NHL Entry Draft 2020 NHL Draft Discussion - PART IV

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OgieO

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I am glad that guy (who does a pretty good job on these videos) mentioned his partner. Jack Duff is not particularly good (relative to other top pair Ds in the OHL). I think his lack of offensive ability hurt Drysdale in terms of production/stats. I actually think Drysdale could be underrated a bit if anything. He's very good imo, if we drop to 5 or 6 with one of our picks and take him we'd be getting a great player. Not a bad "consolation prize" if we fall.
 

Burrowsaurus

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What stands out to me the most in this highlight is his patience. He has the awareness of how much time and space he has and that the opposition and the goalies are over committing. He takes that extra second to pick/time his shots and his passes. It is a good indication of his poise and patience and possibly even his hockey iq. That ability could make him a very successful NHL player.
you HAVE that extra second in junior though. in the NHL you dont,.
 

ijif

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"Amirov’s strong in so many categories related to both sides of the rink, he’d likely be in the running for the top three of the 2020 draft had he been given more attention; especially after the way he torched the MHL in the second half. "

I am not so sure about the above quote.

For general reference, last year in the first round, the average NHLe score for forwards was 30. In 2015, it was 32. Amirov's NHLe score is 33, so he is a solid first-round pick in any draft; however, he is also a late birthday, so let's compare Russians under the same development year. If a player is a non-late birthday, I will use NLB to denote that fact, and I will use the players DY + 1 year:


Amirov - 33 (MHL)
Panarin - 37 (MHL: Undrafted LMAO)
Kucherov - 54 (MHL - NLB)
Kuznetsov - 61 (KHL - NLB)
Tarasenko - 48 (KHL)
Malkin - 52 (KHL - NLB)
Ovechkin - 37 (KHL)
Radulov - 25 (QMHJL - NLB)
Dorofeyev - 44 (MHL)
Kaprizov - 43 (KHL - NLB)

He is clearly a notch below the star Russian players in the league right now. I don't really see any evidence or logic behind the claim he could be pushing top 3 if people paid more attention. That claim sounds more like someone overrating their eye-test.
 
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Sens72

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Another FS Mock Draft:

2. F Quinton Byfield - Sudbury, OHL
3. F Alexander Holtz - Djugardens IF, SHL
15. F Rodion Amirov - Salavat Yulaev, KHL
33. D William Villeneuve - Saint John, QMJHL
49. F Brett Berard - USNTDP U18, USHL
50. D Anton Johannesson - HV71 J20, SuperElit
53. F Emil Heineman - Leksands IF J20, SuperElit
64. F Jaromir Pytlik - Sault Ste. Marie, OHL
79. F Grant Slukynsky - Warroad High, USHS (Committed to Northern Michigan Univ.)
95. F Trevor Kuntar - Youngstown, USHL (Committed to Havard Univ.)
152. F Luke Evangelista - London, OHL
158. F Simon Knak - Portland, WHL
185. F Isak Garfve - Mora IK, Allsvenskan
 

MatchesMalone

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"Amirov’s strong in so many categories related to both sides of the rink, he’d likely be in the running for the top three of the 2020 draft had he been given more attention; especially after the way he torched the MHL in the second half. "

I am not so sure about the above quote.

For general reference, last year in the first round, the average NHLe score for forwards was 30. In 2015, it was 32. Amirov's NHLe score is 33, so he is a solid first-round pick in any draft; however, he is also a late birthday, so let's compare Russians under the same development year. If a player is a non-late birthday, I will use NLB to denote that fact, and I will use the players DY + 1 year:


Amirov - 33 (MHL)
Panarin - 37 (MHL: Undrafted LMAO)
Kucherov - 54 (MHL - NLB)
Kuznetsov - 61 (KHL - NLB)
Tarasenko - 48 (KHL)
Malkin - 52 (KHL - NLB)
Ovechkin - 37 (KHL)
Radulov - 25 (QMHJL - NLB)
Dorofeyev - 44 (MHL)
Kaprizov - 43 (KHL - NLB)

He is clearly a notch below the star Russian players in the league right now. I don't really see any evidence or logic behind the claim he could be pushing top 3 if people paid more attention. That claim sounds more like someone overrating their eye-test.

