Prospect Info: 2021 NHL Draft Prospects

[Michael Brand Eggs]

Mason McTavish has looked really good at the u18s. Could he be an option for the Wings? Not sure he has the raw upside, personally, but I've been wrong before...

 

[lilidk]

Mason McTavish has looked really good at the u18s. Could he be an option for the Wings? Not sure he has the raw upside, personally, but I've been wrong before...

Worse case scenario we drafting around 10, I would be very happy with that pic.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Mason McTavish has looked really good at the u18s. Could he be an option for the Wings? Not sure he has the raw upside, personally, but I've been wrong before...

I like the kid. I don't see high end playmaking upside but he's got the tools to be a legit modern power forward in today's NHL. With a solid playmaker on his line the guy looks like the kind of player that gets 25-30 ugly-ass goals and 20 assists. You go to war with these kinds of guys in the playoffs.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

Age Bias at the NHL Draft

ESPN: Breaking down the birthday bias.

Making the NHL: Does your birthday matter?

The Outlier Effect

We know about size bias in drafting, but do we understand age bias?

It's less to do with actual age at the draft and more to do with the quarter they were born in.

I don't really know where I stand on the late birthday issue (I lean towards it doesn't matter too much, but it's circumstantial), but I always appreciate this level of dedication to citing sources.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

My tiers as draft day approaches-

Tier "Alexa, play Detroit Rock City" : Luke Hughes, Owen Power, Matt Beniers, Kent Johnson

Tier "Probably not the best on my board, but I like them" : Dylan Guenther, Fabian Lysell, William Eklund

Tier "I don't love it, but I get the reasoning" : Simon Edvinsson, Brandt Clarke, Jesper Wallstedt

Tier "Reaches I don't hate/guys I pray fall to the WSH 1st" : Mackie Samoskevich, Carson Lambos, Sebastian Cossa, Oskar Olausson, Zachary Bolduc

Tier "Guys I'd like to see play more" : Francesco Pinelli, Mason McTavish, Chaz Lucius

 

[Killerjas]

My tiers as draft day approaches-

Tier "Alexa, play Detroit Rock City" : Luke Hughes, Owen Power, Matt Beniers, Kent Johnson

Tier "Probably not the best on my board, but I like them" : Dylan Guenther, Fabian Lysell, William Eklund

Tier "I don't love it, but I get the reasoning" : Simon Edvinsson, Brandt Clarke, Jesper Wallstedt

Tier "Reaches I don't hate/guys I pray fall to the WSH 1st" : Mackie Samoskevich, Carson Lambos, Sebastian Cossa, Oskar Olausson, Zachary Bolduc

Tier "Guys I'd like to see play more" : Francesco Pinelli, Mason McTavish, Chaz Lucius

Switch Johnson with Eklund. Wallstedt in tier 2. McTavish atleast in tier 3.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

Switch Johnson with Eklund. Wallstedt in tier 2. McTavish atleast in tier 3.

 

[lilidk]

There are 2 Chayka in this draft. One is arguably the best Russian in this draft LD , we could target with Washington pick and second, surprisingly good goaltender from Belarus in u18wjc

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Posted this in the other thread as well.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

Posted this in the other thread as well.

I like Clarke, I have no issue with him ranked as the #1 D in this class, he's having a great tournament. But stats like this are next to worthless for me.

Canada has played four games against Belarus, Latvia, Switzerland, and Sweden. The first three teams aren't in the same stratosphere of talent as Canada. Sweden, granted, should be, but it was the first game of the tournament and they got massacred. You see that a lot with youth tournaments like this, same thing happened to the US vs. Russia last WJC (albeit not as lopsided). I really hope that none of our scouts are seeing Clarke's CF stats over this four game sample as any meaningful predictor.

If we take Clarke I'm cool with it, I just hope it's based more off his D-1 OHL year and his 20+ pro games in Slovakia this year. International youth tournaments are notoriously not a good indicator of benchmarking top prospects.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I like Clarke, I have no issue with him ranked as the #1 D in this class, he's having a great tournament. But stats like this are next to worthless for me.

Canada has played four games against Belarus, Latvia, Switzerland, and Sweden. The first three teams aren't in the same stratosphere of talent as Canada. Sweden, granted, should be, but it was the first game of the tournament and they got massacred. You see that a lot with youth tournaments like this, same thing happened to the US vs. Russia last WJC (albeit not as lopsided). I really hope that none of our scouts are seeing Clarke's CF stats over this four game sample as any meaningful predictor.

If we take Clarke I'm cool with it, I just hope it's based more off his D-1 OHL year and his 20+ pro games in Slovakia this year. International youth tournaments are notoriously not a good indicator of benchmarking top prospects.

If we take Clarke it may be a combination of those things. The tournament may have some poor teams but he's still dominating peers in his age group, which is where you want a guy that's possibly top 5 to be.

I can't help but hope that if we draft Clarke, then he and Seider become our Niedermeyer and Stevens, or our Niedermeyer and Pronger.

 

[Killerjas]

I just think Johnson's skating is just not elite enough. Prefer the upside from Eklund

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

I just think Johnson's skating is just not elite enough. Prefer the upsids from Eklund

That's fair, I actually prefer Johnson's skating to Eklund's though. I think their first step and top speed is similar, and I think Johnson has much better edge work.

 

[Frk It]

I like Clarke, I have no issue with him ranked as the #1 D in this class, he's having a great tournament. But stats like this are next to worthless for me.

Exactly.

That said, he has looked impressive so far. Just a smooth operator with the puck.

