2021-2022 S Blues Multi Purpose Thread Part 2

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simon IC

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MissouriMook

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Still wouldn't be surprised if someone grabbed him still
I guess my point was that the contract wasn't putting anyone off grabbing him for free fairly recently. We're certainly not going to get anything for him given that he's done nothing since he cleared waivers to garner any renewed interest. I just don't think he's an NHL player at this point.
 
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Linkens Mastery

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I guess my point was that the contract wasn't putting anyone off grabbing him for free fairly recently. We're certainly not going to get anything for him given that he's done nothing since he cleared waivers to garner any renewed interest. I just don't think he's an NHL player at this point.
You could say the same about Clifford. A team who needs someone who can be sent down to the minors may have interest.
 

execwrite1

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Pleased with the season at this point but some troubling signs. The Maple Leaf and Winnipeg home losses are concerning.

Based on games in hand Blues are a wild card seed right now. It will be a fight to the finish to make the playoffs.
 

Ceiling Unlimited

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Pleased with the season at this point but some troubling signs. The Maple Leaf and Winnipeg home losses are concerning.

Based on games in hand Blues are a wild card seed right now. It will be a fight to the finish to make the playoffs.

They need to come out of the break strong. If they can't bank points against the schedule that they have in February (especially) and March, then they will be in trouble.

I'm hoping that the break will be a good reset point. They've looked out of sorts the past few games and didn't really seem to have an identity. Have to get back to fundamentals.
 

Majorityof1

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They need to come out of the break strong. If they can't bank points against the schedule that they have in February (especially) and March, then they will be in trouble.

I'm hoping that the break will be a good reset point. They've looked out of sorts the past few games and didn't really seem to have an identity. Have to get back to fundamentals.

We are in a pretty good position to at least make the playoffs. The Athletic has us at 8% chance to miss the playoffs in their model. Only a 2% chance to win it all and 4% chance to make the finals so its not all good. They have us very comfortably as a first round exit.

We are actually 3rd in the conference in point percentage. Our division is tough, so we are in a dog fight to get the top 3 in the division. But we have a big lead on the first wild card spot. Anaheim and Edmonton are fighting for 3rd in Pacific. So whoever loses that battle will be our closest competition for 1st WC spot. They are both on pace for 94 points. We are on pace for 106 points, so we have a big edge. One of them could surge, but that would put them in the top 3 in their conference. If both surge, we also have a fairly handy lead on Calgary who is currently sitting 2nd in the Pacific.

It would take a huge surge from multiple teams to knock us out of the playoffs, or a catastrophic failure on our part. Even if we drop to a .500 point capture for our remaining games (from our current .648), that puts us at 95 points and the first wild card spot if everyone else stays on pace.
 
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Reality Czech

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Pleased with the season at this point but some troubling signs. The Maple Leaf and Winnipeg home losses are concerning.

Based on games in hand Blues are a wild card seed right now. It will be a fight to the finish to make the playoffs.

Seems like it always is in the central division. Looks like the deepest division in the league by far once again. No free lunches in the central!
 
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Brian39

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Seems like it always is in the central division. Looks like the deepest division in the league by far once again. No free lunches in the central!
The East is so weird this year. I can't recall another season where all 8 playoff teams were basically locked in by the 40 game mark. The WC2 has a .631 at the moment and then the first team out is .489. It's such a stark drop off in team quality exactly at the playoff cut line.

The Pacific actually has a case to make as the deepest division this year. Teams 5-7 are all at .500 or better and their .500 team at #7 has been hot since getting a new coach. It's hard to make an argument that our 7th place Hawks (.443) are better than their 7th place Canucks and the Kraken are definitely better than the Coyotes.

The Central is definitely a better division than the Pacific overall. The top half is very good and you can't ignore that we have 4 teams that would currently be 1st in the Pacific (by points and points percentage). I have no idea whether I would say that the Central or Atlantic is the best in the NHL. I think that their 3 headed monster up top is more impressive than the Central's and I feel confident that Boston would be hanging around us and Nashville if they were in our division. I'm not sure that the higher top end outweighs our better middle and it is so hard to tell how points get inflated with the absolute clown show that is the bottom half of the East this year.
 

Stupendous Yappi

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The East is so weird this year. I can't recall another season where all 8 playoff teams were basically locked in by the 40 game mark. The WC2 has a .631 at the moment and then the first team out is .489. It's such a stark drop off in team quality exactly at the playoff cut line.

The Pacific actually has a case to make as the deepest division this year. Teams 5-7 are all at .500 or better and their .500 team at #7 has been hot since getting a new coach. It's hard to make an argument that our 7th place Hawks (.443) are better than their 7th place Canucks and the Kraken are definitely better than the Coyotes.

The Central is definitely a better division than the Pacific overall. The top half is very good and you can't ignore that we have 4 teams that would currently be 1st in the Pacific (by points and points percentage). I have no idea whether I would say that the Central or Atlantic is the best in the NHL. I think that their 3 headed monster up top is more impressive than the Central's and I feel confident that Boston would be hanging around us and Nashville if they were in our division. I'm not sure that the higher top end outweighs our better middle and it is so hard to tell how points get inflated with the absolute clown show that is the bottom half of the East this year.
Have you watched the Coyotes or Kraken games lately? I'm not sure there is much to distinguish them.
 