My only quarrel with you here is that Kournianos specified that Amirov's strength lies in how many different categories related to both sides of the rink he excels in, and your response was based on offensive output. I'm a huge Amirov fan so my first reaction to your post was vehement disagreement, but after reading it over again, yeah I guess with the possible exceptions of Dorofeyev and Kaprizov, that's some pretty big shoes to fill. But compared to guys like Panarin or Kucherov who had significant risk factors, Amirov's greatest strengths are his 200 foot acumen and his pro style game.

People over-rating their own eye test may be part of it, but I suspect part of the problem is, folks like Kournianos and myself watch these players like Raymond and Amirov play a lot and see how badly they're being under-rated by the average fan (especially the simple stat-watchers), and perhaps there's an element of over-correction going on. People need to understand, if these guys are 17 or 18 and <170 lbs playing in two of the top three leagues in the world but not producing, there are clearly other reasons they're there.

I definitely agree that Kournianos went a bit overboard with the top three comment, but I have Amirov ranked 11th, and I think it wouldn't be a stretch for him to go as high as ~7. I see rough comparables in Henrik Zetterberg, Patrick Sharp and Justin Williams. With his 200 foot game, and how good he is in tight spaces below the hashmarks, this is the kind of player you win championships with. I make the comparison to Williams partly because Amirov has a reputation for being clutch, but it's also about what makes them so clutch - as things tighten up in important games they have the ability to make plays with limited time and space between sticks and feet.
 

ijif

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My only quarrel with you here is that Kournianos specified that Amirov's strength lies in how many different categories related to both sides of the rink he excels in, and your response was based on offensive output. I'm a huge Amirov fan so my first reaction to your post was vehement disagreement, but after reading it over again, yeah I guess with the possible exceptions of Dorofeyev and Kaprizov, that's some pretty big shoes to fill. But compared to guys like Panarin or Kucherov who had significant risk factors, Amirov's greatest strengths are his 200 foot acumen and his pro style game.

People over-rating their own eye test may be part of it, but I suspect part of the problem is, folks like Kournianos and myself watch these players like Raymond and Amirov play a lot and see how badly they're being under-rated by the average fan (especially the simple stat-watchers), and perhaps there's an element of over-correction going on. People need to understand, if these guys are 17 or 18 and <170 lbs playing in two of the top three leagues in the world but not producing, there are clearly other reasons they're there.

I definitely agree that Kournianos went a bit overboard with the top three comment, but I have Amirov ranked 11th, and I think it wouldn't be a stretch for him to go as high as ~7. I see rough comparables in Henrik Zetterberg, Patrick Sharp and Justin Williams. With his 200 foot game, and how good he is in tight spaces below the hashmarks, this is the kind of player you win championships with. I make the comparison to Williams partly because Amirov has a reputation for being clutch, but it's also about what makes them so clutch - as things tighten up in important games they have the ability to make plays with limited time and space between sticks and feet.

Sure, he mentioned the all-around ability of Amirov; however, being an elite producer is a big part of being picked top 3, and Amirov does not have that elite level of production. Anyway, we both agree the statement was a little bit too much.

This is my first year watching all the prospects play, trying to make a list based on equal amounts eye-test and statistics, so I do not have a reference for the risk factors you are mentioning. I am assuming they boil down to Russian, small, and winger. I would say putting up elite production should allow one to take that risk, and that is why I included Dorofeyev. We have no idea how good he will become, but with the second-best NHLe score in the draft, we should have been taking him with our first pick in round 2. I can see not taking him with our first due to market value. In other words, the odds are no one was going to take him in round one, but once you get to the second round, it is too risky to miss out on him.

To move from stats, I have watched Amirov in every league he has played in this year. I see the strong mobility, the ability to play down low, and the transitional ability. My biggest concern is what is the upside? I think he will settle in as a nice two-way T-6 winger. I like the Sharp comparison. As I said, this is my first year really trying to mix eye-test and stats to get a list I can really stand behind with a lot of confidence, so I am still tinkering with the list as I watch more games and think about things a little more, but right now I have Amirov at #10, but I don't think he will move higher than #9 on my list. I could be convinced he is a superior prospect to Lundell.

What do you mean by Raymond being underrated? I have not looked at too many mocks or draft rankings, but I see almost everyone on this board has him as a top 5 forward. I would not call that underrated, but again, you might be thinking of different sources than me.
 

