point out that I shared all of the usual concerns about Johnson this time last year, I was pretty skeptical. I've been a Beniers truther for years now, but I wasn't really sold on Johnson's BCHL production. He really won me over as the season progressed. I think a lot of folks who maybe didn't get a chance to watch Michigan play night in and night out underestimate how much Johnson has improved this year.

Edit: Of course, reasonable people can disagree on Johnson's projection. But I think he's a player whose growth is a lot more evident when watching chronologically instead of over the course of highlight videos and articles. For the most part, folks I talk to who've watched Michigan all year are very high on the kid.

 

[r0bert8841]

Trying to come to conclusions like that about Beniers/Johnson is rash. The NCAA is a tough league, you rarely see draft eligible prospects playing college hockey let alone putting up decent numbers. I’m sure both guys had facets of their games that they couldn’t put on display due to the increased competition. Give them some time to develop properly. I think Johnson will take a year or two longer to develop but will be every bit as much a play driver as Beniers, with more skill.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Well, there’s value in both. The heavy lifting and the offensive creator.

Who’s draft stock rose more this year? Maybe you should ask yourself who helped who the most?

I think the answer here is Beniers, easily. I'm not one to put too much stock in the difference between primary and secondary assists because both matter. (For instance a defenseman making a great pinch to hold the line then passing the puck to someone who shoots it and has their shot tipped in deserves just as much credit for offensive involvement than the shooter and goalscorer because the play would have been dead without them holding the line.)

But look at when a lot of the points were generated. Johnson benefited from blow outs more His 4 point game was against Arizona State in an 8-1 win. 3 of his 4 points came when the game was well out of hand
Ice Hockey vs Arizona State on 11/14/2020 - Box Score - University of Michigan Athletics

Here's his 5 point night where he earned 4 of them after the game was already 4-0 for U of M.
Ice Hockey vs Michigan State on 1/8/2021 - Box Score - University of Michigan Athletics

9 of his points were generated late in 2 major blowouts of 8-1 and 9-0.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I love both Johnson and Beniers, that's no secret. But I'd point out that plenty of reputable scouting services had Johnson in their top 5 before he had ever met Matty Beniers. I think it's worth watching the first Minnesota series this year - Johnson basically carried Michigan on his back while players like Beniers, York, etc. were out for the WJCs.

For what it's worth I'll point out that I shared all of the usual concerns about Johnson this time last year, I was pretty skeptical. I've been a Beniers truther for years now, but I wasn't really sold on Johnson's BCHL production. He really won me over as the season progressed. I think a lot of folks who maybe didn't get a chance to watch Michigan play night in and night out underestimate how much Johnson has improved this year.

Edit: Of course, reasonable people can disagree on Johnson's projection. But I think he's a player whose growth is a lot more evident when watching chronologically instead of over the course of highlight videos and articles. For the most part, folks I talk to who've watched Michigan all year are very high on the kid.

That series against Minnesota when U of M was missing players was where we saw Johnson playing center. And he didn't carry the team, my dude. He was a defensive liability and U of M as a whole looked bad and Johnson went 8 and 8 in the faceoff circle (2-1 on faceoffs in a 3-1 loss, 6-7 on faceoffs in the 4-0 loss).

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

That series against Minnesota when U of M was missing players was where we saw Johnson playing center. And he didn't carry the team, my dude. He was a defensive liability and U of M as a whole looked bad and Johnson went 8 and 8 in the faceoff circle (2-1 on faceoffs in a 3-1 loss, 6-7 on faceoffs in the 4-0 loss).

Well for one thing, those faceoff numbers are fine. Especially for a freshmen playing center for the first time that year against a top 10 NCAA team. They're also totally irrelevant since it's a two game sample size and I'm not really talking about Johnson's projection as a center.

He created the only goal that series out of thin air, and worked really hard to create offense with essentially no help. He was playing out of position against an excellent team. I thought he did very well personally, but if you disagree that's fine.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

Also, if it's Beniers stock that improved once he played with Johnson, while Johnson's stock stagnated... wouldn't that suggest Beniers is the beneficiary of the pairing?

