2021-2022 S Blues Multi Purpose Thread Part 2
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ChicagoBlues
Terraformers
- Oct 24, 2006
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Celtic Note
Living the dream
- Dec 22, 2006
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So, about Parayko. What the deal with this guy? He used to be one of my favorites to watch but in the last two playoffs and the last two seasons he has been bad. I would give him slack from the back problems he dealt with last year, but he has been poor before the injury and again this year. During this season, I see no lingering back issues, as his speed, mobility and agility all seem to be at pre injury levels.
Was the anointment of being a leader and #1 D too much for him to handle? Is he trying to do too much?
What’s the prognosis for how to get him back to to a respectable defensive game? Or do we need to consider that he isn’t likely to return to form and it’s time to consider a move?
Was the anointment of being a leader and #1 D too much for him to handle? Is he trying to do too much?
What’s the prognosis for how to get him back to to a respectable defensive game? Or do we need to consider that he isn’t likely to return to form and it’s time to consider a move?
EastVillageBlues
Registered User
- Feb 18, 2019
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Could be due largely to the lack of a steady partner like Jaybo. He isn't really the type of player that can thrive on any pairing.
i was just speaking to this in game thread. what people sometimes miss about jaybo is that even though he wasn't same player as when he was younger, he was so smart and rarely made mistakes out there. parayko doesn't trust scandella or miko to do that and it has messed with his confidence. so parayko is now a mess. he needs steady partner that he can trust to be in right place and not do anything stupid with puck. which is why i think guy like gio is better option to be parayko partner than someone like chycrun.
bleedblue1223
Registered User
- Jan 21, 2011
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Part of it is also usage with Parayko. In the Cup year, they made the switch of having him being the primary shutdown guy and freeing Petro up a bit. Ever since then, he's been given more and more of a heavier defensive role, and IMO it's just gotten to a point where it's too much. This is the problem when we give Krug/Faulk heavy offensive minutes, and then a 3rd pair that we can't really rely on either. We have to find a way to lighten the load on Parayko for him to get back to his old self.
bleedblue1223
Registered User
- Jan 21, 2011
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I think it really highlights why we desperately need a quality 2-way guy for the left side. Either someone with Parayko that will allow that pairing to be good in extreme defensive usage or someone that can be added to the group of 6, to allow deployment to get a bit more balanced, where Parayko is still the shutdown pair, but not to such an extreme degree.
PocketNines
Cutter's Way
Armstrong Brewer'd Parayko when he announced Parayko was the #1 defenseman. This never made sense, as Parayko has never flashed the instincts or skill in the offensive zone to suggest to a person who has watched hockey as long as Armstrong has that he was a #1. "Because of my principles around NMC, Parayko is now required to be a #1." That would have been honest. It is what has happened. Did he do that? No, he put Parayko in a position where more is expected of him than he has ever suggested he could give, and it is not working out well. Aka "Brewer'd." The hole created by these almighty NMC principles has not been filled.
Binnington wasn't good last night nor has he been good recently. But last night's debacle is on the skaters who played a "quit on the ice" type of effort and allowed 18-2 shots in the second period. That's a no-show.
Klim Kostin. This is rough to watch. We are closing in on bust territory. His pure quit body language on the seventh goal bothered me. He's already been killing the 4th line with his lack of ability. If he is playing in the playoffs the Blues are not that deep up front past the scorers. Dakota Joshua is a smarter and better hockey player than Kostin.
Robert Thomas was unbelievably bad last night. Kyrou had a lot of one and done quit energy too. You could easily imagine the waterfalling frustration just blanketing this team when it faces a determined and physical opponent like we saw last year with Colorado. He and Kyrou who had a very a weak game last night also are not yet to the maturity level they will need to carry an offense in the playoffs. They are having fun in the regular season open ice though.
Logan Brown had a nice burst that time in front of his dad when his dad was in the third row having a beer. Cool! But is there anything more than that or are we done here?