MatchesMalone

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Sure, he mentioned the all-around ability of Amirov; however, being an elite producer is a big part of being picked top 3, and Amirov does not have that elite level of production. Anyway, we both agree the statement was a little bit too much.

This is my first year watching all the prospects play, trying to make a list based on equal amounts eye-test and statistics, so I do not have a reference for the risk factors you are mentioning. I am assuming they boil down to Russian, small, and winger. I would say putting up elite production should allow one to take that risk, and that is why I included Dorofeyev. We have no idea how good he will become, but with the second-best NHLe score in the draft, we should have been taking him with our first pick in round 2. I can see not taking him with our first due to market value. In other words, the odds are no one was going to take him in round one, but once you get to the second round, it is too risky to miss out on him.

To move from stats, I have watched Amirov in every league he has played in this year. I see the strong mobility, the ability to play down low, and the transitional ability. My biggest concern is what is the upside? I think he will settle in as a nice two-way T-6 winger. I like the Sharp comparison. As I said, this is my first year really trying to mix eye-test and stats to get a list I can really stand behind with a lot of confidence, so I am still tinkering with the list as I watch more games and think about things a little more, but right now I have Amirov at #10, but I don't think he will move higher than #9 on my list. I could be convinced he is a superior prospect to Lundell.

What do you mean by Raymond being underrated? I have not looked at too many mocks or draft rankings, but I see almost everyone on this board has him as a top 5 forward. I would not call that underrated, but again, you might be thinking of different sources than me.

Oh I completely agree about Amirov. The way I look at it is he and Lundell are kind of the other side of the equation to guys like Stranges or Foudy. Probably not going to be elite offensive producers, but safe picks to be impact NHL players.

But I do think there is some room for high end offensive upside in Amirov. Sometimes players don't put up crazy numbers at lower levels, but are able to do good numbers in the NHL. Amirov reminds me a bit of some of those players - Duchene, Sharp, Justin Williams. They just play a style of game that is best suited to the NHL level.

I probably exaggerated a bit on Raymond, but I've just seen a lot of questions raised about his SHL performance throughout the year. I've seen a couple rankings have him as low as 9 (interestingly enough, one was Kournianos). I'm just so high on the kid that anything outside the top five seems absurd to me. I have him ranked as high as second and as low as fourth. The player he reminds me of most is Ray Whitney (maybe mostly cus both are right shots who like to play the left side) but I could see his ceilling being as high as a Paul Kariya, Ziggy Palffy or Mitch Marner.
 

ReginKarlssonLehner

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I am glad that guy (who does a pretty good job on these videos) mentioned his partner. Jack Duff is not particularly good (relative to other top pair Ds in the OHL). I think his lack of offensive ability hurt Drysdale in terms of production/stats. I actually think Drysdale could be underrated a bit if anything. He's very good imo, if we drop to 5 or 6 with one of our picks and take him we'd be getting a great player. Not a bad "consolation prize" if we fall.

Yup, agreed. Plus, his currently production this year outstanding anyway, its on pace with all the big time star defenders in their draft year.
 

Burrowsaurus

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Oh I completely agree about Amirov. The way I look at it is he and Lundell are kind of the other side of the equation to guys like Stranges or Foudy. Probably not going to be elite offensive producers, but safe picks to be impact NHL players.

But I do think there is some room for high end offensive upside in Amirov. Sometimes players don't put up crazy numbers at lower levels, but are able to do good numbers in the NHL. Amirov reminds me a bit of some of those players - Duchene, Sharp, Justin Williams. They just play a style of game that is best suited to the NHL level.

I probably exaggerated a bit on Raymond, but I've just seen a lot of questions raised about his SHL performance throughout the year. I've seen a couple rankings have him as low as 9 (interestingly enough, one was Kournianos). I'm just so high on the kid that anything outside the top five seems absurd to me. I have him ranked as high as second and as low as fourth. The player he reminds me of most is Ray Whitney (maybe mostly cus both are right shots who like to play the left side) but I could see his ceilling being as high as a Paul Kariya, Ziggy Palffy or Mitch Marner.
Maybe I misunderstood but I think lundell and amirov have way higher ceilings than either foudy or stranges.