Again, I don't think either are riding the other's coattails. But if that discussion is being had, I don't think that's a helpful argument against Johnson.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Also, if it's Beniers stock that improved once he played with Johnson, while Johnson's stock stagnated... wouldn't that suggest Beniers is the beneficiary of the pairing?

Again, I don't think either are riding the other's coattails. But if that discussion is being had, I don't think that's a helpful argument against Johnson.

Beniers was thought of as a mid to late 1st last year prior to the 2020-21 season. He played lights out solid defensive hockey and was the top center on one of the best NCAA teams in the country. Then played rock solid defensively for a gold medal winning WJC20 USA team, and played really solid against men at the IIHF WHC. Playing with Johnson on his wing isn't what elevated Beniers to a top 5 pick status. I think it's safe to say that Beniers carried his own water.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

Beniers was thought of as a mid to late 1st last year prior to the 2020-21 season. He played lights out solid defensive hockey and was the top center on one of the best NCAA teams in the country. Then played rock solid defensively for a gold medal winning WJC20 USA team, and played really solid against men at the IIHF WHC. Playing with Johnson on his wing isn't what elevated Beniers to a top 5 pick status. I think it's safe to say that Beniers carried his own water.

Oh I totally agree that Beniers' stock improved through his own merit. But Johnson has been viewed as a top 10 if not top 5 prospect in this draft for a long time. The claim that his production is a product of Beniers would be more persuasive if Johnson wasn't such a highly regarded prospect prior to his time at Michigan.

 

[Bench]

Technically of Vasilevsky/Fleury/Price/Hellebuyck, one could argue that Fleury is the most athletic, Price is the most technically sound, Vasilevsky has the highest IQ, and Hellebuyck has the most well-rounded overall package but not high in any of the categories that make the other three elite. That being said, taking any one of them with a first round pick doesn't mean you've drafted an inferior goalie. That's how I view Wallstedt. He may not be the most athletic, but if his technical skill and IQ are superior...you grab him and run away giggling because you've drafted a #1 goalie.

This is why goalies drive people crazy.

You can't just take the best athlete and expect them to produce, as you might a forward. So much more of the game is decision making and between the ears for goalies.

So when you're drafting a 17/18 year old netminder, it's not a bad idea to get a solid read on the kind of kid they are. Their temperament and how they handle adversity. Their training and consistency with the rigors of a routine.

I've said many times Askarov has all the raw tools to make him an elite puck stopper, but that doesn't mean he'll end up the best overall of this new wave of great goalies. Wallstedt has that poise and calm to his game that elicits comparisons to Lundqvist, Swedish connection notwithstanding. His actual technique borrows a lot from the Lundqvist playbook, specifically where they take shots from the crease.

There are times scouts will overthink development and deem a prospect already fully baked at 18 with less room to grow. Usually this happens when all their metrics look NHL ready but they don't immediately slot into a roster position.

For us Wings fans, I think the most memorable example of this was being told Chychrun didn't have anymore ceiling. He was good now, but he's done baking. Meanwhile, Cholowski was just waiting to grow, become strong, and have so much potential. Fast forward to today and it's pretty clear maybe the kid who looked like an NHL player right away was the better prospect.

This is my round about way of saying if people think Wallstedt doesn't have as much potential left... Good. I don't see a single reason he can't be an NHL starter in a few short years. No need to drag out his development to age 27 wondering if he'll put it together ala Markstrom.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Beniers was thought of as a mid to late 1st last year prior to the 2020-21 season. He played lights out solid defensive hockey and was the top center on one of the best NCAA teams in the country. Then played rock solid defensively for a gold medal winning WJC20 USA team, and played really solid against men at the IIHF WHC. Playing with Johnson on his wing isn't what elevated Beniers to a top 5 pick status. I think it's safe to say that Beniers carried his own water.

Who exactly considered Beniers a mid-to-late first round pick coming into this season? I agree that Beniers (primarily) alone is responsible for his current draft stock, but he was always well regarded as a prospect while with the NDTP.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

Who exactly considered Beniers a mid-to-late first round pick coming into this season? I agree that Beniers (primarily) alone is responsible for his current draft stock, but he was always well regarded as a prospect while with the NDTP.

Mid to late might be a stretch, but I mostly agree with OO there. I think Beniers stock has risen pretty significantly from the 10-15 range to the 1-5 range.