Since his concussion Perron is a shell of himself. It reminds me of the rough end to Geoff Courtnall's career when Owen Nolan attacked his livelihood with a gutless blindside elbow and ended it. Perron's shot seems gone. Whereas his start this season, late career productivity rise and previous discount contracts led me to speculate a significant contract in the offseason, at this point he looks close to done.
Mikkola looked unbelievably bad last night. That game should completely end the counterarguments that Mikkola is becoming some stalwart reputation defenseman before our eyes. Pang in particular has been raving about Mikkola's improvement each week. That is the kind of game that makes Mikkola + Kostin + 1st seem like an easy Brent Burns template for Chychrun, if only Bill Armstrong could be thus bamboozled.
If Perunovich is too dominant to play in the AHL but cannot crack this defense then it is time to get what value you can for him while he still has left those impressions of major skill with some scouts around the league. If he is good enough to crack this defense let's see it.
The Blues rank 32d out of 32 teams at handling the forecheck. That is a playoff death sentence. No team could win the Cup ranking dead last at handling a forecheck. They give up an average of nearly 4 scoring chances a game off turnovers created by the forecheck. That's an average, so for every scrub team they hold down to fewer forecheck chances there's a good team generating even more of them on the other side of that average. All that has to happen in the playoffs is the tough opponent we face converts on a couple of those forecheck chances early in a game and then locks down that game using physical will on our less willful players. That is the literal blueprint for how the Blues defeated opponents on the Cup run and it's how Blues teams have been typically defeated through the years, which was why the Cup run was so satisfying and felt different as it was unfolding. We are currently lining up for more of the same. Over reliance on elite special teams and not so hot either 5v5 or on the road is the diametric opposite of the Cup run from a few years ago.
Binnington wasn't good last night nor has he been good recently. But last night's debacle is on the skaters who played a "quit on the ice" type of effort and allowed 18-2 shots in the second period. That's a no-show.
Klim Kostin. This is rough to watch. We are closing in on bust territory. His pure quit body language on the seventh goal bothered me. He's already been killing the 4th line with his lack of ability. If he is playing in the playoffs the Blues are not that deep up front past the scorers. Dakota Joshua is a smarter and better hockey player than Kostin.
Robert Thomas was unbelievably bad last night. Kyrou had a lot of one and done quit energy too. You could easily imagine the waterfalling frustration just blanketing this team when it faces a determined and physical opponent like we saw last year with Colorado. He and Kyrou who had a very a weak game last night also are not yet to the maturity level they will need to carry an offense in the playoffs. They are having fun in the regular season open ice though.
Logan Brown had a nice burst that time in front of his dad when his dad was in the third row having a beer. Cool! But is there anything more than that or are we done here?
Since his concussion Perron is a shell of himself. It reminds me of the rough end to Geoff Courtnall's career when Owen Nolan attacked his livelihood with a gutless blindside elbow and ended it. Perron's shot seems gone. Whereas his start this season, late career productivity rise and previous discount contracts led me to speculate a significant contract in the offseason, at this point he looks close to done.
Mikkola looked unbelievably bad last night. That game should completely end the counterarguments that Mikkola is becoming some stalwart reputation defenseman before our eyes. Pang in particular has been raving about Mikkola's improvement each week. That is the kind of game that makes Mikkola + Kostin + 1st seem like an easy Brent Burns template for Chychrun, if only Bill Armstrong could be thus bamboozled.
If Perunovich is too dominant to play in the AHL but cannot crack this defense then it is time to get what value you can for him while he still has left those impressions of major skill with some scouts around the league. If he is good enough to crack this defense let's see it.
The Blues rank 32d out of 32 teams at handling the forecheck. That is a playoff death sentence. No team could win the Cup ranking dead last at handling a forecheck. They give up an average of nearly 4 scoring chances a game off turnovers created by the forecheck. That's an average, so for every scrub team they hold down to fewer forecheck chances there's a good team generating even more of them on the other side of that average. All that has to happen in the playoffs is the tough opponent we face converts on a couple of those forecheck chances early in a game and then locks down that game using physical will on our less willful players. That is the literal blueprint for how the Blues defeated opponents on the Cup run and it's how Blues teams have been typically defeated through the years, which was why the Cup run was so satisfying and felt different as it was unfolding. We are currently lining up for more of the same. Over reliance on elite special teams and not so hot either 5v5 or on the road is the diametric opposite of the Cup run from a few years ago.