if amirov is there at the islanders pick I would be ecstatic with ecstatic
 

MatchesMalone

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Maybe I misunderstood but I think lundell and amirov have way higher ceilings than either foudy or stranges.

if amirov is there at the islanders pick I would be ecstatic with ecstatic

Well you're certainly entitled to your opinion. I know a lot of people aren't big on Stranges, and it's unfortunate that the last time you saw him he wasn't on his game. I'd highly recommend checking out his games on ProspectShifts.com. I know at least one of them is "unlocked". For me, Stranges has one of the highest ceillings in the draft. My highest upsides for the 2020 draft: Lafreniere, Byfield, Raymond, Perfetti, Stranges, Khustnutdinov.
 

DrSense

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Maybe I misunderstood but I think lundell and amirov have way higher ceilings than either foudy or stranges.

if amirov is there at the islanders pick I would be ecstatic with ecstatic

Yeah, I'm confused about people questioning Amirov's upside. He is one of Russia's best prospects to come along in a while, and his production in the MHL as a draft eligible is tremendous - the best in many years actually. Way better than guys like Podkolzin and Denisenko in their draft years, who are both considered among the top 10 prospects in the world now (latest THN future watch). I get that he is a late '01, but Amirov's dominance at last year's U18 is also a major eye opener considering he was on the same team as Podkolzin and amongst the leading scorers in the tourney and clearly Russia's top forward among many '19 eligible draftees.

I would not be surprised to see him taken in the top 10, so if we get him with the Isles pick, I'd be over the moon. He is the one of the few players outside of the top 10 with truly elite upside (Jarvis, Quinn, Gunler, Zary and perhaps Mysak and Savoie a few of the others). I love swinging for the fences with the Isles pick, because we'll likely be in very good shape after the top 2 picks given most of the top 10 are safe bets to be good pros at least, and we have a slew of other picks for long term depth and role players.

As a franchise, we need some high upside prospects more than anything. While guys like Tkachuk, Norris, Brown and Batherson have scoring line upside, I'm not sure any will be a truly elite NHL scorer (top 20 in league kind of thing). Shooting for the moon and grabbing a future Panarin or Kucherov in Amirov works for me.
 

MatchesMalone

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Yeah, I'm confused about people questioning Amirov's upside. He is one of Russia's best prospects to come along in a while, and his production in the MHL as a draft eligible is tremendous - the best in many years actually. Way better than guys like Podkolzin and Denisenko in their draft years, who are both considered among the top 10 prospects in the world now (latest THN future watch). I get that he is a late '01, but Amirov's dominance at last year's U18 is also a major eye opener considering he was on the same team as Podkolzin and amongst the leading scorers in the tourney and clearly Russia's top forward among many '19 eligible draftees.

I would not be surprised to see him taken in the top 10, so if we get him with the Isles pick, I'd be over the moon. He is the one of the few players outside of the top 10 with truly elite upside (Jarvis, Quinn, Gunler, Zary and perhaps Mysak and Savoie a few of the others). I love swinging for the fences with the Isles pick, because we'll likely be in very good shape after the top 2 picks given most of the top 10 are safe bets to be good pros at least, and we have a slew of other picks for long term depth and role players.

As a franchise, we need some high upside prospects more than anything. While guys like Tkachuk, Norris, Brown and Batherson have scoring line upside, I'm not sure any will be a truly elite NHL scorer (top 20 in league kind of thing). Shooting for the moon and grabbing a future Panarin or Kucherov in Amirov works for me.

What is happening...
 

ijif

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Yeah, I'm confused about people questioning Amirov's upside. He is one of Russia's best prospects to come along in a while, and his production in the MHL as a draft eligible is tremendous - the best in many years actually. Way better than guys like Podkolzin and Denisenko in their draft years, who are both considered among the top 10 prospects in the world now (latest THN future watch). I get that he is a late '01, but Amirov's dominance at last year's U18 is also a major eye opener considering he was on the same team as Podkolzin and amongst the leading scorers in the tourney and clearly Russia's top forward among many '19 eligible draftees.

I would not be surprised to see him taken in the top 10, so if we get him with the Isles pick, I'd be over the moon. He is the one of the few players outside of the top 10 with truly elite upside (Jarvis, Quinn, Gunler, Zary and perhaps Mysak and Savoie a few of the others). I love swinging for the fences with the Isles pick, because we'll likely be in very good shape after the top 2 picks given most of the top 10 are safe bets to be good pros at least, and we have a slew of other picks for long term depth and role players.