This tournament does not give me any idea how his skating will progress, unfortunately. If we think he will make gains there, fine with taking him anywhere in that 5-8 range if we pick there, even if it’s another RD. The things he does well, he does really well.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I just think Johnson's skating is just not elite enough. Prefer the upside from Eklund

I don't see a ton wrong with the mechanics. Most of what I see is a power issue, which makes sense because he has a lot of physical development left. I think he has good edges, he has decent top end already, he needs more explosion, but I don't see bad knee bend or any of the locked kind of features that would scare you in terms of skating.

Kent Johnson for me is what I have learned from being lower on Trevor Zegras. While I don't love all the flash and think some of what he does might not work at the NHL level, I have to grant he has an exceptional offensive hockey brain. He sold me enough at U of M, this guy is going to score at all levels.

 

[lilidk]

That's fair, I actually prefer Johnson's skating to Eklund's though. I think their first step and top speed is similar, and I think Johnson has much better edge work.

Johnson also more skilled, just don't know if Johnson can play in SHL and dominate there

 

[Realgud]

My tiers as draft day approaches-

Tier "Alexa, play Detroit Rock City" : Luke Hughes, Owen Power, Matt Beniers, Kent Johnson

Tier "Probably not the best on my board, but I like them" : Dylan Guenther, Fabian Lysell, William Eklund

Tier "I don't love it, but I get the reasoning" : Simon Edvinsson, Brandt Clarke, Jesper Wallstedt

Tier "Reaches I don't hate/guys I pray fall to the WSH 1st" : Mackie Samoskevich, Carson Lambos, Sebastian Cossa, Oskar Olausson, Zachary Bolduc

Tier "Guys I'd like to see play more" : Francesco Pinelli, Mason McTavish, Chaz Lucius

I like this a lot. I share a lot of similar thoughts for now. Some guys I still need to look into a little bit more, but I feel the same about a lot of these. I'd probably put Raty in the "WSH 1st" tier.

 

[Frk It]

I don't see a ton wrong with the mechanics. Most of what I see is a power issue, which makes sense because he has a lot of physical development left. I think he has good edges, he has decent top end already, he needs more explosion, but I don't see bad knee bend or any of the locked kind of features that would scare you in terms of skating.

Kent Johnson for me is what I have learned from being lower on Trevor Zegras. While I don't love all the flash and think some of what he does might not work at the NHL level, I have to grant he has an exceptional offensive hockey brain. He sold me enough at U of M, this guy is going to score at all levels.

I'm a little surprised there is not more of a push for Johnson on this board. Usually players that can do what he can with the puck are more coveted on here.

He had a good season at Michigan. Yes, Beniers did a lot of the heavy lifting... but Johnson did a lot of the creating offensively.

 

[Killerjas]

I'm a little surprised there is not more of a push for Johnson on this board. Usually players that can do what he can with the puck are more coveted on here.

He had a good season at Michigan. Yes, Beniers did a lot of the heavy lifting... but Johnson did a lot of the creating offensively.

Because of his skating, it has been discussed on this board before

 

[Frk It]

Because of his skating, it has been discussed on this board before

Looks terrible...

 

[Winger98]

I'm a little surprised there is not more of a push for Johnson on this board. Usually players that can do what he can with the puck are more coveted on here.

He had a good season at Michigan. Yes, Beniers did a lot of the heavy lifting... but Johnson did a lot of the creating offensively.

I think a lot of folks don't want to even entertain the idea of drafting a guy who is likely to stay on the wing, at least not with that first pick.

 

[Frk It]

I think a lot of folks don't want to even entertain the idea of drafting a guy who is likely to stay on the wing, at least not with that first pick.

Well, then we should only be taking about Beniers.

 

[Winger98]

Well, then we should only be taking about Beniers.

Raty!

Seriously, though, yeah. I think that's why Beniers does get more talk and people bring up Edvinsson, Clark, etc. if they're not talking about Hughes/Power. Regardless of who we draft I think Yzerman has enough goodwill that people will just say, "trust yzerplan!" and go with it but truth be told a lot of us don't want to see another wing called.

If we end up drafting in that 6-10 area I know I become way more open to Wallstedt over a guy likely to stay on the wing. I'm not as big on it as I was on Askarov, but it's there for me. I'm really hoping that we draft something like 5th and, for some reason, Hughes falls to us.

 

[newfy]

I'm a little surprised there is not more of a push for Johnson on this board. Usually players that can do what he can with the puck are more coveted on here.

He had a good season at Michigan. Yes, Beniers did a lot of the heavy lifting... but Johnson did a lot of the creating offensively.

Yeah and the not a center stuff was the exact same stuff said about Zegras as well.

But ya Beniers definitely did more "heavy lifting", but I still see no credit given for Johnson coming in from a crappier league, with way less training and still outscoring Beniers. Beniers hasb een playing against men for a while in the NCAA, the shock for Johnson jumping to a league that strong gets no credit at all

 

[simonedvinsson]

I think a lot of folks don't want to even entertain the idea of drafting a guy who is likely to stay on the wing, at least not with that first pick.

My primary issue with Johnson is his engagement off the puck. When the puck wasn't on Johnson's stick, he seemed to vanish into thin air. How much of that has to do with transitioning from the BCHL to the NCAA, I can't say. His position is certainly part of the issue though. I'd rather not draft a wing, but if we're going to, I'd prefer someone who has a better all-around presence, a la Lysell, Guenther, or Eklund. I do like what Johnson does with the puck though, and maybe he's worth the gamble. Maybe you give him another two seasons in the NCAA and let him figure out his center game before promoting him to the AHL and give him time and space to develop the rest of his game. It wouldn't be hard to talk me into it. I think he's going to be a good player. He was frustrating in the games I watched, but we wouldn't be drafting Kent Johnson for who he is but who he can become.

Ultimately, until we know where we're drafting, it's hard for me to commit to someone. I really like the three left-handed defensemen, but odds are slim they're available when Detroit picks. After that, there are probably ten players I could justify taking.