BadgersandBlues
Registered User
- Jun 6, 2011
- 1,885
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It's been half the season now I wanted to kinda touch on some things from last night and some other, more general trends from our team:
Top line - I think our team is a paper tiger. Our 5v5 numbers are NOT pretty. We're basically a bad (Ranked 27th in xGF) 5v5 team that's getting carried by amazing special teams. I focus mainly on Corsi, xGF%, and High Danger Chances, although I'll sprinkle some other stats in as I go. I'll start with the D-men (All numbers 5v5 unless otherwise stated):
Not a single one of our top 4 D (or actually any of our D-men, except for Calle f***ing Rosen, who's played less then 90 minutes this year lol) has a positive xGF on the season. The only D-men with positive Corsi are Rosen, Walman, and Peru, with Krug an even 50%. Scoring Chances are all in the negative except Rosen, Peru, and Krug (50.31, not much to talk about there). Most damning of all though, is High Danger Chances. Every single D-man is below water on HDCF% with our best being....this is going to make you laugh - Marco Scandella at 45.98%. This is all individual, now on to more "pairing" analysis:
Many people point to Krug and Faulk as being our most solid pair, but I think they've been ass frankly. They have a negative xGF% even though they start in the offensive zone around 63% of the time. They give up High Danger Chances at an absurd rate for this usage and the only thing making them look respectable is the fact that somehow, someway, we've converted High Danger Chances at a 2-1 rate while they're on the ice, which is completely unsustainable. This, along with the INSANE sheltering we've done of Peru (around 90% offensive zone starts) has lead to some bonkers usage for Parayko and Mikkola - coming in at an approx. 22% offensive zone start amount. That's crazy, and what's almost more crazy is that even with those insane splits, Parayko, since he's been paired with Mikkola, is only barely behind Krug/Faulk from an xGF perspective. For comparison, when paired with Jay-Bo as our "shut-down pair" from 2018-2020, Parayko started around 44% offensive zone starts during the regular season, dipping slightly to 39% during our Cup run. We all talk about them as the shut down pair pretty often, yet they were still averaging almost TWENTY PERCENT higher offensive zone starts then Parayko gets now with Mikkola. Parayko is also 4th in ES TOI per game in the entire league. I've been hard on Parayko this year, but we've basically asked him to be Superman for the last two+ months and he's honestly answered the call more often then not.
Overall, we have given up the 4th most High Danger Chances in the League and we are second to last in team HDCF%. Last night on the telecast there was some stat called forechecking chances against - we were dead last (I'm assuming where a team forechecks against us and gets a scoring chance out of it). In short, our overall D has been atrocious. This dovetails nicely into the next topic, goaltending:
I've been a vocal Binny supporter before. The man was amazing on the way to our one and only Stanley Cup. I've said it before and I'll say it again, the save he made on Nordstrom is THE SAVE we've always needed and didn't get. That puck goes in and all of a sudden it's 2-1 with 11 minutes left, Boston is fired up, the crowd is fired up, and I don't want to think about what happens next. Instead, he makes that save and within THREE MINUTES we crush their spirits with our third goal. It's the kind of swing you always see in hockey, one team misses on a golden chance and then the other team comes down and puts in the dagger. For once, thanks to him, it was us applying the dagger.