As a franchise, we need some high upside prospects more than anything. While guys like Tkachuk, Norris, Brown and Batherson have scoring line upside, I'm not sure any will be a truly elite NHL scorer (top 20 in league kind of thing). Shooting for the moon and grabbing a future Panarin or Kucherov in Amirov works for me.

His MHL production is not the best in many years. A player in last years draft outscored him by a wide margin.
Amriov had 22 points in 17 MHL games this year.
Dorofeyev had 31 points in 19 MHL games last year.

Both players are late birthdays. I like Amirov, but your claim is false.
 

Icelevel

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Nice little breakdown on Jack Quinn as potentially the best goal scorer in the draft.


Unrefined skills is what I see. Can he work on all that? Sure ok he’s just a kid. But I’m not sold on him yet. Depending on who else is around at that point probably not a bad pick though.
 

DrSense

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His MHL production is not the best in many years. A player in last years draft outscored him by a wide margin.
Amriov had 22 points in 17 MHL games this year.
Dorofeyev had 31 points in 19 MHL games last year.

Both players are late birthdays. I like Amirov, but your claim is false.

Good catch with Dorofeyev. I was only comparing the top ranked Russian forwards in the last few years (top 50, basically) so missed him. An unheraled (and underrated) guy.

Framed slightly differently - but with the same point - Amirov's offensive production points to a high offensive ceiling, as he has been more productive than any of the other top Russian draft eligible in the MHL over the last several years.
 

Agent Zuuuub

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Nice little breakdown on Jack Quinn as potentially the best goal scorer in the draft.



So much of his points seem to come from plays that would never work in the NHL consistently. Obviously a very skilled player but even the worst NHLers are able to stop one on ones on a consistent basis. now add that Quinn is not a tremendously fast/explosive skater so that even if he beats a guy with his hands hell struggle to create the separation as there will be two other guys breathing down his neck.

I see the upside but i also see how his game could be neutered at the next level pretty easily.
 
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bert

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So much of his points seem to come from plays that would never work in the NHL consistently. Obviously a very skilled player but even the worst NHLers are able to stop one on ones on a consistent basis. now add that Quinn is not a tremendously fast/explosive skater so that even if he beats a guy with his hands hell struggle to create the separation as there will be two other guys breathing down his neck.

I see the upside but i also see how his game could be neutered at the next level pretty easily.

No offense but I highly doubt you have watched Jack Quinn play very often if this is your breakdown. His shot is NHL ready. I am curious do you believe the way Rossi scores would translate to the NHL? Quinn is a terrific skater.... Great top end speed and elusivness, his edgework is elite. You truly arent familiar with the player with that breakdown you can watch full games online if you want to get a more accurate account of his strenghts and weakness's.

His game is very similar to Marners but he is more goal scoring centric rather than play maker but he can do both just depends on the situation he is in. Really strong two way play, great pker and forchecker. Marner also made players look silly in the OHL on moves that wont work in the NHL, its just a sign of an elite player.

Secondly I assume you are basing this off this video exclusively? He has over 50 goals they showed around 10 of his goals here...
 
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Agent Zuuuub

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No offense but I highly doubt you have watched Jack Quinn play very often if this is your breakdown. His shot is NHL ready. I am curious do you believe the way Rossi scores would translate to the NHL? Quinn is a terrific skater.... Great top end speed and elusivness, his edgework is elite. You truly arent familiar with the player.

His skating is good for juniors but for the NHL level its going to be hard when almost everyone is a good skater and bigger. I think Rossi's game translates better as he utilizes his vision a lot more than his ability to beat players one on one. Almost no player aside from McDavid can consistently beat players one on one in the NHL. So a player who is undersized and a non elite skater is gonna run into a ton of problems trying to convert that skill from juniors.

Not that I think he is a one trick pony. I do agree that Quinn has a good shot as well as good goal scoring instincts but those alone don't make for good goalscorers at the NHL level.
 