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Brian39

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Have you watched the Coyotes or Kraken games lately? I'm not sure there is much to distinguish them.
I get what you're saying, but even lately the Coyotes have been noticeably worse. The Coyotes have been outscored 22-8 in a 5 game losing streak while the Kraken are down 16-11 on the way to a 2-3 stretch. They've each had a brutal losing streak (Arizona's was 11 games and Seattle's was 9). Arizona has only put together back to back wins twice while Seattle has done it four times. Grubauer might be finding his game, going 4-2 with a .905 over his last 6 starts (he was 7-15-4 with an .880 on the year before that).

Seattle is not good, but they have an 8 point lead on the Coyotes despite getting .885 goaltending so far this year. Arizona has been getting .894 goaltending this season. Seattle's goalies have allowed 30.5 goals above expected this year while Arizona is at -22.6. I will be shocked if Seattle's goaltending stays this poor. I won't be surprised if Grubauer isn't worth anything close to his contract, but I will be surprised if he stays as bad as he's been. He has a -21.28 GSAA at 5 on 5 through just 33 games this season. They might not get good goaltending, but it is very difficult to imagine them not getting better than .885. Meanwhile, Arizona's goaltending might be exceeding expectations. They have landed on a Vejmelka/Wedgewood tandem that sees both guys right about at .900 for the year (.902 and .899). I think it is much more likely that Gurb/Dreidger outplays their first half than it is Vej/Wedge do. Any relative improvement from Seattle's goaltending should widen the existing gap between the two teams.

I get it, Seattle is not good. But they are 8 points up on the Yotes thanks to competent play recently and have gotten their points while getting worse goaltending than the Yotes from what should be a better tandem. The Coyotes and Habs are on a different plane of terrible than the rest of the league. They are both on pace to finish with fewer points than any other team in the cap era (excluding shortened seasons).
 
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PocketNines

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The Blues (.648) are 3d in the Central by percentage by .004 over a wild card spot (Nashville, .644). They do not have a wide gap over the first wild card.

But the 1st wild card spot is likely desirable. The fourth team in the Central is going to play Vegas and have to go through the Pacific in round 2.

The problem is the Blues are the most vulnerable team in the league at giving up scoring chances off a forecheck. That's either got to be fixed or there is zero chance to compete for the Stanley Cup in a real way. You can't be the most easily caved-in team and tell your fans to hope for a Cup.
 
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LGB

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I'd really like to see Thomas and Buchnevich playing together again. He's the linemate Thomas has had the most success with by far, and I really think their games just complement each other very well. Buch strikes me as the perfect guy to play with a very talented play-driver like Thomas. He's a smart player, but not very dynamic himself so it's nice to have someone on his line that can create. He also has shown a dangerous one-timer that we know Thomas can give him opportunities to take advantage of. In 110.6 minutes together they've had a 62.5 CF%, 65.8 xGF%, and outscored opponents 6-3. Thomas' results without Buchnevich are surprisingly poor with a CF% and xGF% of about 45 but still finding a way to just barely outscore opponents.
 

Stupendous Yappi

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The Blues (.648) are 3d in the Central by percentage by .004 over a wild card spot (Nashville, .644). They do not have a wide gap over the first wild card.

But the 1st wild card spot is likely desirable. The fourth team in the Central is going to play Vegas and have to go through the Pacific in round 2.

The problem is the Blues are the most vulnerable team in the league at giving up scoring chances off a forecheck. That's either got to be fixed or there is zero chance to compete for the Stanley Cup in a real way. You can't be the most easily caved-in team and tell your fans to hope for a Cup.
If Colorado is a likely first round opponent, the chances of getting out of the first round are close to the same as the chances of being a Cup favorite, for St Louis. It would be nice to avoid them at least for one round, and preferably longer. Plus, I would really enjoy a Vegas series. Lots of great story lines, and maybe Eichel?

I'm not sure how serious of contenders the Blues can actually be this year. Assuming a move is made for the defense, I don't see anything really changing Colorado's heavy favorite status.
 
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Brian39

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If Colorado is a likely first round opponent, the chances of getting out of the first round are close to the same as the chances of being a Cup favorite, for St Louis. It would be nice to avoid them at least for one round, and preferably longer. Plus, I would really enjoy a Vegas series. Lots of great story lines, and maybe Eichel?

I'm not sure how serious of contenders the Blues can actually be this year. Assuming a move is made for the defense, I don't see anything really changing Colorado's heavy favorite status.
We should avoid them in round 1 barring a big collapse that leaves us fighting for a playoff spot. The Avs are going to be the 1 seed. They are 9 points up on 2nd place with 2 games in hand and 10 points up on us with 1 game in hand. The only team that is hanging in there is Minnesota, who is 10 points back with 3 games in hand. U have zero confidence that Minnesota closes that gap.

We're 9 points up on the WC2 spot (although we've played 2 more games than them). We're also just 1 point back of Nashville with a game in hand. We would need to get passed by both to be the WC2 and have to play Colorado in round 1. I would also enjoy a Vegas series in round 1.
 
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