I still think he's a good goalie. When I watch, I see the same guy from the last 3-4 years. He is never going to be the guy who wows you with athleticism or edgework - but he's about as positionally sound as they come. He's an EXCELLENT first shot goalie who will, "Make all the saves he's supposed to," plus maybe a few he has no business of making, especially if you keep teams to the outside. When he came up, this is how the Blues were playing - great middle ice D, clogging up the lanes, forwards backchecking like crazy. Thing is, we don't play that way anymore. Long gone is the chip/chase/check of the 2018-2020 (At least until COVID shut us down) Blues. We play way looser with the puck then we used to - count how many times a game Kyrou or Thomas (As well as others, but those two are the most blatant about it) try to 1v3 at the opponent's blue-line only to cough the puck up and have the play transition quickly down the other way. It's no surprise we give up so many High Danger Chances - our puck management mentality has completely changed. Looking at all seven (ick) goals from last night, the only one he really had a chance on was the 1st one, and that was wired off the corner L of the post from what most in hockey would call the "Home Plate" area (Between the circles).
I know it seems crazy since all of our other goalies have better numbers, but the funny thing is - when Binny was out, we played a much better team game overall, thanks to the contributions of our TBird boys. Some of our highest Corsi and xGF players are guys like Walker, Joshua, and Brown. The only "Regular" forward with a positive xGF on the year is Buch. Going back and watching those games in specific, I think everyone would agree we looked a lot more like the "Cup winning" Blues vs. the new "Run and Gun" Blues from a playstyle point of view. We played a solid team game, with chipping and checking, followed by strong through-the-middle backchecking and defense. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I'd be willing to bet we gave up a lot less high danger chances during that stretch then we've given up at any point other then perhaps our opening hot streak.
Looking at straight up goalie stats in general Binnington actually has the 20th best HDSV% in the league (Husso is #1). He sees the 7th most High Danger Shots Against per 60 (Husso is 2nd) and he has the 4th highest xGA per game (Husso is first). Basically, our D has left our goalies out to dry all season. And yet, with all that said, Binner has given up only two extra goals against expected (This includes the shellacking from last night too). He basically has one of the hardest workloads in the league when he plays and yet he's still giving us a chance to win most nights.
The forwards are basically more of the same as I mentioned with the D. The top line results are there, but the underlying numbers are UGLY. Tarasenko, for example, starts in the offensive zone 65% of the time, yet is getting caved in from both an xGF% and High Danger Chance perspective. Barbashev is much the same. I could go on and on, but I think at this point you all get it.
TLDR: If we don't make some drastic changes to either our personnel, our usage, our style, or some combination of the three, we're not going far in the playoffs this year. It's fun to score goals from November through March, but unless we get back to the team concept we had before, we're going to get run out of the building against teams with better structure in the playoffs.
Edit - Parayko is 4th in ES TOI in the entire league, not just on our team. That's a lot of hard minutes!
Top line - I think our team is a paper tiger. Our 5v5 numbers are NOT pretty. We're basically a bad (Ranked 27th in xGF) 5v5 team that's getting carried by amazing special teams. I focus mainly on Corsi, xGF%, and High Danger Chances, although I'll sprinkle some other stats in as I go. I'll start with the D-men (All numbers 5v5 unless otherwise stated):
Not a single one of our top 4 D (or actually any of our D-men, except for Calle f***ing Rosen, who's played less then 90 minutes this year lol) has a positive xGF on the season. The only D-men with positive Corsi are Rosen, Walman, and Peru, with Krug an even 50%. Scoring Chances are all in the negative except Rosen, Peru, and Krug (50.31, not much to talk about there). Most damning of all though, is High Danger Chances. Every single D-man is below water on HDCF% with our best being....this is going to make you laugh - Marco Scandella at 45.98%. This is all individual, now on to more "pairing" analysis:
Many people point to Krug and Faulk as being our most solid pair, but I think they've been ass frankly. They have a negative xGF% even though they start in the offensive zone around 63% of the time. They give up High Danger Chances at an absurd rate for this usage and the only thing making them look respectable is the fact that somehow, someway, we've converted High Danger Chances at a 2-1 rate while they're on the ice, which is completely unsustainable. This, along with the INSANE sheltering we've done of Peru (around 90% offensive zone starts) has lead to some bonkers usage for Parayko and Mikkola - coming in at an approx. 22% offensive zone start amount. That's crazy, and what's almost more crazy is that even with those insane splits, Parayko, since he's been paired with Mikkola, is only barely behind Krug/Faulk from an xGF perspective. For comparison, when paired with Jay-Bo as our "shut-down pair" from 2018-2020, Parayko started around 44% offensive zone starts during the regular season, dipping slightly to 39% during our Cup run. We all talk about them as the shut down pair pretty often, yet they were still averaging almost TWENTY PERCENT higher offensive zone starts then Parayko gets now with Mikkola. Parayko is also 4th in ES TOI per game in the entire league. I've been hard on Parayko this year, but we've basically asked him to be Superman for the last two+ months and he's honestly answered the call more often then not.