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Agent Zuuuub

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No offense but I highly doubt you have watched Jack Quinn play very often if this is your breakdown. His shot is NHL ready. I am curious do you believe the way Rossi scores would translate to the NHL? Quinn is a terrific skater.... Great top end speed and elusivness, his edgework is elite. You truly arent familiar with the player with that breakdown you can watch full games online if you want to get a more accurate account of his strenghts and weakness's.

His game is very similar to Marners but he is more goal scoring centric rather than play maker but he can do both just depends on the situation he is in. Really strong two way play, great pker and forchecker. Marner also made players look silly in the OHL on moves that wont work in the NHL, its just a sign of an elite player.

Secondly I assume you are basing this off this video exclusively? He has over 50 goals they showed around 10 of his goals here...

Marner was a better skater + puck handler imo and more importantly way better vision + hockey IQ, i don't think they are similar players at all. I think someone like Jeff Skinner would be a better comparable. and i have watched a couple 67 games, not a ton admittedly. I do agree with him being a strong two way player and forechecker, he is remarkably tenacious and has decent poise around the net.
 
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apadilla

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Hi, Kings fan here. Thanks to our 7 game winning streak, you slipped into spots 2 and 3. Congrats! I was wondering if you think your team will try and pick a forward and a defenseman with the two picks. Your thoughts.
 

ijif

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Dec 20, 2018
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Hi, Kings fan here. Thanks to our 7 game winning streak, you slipped into spots 2 and 3. Congrats! I was wondering if you think your team will try and pick a forward and a defenseman with the two picks. Your thoughts.

I think most people here want two forwards, but we are happy with Drysdale if he is BPA
 

DrSense

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Amirov's production compared to other 18YR old or younger MHLers since the lockout isn't all that impressive: Elite Prospects - MHL Stats All-time season

Same goes for his 17YR old production: Elite Prospects - MHL Stats All-time season

If he's a top 10 or 15 prospect in this year's draft, it's because the eye test says so, and not because his production has been elite for MHLers at the same age.

That was kind of lazy, no? You took the MHL alltime leaders and through them all together going back 10 years, but didn't even get rid of guys already drafted like Podkolzin in the given year or guys with just a few games. To be honest, the fact his production is in the top 20 all-time of players with more than 10 games played, and despite including some older players in there, further validates the point. And I wasn't saying it was historic, but rather the best production in many years for one of the top Russian draft eligibles. And it was.

But perhaps it not enough respect for the MHL here. It's a hard league to score in - certainly more challenging than the CHL we've seen over time (also might be due to the way Russian's don't throw 2nd assists around). In terms of relative league production, his production in the MHL is absolutely comparable to top 15 talent, and even top 10.

Looking at Amirov another way, when he played head to hear against the draft's best at the U18's last year, he outproduced Raymond, Holtz, Zary, Lundell, Holloway, Mysak and many other '20 eligibles at the U18's last year - most by a major clip. And keep in mind this is where Holtz and Raymond were put up on pedestals for their relative performances. Amirov out produced both. He has offensive chops, to be sure.
 

MatchesMalone

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Aug 29, 2010
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That was kind of lazy, no? You took the MHL alltime leaders and through them all together going back 10 years, but didn't even get rid of guys already drafted like Podkolzin in the given year or guys with just a few games. To be honest, the fact his production is in the top 20 all-time of players with more than 10 games played, and despite including some older players in there, further validates the point. And I wasn't saying it was historic, but rather the best production in many years for one of the top Russian draft eligibles. And it was.

But perhaps it not enough respect for the MHL here. It's a hard league to score in - certainly more challenging than the CHL we've seen over time (also might be due to the way Russian's don't throw 2nd assists around). In terms of relative league production, his production in the MHL is absolutely comparable to top 15 talent, and even top 10.

Looking at Amirov another way, when he played head to hear against the draft's best at the U18's last year, he outproduced Raymond, Holtz, Zary, Lundell, Holloway, Mysak and many other '20 eligibles at the U18's last year - most by a major clip. And keep in mind this is where Holtz and Raymond were put up on pedestals for their relative performances. Amirov out produced both. He has offensive chops, to be sure.

Yup. Top 10 or 15 most definitely. But as The Analytic pointed out, Amirov's production is not on the level of superstars like Tarasenko, Kucherov, Panarin, etc at the same age.

And keep in mind that while Raymond and Holtz are only a few months younger than Amirov, they are a full hockey year behind.
 
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