Overall, we have given up the 4th most High Danger Chances in the League and we are second to last in team HDCF%. Last night on the telecast there was some stat called forechecking chances against - we were dead last (I'm assuming where a team forechecks against us and gets a scoring chance out of it). In short, our overall D has been atrocious. This dovetails nicely into the next topic, goaltending:
I've been a vocal Binny supporter before. The man was amazing on the way to our one and only Stanley Cup. I've said it before and I'll say it again, the save he made on Nordstrom is THE SAVE we've always needed and didn't get. That puck goes in and all of a sudden it's 2-1 with 11 minutes left, Boston is fired up, the crowd is fired up, and I don't want to think about what happens next. Instead, he makes that save and within THREE MINUTES we crush their spirits with our third goal. It's the kind of swing you always see in hockey, one team misses on a golden chance and then the other team comes down and puts in the dagger. For once, thanks to him, it was us applying the dagger.
I still think he's a good goalie. When I watch, I see the same guy from the last 3-4 years. He is never going to be the guy who wows you with athleticism or edgework - but he's about as positionally sound as they come. He's an EXCELLENT first shot goalie who will, "Make all the saves he's supposed to," plus maybe a few he has no business of making, especially if you keep teams to the outside. When he came up, this is how the Blues were playing - great middle ice D, clogging up the lanes, forwards backchecking like crazy. Thing is, we don't play that way anymore. Long gone is the chip/chase/check of the 2018-2020 (At least until COVID shut us down) Blues. We play way looser with the puck then we used to - count how many times a game Kyrou or Thomas (As well as others, but those two are the most blatant about it) try to 1v3 at the opponent's blue-line only to cough the puck up and have the play transition quickly down the other way. It's no surprise we give up so many High Danger Chances - our puck management mentality has completely changed. Looking at all seven (ick) goals from last night, the only one he really had a chance on was the 1st one, and that was wired off the corner L of the post from what most in hockey would call the "Home Plate" area (Between the circles).
I know it seems crazy since all of our other goalies have better numbers, but the funny thing is - when Binny was out, we played a much better team game overall, thanks to the contributions of our TBird boys. Some of our highest Corsi and xGF players are guys like Walker, Joshua, and Brown. The only "Regular" forward with a positive xGF on the year is Buch. Going back and watching those games in specific, I think everyone would agree we looked a lot more like the "Cup winning" Blues vs. the new "Run and Gun" Blues from a playstyle point of view. We played a solid team game, with chipping and checking, followed by strong through-the-middle backchecking and defense. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I'd be willing to bet we gave up a lot less high danger chances during that stretch then we've given up at any point other then perhaps our opening hot streak.
Looking at straight up goalie stats in general Binnington actually has the 20th best HDSV% in the league (Husso is #1). He sees the 7th most High Danger Shots Against per 60 (Husso is 2nd) and he has the 4th highest xGA per game (Husso is first). Basically, our D has left our goalies out to dry all season. And yet, with all that said, Binner has given up only two extra goals against expected (This includes the shellacking from last night too). He basically has one of the hardest workloads in the league when he plays and yet he's still giving us a chance to win most nights.
The forwards are basically more of the same as I mentioned with the D. The top line results are there, but the underlying numbers are UGLY. Tarasenko, for example, starts in the offensive zone 65% of the time, yet is getting caved in from both an xGF% and High Danger Chance perspective. Barbashev is much the same. I could go on and on, but I think at this point you all get it.
TLDR: If we don't make some drastic changes to either our personnel, our usage, our style, or some combination of the three, we're not going far in the playoffs this year. It's fun to score goals from November through March, but unless we get back to the team concept we had before, we're going to get run out of the building against teams with better structure in the playoffs.
Edit - Parayko is 4th in ES TOI in the entire league, not just on our team. That's a lot of hard minutes!
Last edited:
bleedblue1223
Registered User
- Jan 21, 2011
- 52,909
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Yeah, I'd agree that currently we are more of a paper tiger than not. Our defense needs serious improvements, and I'm not quite sure how we fully accomplish that. Yes, we need to upgrade LD, but I don't think it's quite as simple as it was when we acquired Bouwmeester to plug in with Petro. Sure, acquire Chychrun in a best case scenario, but I don't think we know how to most effectively deploy the group we have, even with Chychrun added in. Then there is the forward group on defensive responsibilities. We have really gone away from our identity, which is probably a good thing as we are now more suited to play offensive based on our personnel, but we don't want to fall into the trap that offensive teams get in, and ignore the defensive responsibilities we need from our forwards.
- Jul 4, 2014
- 8,049
- 8,652
I really don't think our forwards get enough of the blame for our defensive woes. Our defensive execution has been poor this season, and I feel like we've gotten away from our structural identity of funneling play to the outside, but there are just too many situations where we're losing puck battles in our end and not tying up the sticks of second layer attackers. The eye test tells me that we've basically been rolling out the red carpet for the home plate area, and it is primarily our forwards, not just our D, who have been guilty of not being able to make a good first pass to exit the zone. Our opponents just get way too many second and third chances at offensive zone possession. I think the coaching staff has a golden opportunity with the break we have coming up early next month to re-evaluate their system and improve our approach and our execution going into the last 40% of the season.
bleedblue1223
Registered User
- Jan 21, 2011
- 52,909
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I deleted an earlier post, but I basically stopped watching last night after the 3rd goal, where we had an odd man rush on the PK, which is dangerous for a lot of reasons, and Thomas goes with a risky pass behind Buch that got easily intercepted and they get an odd man rush the other way and an easy goal where Binny had no chance. Yes, it's 3 games in 4 nights, but those are the little things you can't have happen. Gotta keep things simple in back to backs and 3 in 4s.
Brian39
Registered User
- Apr 24, 2014
- 7,574
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I wish I had stopped after the 3rd goal. I watched all 7 before throwing in the towel.
joe galiba
Registered User
- Apr 16, 2020
- 2,164
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when shots were 4 to 15, I told myself I am not watch this crap again and switched to something elseI wish I had stopped after the 3rd goal. I watched all 7 before throwing in the towel.
Brian39
Registered User
- Apr 24, 2014
- 7,574
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I probably would have done the same if I hadn't already watched a lot of "something else." I'm in COVID isolation and am basically just holed up watching TV in the guest bedroom in an effort not to pass it to my partner. But I chose sleep for the 3rd period.
Linkens Mastery
Conductor of the TankTown Express
- Jul 4, 2014
- 8,049
- 8,652
Linkens Mastery
Conductor of the TankTown Express
- Jul 4, 2014
- 8,049
- 8,652
Linkens Mastery
Conductor of the TankTown Express
Celtic Note
Living the dream
- Dec 22, 2006
- 17,316
- 6,286
We should do a set of polls on Valentines Day: Heartthrobs and Scapegoats
Everyone can express their proclivities.
Everyone can express their proclivities.
Linkens Mastery
Conductor of the TankTown Express
Brian39
Registered User
- Apr 24, 2014
- 7,574
- 14,233
Scandella is a decent looking dude, right? Could he win both categories and possibly up his trade value?
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